S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.CAG · -1.48% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-1.48%

Top down rate66.3%

Top P25-3.40%

DOE score2.964

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.CAG Conagra Brands · Consumer Staples

-1.48%

P25-3.40% Down66.3% Dn/Up513.8% / 3.1% Score46.5 DownOpp3.099

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#2 US.IVZ Invesco · Financials

-1.61%

P25-3.87% Down63.1% Dn/Up513.1% / 5% Score48.9 DownOpp2.959

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#3 US.DG Dollar General · Consumer Staples

-1.46%

P25-3.38% Down63.8% Dn/Up513.8% / 5% Score53.9 DownOpp2.705

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#4 US.MOS Mosaic Company (The) · Materials

-1.58%

P25-4.32% Down63.1% Dn/Up521.3% / 11.9% Score47.7 DownOpp2.636

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#5 US.ZBH Zimmer Biomet · Health Care

-1.11%

P25-2.64% Down65% Dn/Up51.9% / 0.6% Score59.1 DownOpp2.491

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#6 US.DLTR Dollar Tree · Consumer Staples

-1.16%

P25-3.34% Down63.1% Dn/Up511.3% / 5% Score42.6 DownOpp2.424

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#7 US.EXPD Expeditors International · Industrials

-1.09%

P25-3.16% Down62.5% Dn/Up511.3% / 1.9% Score50.8 DownOpp2.385

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#8 US.BR Broadridge Financial Solutions · Industrials

-1.02%

P25-3.05% Down61.9% Dn/Up511.9% / 2.5% Score44.6 DownOpp2.25

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#9 US.COR Cencora · Health Care

-0.89%

P25-2.80% Down62.5% Dn/Up53.8% / 0% Score56.3 DownOpp2.168

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#10 US.DHR Danaher Corporation · Health Care

-0.85%

P25-2.82% Down62.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score55.7 DownOpp2.137

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#11 US.DPZ Domino's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.81%

P25-2.96% Down64.4% Dn/Up59.4% / 5% Score50.4 DownOpp2.024

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#12 US.FDS FactSet · Financials

-1.02%

P25-3.89% Down59.4% Dn/Up513.1% / 5.6% Score54.2 DownOpp2.002

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#13 US.UNP Union Pacific Corporation · Industrials

-0.75%

P25-2.82% Down62.5% Dn/Up58.1% / 1.3% Score65.7 DownOpp1.884

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#14 US.SYK Stryker Corporation · Health Care

-0.80%

P25-2.80% Down60% Dn/Up54.4% / 0.6% Score60.5 DownOpp1.81

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#15 US.CPRT Copart · Industrials

-0.78%

P25-2.96% Down61.3% Dn/Up59.4% / 4.4% Score52.9 DownOpp1.763

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#16 US.HSY Hershey Company (The) · Consumer Staples

-0.62%

P25-2.96% Down60.6% Dn/Up58.1% / 1.3% Score51.6 DownOpp1.743

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#17 US.TSLA Tesla, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.60%

P25-3.41% Down62.5% Dn/Up511.9% / 6.9% Score41.3 DownOpp1.729

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#18 US.TSCO Tractor Supply · Consumer Discretionary

-0.83%

P25-3.64% Down60.6% Dn/Up513.8% / 8.1% Score55.2 DownOpp1.688

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#19 US.GILD Gilead Sciences · Health Care

-0.62%

P25-2.88% Down59.4% Dn/Up55.6% / 0% Score56.8 DownOpp1.666

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#20 US.BRO Brown & Brown · Financials

-0.87%

P25-3.73% Down57.5% Dn/Up511.3% / 5.6% Score54.8 DownOpp1.656

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#21 US.DAL Delta Air Lines · Industrials

-0.95%

P25-3.29% Down60% Dn/Up511.3% / 7.5% Score63.5 DownOpp1.646

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#22 US.INCY Incyte · Health Care

-0.66%

P25-2.48% Down60.6% Dn/Up53.1% / 0.6% Score60.1 DownOpp1.641

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#23 US.ZTS Zoetis · Health Care

-0.66%

P25-2.51% Down60% Dn/Up53.1% / 0.6% Score60.9 DownOpp1.595

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#24 US.PM Philip Morris International · Consumer Staples

-0.90%

P25-2.64% Down58.1% Dn/Up53.8% / 3.1% Score57.9 DownOpp1.588

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#25 US.IDXX Idexx Laboratories · Health Care

-0.74%

P25-2.70% Down58.1% Dn/Up56.3% / 1.3% Score54 DownOpp1.58

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#26 US.NOC Northrop Grumman · Industrials

-0.74%

P25-2.52% Down58.1% Dn/Up55% / 1.3% Score49.7 DownOpp1.567

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#27 US.ABBV AbbVie · Health Care

-0.54%

P25-2.46% Down60% Dn/Up55.6% / 0% Score54.9 DownOpp1.543

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#28 US.AVY Avery Dennison · Materials

-0.75%

P25-3.18% Down60% Dn/Up513.1% / 6.3% Score57.7 DownOpp1.534

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#29 US.PFE Pfizer · Health Care

-0.58%

P25-2.64% Down59.4% Dn/Up56.3% / 1.3% Score53 DownOpp1.517

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#30 US.FFIV F5, Inc. · Information Technology

-0.90%

P25-3.70% Down57.5% Dn/Up518.1% / 8.8% Score51.9 DownOpp1.508

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#31 US.UBER Uber · Industrials

-0.65%

P25-2.59% Down58.1% Dn/Up55% / 1.3% Score49.5 DownOpp1.496

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#32 US.DELL Dell Technologies · Information Technology

-1.02%

P25-4.35% Down56.3% Dn/Up523.8% / 10.6% Score64.2 DownOpp1.494

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#33 US.SJM J.M. Smucker Company (The) · Consumer Staples

-0.57%

P25-2.54% Down59.4% Dn/Up57.5% / 1.3% Score51.6 DownOpp1.492

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#34 US.BBY Best Buy · Consumer Discretionary

-0.59%

P25-3.63% Down59.4% Dn/Up512.5% / 6.3% Score53.4 DownOpp1.471

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#35 US.TRMB Trimble Inc. · Information Technology

-0.89%

P25-3.87% Down58.1% Dn/Up518.8% / 10.6% Score53.3 DownOpp1.47

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#36 US.WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation · Financials

-0.66%

P25-2.70% Down58.1% Dn/Up58.8% / 1.3% Score58.5 DownOpp1.466

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#37 US.KR Kroger · Consumer Staples

-0.53%

P25-2.70% Down58.1% Dn/Up57.5% / 0.6% Score49.6 DownOpp1.445

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#38 US.EW Edwards Lifesciences · Health Care

-0.68%

P25-2.57% Down58.1% Dn/Up56.3% / 2.5% Score53.1 DownOpp1.422

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#39 US.DASH DoorDash · Consumer Discretionary

-0.73%

P25-2.99% Down58.1% Dn/Up510.6% / 5.6% Score51.3 DownOpp1.405

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#40 US.HSIC Henry Schein · Health Care

-0.64%

P25-2.42% Down58.8% Dn/Up54.4% / 1.3% Score62.2 DownOpp1.404

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#41 US.CI Cigna · Health Care

-0.58%

P25-2.59% Down58.8% Dn/Up55% / 0.6% Score66.2 DownOpp1.399

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#42 US.PKG Packaging Corporation of America · Materials

-0.82%

P25-3.19% Down56.9% Dn/Up513.1% / 6.3% Score53.1 DownOpp1.393

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#43 US.NKE Nike, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.62%

P25-3.29% Down60.6% Dn/Up58.8% / 10% Score41.2 DownOpp1.381

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#44 US.AMGN Amgen · Health Care

-0.71%

P25-2.75% Down57.5% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score62.8 DownOpp1.377

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#45 US.DOC Healthpeak Properties · Real Estate

-0.38%

P25-1.96% Down61.3% Dn/Up53.8% / 0.6% Score50.2 DownOpp1.361

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#46 US.MSI Motorola Solutions · Information Technology

-0.82%

P25-2.52% Down55.6% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score52 DownOpp1.358

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#47 US.VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

-0.68%

P25-2.70% Down58.1% Dn/Up510% / 4.4% Score51 DownOpp1.357

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#48 US.KKR KKR & Co. · Financials

-0.68%

P25-3.58% Down56.3% Dn/Up510.6% / 5% Score56.6 DownOpp1.354

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#49 US.BDX Becton Dickinson · Health Care

-0.57%

P25-2.58% Down58.8% Dn/Up58.8% / 3.1% Score51 DownOpp1.35

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#50 US.WM Waste Management · Industrials

-0.53%

P25-2.99% Down58.8% Dn/Up58.8% / 3.8% Score54.5 DownOpp1.345

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=160

US.CAG · -1.48% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking