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Downside opportunities

Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

Materialized projections ranked by downside median, downside probability, and score quality.

Calibration status

3D · n=40

Shared DOE best setting from the as-of run for this snapshot.

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-03-18
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-03-18
DOE window 2026-01-30 → 2026-03-13
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年7月8日 下午1:02 HKT
Rows 50
Excluded uptrends 139

Downside ranking

US.CRH · -3.25% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-3.25%
Top down rate87.5%
Top P25-5.53%
DOE score2.37

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.CRH CRH plc · Materials

-3.25%

P25-5.53% Down87.5% Dn/Up532.5% / 0% Score44.8 DownOpp7.297
View chart 開富途
#2 US.AMCR Amcor · Materials

-2.92%

P25-5.38% Down90% Dn/Up530% / 2.5% Score37.4 DownOpp7.034
View chart 開富途
#3 US.NUE Nucor · Materials

-2.77%

P25-5.23% Down82.5% Dn/Up527.5% / 0% Score46.6 DownOpp6.328
View chart 開富途
#4 US.CLX Clorox · Consumer Staples

-2.77%

P25-4.96% Down80% Dn/Up525% / 0% Score41.3 DownOpp6.1
View chart 開富途
#5 US.PPG PPG Industries · Materials

-2.43%

P25-4.45% Down82.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 0% Score46.1 DownOpp5.797
View chart 開富途
#6 US.MS Morgan Stanley · Financials

-2.70%

P25-4.27% Down80% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score52.2 DownOpp5.776
View chart 開富途
#7 US.SNA Snap-on · Industrials

-2.57%

P25-3.49% Down82.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score47.2 DownOpp5.689
View chart 開富途
#8 US.FDS FactSet · Financials

-2.99%

P25-4.32% Down75% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score51.5 DownOpp5.534
View chart 開富途
#9 US.ECL Ecolab · Materials

-2.08%

P25-3.95% Down85% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score52.4 DownOpp5.475
View chart 開富途
#10 US.SW Smurfit Westrock · Materials

-2.21%

P25-4.45% Down82.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 2.5% Score41.3 DownOpp5.463
View chart 開富途
#11 US.IFF International Flavors & Fragrances · Materials

-2.21%

P25-4.45% Down82.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 2.5% Score42.1 DownOpp5.457
View chart 開富途
#12 US.LDOS Leidos · Industrials

-2.71%

P25-3.90% Down77.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score45.6 DownOpp5.393
View chart 開富途
#13 US.GWW W. W. Grainger · Industrials

-2.44%

P25-3.28% Down82.5% Dn/Up510% / 2.5% Score45.9 DownOpp5.366
View chart 開富途
#14 US.STLD Steel Dynamics · Materials

-2.18%

P25-4.69% Down82.5% Dn/Up525% / 5% Score40.4 DownOpp5.35
View chart 開富途
#15 US.MKC McCormick & Company · Consumer Staples

-2.54%

P25-4.59% Down75% Dn/Up522.5% / 2.5% Score37.6 DownOpp5.256
View chart 開富途
#16 US.PKG Packaging Corporation of America · Materials

-2.10%

P25-4.45% Down77.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 5% Score42.9 DownOpp4.791
View chart 開富途
#17 US.ADP Automatic Data Processing · Industrials

-2.37%

P25-3.21% Down75% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score46.7 DownOpp4.672
View chart 開富途
#18 US.UNP Union Pacific Corporation · Industrials

-1.96%

P25-3.36% Down77.5% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score45 DownOpp4.663
View chart 開富途
#19 US.C Citigroup · Financials

-2.42%

P25-4.11% Down72.5% Dn/Up515% / 5% Score44.9 DownOpp4.611
View chart 開富途
#20 US.AVY Avery Dennison · Materials

-2.04%

P25-3.11% Down80% Dn/Up57.5% / 5% Score41.8 DownOpp4.604
View chart 開富途
#21 US.PNR Pentair · Industrials

-1.95%

P25-3.89% Down75% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score44.3 DownOpp4.59
View chart 開富途
#22 US.BF.B Brown–Forman · Consumer Staples

-2.41%

P25-3.97% Down70% Dn/Up510% / 2.5% Score36.2 DownOpp4.581
View chart 開富途
#23 US.PAYX Paychex · Industrials

-2.24%

P25-3.18% Down75% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score48.1 DownOpp4.524
View chart 開富途
#24 US.DLTR Dollar Tree · Consumer Staples

-2.35%

P25-4.96% Down67.5% Dn/Up525% / 2.5% Score42.3 DownOpp4.523
View chart 開富途
#25 US.AME Ametek · Industrials

-2.08%

P25-3.49% Down72.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score45.8 DownOpp4.409
View chart 開富途
#26 US.MCO Moody's Corporation · Financials

-1.78%

P25-3.57% Down75% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score40.3 DownOpp4.37
View chart 開富途
#27 US.MLM Martin Marietta Materials · Materials

-1.83%

P25-2.83% Down80% Dn/Up50% / 5% Score40.4 DownOpp4.335
View chart 開富途
#28 US.MDLZ Mondelez International · Consumer Staples

-1.69%

P25-3.60% Down77.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score52.3 DownOpp4.248
View chart 開富途
#29 US.EL Estée Lauder Companies (The) · Consumer Staples

-2.16%

P25-3.44% Down70% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score35.1 DownOpp4.207
View chart 開富途
#30 US.CAG Conagra Brands · Consumer Staples

-2.40%

P25-5.07% Down62.5% Dn/Up527.5% / 2.5% Score42.3 DownOpp4.2
View chart 開富途
#31 US.ABNB Airbnb · Consumer Discretionary

-2.33%

P25-3.83% Down70% Dn/Up517.5% / 5% Score51.9 DownOpp4.198
View chart 開富途
#32 US.ARES Ares Management · Financials

-2.45%

P25-5.13% Down67.5% Dn/Up527.5% / 10% Score48.8 DownOpp4.167
View chart 開富途
#33 US.XYZ Block, Inc. · Financials

-2.45%

P25-4.72% Down67.5% Dn/Up525% / 10% Score49.2 DownOpp4.061
View chart 開富途
#34 US.VRSK Verisk Analytics · Industrials

-2.37%

P25-3.11% Down72.5% Dn/Up510% / 7.5% Score59.1 DownOpp4.054
View chart 開富途
#35 US.SHW Sherwin-Williams · Materials

-1.70%

P25-2.52% Down75% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score39 DownOpp4.037
View chart 開富途
#36 US.HUM Humana · Health Care

-1.73%

P25-4.18% Down70% Dn/Up520% / 2.5% Score42.5 DownOpp3.906
View chart 開富途
#37 US.DRI Darden Restaurants · Consumer Discretionary

-1.34%

P25-3.97% Down77.5% Dn/Up515% / 5% Score49.9 DownOpp3.858
View chart 開富途
#38 US.INCY Incyte · Health Care

-1.38%

P25-4.04% Down72.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 0% Score44.5 DownOpp3.856
View chart 開富途
#39 US.MRVL Marvell Technology · Information Technology

-2.28%

P25-6.67% Down65% Dn/Up535% / 15% Score61.2 DownOpp3.789
View chart 開富途
#40 US.HSY Hershey Company (The) · Consumer Staples

-1.75%

P25-3.75% Down70% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score50.6 DownOpp3.758
View chart 開富途
#41 US.UAL United Airlines Holdings · Industrials

-2.04%

P25-4.64% Down67.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 10% Score43.4 DownOpp3.675
View chart 開富途
#42 US.MET MetLife · Financials

-1.78%

P25-3.88% Down67.5% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score45.3 DownOpp3.66
View chart 開富途
#43 US.ORCL Oracle Corporation · Information Technology

-1.66%

P25-5.46% Down67.5% Dn/Up527.5% / 7.5% Score50.3 DownOpp3.598
View chart 開富途
#44 US.PM Philip Morris International · Consumer Staples

-1.36%

P25-3.10% Down72.5% Dn/Up520% / 0% Score46.1 DownOpp3.589
View chart 開富途
#45 US.EG Everest Group · Financials

-1.33%

P25-3.91% Down70% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score44.4 DownOpp3.575
View chart 開富途
#46 US.IEX IDEX Corporation · Industrials

-1.37%

P25-3.49% Down70% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score44.8 DownOpp3.507
View chart 開富途
#47 US.IP International Paper · Materials

-1.82%

P25-3.78% Down70% Dn/Up510% / 10% Score37.8 DownOpp3.482
View chart 開富途
#48 US.WFC Wells Fargo · Financials

-1.59%

P25-3.04% Down70% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score44.2 DownOpp3.469
View chart 開富途
#49 US.VMC Vulcan Materials Company · Materials

-1.58%

P25-2.89% Down70% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score45.7 DownOpp3.41
View chart 開富途
#50 US.GRMN Garmin · Consumer Discretionary

-1.17%

P25-3.88% Down70% Dn/Up520% / 0% Score45 DownOpp3.403
View chart 開富途