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Downside opportunities

Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

Materialized projections ranked by downside median, downside probability, and score quality.

Calibration status

3D · n=120

Shared DOE best setting from the as-of run for this snapshot.

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-04-24
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-04-24
DOE window 2026-03-10 → 2026-04-21
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年6月25日 上午5:43 HKT
Rows 50
Excluded uptrends 181

Downside ranking

US.MOS · -1.82% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-1.82%
Top down rate70%
Top P25-4.90%
DOE score2.779

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.MOS Mosaic Company (The) · Materials

-1.82%

P25-4.90% Down70% Dn/Up524.2% / 4.2% Score39.9 DownOpp4.094
View chart 開富途
#2 US.ADP Automatic Data Processing · Industrials

-1.59%

P25-3.53% Down70.8% Dn/Up512.5% / 1.7% Score56.5 DownOpp3.611
View chart 開富途
#3 US.AMGN Amgen · Health Care

-1.35%

P25-2.94% Down73.3% Dn/Up54.2% / 0% Score57.7 DownOpp3.516
View chart 開富途
#4 US.SW Smurfit Westrock · Materials

-1.82%

P25-4.34% Down68.3% Dn/Up521.7% / 10.8% Score45.3 DownOpp3.381
View chart 開富途
#5 US.EFX Equifax · Industrials

-1.51%

P25-3.07% Down67.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score44 DownOpp3.198
View chart 開富途
#6 US.IEX IDEX Corporation · Industrials

-1.49%

P25-3.31% Down67.5% Dn/Up510.8% / 2.5% Score57.8 DownOpp3.134
View chart 開富途
#7 US.J Jacobs Solutions · Industrials

-1.37%

P25-3.29% Down67.5% Dn/Up510.8% / 1.7% Score55.7 DownOpp3.073
View chart 開富途
#8 US.CAG Conagra Brands · Consumer Staples

-1.89%

P25-3.31% Down64.2% Dn/Up515% / 7.5% Score46.8 DownOpp3.053
View chart 開富途
#9 US.CLX Clorox · Consumer Staples

-1.67%

P25-3.92% Down62.5% Dn/Up515.8% / 5.8% Score39.5 DownOpp3.006
View chart 開富途
#10 US.BF.B Brown–Forman · Consumer Staples

-1.56%

P25-2.95% Down67.5% Dn/Up510% / 5.8% Score59.2 DownOpp2.906
View chart 開富途
#11 US.EL Estée Lauder Companies (The) · Consumer Staples

-1.56%

P25-2.89% Down68.3% Dn/Up57.5% / 6.7% Score60.1 DownOpp2.894
View chart 開富途
#12 US.FAST Fastenal · Industrials

-1.29%

P25-3.05% Down67.5% Dn/Up59.2% / 3.3% Score50.4 DownOpp2.877
View chart 開富途
#13 US.A Agilent Technologies · Health Care

-1.15%

P25-2.60% Down70% Dn/Up54.2% / 0.8% Score63.8 DownOpp2.874
View chart 開富途
#14 US.IFF International Flavors & Fragrances · Materials

-1.82%

P25-4.53% Down64.2% Dn/Up522.5% / 15% Score50.3 DownOpp2.811
View chart 開富途
#15 US.IP International Paper · Materials

-1.41%

P25-3.90% Down65.8% Dn/Up517.5% / 10% Score41.9 DownOpp2.735
View chart 開富途
#16 US.DGX Quest Diagnostics · Health Care

-1.28%

P25-2.84% Down65.8% Dn/Up53.3% / 1.7% Score59.9 DownOpp2.703
View chart 開富途
#17 US.DG Dollar General · Consumer Staples

-1.56%

P25-3.04% Down65% Dn/Up511.7% / 7.5% Score56.2 DownOpp2.649
View chart 開富途
#18 US.AOS A. O. Smith · Industrials

-1.29%

P25-3.53% Down63.3% Dn/Up511.7% / 4.2% Score52.9 DownOpp2.588
View chart 開富途
#19 US.RVTY Revvity · Health Care

-0.98%

P25-3.31% Down65.8% Dn/Up510% / 2.5% Score44.5 DownOpp2.588
View chart 開富途
#20 US.CI Cigna · Health Care

-1.02%

P25-2.48% Down69.2% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score62.3 DownOpp2.559
View chart 開富途
#21 US.IQV IQVIA · Health Care

-1.23%

P25-2.97% Down63.3% Dn/Up58.3% / 3.3% Score43.1 DownOpp2.515
View chart 開富途
#22 US.DLTR Dollar Tree · Consumer Staples

-1.45%

P25-3.04% Down63.3% Dn/Up510.8% / 6.7% Score52.3 DownOpp2.48
View chart 開富途
#23 US.CPT Camden Property Trust · Real Estate

-0.69%

P25-2.72% Down69.2% Dn/Up50.8% / 0.8% Score55.3 DownOpp2.443
View chart 開富途
#24 US.STZ Constellation Brands · Consumer Staples

-1.46%

P25-3.04% Down62.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 6.7% Score55.7 DownOpp2.4
View chart 開富途
#25 US.CARR Carrier Global · Industrials

-1.18%

P25-3.52% Down65% Dn/Up514.2% / 7.5% Score58.3 DownOpp2.373
View chart 開富途
#26 US.KVUE Kenvue · Consumer Staples

-1.18%

P25-3.24% Down65% Dn/Up56.7% / 5.8% Score63.8 DownOpp2.364
View chart 開富途
#27 US.BIIB Biogen · Health Care

-1.10%

P25-2.88% Down68.3% Dn/Up58.3% / 6.7% Score69.2 DownOpp2.363
View chart 開富途
#28 US.VLTO Veralto · Industrials

-1.06%

P25-3.17% Down63.3% Dn/Up57.5% / 4.2% Score54.3 DownOpp2.257
View chart 開富途
#29 US.WAT Waters Corporation · Health Care

-0.97%

P25-3.58% Down63.3% Dn/Up59.2% / 5% Score51.6 DownOpp2.242
View chart 開富途
#30 US.VRSK Verisk Analytics · Industrials

-1.06%

P25-2.85% Down62.5% Dn/Up56.7% / 2.5% Score55.9 DownOpp2.203
View chart 開富途
#31 US.GIS General Mills · Consumer Staples

-0.98%

P25-2.97% Down62.5% Dn/Up59.2% / 2.5% Score54.1 DownOpp2.167
View chart 開富途
#32 US.STE Steris · Health Care

-0.58%

P25-2.69% Down66.7% Dn/Up57.5% / 0.8% Score52.2 DownOpp2.149
View chart 開富途
#33 US.CCI Crown Castle · Real Estate

-0.60%

P25-2.41% Down67.5% Dn/Up50.8% / 0.8% Score54.9 DownOpp2.143
View chart 開富途
#34 US.VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

-0.71%

P25-2.47% Down65% Dn/Up54.2% / 0.8% Score54.1 DownOpp2.074
View chart 開富途
#35 US.BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway · Financials

-0.76%

P25-2.66% Down64.2% Dn/Up54.2% / 2.5% Score46.2 DownOpp2.065
View chart 開富途
#36 US.ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities · Real Estate

-0.78%

P25-2.67% Down64.2% Dn/Up53.3% / 1.7% Score56.2 DownOpp2.06
View chart 開富途
#37 US.AMCR Amcor · Materials

-1.34%

P25-4.37% Down61.7% Dn/Up521.7% / 15.8% Score50 DownOpp2.046
View chart 開富途
#38 US.KMB Kimberly-Clark · Consumer Staples

-1.01%

P25-2.86% Down63.3% Dn/Up55.8% / 5% Score61.9 DownOpp2.025
View chart 開富途
#39 US.UBER Uber · Industrials

-1.17%

P25-2.99% Down60% Dn/Up510% / 4.2% Score59 DownOpp2.023
View chart 開富途
#40 US.UHS Universal Health Services · Health Care

-1.14%

P25-2.67% Down62.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 5.8% Score59.3 DownOpp2.015
View chart 開富途
#41 US.MO Altria · Consumer Staples

-0.87%

P25-2.54% Down66.7% Dn/Up52.5% / 5% Score71.7 DownOpp2.003
View chart 開富途
#42 US.TYL Tyler Technologies · Information Technology

-1.17%

P25-4.92% Down55.8% Dn/Up525% / 8.3% Score57.6 DownOpp1.934
View chart 開富途
#43 US.SJM J.M. Smucker Company (The) · Consumer Staples

-0.81%

P25-2.73% Down65.8% Dn/Up55.8% / 5% Score70.1 DownOpp1.931
View chart 開富途
#44 US.CSGP CoStar Group · Real Estate

-0.69%

P25-2.48% Down64.2% Dn/Up52.5% / 1.7% Score55.1 DownOpp1.931
View chart 開富途
#45 US.CPRT Copart · Industrials

-0.99%

P25-3.04% Down60% Dn/Up58.3% / 3.3% Score58.8 DownOpp1.911
View chart 開富途
#46 US.BDX Becton Dickinson · Health Care

-0.78%

P25-2.80% Down63.3% Dn/Up511.7% / 4.2% Score51.3 DownOpp1.907
View chart 開富途
#47 US.HRL Hormel Foods · Consumer Staples

-0.83%

P25-2.73% Down65% Dn/Up55.8% / 5% Score68.9 DownOpp1.896
View chart 開富途
#48 US.FIS Fidelity National Information Services · Financials

-1.12%

P25-4.26% Down56.7% Dn/Up515.8% / 7.5% Score50.7 DownOpp1.891
View chart 開富途
#49 US.AVY Avery Dennison · Materials

-0.93%

P25-3.67% Down58.3% Dn/Up516.7% / 4.2% Score50.3 DownOpp1.882
View chart 開富途
#50 US.CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill · Consumer Discretionary

-0.73%

P25-3.04% Down62.5% Dn/Up58.3% / 4.2% Score49.3 DownOpp1.868
View chart 開富途