S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.YUM · -0.67% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-0.67%

Top down rate59.8%

Top P25-2.66%

DOE score2.705

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.YUM Yum! Brands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.67%

P25-2.66% Down59.8% Dn/Up57% / 5% Score60.4 DownOpp1.366

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#2 US.NKE Nike, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.68%

P25-2.73% Down59.6% Dn/Up58.6% / 6% Score62.1 DownOpp1.305

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#3 US.DHI D. R. Horton · Consumer Discretionary

-0.67%

P25-2.78% Down59% Dn/Up59.8% / 5.2% Score68 DownOpp1.263

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#4 US.LVS Las Vegas Sands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.65%

P25-2.51% Down59.4% Dn/Up56.8% / 5.6% Score61 DownOpp1.236

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#5 US.AZO AutoZone · Consumer Discretionary

-0.60%

P25-2.70% Down58.4% Dn/Up57.6% / 5.6% Score52.3 DownOpp1.219

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#6 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.68%

P25-2.76% Down58.6% Dn/Up58.8% / 6.2% Score62.5 DownOpp1.217

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#7 US.GRMN Garmin · Consumer Discretionary

-0.62%

P25-2.65% Down58.2% Dn/Up57% / 5.4% Score57.7 DownOpp1.182

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#8 US.LEN Lennar · Consumer Discretionary

-0.65%

P25-2.77% Down58.4% Dn/Up59.4% / 5.6% Score67.3 DownOpp1.174

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#9 US.BKNG Booking Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.63%

P25-2.69% Down58.6% Dn/Up57.4% / 6.8% Score57.3 DownOpp1.153

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#10 US.TSCO Tractor Supply · Consumer Discretionary

-0.71%

P25-2.95% Down58.8% Dn/Up510.6% / 8.6% Score64.9 DownOpp1.149

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#11 US.PHM PulteGroup · Consumer Discretionary

-0.67%

P25-2.66% Down57.6% Dn/Up59% / 5% Score67.6 DownOpp1.136

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#12 US.AVY Avery Dennison · Materials

-0.71%

P25-2.62% Down57% Dn/Up57.4% / 4.6% Score68.9 DownOpp1.132

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#13 US.SBUX Starbucks · Consumer Discretionary

-0.65%

P25-2.75% Down58% Dn/Up59.2% / 6% Score65.5 DownOpp1.126

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#14 US.WYNN Wynn Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-0.65%

P25-2.80% Down57% Dn/Up511.2% / 6.6% Score62.3 DownOpp1.047

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#15 US.LULU Lululemon Athletica · Consumer Discretionary

-0.76%

P25-2.95% Down57.8% Dn/Up510% / 11.2% Score54.1 DownOpp1.044

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#16 US.NVR NVR, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.62%

P25-2.70% Down57.2% Dn/Up59.4% / 5.8% Score65.7 DownOpp1.03

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#17 US.PPL PPL Corporation · Utilities

-0.46%

P25-2.26% Down56.8% Dn/Up53.6% / 0.6% Score68.7 DownOpp1.018

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#18 US.AWK American Water Works · Utilities

-0.47%

P25-2.30% Down57.6% Dn/Up54.6% / 2% Score70 DownOpp1.008

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#19 US.TMUS T-Mobile US · Communication Services

-0.68%

P25-2.52% Down58.6% Dn/Up511% / 9% Score66.3 DownOpp0.961

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#20 US.BDX Becton Dickinson · Health Care

-0.55%

P25-2.44% Down56.6% Dn/Up56.6% / 6% Score58.2 DownOpp0.892

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#21 US.LOW Lowe's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.51%

P25-2.63% Down56.4% Dn/Up59% / 5.4% Score66.2 DownOpp0.859

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#22 US.CRH CRH plc · Materials

-0.46%

P25-2.21% Down56.4% Dn/Up54.6% / 4.2% Score65 DownOpp0.785

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#23 US.CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill · Consumer Discretionary

-0.68%

P25-3.02% Down56.6% Dn/Up513.2% / 11.6% Score66.3 DownOpp0.77

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#24 US.AMZN Amazon · Consumer Discretionary

-0.50%

P25-2.48% Down56.8% Dn/Up57.6% / 8.8% Score52.6 DownOpp0.741

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#25 US.VMC Vulcan Materials Company · Materials

-0.38%

P25-2.28% Down55.8% Dn/Up54.4% / 3.2% Score65.9 DownOpp0.728

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#26 US.SHW Sherwin-Williams · Materials

-0.42%

P25-2.49% Down56.2% Dn/Up57.6% / 4.6% Score72.8 DownOpp0.717

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#27 US.MLM Martin Marietta Materials · Materials

-0.45%

P25-2.22% Down56% Dn/Up54.6% / 5% Score63.4 DownOpp0.71

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#28 US.GPC Genuine Parts Company · Consumer Discretionary

-0.58%

P25-2.23% Down58.2% Dn/Up57.4% / 7.8% Score82.5 DownOpp0.707

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#29 US.WEC WEC Energy Group · Utilities

-0.28%

P25-2.20% Down55.2% Dn/Up53% / 0.6% Score68 DownOpp0.7

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#30 US.ORLY O’Reilly Automotive · Consumer Discretionary

-0.45%

P25-2.52% Down55.6% Dn/Up58.8% / 5.4% Score67.6 DownOpp0.697

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#31 US.HD Home Depot (The) · Consumer Discretionary

-0.51%

P25-2.42% Down57.4% Dn/Up59.4% / 7% Score78.8 DownOpp0.696

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#32 US.BALL Ball Corporation · Materials

-0.45%

P25-2.52% Down55.4% Dn/Up57.2% / 5.2% Score69 DownOpp0.683

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#33 US.DHR Danaher Corporation · Health Care

-0.44%

P25-2.38% Down55.4% Dn/Up56% / 6% Score59.7 DownOpp0.659

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#34 US.EXPE Expedia Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.45%

P25-2.64% Down55.4% Dn/Up59% / 8.8% Score58.8 DownOpp0.573

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#35 US.AEP American Electric Power · Utilities

-0.23%

P25-2.08% Down54.2% Dn/Up52.4% / 0.6% Score66.3 DownOpp0.553

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#36 US.TSLA Tesla, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.57%

P25-3.00% Down55.4% Dn/Up514% / 12.2% Score63.5 DownOpp0.544

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#37 US.TKO TKO Group Holdings · Communication Services

-0.43%

P25-2.31% Down56.6% Dn/Up59.4% / 8.2% Score67.8 DownOpp0.535

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#38 US.CMS CMS Energy · Utilities

-0.21%

P25-2.15% Down53.6% Dn/Up53% / 0.4% Score66 DownOpp0.517

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#39 US.TPR Tapestry, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.45%

P25-2.51% Down55.6% Dn/Up510.2% / 6.6% Score81.9 DownOpp0.515

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#40 US.FE FirstEnergy · Utilities

-0.19%

P25-2.15% Down53.4% Dn/Up52.8% / 0.4% Score65.1 DownOpp0.487

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#41 US.BMY Bristol Myers Squibb · Health Care

-0.27%

P25-2.38% Down54.2% Dn/Up56.2% / 5.6% Score55.4 DownOpp0.45

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#42 US.APD Air Products · Materials

-0.40%

P25-2.28% Down54.4% Dn/Up55.4% / 7.6% Score57.8 DownOpp0.432

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#43 US.MOS Mosaic Company (The) · Materials

-0.46%

P25-2.92% Down53.6% Dn/Up512.8% / 9.8% Score64.3 DownOpp0.408

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#44 US.ELV Elevance Health · Health Care

-0.30%

P25-2.36% Down54% Dn/Up56.6% / 6.6% Score56.6 DownOpp0.39

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#45 US.CHTR Charter Communications · Communication Services

-0.47%

P25-3.19% Down55% Dn/Up513.4% / 12.4% Score72.1 DownOpp0.383

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#46 US.ECL Ecolab · Materials

-0.24%

P25-2.19% Down54.6% Dn/Up56.6% / 4.4% Score69 DownOpp0.374

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#47 US.HAS Hasbro · Consumer Discretionary

-0.30%

P25-2.56% Down54.4% Dn/Up55.8% / 9.4% Score47.8 DownOpp0.369

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#48 US.STE Steris · Health Care

-0.26%

P25-2.27% Down54% Dn/Up57.2% / 6.6% Score51.8 DownOpp0.363

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#49 US.DOV Dover Corporation · Industrials

-0.36%

P25-2.20% Down54.4% Dn/Up57.8% / 6.2% Score71.4 DownOpp0.355

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#50 US.LMT Lockheed Martin · Industrials

-0.24%

P25-2.13% Down54% Dn/Up55.8% / 4% Score66.4 DownOpp0.355

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=500

US.YUM · -0.67% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking