S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.AES · -1.34% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-1.34%

Top down rate69.2%

Top P25-2.76%

DOE score2.855

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.AES AES Corporation · Utilities

-1.34%

P25-2.76% Down69.2% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score80.4 DownOpp2.813

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#2 US.DECK Deckers Brands · Consumer Discretionary

-1.18%

P25-3.56% Down61.7% Dn/Up511.7% / 5% Score46.9 DownOpp2.354

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#3 US.BKNG Booking Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-1.14%

P25-3.92% Down60% Dn/Up516.7% / 5% Score46.5 DownOpp2.271

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#4 US.RCL Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Discretionary

-1.16%

P25-2.98% Down61.7% Dn/Up59.2% / 4.2% Score48.8 DownOpp2.223

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#5 US.CCL Carnival Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-1.04%

P25-3.24% Down62.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 4.2% Score51.8 DownOpp2.21

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#6 US.WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-1.06%

P25-2.73% Down64.2% Dn/Up510% / 4.2% Score59.4 DownOpp2.181

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#7 US.SO Southern Company · Utilities

-1.05%

P25-2.36% Down64.2% Dn/Up53.3% / 0.8% Score73 DownOpp2.181

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#8 US.EXPE Expedia Group · Consumer Discretionary

-1.02%

P25-3.77% Down63.3% Dn/Up515% / 8.3% Score55.5 DownOpp2.112

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#9 US.HD Home Depot (The) · Consumer Discretionary

-0.93%

P25-2.91% Down62.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 5.8% Score55.8 DownOpp1.891

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#10 US.ABNB Airbnb · Consumer Discretionary

-1.13%

P25-3.19% Down57.5% Dn/Up59.2% / 5% Score47.4 DownOpp1.872

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#11 US.NVR NVR, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.79%

P25-3.84% Down60% Dn/Up516.7% / 5.8% Score50.8 DownOpp1.821

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#12 US.A Agilent Technologies · Health Care

-0.84%

P25-2.45% Down63.3% Dn/Up55.8% / 4.2% Score60.1 DownOpp1.814

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#13 US.CVNA Carvana · Consumer Discretionary

-1.01%

P25-3.87% Down58.3% Dn/Up514.2% / 8.3% Score49.2 DownOpp1.774

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#14 US.APTV Aptiv · Consumer Discretionary

-0.81%

P25-3.86% Down58.3% Dn/Up515.8% / 5% Score49.1 DownOpp1.771

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#15 US.ISRG Intuitive Surgical · Health Care

-0.77%

P25-2.66% Down62.5% Dn/Up56.7% / 4.2% Score60.1 DownOpp1.732

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#16 US.MAS Masco · Industrials

-0.89%

P25-2.87% Down58.3% Dn/Up511.7% / 5% Score45.8 DownOpp1.628

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#17 US.GPC Genuine Parts Company · Consumer Discretionary

-1.06%

P25-3.56% Down58.3% Dn/Up59.2% / 10.8% Score45.8 DownOpp1.622

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#18 US.VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

-0.75%

P25-2.58% Down61.7% Dn/Up55% / 4.2% Score61 DownOpp1.622

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#19 US.GE GE Aerospace · Industrials

-0.74%

P25-2.15% Down64.2% Dn/Up55% / 6.7% Score54.7 DownOpp1.601

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#20 US.LEN Lennar · Consumer Discretionary

-1.00%

P25-3.19% Down56.7% Dn/Up58.3% / 6.7% Score48.3 DownOpp1.569

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#21 US.HCA HCA Healthcare · Health Care

-0.68%

P25-2.69% Down60% Dn/Up58.3% / 2.5% Score60.4 DownOpp1.55

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#22 US.MGM MGM Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-0.84%

P25-3.41% Down58.3% Dn/Up58.3% / 8.3% Score45.9 DownOpp1.514

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#23 US.DHR Danaher Corporation · Health Care

-0.63%

P25-2.63% Down59.2% Dn/Up55% / 1.7% Score59.6 DownOpp1.475

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#24 US.SWK Stanley Black & Decker · Industrials

-0.94%

P25-3.07% Down56.7% Dn/Up512.5% / 8.3% Score47.5 DownOpp1.389

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#25 US.LULU Lululemon Athletica · Consumer Discretionary

-0.62%

P25-2.42% Down59.2% Dn/Up58.3% / 4.2% Score46.6 DownOpp1.36

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#26 US.RL Ralph Lauren Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-0.63%

P25-2.21% Down59.2% Dn/Up53.3% / 4.2% Score51.1 DownOpp1.283

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#27 US.RMD ResMed · Health Care

-0.64%

P25-1.77% Down61.7% Dn/Up53.3% / 5% Score63.6 DownOpp1.242

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#28 US.NKE Nike, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.60%

P25-2.79% Down59.2% Dn/Up510% / 5.8% Score59.6 DownOpp1.239

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#29 US.PHM PulteGroup · Consumer Discretionary

-0.87%

P25-3.25% Down60% Dn/Up510.8% / 15.8% Score39.9 DownOpp1.235

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#30 US.URI United Rentals · Industrials

-0.61%

P25-2.32% Down58.3% Dn/Up55.8% / 4.2% Score50.2 DownOpp1.225

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#31 US.WYNN Wynn Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-0.81%

P25-3.66% Down58.3% Dn/Up512.5% / 14.2% Score42.2 DownOpp1.221

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#32 US.LII Lennox International · Industrials

-0.79%

P25-2.65% Down55.8% Dn/Up57.5% / 5.8% Score49.8 DownOpp1.195

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#33 US.TT Trane Technologies · Industrials

-0.69%

P25-2.35% Down59.2% Dn/Up54.2% / 7.5% Score52.1 DownOpp1.173

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#34 US.OMC Omnicom Group · Communication Services

-0.57%

P25-2.32% Down60% Dn/Up58.3% / 7.5% Score48.1 DownOpp1.139

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#35 US.BDX Becton Dickinson · Health Care

-0.63%

P25-2.43% Down56.7% Dn/Up57.5% / 3.3% Score58.4 DownOpp1.138

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#36 US.MSCI MSCI Inc. · Financials

-0.50%

P25-1.44% Down59.2% Dn/Up52.5% / 0.8% Score56.3 DownOpp1.126

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#37 US.ED Consolidated Edison · Utilities

-0.39%

P25-2.27% Down59.2% Dn/Up52.5% / 0.8% Score70.1 DownOpp1.12

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#38 US.CLX Clorox · Consumer Staples

-0.49%

P25-2.26% Down59.2% Dn/Up55.8% / 3.3% Score63.8 DownOpp1.115

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#39 US.HII Huntington Ingalls Industries · Industrials

-0.81%

P25-2.53% Down56.7% Dn/Up57.5% / 9.2% Score49.2 DownOpp1.058

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#40 US.MCK McKesson Corporation · Health Care

-0.52%

P25-2.19% Down57.5% Dn/Up55.8% / 2.5% Score61.6 DownOpp1.056

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#41 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.62%

P25-2.45% Down55.8% Dn/Up59.2% / 3.3% Score59.4 DownOpp1.053

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#42 US.CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill · Consumer Discretionary

-0.71%

P25-2.83% Down57.5% Dn/Up515% / 9.2% Score56.9 DownOpp1.039

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#43 US.BSX Boston Scientific · Health Care

-0.54%

P25-2.18% Down59.2% Dn/Up55% / 5% Score65.4 DownOpp1.031

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#44 US.COO Cooper Companies (The) · Health Care

-0.56%

P25-2.16% Down60.8% Dn/Up54.2% / 7.5% Score64.9 DownOpp1.027

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#45 US.GILD Gilead Sciences · Health Care

-0.43%

P25-2.04% Down58.3% Dn/Up55.8% / 3.3% Score51.8 DownOpp1.017

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#46 US.MLM Martin Marietta Materials · Materials

-0.61%

P25-2.10% Down58.3% Dn/Up53.3% / 6.7% Score52.6 DownOpp1.003

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#47 US.ETN Eaton Corporation · Industrials

-0.80%

P25-2.70% Down55.8% Dn/Up510% / 10% Score47.6 DownOpp0.982

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#48 US.TSCO Tractor Supply · Consumer Discretionary

-0.57%

P25-2.97% Down55.8% Dn/Up512.5% / 6.7% Score53.8 DownOpp0.971

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#49 US.TSLA Tesla, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.61%

P25-3.17% Down55.8% Dn/Up513.3% / 7.5% Score63.4 DownOpp0.941

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#50 US.AXON Axon Enterprise · Industrials

-0.59%

P25-2.57% Down56.7% Dn/Up510% / 8.3% Score48 DownOpp0.911

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=120

US.AES · -1.34% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking