S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.EXC · -1.04% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-1.04%

Top down rate66.2%

Top P25-2.38%

DOE score2.581

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.EXC Exelon · Utilities

-1.04%

P25-2.38% Down66.2% Dn/Up54.2% / 0.6% Score68.3 DownOpp2.383

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#2 US.FE FirstEnergy · Utilities

-0.95%

P25-2.38% Down64.6% Dn/Up54% / 1.2% Score66.5 DownOpp2.142

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#3 US.AWK American Water Works · Utilities

-0.90%

P25-2.50% Down64.2% Dn/Up55.8% / 3.4% Score75.9 DownOpp1.888

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#4 US.UNH UnitedHealth Group · Health Care

-0.71%

P25-2.49% Down62.4% Dn/Up56.2% / 2.8% Score57.8 DownOpp1.723

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#5 US.PCG PG&E Corporation · Utilities

-0.82%

P25-2.41% Down62.8% Dn/Up55% / 5.4% Score72.9 DownOpp1.576

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#6 US.BDX Becton Dickinson · Health Care

-0.69%

P25-2.41% Down61% Dn/Up55.8% / 2.8% Score59.5 DownOpp1.558

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#7 US.GEHC GE HealthCare · Health Care

-0.71%

P25-2.42% Down60.4% Dn/Up56.8% / 2.8% Score56.3 DownOpp1.557

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#8 US.HCA HCA Healthcare · Health Care

-0.66%

P25-2.43% Down60.6% Dn/Up57% / 3% Score54.2 DownOpp1.529

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#9 US.COO Cooper Companies (The) · Health Care

-0.67%

P25-2.42% Down60.4% Dn/Up56.8% / 2.8% Score60.1 DownOpp1.488

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#10 US.CVS CVS Health · Health Care

-0.60%

P25-2.43% Down60.2% Dn/Up57.4% / 3.2% Score52 DownOpp1.442

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#11 US.CAH Cardinal Health · Health Care

-0.69%

P25-2.35% Down59.8% Dn/Up55% / 3% Score60.3 DownOpp1.429

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#12 US.PPL PPL Corporation · Utilities

-0.52%

P25-2.25% Down60.2% Dn/Up53% / 1.8% Score65.9 DownOpp1.296

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#13 US.STE Steris · Health Care

-0.54%

P25-2.35% Down59.4% Dn/Up57.2% / 3.2% Score52.8 DownOpp1.291

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#14 US.BMY Bristol Myers Squibb · Health Care

-0.54%

P25-2.41% Down59.4% Dn/Up57.2% / 3.8% Score52.6 DownOpp1.272

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#15 US.ZBH Zimmer Biomet · Health Care

-0.65%

P25-2.38% Down59.2% Dn/Up54.4% / 4.8% Score60.6 DownOpp1.239

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#16 US.MCK McKesson Corporation · Health Care

-0.51%

P25-2.46% Down58.8% Dn/Up57.8% / 4.6% Score50.3 DownOpp1.176

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#17 US.ABT Abbott Laboratories · Health Care

-0.60%

P25-2.26% Down59.4% Dn/Up55.4% / 5% Score63.1 DownOpp1.144

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#18 US.COR Cencora · Health Care

-0.58%

P25-2.26% Down59.2% Dn/Up54.6% / 4.6% Score61.8 DownOpp1.142

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#19 US.VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

-0.51%

P25-2.26% Down58.6% Dn/Up56.8% / 3.6% Score54 DownOpp1.142

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#20 US.RMD ResMed · Health Care

-0.54%

P25-2.44% Down58.2% Dn/Up57.2% / 4.8% Score51.4 DownOpp1.133

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#21 US.DGX Quest Diagnostics · Health Care

-0.50%

P25-2.39% Down58.2% Dn/Up55.8% / 3.2% Score58 DownOpp1.127

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#22 US.ZTS Zoetis · Health Care

-0.48%

P25-2.46% Down57.6% Dn/Up57% / 3.6% Score52.7 DownOpp1.092

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#23 US.MRK Merck & Co. · Health Care

-0.52%

P25-2.35% Down57.6% Dn/Up57% / 3.8% Score54.1 DownOpp1.082

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#24 US.DPZ Domino's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.57%

P25-2.69% Down56.4% Dn/Up57% / 5.4% Score53.8 DownOpp1.027

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#25 US.IDXX Idexx Laboratories · Health Care

-0.60%

P25-2.19% Down59.2% Dn/Up55.6% / 6% Score67 DownOpp1.021

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#26 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.63%

P25-2.73% Down57.2% Dn/Up58.8% / 7.4% Score57.8 DownOpp1.011

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#27 US.DRI Darden Restaurants · Consumer Discretionary

-0.61%

P25-2.56% Down56.6% Dn/Up56.8% / 5.8% Score58 DownOpp0.995

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#28 US.TSLA Tesla, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.59%

P25-2.56% Down57% Dn/Up57.6% / 6% Score58.3 DownOpp0.993

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#29 US.DHI D. R. Horton · Consumer Discretionary

-0.57%

P25-2.49% Down56.4% Dn/Up56.8% / 6% Score60.2 DownOpp0.893

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#30 US.XEL Xcel Energy · Utilities

-0.36%

P25-2.07% Down56.2% Dn/Up52.2% / 0.2% Score62.7 DownOpp0.891

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#31 US.PHM PulteGroup · Consumer Discretionary

-0.52%

P25-2.46% Down57% Dn/Up56% / 6% Score59.6 DownOpp0.888

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#32 US.PFE Pfizer · Health Care

-0.38%

P25-2.26% Down57.4% Dn/Up57.2% / 4.6% Score50.4 DownOpp0.883

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#33 US.YUM Yum! Brands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.60%

P25-2.50% Down56.6% Dn/Up57% / 7.8% Score55.2 DownOpp0.871

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#34 US.GILD Gilead Sciences · Health Care

-0.35%

P25-2.37% Down57.2% Dn/Up57.6% / 4.8% Score48.9 DownOpp0.864

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#35 US.HSIC Henry Schein · Health Care

-0.56%

P25-2.21% Down58.8% Dn/Up55.8% / 7.4% Score69.2 DownOpp0.853

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#36 US.BKNG Booking Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.47%

P25-2.41% Down56.6% Dn/Up56.4% / 5.6% Score59.2 DownOpp0.821

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#37 US.JNJ Johnson & Johnson · Health Care

-0.34%

P25-2.31% Down56.6% Dn/Up57.2% / 4.6% Score50.1 DownOpp0.794

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#38 US.ABNB Airbnb · Consumer Discretionary

-0.50%

P25-2.43% Down56% Dn/Up56.6% / 7% Score57.4 DownOpp0.737

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#39 US.AMGN Amgen · Health Care

-0.47%

P25-2.12% Down58% Dn/Up55% / 6.8% Score68.4 DownOpp0.719

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#40 US.ISRG Intuitive Surgical · Health Care

-0.34%

P25-2.37% Down55.8% Dn/Up58.4% / 5.6% Score47.3 DownOpp0.706

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#41 US.GPC Genuine Parts Company · Consumer Discretionary

-0.41%

P25-2.67% Down55.2% Dn/Up57.2% / 6.4% Score54 DownOpp0.705

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#42 US.REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

-0.35%

P25-2.35% Down56.2% Dn/Up58.2% / 6.4% Score48.2 DownOpp0.688

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#43 US.VMC Vulcan Materials Company · Materials

-0.51%

P25-2.21% Down57.2% Dn/Up57.2% / 6.6% Score74.1 DownOpp0.687

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#44 US.CI Cigna · Health Care

-0.29%

P25-2.35% Down56% Dn/Up57.6% / 5.2% Score48.6 DownOpp0.681

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#45 US.LH Labcorp · Health Care

-0.45%

P25-2.17% Down57.6% Dn/Up55.6% / 7.2% Score66.9 DownOpp0.667

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#46 US.PEG Public Service Enterprise Group · Utilities

-0.25%

P25-2.02% Down54.8% Dn/Up51.6% / 0.6% Score61.4 DownOpp0.642

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#47 US.LLY Lilly (Eli) · Health Care

-0.48%

P25-2.19% Down58% Dn/Up55.4% / 8.4% Score70.7 DownOpp0.633

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#48 US.HD Home Depot (The) · Consumer Discretionary

-0.37%

P25-2.38% Down55.4% Dn/Up57% / 6.4% Score55.9 DownOpp0.594

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#49 US.META Meta Platforms · Communication Services

-0.41%

P25-2.04% Down57.2% Dn/Up55.8% / 6.8% Score67.5 DownOpp0.582

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#50 US.MLM Martin Marietta Materials · Materials

-0.46%

P25-2.11% Down55.8% Dn/Up53.2% / 6.8% Score61.7 DownOpp0.581

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=500

US.EXC · -1.04% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking