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Downside opportunities

Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

Materialized projections ranked by downside median, downside probability, and score quality.

Calibration status

3D · n=40

Shared DOE best setting from the as-of run for this snapshot.

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-03-26
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-03-26
DOE window 2026-02-09 → 2026-03-23
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年7月8日 下午12:38 HKT
Rows 50
Excluded uptrends 120

Downside ranking

US.MKC · -3.58% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-3.58%
Top down rate80%
Top P25-6.13%
DOE score2.309

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.MKC McCormick & Company · Consumer Staples

-3.58%

P25-6.13% Down80% Dn/Up535% / 0% Score42.6 DownOpp7.193
View chart 開富途
#2 US.CAG Conagra Brands · Consumer Staples

-3.18%

P25-4.88% Down87.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 2.5% Score36.9 DownOpp6.973
View chart 開富途
#3 US.CLX Clorox · Consumer Staples

-3.58%

P25-5.35% Down77.5% Dn/Up532.5% / 0% Score41.1 DownOpp6.809
View chart 開富途
#4 US.DG Dollar General · Consumer Staples

-3.31%

P25-5.10% Down80% Dn/Up527.5% / 0% Score42.9 DownOpp6.663
View chart 開富途
#5 US.DLTR Dollar Tree · Consumer Staples

-2.98%

P25-4.76% Down82.5% Dn/Up520% / 0% Score44.8 DownOpp6.434
View chart 開富途
#6 US.KHC Kraft Heinz · Consumer Staples

-2.41%

P25-3.67% Down82.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score39.1 DownOpp5.484
View chart 開富途
#7 US.EL Estée Lauder Companies (The) · Consumer Staples

-2.26%

P25-4.27% Down80% Dn/Up515% / 5% Score34.8 DownOpp5.166
View chart 開富途
#8 US.IBKR Interactive Brokers · Financials

-2.45%

P25-4.57% Down72.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 0% Score50.3 DownOpp5.015
View chart 開富途
#9 US.CL Colgate-Palmolive · Consumer Staples

-1.85%

P25-3.52% Down82.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score42.1 DownOpp5.014
View chart 開富途
#10 US.ROK Rockwell Automation · Industrials

-2.31%

P25-3.24% Down77.5% Dn/Up510% / 2.5% Score46.1 DownOpp4.824
View chart 開富途
#11 US.BALL Ball Corporation · Materials

-2.08%

P25-4.26% Down75% Dn/Up520% / 0% Score51.9 DownOpp4.756
View chart 開富途
#12 US.KDP Keurig Dr Pepper · Consumer Staples

-1.76%

P25-3.52% Down80% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score44 DownOpp4.71
View chart 開富途
#13 US.PEP PepsiCo · Consumer Staples

-1.70%

P25-2.98% Down82.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score45.6 DownOpp4.703
View chart 開富途
#14 US.EXPD Expeditors International · Industrials

-2.04%

P25-3.18% Down77.5% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score45.5 DownOpp4.694
View chart 開富途
#15 US.DOC Healthpeak Properties · Real Estate

-1.93%

P25-3.61% Down77.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score47.1 DownOpp4.679
View chart 開富途
#16 US.PM Philip Morris International · Consumer Staples

-1.85%

P25-3.42% Down75% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score41.3 DownOpp4.395
View chart 開富途
#17 US.EXPE Expedia Group · Consumer Discretionary

-1.64%

P25-3.28% Down80% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score54.4 DownOpp4.302
View chart 開富途
#18 US.MNST Monster Beverage · Consumer Staples

-1.59%

P25-3.06% Down77.5% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score46.5 DownOpp4.206
View chart 開富途
#19 US.SJM J.M. Smucker Company (The) · Consumer Staples

-1.70%

P25-3.06% Down75% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score45.3 DownOpp4.125
View chart 開富途
#20 US.CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill · Consumer Discretionary

-1.48%

P25-4.29% Down75% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score42.9 DownOpp4.081
View chart 開富途
#21 US.XYL Xylem Inc. · Industrials

-2.18%

P25-3.27% Down67.5% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score46 DownOpp4.053
View chart 開富途
#22 US.WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-1.64%

P25-3.50% Down77.5% Dn/Up510% / 5% Score53.7 DownOpp4.012
View chart 開富途
#23 US.LEN Lennar · Consumer Discretionary

-1.48%

P25-4.29% Down75% Dn/Up515% / 5% Score42.9 DownOpp3.931
View chart 開富途
#24 US.XYZ Block, Inc. · Financials

-2.24%

P25-4.12% Down65% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score53.6 DownOpp3.918
View chart 開富途
#25 US.AMD Advanced Micro Devices · Information Technology

-2.06%

P25-5.20% Down70% Dn/Up527.5% / 10% Score62.4 DownOpp3.892
View chart 開富途
#26 US.GWW W. W. Grainger · Industrials

-1.90%

P25-2.75% Down72.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score50.4 DownOpp3.859
View chart 開富途
#27 US.SBAC SBA Communications · Real Estate

-1.82%

P25-3.25% Down70% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score41.3 DownOpp3.773
View chart 開富途
#28 US.PLD Prologis · Real Estate

-1.24%

P25-3.40% Down75% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score44.2 DownOpp3.758
View chart 開富途
#29 US.ARES Ares Management · Financials

-2.33%

P25-5.13% Down67.5% Dn/Up527.5% / 15% Score48.5 DownOpp3.749
View chart 開富途
#30 US.AVY Avery Dennison · Materials

-1.93%

P25-3.87% Down67.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score53.3 DownOpp3.748
View chart 開富途
#31 US.SPG Simon Property Group · Real Estate

-1.57%

P25-3.28% Down72.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score41.3 DownOpp3.73
View chart 開富途
#32 US.SBUX Starbucks · Consumer Discretionary

-1.76%

P25-3.26% Down67.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score39.8 DownOpp3.677
View chart 開富途
#33 US.KIM Kimco Realty · Real Estate

-1.43%

P25-3.13% Down72.5% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score48.3 DownOpp3.65
View chart 開富途
#34 US.ECL Ecolab · Materials

-1.51%

P25-4.10% Down67.5% Dn/Up520% / 0% Score50.3 DownOpp3.558
View chart 開富途
#35 US.INVH Invitation Homes · Real Estate

-1.15%

P25-2.84% Down75% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score46.3 DownOpp3.513
View chart 開富途
#36 US.MSFT Microsoft · Information Technology

-1.60%

P25-3.85% Down67.5% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score45.7 DownOpp3.47
View chart 開富途
#37 US.KMB Kimberly-Clark · Consumer Staples

-1.32%

P25-4.08% Down72.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 5% Score52.7 DownOpp3.445
View chart 開富途
#38 US.APTV Aptiv · Consumer Discretionary

-0.96%

P25-3.24% Down77.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score50.3 DownOpp3.443
View chart 開富途
#39 US.RCL Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Discretionary

-1.61%

P25-3.55% Down72.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 7.5% Score54.4 DownOpp3.44
View chart 開富途
#40 US.WM Waste Management · Industrials

-1.10%

P25-3.15% Down72.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score39.3 DownOpp3.393
View chart 開富途
#41 US.SWK Stanley Black & Decker · Industrials

-2.14%

P25-3.25% Down67.5% Dn/Up515% / 10% Score48.6 DownOpp3.388
View chart 開富途
#42 US.CCL Carnival Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-1.94%

P25-4.54% Down70% Dn/Up525% / 15% Score51.7 DownOpp3.387
View chart 開富途
#43 US.EFX Equifax · Industrials

-2.01%

P25-3.36% Down62.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score41.9 DownOpp3.386
View chart 開富途
#44 US.ISRG Intuitive Surgical · Health Care

-0.99%

P25-2.95% Down75% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score47.3 DownOpp3.373
View chart 開富途
#45 US.WY Weyerhaeuser · Real Estate

-1.13%

P25-2.96% Down75% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score49.8 DownOpp3.347
View chart 開富途
#46 US.KKR KKR & Co. · Financials

-1.81%

P25-3.93% Down67.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 7.5% Score52.9 DownOpp3.346
View chart 開富途
#47 US.TSCO Tractor Supply · Consumer Discretionary

-1.76%

P25-3.35% Down65% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score42.5 DownOpp3.329
View chart 開富途
#48 US.TECH Bio-Techne · Health Care

-1.31%

P25-3.87% Down67.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score47.9 DownOpp3.318
View chart 開富途
#49 US.DHR Danaher Corporation · Health Care

-1.18%

P25-1.89% Down75% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score45 DownOpp3.315
View chart 開富途
#50 US.C Citigroup · Financials

-1.41%

P25-3.72% Down67.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score58.6 DownOpp3.301
View chart 開富途