S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.EXPE · -0.75% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-0.75%

Top down rate58.2%

Top P25-3.10%

DOE score2.567

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.EXPE Expedia Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.75%

P25-3.10% Down58.2% Dn/Up510% / 9.2% Score53.1 DownOpp1.231

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#2 US.HCA HCA Healthcare · Health Care

-0.56%

P25-2.30% Down58% Dn/Up56% / 2.8% Score57.4 DownOpp1.176

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#3 US.GPC Genuine Parts Company · Consumer Discretionary

-0.74%

P25-3.05% Down57.6% Dn/Up511% / 9.8% Score51 DownOpp1.14

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#4 US.A Agilent Technologies · Health Care

-0.67%

P25-2.43% Down58.4% Dn/Up56.4% / 5.2% Score67.8 DownOpp1.129

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#5 US.DHR Danaher Corporation · Health Care

-0.59%

P25-2.29% Down58% Dn/Up56% / 4.6% Score63.8 DownOpp1.048

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#6 US.BIIB Biogen · Health Care

-0.49%

P25-2.26% Down57.6% Dn/Up56.4% / 3.4% Score54.8 DownOpp1.048

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#7 US.LULU Lululemon Athletica · Consumer Discretionary

-0.57%

P25-2.64% Down56.2% Dn/Up58.4% / 5% Score58.2 DownOpp0.99

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#8 US.APTV Aptiv · Consumer Discretionary

-0.68%

P25-2.96% Down56.2% Dn/Up510.8% / 10.4% Score50.5 DownOpp0.913

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#9 US.MCK McKesson Corporation · Health Care

-0.44%

P25-2.22% Down57% Dn/Up55.8% / 3.8% Score56.4 DownOpp0.904

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#10 US.ISRG Intuitive Surgical · Health Care

-0.51%

P25-2.26% Down57.6% Dn/Up56% / 5.2% Score63.4 DownOpp0.896

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#11 US.NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.68%

P25-3.06% Down56.6% Dn/Up512.4% / 11.8% Score53.1 DownOpp0.867

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#12 US.TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific · Health Care

-0.36%

P25-2.24% Down57% Dn/Up56.8% / 4% Score52.6 DownOpp0.846

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#13 US.PODD Insulet Corporation · Health Care

-0.51%

P25-2.46% Down55.8% Dn/Up56% / 5.6% Score57 DownOpp0.825

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#14 US.VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

-0.50%

P25-2.22% Down56.6% Dn/Up56% / 4.8% Score63.8 DownOpp0.817

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#15 US.AZO AutoZone · Consumer Discretionary

-0.44%

P25-2.51% Down55.6% Dn/Up58.6% / 5.8% Score59.3 DownOpp0.723

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#16 US.CI Cigna · Health Care

-0.35%

P25-2.12% Down55.2% Dn/Up55.6% / 3% Score57.5 DownOpp0.685

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#17 US.LVS Las Vegas Sands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.45%

P25-2.61% Down54.6% Dn/Up56.4% / 7.8% Score47.8 DownOpp0.644

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#18 US.WYNN Wynn Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-0.52%

P25-2.94% Down55.8% Dn/Up511% / 11.6% Score52.8 DownOpp0.627

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#19 US.YUM Yum! Brands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.52%

P25-2.31% Down55% Dn/Up57.2% / 7.8% Score54.8 DownOpp0.619

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#20 US.MDT Medtronic · Health Care

-0.40%

P25-1.97% Down55.6% Dn/Up55% / 4.6% Score63.9 DownOpp0.585

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#21 US.BKNG Booking Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.50%

P25-2.89% Down55.4% Dn/Up510.4% / 11.4% Score52.2 DownOpp0.579

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#22 US.PHM PulteGroup · Consumer Discretionary

-0.49%

P25-2.41% Down54.8% Dn/Up57% / 7.6% Score58.8 DownOpp0.579

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#23 US.INCY Incyte · Health Care

-0.28%

P25-2.01% Down55% Dn/Up55.8% / 3.8% Score50.7 DownOpp0.574

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#24 US.MGM MGM Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-0.40%

P25-3.20% Down54.4% Dn/Up511.4% / 10.8% Score46.9 DownOpp0.552

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#25 US.CVNA Carvana · Consumer Discretionary

-0.45%

P25-2.88% Down54% Dn/Up511% / 9.4% Score50 DownOpp0.551

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#26 US.HD Home Depot (The) · Consumer Discretionary

-0.45%

P25-2.45% Down54.4% Dn/Up57.8% / 7% Score60.4 DownOpp0.542

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#27 US.DPZ Domino's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.46%

P25-2.24% Down54.6% Dn/Up56.8% / 7.4% Score53.9 DownOpp0.54

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#28 US.CVS CVS Health · Health Care

-0.39%

P25-2.16% Down55% Dn/Up56% / 6% Score64.3 DownOpp0.488

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#29 US.LEN Lennar · Consumer Discretionary

-0.55%

P25-2.85% Down54.2% Dn/Up512.4% / 11.2% Score59.4 DownOpp0.481

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#30 US.BDX Becton Dickinson · Health Care

-0.24%

P25-1.99% Down54.6% Dn/Up55.4% / 4.2% Score50.6 DownOpp0.474

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#31 US.DHI D. R. Horton · Consumer Discretionary

-0.35%

P25-2.45% Down53.8% Dn/Up58.4% / 5.6% Score63.2 DownOpp0.456

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#32 US.GM General Motors · Consumer Discretionary

-0.41%

P25-2.44% Down54.2% Dn/Up57.4% / 7.6% Score59.8 DownOpp0.452

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#33 US.DGX Quest Diagnostics · Health Care

-0.37%

P25-2.18% Down54.6% Dn/Up56% / 5.8% Score64.6 DownOpp0.451

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#34 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.44%

P25-2.27% Down53.8% Dn/Up56.2% / 7.2% Score58.4 DownOpp0.441

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#35 US.ZTS Zoetis · Health Care

-0.36%

P25-2.41% Down54.2% Dn/Up57.8% / 7.6% Score57 DownOpp0.415

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#36 US.BMY Bristol Myers Squibb · Health Care

-0.37%

P25-2.14% Down54.6% Dn/Up55.8% / 6.6% Score66 DownOpp0.382

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#37 US.ORLY O’Reilly Automotive · Consumer Discretionary

-0.32%

P25-2.40% Down53.4% Dn/Up56.2% / 7.2% Score53.3 DownOpp0.36

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#38 US.CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill · Consumer Discretionary

-0.39%

P25-2.21% Down53% Dn/Up56.8% / 7% Score54.3 DownOpp0.355

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#39 US.HAS Hasbro · Consumer Discretionary

-0.44%

P25-2.93% Down53.8% Dn/Up512.6% / 11.4% Score59.2 DownOpp0.349

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#40 US.LH Labcorp · Health Care

-0.34%

P25-2.14% Down54.8% Dn/Up55% / 7.2% Score65.8 DownOpp0.333

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#41 US.PFE Pfizer · Health Care

-0.15%

P25-2.07% Down53.2% Dn/Up56.2% / 4.2% Score51 DownOpp0.289

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#42 US.UNH UnitedHealth Group · Health Care

-0.32%

P25-2.17% Down54% Dn/Up56.2% / 6.8% Score66.3 DownOpp0.277

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#43 US.LOW Lowe's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.32%

P25-2.29% Down53.2% Dn/Up58% / 6.6% Score65 DownOpp0.265

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#44 US.ECL Ecolab · Materials

-0.38%

P25-2.12% Down54.2% Dn/Up55.4% / 8.8% Score61.5 DownOpp0.257

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#45 US.ABBV AbbVie · Health Care

-0.28%

P25-2.14% Down54% Dn/Up55.8% / 6.6% Score65.8 DownOpp0.246

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#46 US.APD Air Products · Materials

-0.31%

P25-2.08% Down53.4% Dn/Up55.4% / 7.4% Score61.3 DownOpp0.198

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#47 US.NEM Newmont · Materials

-0.31%

P25-2.80% Down54% Dn/Up510% / 12.4% Score56.6 DownOpp0.162

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#48 US.RCL Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.36%

P25-2.71% Down53% Dn/Up511.6% / 11.2% Score59.6 DownOpp0.159

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#49 US.AMGN Amgen · Health Care

-0.25%

P25-2.14% Down54.4% Dn/Up55.4% / 8% Score67.4 DownOpp0.152

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#50 US.AVY Avery Dennison · Materials

-0.25%

P25-2.24% Down52.8% Dn/Up56.2% / 7.8% Score55.5 DownOpp0.15

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=500

US.EXPE · -0.75% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking