S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.DG · -3.32% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-3.32%

Top down rate87.5%

Top P25-4.94%

DOE score2.361

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.DG Dollar General · Consumer Staples

-3.32%

P25-4.94% Down87.5% Dn/Up525% / 0% Score37.2 DownOpp7.276

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#2 US.CAG Conagra Brands · Consumer Staples

-3.18%

P25-4.94% Down87.5% Dn/Up525% / 0% Score31.7 DownOpp7.177

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#3 US.CLX Clorox · Consumer Staples

-3.18%

P25-4.94% Down87.5% Dn/Up525% / 0% Score34 DownOpp7.16

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#4 US.IFF International Flavors & Fragrances · Materials

-2.87%

P25-6.06% Down87.5% Dn/Up530% / 0% Score39.3 DownOpp7.09

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#5 US.BF.B Brown–Forman · Consumer Staples

-3.01%

P25-4.94% Down87.5% Dn/Up525% / 0% Score37.4 DownOpp6.965

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#6 US.NUE Nucor · Materials

-2.21%

P25-4.21% Down90% Dn/Up517.5% / 0% Score47.6 DownOpp6.106

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#7 US.ECL Ecolab · Materials

-2.21%

P25-4.25% Down87.5% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score52.6 DownOpp5.878

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#8 US.TXN Texas Instruments · Information Technology

-3.18%

P25-6.20% Down75% Dn/Up535% / 10% Score53.3 DownOpp5.73

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#9 US.MLM Martin Marietta Materials · Materials

-2.32%

P25-3.61% Down85% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score44.8 DownOpp5.687

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#10 US.SHW Sherwin-Williams · Materials

-2.21%

P25-3.79% Down85% Dn/Up517.5% / 0% Score45.6 DownOpp5.616

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#11 US.TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company · Consumer Staples

-2.26%

P25-3.64% Down82.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score41.4 DownOpp5.459

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#12 US.BALL Ball Corporation · Materials

-2.09%

P25-3.60% Down85% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score48 DownOpp5.43

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#13 US.AVY Avery Dennison · Materials

-2.62%

P25-4.63% Down75% Dn/Up525% / 2.5% Score41.8 DownOpp5.314

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#14 US.PKG Packaging Corporation of America · Materials

-2.28%

P25-3.61% Down80% Dn/Up517.5% / 0% Score40.4 DownOpp5.28

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#15 US.MNST Monster Beverage · Consumer Staples

-1.88%

P25-3.08% Down85% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score45.1 DownOpp5.112

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#16 US.AMCR Amcor · Materials

-2.10%

P25-3.58% Down80% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score43 DownOpp5.073

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#17 US.VRSK Verisk Analytics · Industrials

-2.33%

P25-3.65% Down77.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score46.5 DownOpp4.944

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#18 US.HUM Humana · Health Care

-1.77%

P25-3.24% Down85% Dn/Up50% / 2.5% Score52.3 DownOpp4.838

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#19 US.MA Mastercard · Financials

-1.96%

P25-3.27% Down80% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score48.1 DownOpp4.817

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#20 US.NKE Nike, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-2.34%

P25-3.67% Down75% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score39.8 DownOpp4.809

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#21 US.PM Philip Morris International · Consumer Staples

-2.06%

P25-3.40% Down77.5% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score44.1 DownOpp4.779

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#22 US.FIS Fidelity National Information Services · Financials

-2.54%

P25-4.36% Down72.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 5% Score49.5 DownOpp4.759

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#23 US.ROL Rollins, Inc. · Industrials

-1.84%

P25-3.12% Down80% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score42.4 DownOpp4.702

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#24 US.GIS General Mills · Consumer Staples

-1.98%

P25-3.98% Down75% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score40.7 DownOpp4.67

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#25 US.FDS FactSet · Financials

-2.31%

P25-4.57% Down72.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 5% Score50.8 DownOpp4.572

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#26 US.RCL Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Discretionary

-2.66%

P25-4.55% Down70% Dn/Up525% / 7.5% Score51.8 DownOpp4.559

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#27 US.ISRG Intuitive Surgical · Health Care

-1.43%

P25-3.91% Down80% Dn/Up517.5% / 0% Score46.7 DownOpp4.457

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#28 US.HON Honeywell · Industrials

-1.84%

P25-3.63% Down75% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score39.7 DownOpp4.45

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#29 US.FAST Fastenal · Industrials

-1.84%

P25-3.53% Down75% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score43.2 DownOpp4.399

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#30 US.LOW Lowe's · Consumer Discretionary

-2.15%

P25-4.91% Down70% Dn/Up522.5% / 5% Score43.8 DownOpp4.349

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#31 US.PCAR Paccar · Industrials

-1.69%

P25-3.89% Down75% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score43.7 DownOpp4.335

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#32 US.VMC Vulcan Materials Company · Materials

-1.71%

P25-3.79% Down75% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score49.6 DownOpp4.286

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#33 US.NDSN Nordson Corporation · Industrials

-2.03%

P25-3.17% Down75% Dn/Up510% / 2.5% Score51.7 DownOpp4.285

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#34 US.CL Colgate-Palmolive · Consumer Staples

-1.83%

P25-3.80% Down75% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score47.2 DownOpp4.276

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#35 US.QCOM Qualcomm · Information Technology

-2.12%

P25-4.85% Down70% Dn/Up525% / 5% Score48.3 DownOpp4.27

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#36 US.UNP Union Pacific Corporation · Industrials

-2.16%

P25-3.07% Down72.5% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score48.6 DownOpp4.213

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#37 US.SJM J.M. Smucker Company (The) · Consumer Staples

-1.61%

P25-3.43% Down77.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score47.2 DownOpp4.164

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#38 US.SYY Sysco · Consumer Staples

-1.61%

P25-3.43% Down77.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score47.1 DownOpp4.164

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#39 US.CSX CSX Corporation · Industrials

-1.84%

P25-3.34% Down72.5% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score44 DownOpp4.145

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#40 US.AON Aon plc · Financials

-1.93%

P25-2.99% Down72.5% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score46.6 DownOpp4.128

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#41 US.KDP Keurig Dr Pepper · Consumer Staples

-1.45%

P25-3.02% Down80% Dn/Up510% / 2.5% Score48.6 DownOpp4.091

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#42 US.ORLY O’Reilly Automotive · Consumer Discretionary

-2.33%

P25-4.39% Down67.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 7.5% Score46.4 DownOpp4.03

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#43 US.NVDA Nvidia · Information Technology

-1.56%

P25-3.21% Down75% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score44.4 DownOpp4.029

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#44 US.TXT Textron · Industrials

-2.06%

P25-3.92% Down70% Dn/Up512.5% / 5% Score46.3 DownOpp3.993

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#45 US.BR Broadridge Financial Solutions · Industrials

-1.80%

P25-4.44% Down70% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score50.7 DownOpp3.98

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#46 US.CTAS Cintas · Industrials

-2.11%

P25-3.18% Down70% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score50.2 DownOpp3.978

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#47 US.STLD Steel Dynamics · Materials

-2.19%

P25-3.89% Down70% Dn/Up520% / 7.5% Score46.8 DownOpp3.962

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#48 US.ACGL Arch Capital Group · Financials

-1.95%

P25-3.07% Down70% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score47.9 DownOpp3.958

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#49 US.HSY Hershey Company (The) · Consumer Staples

-1.45%

P25-3.25% Down75% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score47.6 DownOpp3.906

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#50 US.CCL Carnival Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-2.42%

P25-5.15% Down65% Dn/Up530% / 10% Score53.8 DownOpp3.904

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=40

US.DG · -3.32% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking