S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.CMS · -0.87% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-0.87%

Top down rate63.6%

Top P25-2.41%

DOE score2.881

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.CMS CMS Energy · Utilities

-0.87%

P25-2.41% Down63.6% Dn/Up55.2% / 2.4% Score70.8 DownOpp1.886

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#2 US.AWK American Water Works · Utilities

-0.84%

P25-2.38% Down63.4% Dn/Up55.2% / 1.6% Score71.4 DownOpp1.875

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#3 US.DPZ Domino's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.71%

P25-2.67% Down60.2% Dn/Up57.6% / 3.6% Score57.1 DownOpp1.549

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#4 US.AEP American Electric Power · Utilities

-0.53%

P25-2.24% Down60.8% Dn/Up53% / 0.6% Score69 DownOpp1.4

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#5 US.SBUX Starbucks · Consumer Discretionary

-0.72%

P25-2.72% Down59.2% Dn/Up57.6% / 5.2% Score58.2 DownOpp1.388

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#6 US.LOW Lowe's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.71%

P25-2.74% Down59.4% Dn/Up58.6% / 6% Score59 DownOpp1.345

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#7 US.HD Home Depot (The) · Consumer Discretionary

-0.66%

P25-2.66% Down59% Dn/Up57.4% / 4.4% Score60.2 DownOpp1.33

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#8 US.EXC Exelon · Utilities

-0.49%

P25-2.22% Down58.8% Dn/Up53.2% / 0.6% Score65.3 DownOpp1.223

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#9 US.GPC Genuine Parts Company · Consumer Discretionary

-0.61%

P25-2.70% Down57.8% Dn/Up57% / 4.4% Score57.3 DownOpp1.215

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#10 US.EXPE Expedia Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.76%

P25-2.98% Down59.6% Dn/Up511.6% / 10% Score61.2 DownOpp1.214

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#11 US.SO Southern Company · Utilities

-0.48%

P25-2.25% Down58.4% Dn/Up53.4% / 0.8% Score66.9 DownOpp1.165

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#12 US.GM General Motors · Consumer Discretionary

-0.75%

P25-3.16% Down57.8% Dn/Up511.4% / 10.4% Score56.2 DownOpp1.118

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#13 US.LVS Las Vegas Sands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.58%

P25-2.51% Down58% Dn/Up57% / 4.6% Score61.4 DownOpp1.111

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#14 US.NKE Nike, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.60%

P25-2.62% Down57.6% Dn/Up57.8% / 6.2% Score52 DownOpp1.101

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#15 US.CCL Carnival Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-0.72%

P25-3.06% Down58% Dn/Up512.2% / 9.6% Score61.1 DownOpp1.091

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#16 US.DHI D. R. Horton · Consumer Discretionary

-0.61%

P25-2.52% Down57.8% Dn/Up58.6% / 5% Score64.7 DownOpp1.079

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#17 US.ECL Ecolab · Materials

-0.67%

P25-2.39% Down57.6% Dn/Up57.6% / 4.6% Score70.4 DownOpp1.072

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#18 US.DUK Duke Energy · Utilities

-0.45%

P25-2.17% Down57.4% Dn/Up52.6% / 0.4% Score65.4 DownOpp1.07

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#19 US.ISRG Intuitive Surgical · Health Care

-0.58%

P25-2.41% Down57.8% Dn/Up56.8% / 5.4% Score57.8 DownOpp1.049

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#20 US.ORLY O’Reilly Automotive · Consumer Discretionary

-0.56%

P25-2.65% Down57% Dn/Up58.6% / 4.6% Score64.4 DownOpp1.024

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#21 US.CVNA Carvana · Consumer Discretionary

-0.71%

P25-2.87% Down57.6% Dn/Up59.4% / 10.4% Score52.6 DownOpp1.017

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#22 US.LEN Lennar · Consumer Discretionary

-0.56%

P25-2.66% Down56.6% Dn/Up58.4% / 4.8% Score64.3 DownOpp0.983

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#23 US.PPL PPL Corporation · Utilities

-0.36%

P25-2.15% Down57% Dn/Up52.8% / 0.4% Score64.7 DownOpp0.948

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#24 US.YUM Yum! Brands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.55%

P25-2.61% Down56.4% Dn/Up57.8% / 5.4% Score59.7 DownOpp0.943

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#25 US.TPR Tapestry, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.56%

P25-2.51% Down56.8% Dn/Up58.8% / 4.8% Score67.6 DownOpp0.936

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#26 US.FE FirstEnergy · Utilities

-0.35%

P25-2.21% Down56.4% Dn/Up53% / 0.4% Score64.8 DownOpp0.904

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#27 US.NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.52%

P25-2.76% Down56.6% Dn/Up58.8% / 7.2% Score54.1 DownOpp0.9

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#28 US.WYNN Wynn Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-0.51%

P25-2.51% Down56.6% Dn/Up58.4% / 5% Score64.7 DownOpp0.88

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#29 US.BKNG Booking Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.53%

P25-2.50% Down56.8% Dn/Up55.4% / 7.6% Score48.6 DownOpp0.878

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#30 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.50%

P25-2.66% Down56.8% Dn/Up59.8% / 5.6% Score67.2 DownOpp0.869

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#31 US.PKG Packaging Corporation of America · Materials

-0.55%

P25-2.65% Down56% Dn/Up57.8% / 5.4% Score69.2 DownOpp0.849

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#32 US.VMC Vulcan Materials Company · Materials

-0.55%

P25-2.39% Down55.6% Dn/Up55.2% / 5.8% Score59.5 DownOpp0.801

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#33 US.PHM PulteGroup · Consumer Discretionary

-0.43%

P25-2.66% Down55.4% Dn/Up59.2% / 4.6% Score69.1 DownOpp0.733

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#34 US.NVR NVR, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.43%

P25-2.54% Down55.2% Dn/Up58.8% / 5% Score65.3 DownOpp0.691

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#35 US.ES Eversource Energy · Utilities

-0.23%

P25-2.06% Down55% Dn/Up52.4% / 0.8% Score63.7 DownOpp0.619

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#36 US.DD DuPont · Materials

-0.46%

P25-3.04% Down55.8% Dn/Up510.4% / 10.8% Score56.2 DownOpp0.614

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#37 US.TSCO Tractor Supply · Consumer Discretionary

-0.44%

P25-2.95% Down55.2% Dn/Up511.4% / 9.6% Score59.8 DownOpp0.569

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#38 US.AEE Ameren · Utilities

-0.21%

P25-2.05% Down53.8% Dn/Up52.2% / 0.4% Score63.6 DownOpp0.525

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#39 US.KKR KKR & Co. · Financials

-0.32%

P25-2.27% Down54.2% Dn/Up57.4% / 4% Score61.4 DownOpp0.523

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#40 US.GILD Gilead Sciences · Health Care

-0.34%

P25-2.30% Down54.8% Dn/Up57.2% / 6.8% Score50.5 DownOpp0.512

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#41 US.SYK Stryker Corporation · Health Care

-0.43%

P25-2.21% Down55% Dn/Up56.2% / 7.2% Score60.7 DownOpp0.495

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#42 US.APTV Aptiv · Consumer Discretionary

-0.35%

P25-2.87% Down55% Dn/Up59.2% / 9.2% Score56.1 DownOpp0.495

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#43 US.AMCR Amcor · Materials

-0.43%

P25-2.31% Down54% Dn/Up55.4% / 6.8% Score56.9 DownOpp0.493

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#44 US.AZO AutoZone · Consumer Discretionary

-0.49%

P25-2.76% Down54.8% Dn/Up57.6% / 11.2% Score53.3 DownOpp0.492

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#45 US.SHW Sherwin-Williams · Materials

-0.40%

P25-2.38% Down54.4% Dn/Up55% / 8% Score51.5 DownOpp0.481

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#46 US.MLM Martin Marietta Materials · Materials

-0.43%

P25-3.04% Down54.4% Dn/Up510.6% / 11% Score54.6 DownOpp0.472

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#47 US.LULU Lululemon Athletica · Consumer Discretionary

-0.41%

P25-2.80% Down53.8% Dn/Up58.2% / 10.4% Score50.7 DownOpp0.41

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#48 US.MMM 3M · Industrials

-0.41%

P25-2.45% Down55.8% Dn/Up510.6% / 8.2% Score79.2 DownOpp0.4

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#49 US.HAS Hasbro · Consumer Discretionary

-0.28%

P25-2.60% Down53.6% Dn/Up56% / 8.2% Score45.6 DownOpp0.384

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#50 US.ABNB Airbnb · Consumer Discretionary

-0.24%

P25-2.46% Down54% Dn/Up56.2% / 8% Score42.3 DownOpp0.378

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=500

US.CMS · -0.87% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking