S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.EXC · -0.78% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-0.78%

Top down rate62.4%

Top P25-2.38%

DOE score2.987

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.EXC Exelon · Utilities

-0.78%

P25-2.38% Down62.4% Dn/Up54.6% / 1.6% Score69.3 DownOpp1.751

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#2 US.FE FirstEnergy · Utilities

-0.76%

P25-2.36% Down62.2% Dn/Up53.8% / 1.4% Score68 DownOpp1.732

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#3 US.SHW Sherwin-Williams · Materials

-0.94%

P25-2.62% Down59% Dn/Up57% / 4.8% Score67.4 DownOpp1.522

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#4 US.PPL PPL Corporation · Utilities

-0.59%

P25-2.29% Down60.4% Dn/Up53.4% / 0.6% Score68.4 DownOpp1.446

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#5 US.AWK American Water Works · Utilities

-0.75%

P25-2.36% Down60.8% Dn/Up55% / 4% Score76.3 DownOpp1.392

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#6 US.NKE Nike, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.85%

P25-2.66% Down59% Dn/Up57.2% / 7.2% Score58 DownOpp1.368

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#7 US.SBUX Starbucks · Consumer Discretionary

-0.74%

P25-2.73% Down59.2% Dn/Up58% / 7% Score59.4 DownOpp1.293

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#8 US.LVS Las Vegas Sands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.67%

P25-2.54% Down58.6% Dn/Up58.6% / 4.6% Score63.8 DownOpp1.239

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#9 US.BKNG Booking Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.61%

P25-2.51% Down58.4% Dn/Up57% / 4% Score57.6 DownOpp1.237

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#10 US.DTE DTE Energy · Utilities

-0.51%

P25-2.21% Down58.6% Dn/Up53.2% / 0.4% Score66.3 DownOpp1.229

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#11 US.CMS CMS Energy · Utilities

-0.51%

P25-2.29% Down58.6% Dn/Up53.6% / 0.8% Score66.1 DownOpp1.227

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#12 US.GPC Genuine Parts Company · Consumer Discretionary

-0.60%

P25-2.66% Down58.4% Dn/Up58.6% / 4.8% Score61.7 DownOpp1.186

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#13 US.GRMN Garmin · Consumer Discretionary

-0.62%

P25-2.51% Down58.4% Dn/Up57% / 4.8% Score59.5 DownOpp1.185

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#14 US.PFE Pfizer · Health Care

-0.53%

P25-2.43% Down57.8% Dn/Up56.8% / 5.8% Score57 DownOpp0.986

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#15 US.YUM Yum! Brands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.58%

P25-2.65% Down57.6% Dn/Up510.4% / 6.2% Score70.2 DownOpp0.952

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#16 US.CRH CRH plc · Materials

-0.55%

P25-2.42% Down57% Dn/Up55.2% / 6% Score58.1 DownOpp0.919

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#17 US.HD Home Depot (The) · Consumer Discretionary

-0.58%

P25-2.66% Down56.8% Dn/Up510.4% / 6.2% Score69.1 DownOpp0.899

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#18 US.WYNN Wynn Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-0.57%

P25-2.52% Down58% Dn/Up59% / 7.4% Score70.1 DownOpp0.87

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#19 US.LOW Lowe's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.56%

P25-2.52% Down57.6% Dn/Up510.2% / 7% Score69.5 DownOpp0.857

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#20 US.HCA HCA Healthcare · Health Care

-0.51%

P25-2.38% Down57% Dn/Up55.8% / 6.2% Score60.3 DownOpp0.841

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#21 US.LULU Lululemon Athletica · Consumer Discretionary

-0.71%

P25-2.94% Down55.8% Dn/Up510.6% / 11.2% Score53.1 DownOpp0.839

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#22 US.LEN Lennar · Consumer Discretionary

-0.49%

P25-2.47% Down56.4% Dn/Up58.6% / 4.8% Score65.9 DownOpp0.837

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#23 US.WEC WEC Energy Group · Utilities

-0.33%

P25-2.17% Down56% Dn/Up52.4% / 0.4% Score65.6 DownOpp0.837

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#24 US.DD DuPont · Materials

-0.52%

P25-3.12% Down56.8% Dn/Up510.2% / 9.8% Score57.4 DownOpp0.825

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#25 US.AMCR Amcor · Materials

-0.47%

P25-2.42% Down56% Dn/Up56% / 4.6% Score60.9 DownOpp0.822

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#26 US.BMY Bristol Myers Squibb · Health Care

-0.45%

P25-2.47% Down56% Dn/Up56.6% / 5.2% Score58.1 DownOpp0.8

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#27 US.ORLY O’Reilly Automotive · Consumer Discretionary

-0.52%

P25-2.66% Down57.2% Dn/Up59% / 7% Score72.4 DownOpp0.798

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#28 US.DPZ Domino's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.47%

P25-2.51% Down56% Dn/Up58.6% / 5.6% Score64.3 DownOpp0.759

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#29 US.EXPE Expedia Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.52%

P25-2.75% Down55.6% Dn/Up510.8% / 7.2% Score63.8 DownOpp0.745

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#30 US.RMD ResMed · Health Care

-0.52%

P25-2.41% Down55.8% Dn/Up55.8% / 6.6% Score63.1 DownOpp0.717

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#31 US.DHI D. R. Horton · Consumer Discretionary

-0.43%

P25-2.51% Down55.6% Dn/Up58.8% / 4.8% Score67.3 DownOpp0.713

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#32 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.48%

P25-2.72% Down56.6% Dn/Up511.2% / 7% Score74.6 DownOpp0.709

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#33 US.AEP American Electric Power · Utilities

-0.28%

P25-2.15% Down54.8% Dn/Up52.4% / 0.6% Score65.1 DownOpp0.677

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#34 US.TSLA Tesla, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.50%

P25-2.95% Down56.4% Dn/Up511.6% / 10.8% Score58.9 DownOpp0.66

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#35 US.CTVA Corteva · Materials

-0.45%

P25-2.30% Down55.8% Dn/Up56% / 7.8% Score49.2 DownOpp0.652

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#36 US.MLM Martin Marietta Materials · Materials

-0.39%

P25-2.21% Down55.4% Dn/Up54.4% / 4.8% Score59.8 DownOpp0.638

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#37 US.AZO AutoZone · Consumer Discretionary

-0.50%

P25-2.93% Down56.4% Dn/Up512% / 12% Score58.8 DownOpp0.583

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#38 US.AVY Avery Dennison · Materials

-0.43%

P25-2.43% Down54.8% Dn/Up56.4% / 5.6% Score67.7 DownOpp0.578

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#39 US.TPR Tapestry, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.38%

P25-2.45% Down55.6% Dn/Up58.2% / 5.4% Score73.2 DownOpp0.568

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#40 US.STE Steris · Health Care

-0.43%

P25-2.41% Down55% Dn/Up55.8% / 6.8% Score61.3 DownOpp0.565

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#41 US.F Ford Motor Company · Consumer Discretionary

-0.45%

P25-2.84% Down55.2% Dn/Up59% / 10.4% Score52.8 DownOpp0.556

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#42 US.ECL Ecolab · Materials

-0.42%

P25-2.40% Down55.4% Dn/Up56.4% / 5.6% Score75.8 DownOpp0.548

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#43 US.CVNA Carvana · Consumer Discretionary

-0.48%

P25-2.85% Down55.4% Dn/Up512.8% / 9.8% Score66.6 DownOpp0.537

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#44 US.RTX RTX Corporation · Industrials

-0.40%

P25-2.36% Down54.4% Dn/Up58% / 5% Score73.1 DownOpp0.494

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#45 US.OMC Omnicom Group · Communication Services

-0.34%

P25-2.25% Down55.6% Dn/Up510.2% / 7.2% Score59.6 DownOpp0.472

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#46 US.APD Air Products · Materials

-0.44%

P25-2.38% Down54% Dn/Up56% / 7.8% Score56.9 DownOpp0.46

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#47 US.IFF International Flavors & Fragrances · Materials

-0.50%

P25-2.83% Down54.4% Dn/Up512.2% / 10.4% Score63.8 DownOpp0.457

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#48 US.APTV Aptiv · Consumer Discretionary

-0.41%

P25-2.47% Down54.6% Dn/Up59% / 8.4% Score59.3 DownOpp0.447

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#49 US.AMZN Amazon · Consumer Discretionary

-0.34%

P25-2.50% Down54.8% Dn/Up57.8% / 9% Score49.4 DownOpp0.438

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#50 US.ABNB Airbnb · Consumer Discretionary

-0.32%

P25-2.61% Down54.4% Dn/Up56.4% / 9% Score49.3 DownOpp0.415

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=500

US.EXC · -0.78% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking