S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.EMR · -2.01% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-2.01%

Top down rate71.7%

Top P25-3.61%

DOE score2.631

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.EMR Emerson Electric · Industrials

-2.01%

P25-3.61% Down71.7% Dn/Up514.2% / 3.3% Score51.4 DownOpp4.065

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#2 US.MOS Mosaic Company (The) · Materials

-1.88%

P25-4.54% Down71.7% Dn/Up522.5% / 7.5% Score42.5 DownOpp3.982

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#3 US.SW Smurfit Westrock · Materials

-2.15%

P25-5.07% Down67.5% Dn/Up525.8% / 12.5% Score49.4 DownOpp3.697

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#4 US.BBY Best Buy · Consumer Discretionary

-1.51%

P25-3.83% Down64.2% Dn/Up513.3% / 3.3% Score47.9 DownOpp3.046

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#5 US.HCA HCA Healthcare · Health Care

-1.36%

P25-3.47% Down65.8% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score46.8 DownOpp2.991

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#6 US.LUV Southwest Airlines · Industrials

-1.40%

P25-3.08% Down66.7% Dn/Up510.8% / 3.3% Score44.5 DownOpp2.974

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#7 US.J Jacobs Solutions · Industrials

-1.28%

P25-3.00% Down69.2% Dn/Up58.3% / 4.2% Score56.9 DownOpp2.887

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#8 US.UAL United Airlines Holdings · Industrials

-1.40%

P25-3.14% Down65% Dn/Up511.7% / 3.3% Score44.9 DownOpp2.85

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#9 US.FDS FactSet · Financials

-1.50%

P25-3.86% Down62.5% Dn/Up514.2% / 4.2% Score58.9 DownOpp2.771

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#10 US.DAL Delta Air Lines · Industrials

-1.50%

P25-3.19% Down65% Dn/Up510.8% / 6.7% Score49.6 DownOpp2.723

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#11 US.DLTR Dollar Tree · Consumer Staples

-1.54%

P25-3.67% Down62.5% Dn/Up515.8% / 7.5% Score42.8 DownOpp2.687

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#12 US.IQV IQVIA · Health Care

-1.23%

P25-3.03% Down65% Dn/Up58.3% / 3.3% Score42.8 DownOpp2.669

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#13 US.TDG TransDigm Group · Industrials

-1.40%

P25-3.07% Down63.3% Dn/Up510.8% / 4.2% Score44.2 DownOpp2.648

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#14 US.ITW Illinois Tool Works · Industrials

-1.13%

P25-3.07% Down66.7% Dn/Up59.2% / 3.3% Score55.9 DownOpp2.616

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#15 US.TSCO Tractor Supply · Consumer Discretionary

-1.19%

P25-3.78% Down62.5% Dn/Up514.2% / 3.3% Score46.2 DownOpp2.591

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#16 US.KR Kroger · Consumer Staples

-1.09%

P25-2.94% Down64.2% Dn/Up55.8% / 0.8% Score57.2 DownOpp2.484

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#17 US.LULU Lululemon Athletica · Consumer Discretionary

-1.19%

P25-3.65% Down60.8% Dn/Up513.3% / 3.3% Score45.8 DownOpp2.425

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#18 US.CPAY Corpay · Financials

-1.12%

P25-4.26% Down62.5% Dn/Up515.8% / 7.5% Score50 DownOpp2.36

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#19 US.CCL Carnival Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-1.04%

P25-3.90% Down62.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 5% Score52.4 DownOpp2.322

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#20 US.MCK McKesson Corporation · Health Care

-0.98%

P25-2.74% Down63.3% Dn/Up58.3% / 1.7% Score48.9 DownOpp2.26

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#21 US.GWW W. W. Grainger · Industrials

-1.04%

P25-2.81% Down64.2% Dn/Up57.5% / 3.3% Score57.4 DownOpp2.25

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#22 US.VEEV Veeva Systems · Health Care

-0.99%

P25-3.78% Down62.5% Dn/Up510.8% / 5% Score51.3 DownOpp2.25

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#23 US.COR Cencora · Health Care

-0.88%

P25-2.44% Down63.3% Dn/Up55.8% / 0% Score55.3 DownOpp2.139

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#24 US.ROK Rockwell Automation · Industrials

-1.06%

P25-3.00% Down62.5% Dn/Up59.2% / 4.2% Score58 DownOpp2.123

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#25 US.EW Edwards Lifesciences · Health Care

-0.79%

P25-2.58% Down65% Dn/Up53.3% / 1.7% Score60.9 DownOpp2.076

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#26 US.TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific · Health Care

-1.02%

P25-3.51% Down61.7% Dn/Up59.2% / 6.7% Score48 DownOpp2.072

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#27 US.PCAR Paccar · Industrials

-1.17%

P25-3.02% Down61.7% Dn/Up57.5% / 6.7% Score52.8 DownOpp2.063

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#28 US.EL Estée Lauder Companies (The) · Consumer Staples

-1.10%

P25-2.75% Down63.3% Dn/Up58.3% / 6.7% Score53.5 DownOpp2.048

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#29 US.UBER Uber · Industrials

-1.17%

P25-2.97% Down62.5% Dn/Up58.3% / 7.5% Score58.5 DownOpp2.024

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#30 US.ARES Ares Management · Financials

-1.18%

P25-3.86% Down56.7% Dn/Up511.7% / 5% Score51.9 DownOpp1.992

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#31 US.SNA Snap-on · Industrials

-0.89%

P25-2.98% Down63.3% Dn/Up510% / 5% Score56.1 DownOpp1.978

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#32 US.COIN Coinbase · Financials

-1.23%

P25-4.17% Down57.5% Dn/Up515.8% / 8.3% Score53.8 DownOpp1.971

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#33 US.NVR NVR, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.83%

P25-3.78% Down60.8% Dn/Up512.5% / 5.8% Score49.6 DownOpp1.919

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#34 US.CRL Charles River Laboratories · Health Care

-0.94%

P25-3.08% Down59.2% Dn/Up59.2% / 4.2% Score45.4 DownOpp1.854

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#35 US.AMGN Amgen · Health Care

-0.81%

P25-2.80% Down60.8% Dn/Up59.2% / 3.3% Score51.5 DownOpp1.79

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#36 US.TECH Bio-Techne · Health Care

-0.92%

P25-2.85% Down59.2% Dn/Up510.8% / 5% Score45.4 DownOpp1.728

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#37 US.GILD Gilead Sciences · Health Care

-0.66%

P25-2.01% Down62.5% Dn/Up53.3% / 1.7% Score44.5 DownOpp1.727

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#38 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.92%

P25-3.34% Down59.2% Dn/Up513.3% / 7.5% Score46.2 DownOpp1.695

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#39 US.TKO TKO Group Holdings · Communication Services

-0.64%

P25-2.26% Down61.7% Dn/Up53.3% / 1.7% Score48.3 DownOpp1.677

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#40 US.RVTY Revvity · Health Care

-0.54%

P25-2.84% Down60% Dn/Up57.5% / 1.7% Score44.7 DownOpp1.613

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#41 US.KKR KKR & Co. · Financials

-0.83%

P25-3.37% Down58.3% Dn/Up510.8% / 5% Score57 DownOpp1.609

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#42 US.ABBV AbbVie · Health Care

-0.79%

P25-2.79% Down59.2% Dn/Up55.8% / 2.5% Score62.4 DownOpp1.606

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#43 US.ISRG Intuitive Surgical · Health Care

-0.67%

P25-2.80% Down60.8% Dn/Up57.5% / 4.2% Score50.7 DownOpp1.602

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#44 US.HOOD Robinhood Markets · Financials

-1.04%

P25-3.80% Down57.5% Dn/Up511.7% / 10% Score54.2 DownOpp1.584

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#45 US.LYV Live Nation Entertainment · Communication Services

-0.58%

P25-2.26% Down60.8% Dn/Up54.2% / 1.7% Score47.2 DownOpp1.553

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#46 US.FAST Fastenal · Industrials

-0.61%

P25-2.76% Down58.3% Dn/Up58.3% / 1.7% Score49.3 DownOpp1.492

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#47 US.GIS General Mills · Consumer Staples

-0.58%

P25-2.80% Down59.2% Dn/Up510% / 2.5% Score52.9 DownOpp1.469

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#48 US.SYY Sysco · Consumer Staples

-0.65%

P25-2.50% Down60% Dn/Up52.5% / 3.3% Score55.2 DownOpp1.463

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#49 US.NFLX Netflix · Communication Services

-0.56%

P25-2.25% Down61.7% Dn/Up52.5% / 4.2% Score47.8 DownOpp1.448

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#50 US.CPRT Copart · Industrials

-0.77%

P25-2.69% Down59.2% Dn/Up59.2% / 5% Score59.4 DownOpp1.433

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=120

US.EMR · -2.01% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking