S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.ROL · -1.82% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-1.82%

Top down rate77.5%

Top P25-4.09%

DOE score2.561

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.ROL Rollins, Inc. · Industrials

-1.82%

P25-4.09% Down77.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 0% Score56.7 DownOpp4.617

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#2 US.GILD Gilead Sciences · Health Care

-1.65%

P25-3.31% Down75% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score53.7 DownOpp3.925

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#3 US.TJX TJX Companies · Consumer Discretionary

-0.99%

P25-2.91% Down80% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score58.5 DownOpp3.679

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#4 US.MLM Martin Marietta Materials · Materials

-1.62%

P25-3.48% Down70% Dn/Up510% / 5% Score60.7 DownOpp3.335

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#5 US.MDT Medtronic · Health Care

-0.86%

P25-2.91% Down77.5% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score55.4 DownOpp3.222

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#6 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-1.31%

P25-3.25% Down70% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score58.6 DownOpp3.133

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#7 US.PCG PG&E Corporation · Utilities

-1.62%

P25-2.29% Down70% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score70.1 DownOpp3.117

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#8 US.SJM J.M. Smucker Company (The) · Consumer Staples

-0.99%

P25-3.42% Down70% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score53.2 DownOpp3.046

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#9 US.RMD ResMed · Health Care

-1.17%

P25-3.07% Down70% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score49.5 DownOpp3.016

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#10 US.JNJ Johnson & Johnson · Health Care

-1.37%

P25-2.80% Down65% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score51.1 DownOpp2.737

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#11 US.MRK Merck & Co. · Health Care

-0.69%

P25-2.91% Down70% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score51.5 DownOpp2.631

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#12 US.COR Cencora · Health Care

-1.31%

P25-2.39% Down67.5% Dn/Up50% / 5% Score60.6 DownOpp2.553

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#13 US.KHC Kraft Heinz · Consumer Staples

-0.65%

P25-3.30% Down65% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score52.1 DownOpp2.284

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#14 US.LULU Lululemon Athletica · Consumer Discretionary

-1.14%

P25-4.15% Down60% Dn/Up517.5% / 5% Score55.5 DownOpp2.261

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#15 US.BMY Bristol Myers Squibb · Health Care

-0.79%

P25-2.95% Down67.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 5% Score53.3 DownOpp2.228

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#16 US.WST West Pharmaceutical Services · Health Care

-0.81%

P25-1.82% Down70% Dn/Up52.5% / 5% Score64.7 DownOpp2.08

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#17 US.AWK American Water Works · Utilities

-0.81%

P25-2.10% Down65% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score65.4 DownOpp2.045

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#18 US.ISRG Intuitive Surgical · Health Care

-0.56%

P25-2.23% Down67.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score53.6 DownOpp1.966

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#19 US.INCY Incyte · Health Care

-0.70%

P25-2.43% Down65% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score56.1 DownOpp1.937

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#20 US.DGX Quest Diagnostics · Health Care

-1.02%

P25-2.44% Down65% Dn/Up55% / 7.5% Score61.6 DownOpp1.918

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#21 US.CTAS Cintas · Industrials

-0.88%

P25-2.65% Down67.5% Dn/Up515% / 7.5% Score78.4 DownOpp1.904

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#22 US.CAH Cardinal Health · Health Care

-1.01%

P25-2.66% Down60% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score59.1 DownOpp1.882

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#23 US.AOS A. O. Smith · Industrials

-0.77%

P25-2.27% Down67.5% Dn/Up55% / 7.5% Score56.3 DownOpp1.865

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#24 US.EL Estée Lauder Companies (The) · Consumer Staples

-0.80%

P25-2.50% Down62.5% Dn/Up510% / 2.5% Score58.6 DownOpp1.836

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#25 US.ABT Abbott Laboratories · Health Care

-0.79%

P25-1.76% Down65% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score61.7 DownOpp1.817

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#26 US.CL Colgate-Palmolive · Consumer Staples

-0.45%

P25-3.77% Down60% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score50.4 DownOpp1.814

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#27 US.CPRT Copart · Industrials

-1.34%

P25-3.57% Down62.5% Dn/Up515% / 17.5% Score52.5 DownOpp1.789

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#28 US.IDXX Idexx Laboratories · Health Care

-0.64%

P25-2.02% Down65% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score55.3 DownOpp1.78

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#29 US.WMT Walmart · Consumer Staples

-0.77%

P25-2.64% Down62.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 5% Score49.8 DownOpp1.757

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#30 US.AMZN Amazon · Consumer Discretionary

-0.80%

P25-2.00% Down62.5% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score57.3 DownOpp1.72

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#31 US.TT Trane Technologies · Industrials

-1.05%

P25-1.97% Down62.5% Dn/Up55% / 5% Score71 DownOpp1.71

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#32 US.HCA HCA Healthcare · Health Care

-0.29%

P25-2.23% Down65% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score53 DownOpp1.65

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#33 US.XEL Xcel Energy · Utilities

-0.81%

P25-2.08% Down60% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score65.1 DownOpp1.642

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#34 US.AME Ametek · Industrials

-0.68%

P25-2.27% Down67.5% Dn/Up55% / 10% Score57.9 DownOpp1.613

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#35 US.SBUX Starbucks · Consumer Discretionary

-0.68%

P25-2.52% Down60% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score48.1 DownOpp1.599

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#36 US.DTE DTE Energy · Utilities

-0.56%

P25-2.40% Down60% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score61.4 DownOpp1.5

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#37 US.MOS Mosaic Company (The) · Materials

-1.19%

P25-2.71% Down62.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 15% Score68.1 DownOpp1.457

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#38 US.BAC Bank of America · Financials

-0.55%

P25-1.85% Down62.5% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score76.7 DownOpp1.437

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#39 US.COO Cooper Companies (The) · Health Care

-0.78%

P25-2.51% Down60% Dn/Up52.5% / 5% Score64.9 DownOpp1.421

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#40 US.NOC Northrop Grumman · Industrials

-0.72%

P25-2.40% Down62.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 7.5% Score61 DownOpp1.412

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#41 US.RTX RTX Corporation · Industrials

-0.63%

P25-2.35% Down65% Dn/Up52.5% / 10% Score57.2 DownOpp1.388

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#42 US.KEY KeyCorp · Financials

-0.65%

P25-1.74% Down60% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score66.5 DownOpp1.386

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#43 US.NVR NVR, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.63%

P25-1.83% Down60% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score68.1 DownOpp1.377

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#44 US.SYK Stryker Corporation · Health Care

-0.60%

P25-2.47% Down60% Dn/Up57.5% / 5% Score47.3 DownOpp1.363

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#45 US.AVY Avery Dennison · Materials

-0.94%

P25-2.82% Down57.5% Dn/Up55% / 7.5% Score58.1 DownOpp1.359

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#46 US.NKE Nike, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-1.10%

P25-2.57% Down52.5% Dn/Up510% / 2.5% Score59.6 DownOpp1.346

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#47 US.KO Coca-Cola Company (The) · Consumer Staples

-0.74%

P25-2.17% Down57.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score55.2 DownOpp1.318

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#48 US.LH Labcorp · Health Care

-0.69%

P25-1.59% Down62.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 5% Score62.9 DownOpp1.316

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#49 US.ITW Illinois Tool Works · Industrials

-0.67%

P25-2.40% Down57.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score56.2 DownOpp1.299

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#50 US.DRI Darden Restaurants · Consumer Discretionary

-0.61%

P25-2.53% Down60% Dn/Up57.5% / 5% Score60 DownOpp1.293

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=40

US.ROL · -1.82% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking