S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.SW · -3.34% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-3.34%

Top down rate80%

Top P25-5.99%

DOE score2.36

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.SW Smurfit Westrock · Materials

-3.34%

P25-5.99% Down80% Dn/Up532.5% / 5% Score44.7 DownOpp6.602

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#2 US.BF.B Brown–Forman · Consumer Staples

-3.57%

P25-5.06% Down75% Dn/Up527.5% / 10% Score39.4 DownOpp5.94

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#3 US.AMCR Amcor · Materials

-2.78%

P25-4.69% Down82.5% Dn/Up525% / 5% Score42 DownOpp5.938

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#4 US.MLM Martin Marietta Materials · Materials

-2.16%

P25-3.41% Down87.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score44.6 DownOpp5.678

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#5 US.PKG Packaging Corporation of America · Materials

-2.21%

P25-3.41% Down85% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score43.7 DownOpp5.535

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#6 US.ECL Ecolab · Materials

-2.15%

P25-4.20% Down82.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score54 DownOpp5.395

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#7 US.DLTR Dollar Tree · Consumer Staples

-2.93%

P25-5.27% Down70% Dn/Up530% / 2.5% Score42.3 DownOpp5.38

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#8 US.SHW Sherwin-Williams · Materials

-2.03%

P25-3.41% Down85% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score45.3 DownOpp5.343

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#9 US.EL Estée Lauder Companies (The) · Consumer Staples

-3.30%

P25-4.92% Down72.5% Dn/Up525% / 12.5% Score38.9 DownOpp5.288

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#10 US.FDS FactSet · Financials

-2.91%

P25-4.61% Down72.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 5% Score50.7 DownOpp5.182

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#11 US.AVY Avery Dennison · Materials

-2.04%

P25-3.27% Down82.5% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score43.1 DownOpp4.984

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#12 US.FAST Fastenal · Industrials

-2.33%

P25-3.18% Down77.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score47.8 DownOpp4.967

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#13 US.BALL Ball Corporation · Materials

-1.85%

P25-3.41% Down82.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score46.4 DownOpp4.955

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#14 US.PPG PPG Industries · Materials

-2.35%

P25-5.04% Down75% Dn/Up525% / 5% Score48.9 DownOpp4.943

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#15 US.UNP Union Pacific Corporation · Industrials

-2.28%

P25-3.28% Down77.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score49 DownOpp4.933

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#16 US.MMM 3M · Industrials

-2.39%

P25-3.89% Down77.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 5% Score45.7 DownOpp4.92

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#17 US.MKC McCormick & Company · Consumer Staples

-2.91%

P25-5.67% Down62.5% Dn/Up532.5% / 2.5% Score41.3 DownOpp4.868

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#18 US.IFF International Flavors & Fragrances · Materials

-2.29%

P25-4.48% Down75% Dn/Up520% / 5% Score47.3 DownOpp4.755

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#19 US.CRH CRH plc · Materials

-2.35%

P25-5.04% Down72.5% Dn/Up525% / 5% Score48.8 DownOpp4.744

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#20 US.DG Dollar General · Consumer Staples

-2.68%

P25-5.27% Down65% Dn/Up530% / 2.5% Score42 DownOpp4.732

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#21 US.QCOM Qualcomm · Information Technology

-2.57%

P25-5.48% Down70% Dn/Up527.5% / 7.5% Score54.9 DownOpp4.678

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#22 US.GD General Dynamics · Industrials

-2.12%

P25-3.21% Down75% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score45.3 DownOpp4.583

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#23 US.CSX CSX Corporation · Industrials

-1.85%

P25-3.80% Down80% Dn/Up517.5% / 5% Score48 DownOpp4.54

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#24 US.CLX Clorox · Consumer Staples

-2.41%

P25-4.76% Down67.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 2.5% Score44.1 DownOpp4.519

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#25 US.CAG Conagra Brands · Consumer Staples

-2.33%

P25-5.27% Down65% Dn/Up530% / 2.5% Score38.3 DownOpp4.41

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#26 US.VMC Vulcan Materials Company · Materials

-1.92%

P25-3.27% Down75% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score45.5 DownOpp4.246

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#27 US.BAC Bank of America · Financials

-1.95%

P25-3.72% Down70% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score43.8 DownOpp4.152

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#28 US.CFG Citizens Financial Group · Financials

-2.35%

P25-4.56% Down67.5% Dn/Up520% / 7.5% Score50 DownOpp4.065

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#29 US.PM Philip Morris International · Consumer Staples

-1.55%

P25-3.21% Down77.5% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score46.1 DownOpp4.057

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#30 US.SYY Sysco · Consumer Staples

-1.47%

P25-2.85% Down77.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score45.9 DownOpp4.038

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#31 US.ZBH Zimmer Biomet · Health Care

-2.08%

P25-3.55% Down72.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 7.5% Score37.9 DownOpp4.033

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#32 US.TRV Travelers Companies (The) · Financials

-1.58%

P25-3.95% Down72.5% Dn/Up520% / 0% Score49.9 DownOpp3.993

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#33 US.TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company · Consumer Staples

-1.67%

P25-3.08% Down72.5% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score39.4 DownOpp3.945

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#34 US.AZO AutoZone · Consumer Discretionary

-1.62%

P25-3.57% Down77.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 7.5% Score44.1 DownOpp3.932

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#35 US.PG Procter & Gamble · Consumer Staples

-1.47%

P25-2.97% Down75% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score45.8 DownOpp3.869

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#36 US.HBAN Huntington Bancshares · Financials

-1.56%

P25-3.21% Down72.5% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score40.7 DownOpp3.857

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#37 US.PCAR Paccar · Industrials

-1.69%

P25-3.55% Down70% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score43.1 DownOpp3.854

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#38 US.RF Regions Financial Corporation · Financials

-2.06%

P25-3.38% Down67.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score48 DownOpp3.795

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#39 US.GS Goldman Sachs · Financials

-2.22%

P25-5.63% Down67.5% Dn/Up530% / 15% Score48 DownOpp3.768

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#40 US.IEX IDEX Corporation · Industrials

-1.70%

P25-3.75% Down72.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 5% Score49.8 DownOpp3.764

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#41 US.DPZ Domino's · Consumer Discretionary

-1.95%

P25-2.90% Down70% Dn/Up55% / 5% Score34.2 DownOpp3.719

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#42 US.KHC Kraft Heinz · Consumer Staples

-1.62%

P25-3.00% Down70% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score34.7 DownOpp3.71

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#43 US.SJM J.M. Smucker Company (The) · Consumer Staples

-1.51%

P25-2.86% Down72.5% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score45.3 DownOpp3.685

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#44 US.SNA Snap-on · Industrials

-1.57%

P25-3.15% Down72.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score48.2 DownOpp3.646

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#45 US.ICE Intercontinental Exchange · Financials

-1.75%

P25-3.11% Down70% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score46.1 DownOpp3.632

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#46 US.TROW T. Rowe Price · Financials

-1.75%

P25-3.04% Down70% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score45.9 DownOpp3.616

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#47 US.MNST Monster Beverage · Consumer Staples

-1.53%

P25-3.08% Down70% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score43.3 DownOpp3.575

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#48 US.NEM Newmont · Materials

-2.03%

P25-3.66% Down67.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 7.5% Score46.9 DownOpp3.543

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#49 US.USB U.S. Bancorp · Financials

-1.23%

P25-3.45% Down72.5% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score48.2 DownOpp3.531

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#50 US.BDX Becton Dickinson · Health Care

-1.18%

P25-4.12% Down72.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 2.5% Score45.2 DownOpp3.521

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=40

US.SW · -3.34% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking