S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.IP · -2.80% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-2.80%

Top down rate82.5%

Top P25-5.38%

DOE score2.441

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.IP International Paper · Materials

-2.80%

P25-5.38% Down82.5% Dn/Up530% / 5% Score43.3 DownOpp6.12

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#2 US.SW Smurfit Westrock · Materials

-3.25%

P25-5.53% Down75% Dn/Up532.5% / 5% Score45.6 DownOpp5.991

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#3 US.DLTR Dollar Tree · Consumer Staples

-2.70%

P25-4.45% Down77.5% Dn/Up520% / 0% Score43.1 DownOpp5.689

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#4 US.EL Estée Lauder Companies (The) · Consumer Staples

-2.19%

P25-4.23% Down80% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score33 DownOpp5.25

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#5 US.BDX Becton Dickinson · Health Care

-1.86%

P25-3.61% Down82.5% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score47 DownOpp5.01

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#6 US.ECL Ecolab · Materials

-2.03%

P25-3.72% Down80% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score51.8 DownOpp4.972

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#7 US.DG Dollar General · Consumer Staples

-2.21%

P25-3.86% Down75% Dn/Up517.5% / 5% Score39.3 DownOpp4.58

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#8 US.COF Capital One · Financials

-1.56%

P25-2.94% Down82.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score46.7 DownOpp4.545

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#9 US.BLDR Builders FirstSource · Industrials

-2.20%

P25-3.81% Down72.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score41.7 DownOpp4.49

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#10 US.BALL Ball Corporation · Materials

-2.02%

P25-3.35% Down75% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score49.5 DownOpp4.486

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#11 US.MMM 3M · Industrials

-2.21%

P25-3.17% Down72.5% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score46 DownOpp4.458

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#12 US.APO Apollo Global Management · Financials

-1.89%

P25-5.39% Down72.5% Dn/Up527.5% / 2.5% Score61.9 DownOpp4.423

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#13 US.CRH CRH plc · Materials

-2.02%

P25-5.04% Down72.5% Dn/Up527.5% / 5% Score51.3 DownOpp4.395

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#14 US.NTRS Northern Trust · Financials

-1.97%

P25-3.15% Down75% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score56.9 DownOpp4.331

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#15 US.ANET Arista Networks · Information Technology

-2.66%

P25-5.19% Down67.5% Dn/Up527.5% / 12.5% Score41.9 DownOpp4.293

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#16 US.MET MetLife · Financials

-1.77%

P25-3.39% Down75% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score49 DownOpp4.25

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#17 US.CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill · Consumer Discretionary

-1.42%

P25-3.50% Down80% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score41.3 DownOpp4.235

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#18 US.LULU Lululemon Athletica · Consumer Discretionary

-1.91%

P25-3.50% Down77.5% Dn/Up515% / 7.5% Score43.1 DownOpp4.212

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#19 US.PHM PulteGroup · Consumer Discretionary

-1.90%

P25-4.14% Down72.5% Dn/Up515% / 5% Score43.2 DownOpp4.111

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#20 US.KKR KKR & Co. · Financials

-2.47%

P25-4.26% Down67.5% Dn/Up510% / 7.5% Score52.2 DownOpp4.094

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#21 US.VEEV Veeva Systems · Health Care

-2.24%

P25-3.77% Down70% Dn/Up512.5% / 7.5% Score40.2 DownOpp4.031

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#22 US.KDP Keurig Dr Pepper · Consumer Staples

-1.62%

P25-3.60% Down75% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score52.6 DownOpp3.975

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#23 US.ELV Elevance Health · Health Care

-1.62%

P25-3.52% Down75% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score50.3 DownOpp3.973

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#24 US.YUM Yum! Brands · Consumer Discretionary

-2.29%

P25-3.34% Down70% Dn/Up510% / 7.5% Score43.7 DownOpp3.947

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#25 US.LDOS Leidos · Industrials

-1.27%

P25-3.12% Down77.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score41.7 DownOpp3.937

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#26 US.AOS A. O. Smith · Industrials

-1.87%

P25-3.15% Down70% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score46.6 DownOpp3.908

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#27 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-2.48%

P25-3.61% Down65% Dn/Up515% / 5% Score50.5 DownOpp3.904

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#28 US.PNR Pentair · Industrials

-2.01%

P25-3.37% Down67.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score47.4 DownOpp3.897

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#29 US.KIM Kimco Realty · Real Estate

-1.12%

P25-2.18% Down82.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score49.3 DownOpp3.895

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#30 US.NSC Norfolk Southern · Industrials

-1.74%

P25-3.38% Down72.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score46.5 DownOpp3.886

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#31 US.EFX Equifax · Industrials

-1.99%

P25-3.43% Down70% Dn/Up517.5% / 5% Score38.3 DownOpp3.86

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#32 US.J Jacobs Solutions · Industrials

-2.03%

P25-3.18% Down67.5% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score49.6 DownOpp3.853

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#33 US.KEY KeyCorp · Financials

-1.74%

P25-3.59% Down70% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score52.2 DownOpp3.846

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#34 US.LOW Lowe's · Consumer Discretionary

-1.83%

P25-3.26% Down75% Dn/Up55% / 7.5% Score47.6 DownOpp3.838

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#35 US.SBUX Starbucks · Consumer Discretionary

-2.25%

P25-3.17% Down65% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score36.6 DownOpp3.818

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#36 US.IBM IBM · Information Technology

-1.61%

P25-3.64% Down70% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score43.6 DownOpp3.793

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#37 US.AAPL Apple Inc. · Information Technology

-1.36%

P25-3.02% Down75% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score45.8 DownOpp3.772

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#38 US.TFC Truist Financial · Financials

-1.17%

P25-2.75% Down77.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score48.3 DownOpp3.695

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#39 US.BBY Best Buy · Consumer Discretionary

-1.57%

P25-3.96% Down72.5% Dn/Up510% / 5% Score50.8 DownOpp3.679

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#40 US.PODD Insulet Corporation · Health Care

-2.24%

P25-3.72% Down67.5% Dn/Up510% / 10% Score40.1 DownOpp3.669

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#41 US.AXP American Express · Financials

-1.94%

P25-2.77% Down67.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score56 DownOpp3.613

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#42 US.NVDA Nvidia · Information Technology

-1.56%

P25-4.47% Down65% Dn/Up520% / 0% Score40.2 DownOpp3.576

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#43 US.EG Everest Group · Financials

-1.67%

P25-2.84% Down70% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score54.3 DownOpp3.573

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#44 US.STT State Street Corporation · Financials

-1.73%

P25-2.61% Down70% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score57.8 DownOpp3.549

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#45 US.QCOM Qualcomm · Information Technology

-1.89%

P25-4.02% Down62.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score48.3 DownOpp3.533

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#46 US.AZO AutoZone · Consumer Discretionary

-2.02%

P25-3.02% Down65% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score39.4 DownOpp3.529

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#47 US.CPRT Copart · Industrials

-1.65%

P25-3.26% Down67.5% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score45.2 DownOpp3.526

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#48 US.CSCO Cisco · Information Technology

-1.52%

P25-3.13% Down70% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score50.5 DownOpp3.524

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#49 US.GILD Gilead Sciences · Health Care

-0.94%

P25-2.78% Down77.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score46.2 DownOpp3.489

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#50 US.CAG Conagra Brands · Consumer Staples

-1.71%

P25-4.07% Down67.5% Dn/Up515% / 5% Score47.2 DownOpp3.474

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=40

US.IP · -2.80% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking