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Downside opportunities

Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

Materialized projections ranked by downside median, downside probability, and score quality.

Calibration status

3D · n=120

Shared DOE best setting from the as-of run for this snapshot.

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-05-04
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-05-04
DOE window 2026-03-18 → 2026-04-29
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年6月25日 上午5:29 HKT
Rows 50
Excluded uptrends 176

Downside ranking

US.MOS · -1.71% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-1.71%
Top down rate70.8%
Top P25-4.18%
DOE score2.657

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.MOS Mosaic Company (The) · Materials

-1.71%

P25-4.18% Down70.8% Dn/Up519.2% / 8.3% Score44.7 DownOpp3.586
View chart 開富途
#2 US.NVR NVR, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-1.51%

P25-3.84% Down60.8% Dn/Up515% / 3.3% Score46.1 DownOpp2.79
View chart 開富途
#3 US.CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill · Consumer Discretionary

-1.52%

P25-3.75% Down60.8% Dn/Up515% / 3.3% Score45.2 DownOpp2.785
View chart 開富途
#4 US.SNA Snap-on · Industrials

-1.23%

P25-2.97% Down66.7% Dn/Up510% / 4.2% Score50.5 DownOpp2.678
View chart 開富途
#5 US.UAL United Airlines Holdings · Industrials

-1.21%

P25-2.97% Down62.5% Dn/Up58.3% / 2.5% Score45.1 DownOpp2.464
View chart 開富途
#6 US.BF.B Brown–Forman · Consumer Staples

-1.20%

P25-3.64% Down61.7% Dn/Up512.5% / 5% Score48.6 DownOpp2.382
View chart 開富途
#7 US.CBRE CBRE Group · Real Estate

-0.90%

P25-2.76% Down65.8% Dn/Up58.3% / 2.5% Score51.8 DownOpp2.315
View chart 開富途
#8 US.HWM Howmet Aerospace · Industrials

-1.13%

P25-2.96% Down64.2% Dn/Up510% / 5.8% Score52.5 DownOpp2.264
View chart 開富途
#9 US.DLTR Dollar Tree · Consumer Staples

-1.27%

P25-3.55% Down60.8% Dn/Up514.2% / 7.5% Score44.9 DownOpp2.235
View chart 開富途
#10 US.GILD Gilead Sciences · Health Care

-1.08%

P25-2.77% Down62.5% Dn/Up58.3% / 3.3% Score60.2 DownOpp2.123
View chart 開富途
#11 US.LEN Lennar · Consumer Discretionary

-0.98%

P25-3.63% Down59.2% Dn/Up514.2% / 4.2% Score46.2 DownOpp2.025
View chart 開富途
#12 US.PSA Public Storage · Real Estate

-0.63%

P25-2.76% Down64.2% Dn/Up53.3% / 0.8% Score51.7 DownOpp2.02
View chart 開富途
#13 US.UBER Uber · Industrials

-0.82%

P25-2.78% Down64.2% Dn/Up510.8% / 4.2% Score53.2 DownOpp2
View chart 開富途
#14 US.RVTY Revvity · Health Care

-0.72%

P25-2.91% Down63.3% Dn/Up58.3% / 3.3% Score43.7 DownOpp1.986
View chart 開富途
#15 US.RCL Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.96%

P25-3.92% Down58.3% Dn/Up516.7% / 4.2% Score49.4 DownOpp1.981
View chart 開富途
#16 US.EMR Emerson Electric · Industrials

-1.08%

P25-2.89% Down58.3% Dn/Up55% / 3.3% Score53.2 DownOpp1.87
View chart 開富途
#17 US.FAST Fastenal · Industrials

-0.81%

P25-2.70% Down62.5% Dn/Up59.2% / 4.2% Score50.6 DownOpp1.854
View chart 開富途
#18 US.CSGP CoStar Group · Real Estate

-0.57%

P25-2.65% Down63.3% Dn/Up55.8% / 1.7% Score47.6 DownOpp1.838
View chart 開富途
#19 US.PODD Insulet Corporation · Health Care

-0.54%

P25-2.91% Down62.5% Dn/Up56.7% / 2.5% Score45.2 DownOpp1.779
View chart 開富途
#20 US.HUBB Hubbell Incorporated · Industrials

-0.74%

P25-2.61% Down64.2% Dn/Up57.5% / 5.8% Score55.4 DownOpp1.765
View chart 開富途
#21 US.WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.83%

P25-3.69% Down60% Dn/Up514.2% / 6.7% Score53.3 DownOpp1.751
View chart 開富途
#22 US.MDT Medtronic · Health Care

-0.79%

P25-2.61% Down61.7% Dn/Up57.5% / 4.2% Score56.4 DownOpp1.704
View chart 開富途
#23 US.RMD ResMed · Health Care

-0.78%

P25-2.79% Down60% Dn/Up58.3% / 2.5% Score60.4 DownOpp1.675
View chart 開富途
#24 US.JNJ Johnson & Johnson · Health Care

-0.66%

P25-2.71% Down60% Dn/Up56.7% / 0.8% Score55.5 DownOpp1.673
View chart 開富途
#25 US.BA Boeing · Industrials

-0.71%

P25-2.75% Down63.3% Dn/Up58.3% / 6.7% Score54 DownOpp1.654
View chart 開富途
#26 US.TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific · Health Care

-0.71%

P25-2.36% Down62.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 5% Score47.4 DownOpp1.644
View chart 開富途
#27 US.ROL Rollins, Inc. · Industrials

-0.85%

P25-2.43% Down60% Dn/Up55.8% / 3.3% Score56.7 DownOpp1.634
View chart 開富途
#28 US.STE Steris · Health Care

-0.70%

P25-1.99% Down59.2% Dn/Up54.2% / 0.8% Score46.8 DownOpp1.535
View chart 開富途
#29 US.DGX Quest Diagnostics · Health Care

-0.57%

P25-2.80% Down59.2% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score45.2 DownOpp1.517
View chart 開富途
#30 US.COO Cooper Companies (The) · Health Care

-0.56%

P25-2.26% Down61.7% Dn/Up55.8% / 3.3% Score46.8 DownOpp1.512
View chart 開富途
#31 US.WST West Pharmaceutical Services · Health Care

-0.77%

P25-3.68% Down59.2% Dn/Up515% / 8.3% Score60.5 DownOpp1.474
View chart 開富途
#32 US.LULU Lululemon Athletica · Consumer Discretionary

-0.70%

P25-3.78% Down57.5% Dn/Up514.2% / 6.7% Score49.4 DownOpp1.473
View chart 開富途
#33 US.TSCO Tractor Supply · Consumer Discretionary

-0.66%

P25-3.78% Down57.5% Dn/Up515.8% / 5.8% Score51.2 DownOpp1.473
View chart 開富途
#34 US.D Dominion Energy · Utilities

-0.48%

P25-2.40% Down60.8% Dn/Up55.8% / 0% Score62.8 DownOpp1.473
View chart 開富途
#35 US.BAX Baxter International · Health Care

-0.48%

P25-2.80% Down60% Dn/Up56.7% / 3.3% Score44.9 DownOpp1.445
View chart 開富途
#36 US.HCA HCA Healthcare · Health Care

-0.48%

P25-2.84% Down60% Dn/Up55.8% / 3.3% Score46.7 DownOpp1.442
View chart 開富途
#37 US.DECK Deckers Brands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.81%

P25-3.69% Down56.7% Dn/Up515% / 8.3% Score52.3 DownOpp1.378
View chart 開富途
#38 US.CVNA Carvana · Consumer Discretionary

-0.79%

P25-2.94% Down58.3% Dn/Up510% / 7.5% Score49.2 DownOpp1.37
View chart 開富途
#39 US.DG Dollar General · Consumer Staples

-0.59%

P25-2.39% Down58.3% Dn/Up58.3% / 1.7% Score52.1 DownOpp1.359
View chart 開富途
#40 US.SOLV Solventum · Health Care

-0.52%

P25-2.50% Down58.3% Dn/Up55.8% / 0.8% Score54.3 DownOpp1.354
View chart 開富途
#41 US.NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.65%

P25-3.81% Down55.8% Dn/Up515.8% / 5.8% Score50.5 DownOpp1.34
View chart 開富途
#42 US.REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

-0.58%

P25-2.49% Down58.3% Dn/Up59.2% / 2.5% Score51.8 DownOpp1.328
View chart 開富途
#43 US.NFLX Netflix · Communication Services

-0.56%

P25-2.19% Down60% Dn/Up52.5% / 4.2% Score46.8 DownOpp1.305
View chart 開富途
#44 US.CAG Conagra Brands · Consumer Staples

-0.37%

P25-2.65% Down57.5% Dn/Up58.3% / 0% Score45.5 DownOpp1.291
View chart 開富途
#45 US.IDXX Idexx Laboratories · Health Care

-0.57%

P25-2.48% Down58.3% Dn/Up55% / 3.3% Score55.8 DownOpp1.237
View chart 開富途
#46 US.ABT Abbott Laboratories · Health Care

-0.43%

P25-2.18% Down59.2% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score49.1 DownOpp1.193
View chart 開富途
#47 US.MCK McKesson Corporation · Health Care

-0.64%

P25-2.13% Down57.5% Dn/Up59.2% / 3.3% Score52.5 DownOpp1.181
View chart 開富途
#48 US.HSIC Henry Schein · Health Care

-0.56%

P25-2.21% Down57.5% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score53.9 DownOpp1.158
View chart 開富途
#49 US.CMCSA Comcast · Communication Services

-0.55%

P25-2.08% Down59.2% Dn/Up52.5% / 5% Score47.5 DownOpp1.15
View chart 開富途
#50 US.CAH Cardinal Health · Health Care

-0.43%

P25-2.15% Down58.3% Dn/Up56.7% / 1.7% Score51.8 DownOpp1.141
View chart 開富途