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Downside opportunities

Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

Materialized projections ranked by downside median, downside probability, and score quality.

Calibration status

3D · n=40

Shared DOE best setting from the as-of run for this snapshot.

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-03-17
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-03-17
DOE window 2026-01-29 → 2026-03-12
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年7月8日 下午1:07 HKT
Rows 50
Excluded uptrends 153

Downside ranking

US.AMCR · -3.25% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-3.25%
Top down rate85%
Top P25-5.53%
DOE score2.427

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.AMCR Amcor · Materials

-3.25%

P25-5.53% Down85% Dn/Up532.5% / 2.5% Score40.6 DownOpp6.978
View chart 開富途
#2 US.KKR KKR & Co. · Financials

-3.72%

P25-6.34% Down77.5% Dn/Up542.5% / 10% Score45.2 DownOpp6.566
View chart 開富途
#3 US.PPG PPG Industries · Materials

-3.04%

P25-5.38% Down82.5% Dn/Up530% / 2.5% Score45.7 DownOpp6.492
View chart 開富途
#4 US.CPRT Copart · Industrials

-2.99%

P25-4.57% Down85% Dn/Up520% / 2.5% Score47.2 DownOpp6.429
View chart 開富途
#5 US.NUE Nucor · Materials

-3.02%

P25-5.23% Down80% Dn/Up527.5% / 0% Score46.8 DownOpp6.377
View chart 開富途
#6 US.SW Smurfit Westrock · Materials

-3.06%

P25-5.38% Down80% Dn/Up530% / 2.5% Score44.9 DownOpp6.318
View chart 開富途
#7 US.IP International Paper · Materials

-3.04%

P25-5.38% Down80% Dn/Up530% / 5% Score41.2 DownOpp6.176
View chart 開富途
#8 US.IFF International Flavors & Fragrances · Materials

-3.04%

P25-5.38% Down80% Dn/Up530% / 5% Score42.5 DownOpp6.166
View chart 開富途
#9 US.XYZ Block, Inc. · Financials

-3.72%

P25-6.02% Down77.5% Dn/Up537.5% / 15% Score48.2 DownOpp6.164
View chart 開富途
#10 US.UNP Union Pacific Corporation · Industrials

-2.71%

P25-3.92% Down85% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score46.8 DownOpp6.139
View chart 開富途
#11 US.PNR Pentair · Industrials

-2.71%

P25-4.32% Down85% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score46.1 DownOpp6.094
View chart 開富途
#12 US.VLTO Veralto · Industrials

-3.03%

P25-3.81% Down80% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score47.6 DownOpp5.876
View chart 開富途
#13 US.VMC Vulcan Materials Company · Materials

-2.75%

P25-5.38% Down80% Dn/Up530% / 5% Score46.5 DownOpp5.846
View chart 開富途
#14 US.CLX Clorox · Consumer Staples

-2.70%

P25-4.96% Down77.5% Dn/Up525% / 0% Score41.6 DownOpp5.828
View chart 開富途
#15 US.FDS FactSet · Financials

-3.00%

P25-4.62% Down77.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 5% Score50.7 DownOpp5.675
View chart 開富途
#16 US.MKC McCormick & Company · Consumer Staples

-2.68%

P25-3.58% Down77.5% Dn/Up520% / 2.5% Score37 DownOpp5.348
View chart 開富途
#17 US.MS Morgan Stanley · Financials

-2.42%

P25-3.43% Down80% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score47.6 DownOpp5.321
View chart 開富途
#18 US.C Citigroup · Financials

-2.55%

P25-4.27% Down77.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 5% Score46.7 DownOpp5.167
View chart 開富途
#19 US.SPGI S&P Global · Financials

-1.88%

P25-4.41% Down82.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 0% Score56.9 DownOpp5.156
View chart 開富途
#20 US.GWW W. W. Grainger · Industrials

-2.33%

P25-3.43% Down80% Dn/Up510% / 2.5% Score48.3 DownOpp5.075
View chart 開富途
#21 US.HOOD Robinhood Markets · Financials

-2.46%

P25-4.60% Down77.5% Dn/Up515% / 7.5% Score48.5 DownOpp4.996
View chart 開富途
#22 US.APO Apollo Global Management · Financials

-2.67%

P25-5.13% Down72.5% Dn/Up527.5% / 7.5% Score48.8 DownOpp4.937
View chart 開富途
#23 US.MCO Moody's Corporation · Financials

-2.49%

P25-4.12% Down70% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score43.6 DownOpp4.793
View chart 開富途
#24 US.NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. · Financials

-2.94%

P25-4.03% Down72.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 10% Score53.7 DownOpp4.745
View chart 開富途
#25 US.ROL Rollins, Inc. · Industrials

-2.34%

P25-4.12% Down72.5% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score45.9 DownOpp4.676
View chart 開富途
#26 US.PH Parker Hannifin · Industrials

-2.25%

P25-3.66% Down75% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score47.3 DownOpp4.66
View chart 開富途
#27 US.AME Ametek · Industrials

-2.07%

P25-3.38% Down75% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score45 DownOpp4.578
View chart 開富途
#28 US.HUM Humana · Health Care

-2.08%

P25-4.22% Down77.5% Dn/Up520% / 7.5% Score44.5 DownOpp4.551
View chart 開富途
#29 US.CAG Conagra Brands · Consumer Staples

-2.19%

P25-3.86% Down70% Dn/Up520% / 0% Score42 DownOpp4.44
View chart 開富途
#30 US.JPM JPMorgan Chase · Financials

-2.43%

P25-4.32% Down65% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score48.6 DownOpp4.346
View chart 開富途
#31 US.GEHC GE HealthCare · Health Care

-2.27%

P25-3.94% Down72.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 7.5% Score38.3 DownOpp4.318
View chart 開富途
#32 US.ARES Ares Management · Financials

-2.35%

P25-4.53% Down70% Dn/Up522.5% / 7.5% Score50.1 DownOpp4.257
View chart 開富途
#33 US.BF.B Brown–Forman · Consumer Staples

-2.21%

P25-4.62% Down70% Dn/Up522.5% / 7.5% Score34.8 DownOpp4.254
View chart 開富途
#34 US.XYL Xylem Inc. · Industrials

-2.22%

P25-4.30% Down67.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score45.2 DownOpp4.206
View chart 開富途
#35 US.CSX CSX Corporation · Industrials

-2.31%

P25-3.35% Down67.5% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score47.2 DownOpp4.044
View chart 開富途
#36 US.ADP Automatic Data Processing · Industrials

-2.03%

P25-3.17% Down70% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score51.7 DownOpp4.035
View chart 開富途
#37 US.IEX IDEX Corporation · Industrials

-1.97%

P25-3.65% Down72.5% Dn/Up515% / 5% Score47 DownOpp4.03
View chart 開富途
#38 US.ITW Illinois Tool Works · Industrials

-1.82%

P25-3.69% Down70% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score45.2 DownOpp4.004
View chart 開富途
#39 US.DLTR Dollar Tree · Consumer Staples

-2.19%

P25-3.38% Down67.5% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score44.9 DownOpp3.948
View chart 開富途
#40 US.DDOG Datadog · Information Technology

-1.59%

P25-4.90% Down72.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 5% Score66.5 DownOpp3.816
View chart 開富途
#41 US.TROW T. Rowe Price · Financials

-1.98%

P25-3.76% Down67.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score47.5 DownOpp3.814
View chart 開富途
#42 US.CRH CRH plc · Materials

-2.28%

P25-5.47% Down65% Dn/Up527.5% / 12.5% Score49.8 DownOpp3.724
View chart 開富途
#43 US.ABNB Airbnb · Consumer Discretionary

-2.33%

P25-3.89% Down65% Dn/Up517.5% / 7.5% Score52.3 DownOpp3.66
View chart 開富途
#44 US.ECL Ecolab · Materials

-1.58%

P25-2.28% Down75% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score46.6 DownOpp3.651
View chart 開富途
#45 US.VRSK Verisk Analytics · Industrials

-1.79%

P25-3.55% Down70% Dn/Up512.5% / 5% Score57.3 DownOpp3.548
View chart 開富途
#46 US.PLTR Palantir Technologies · Information Technology

-1.58%

P25-4.51% Down70% Dn/Up522.5% / 5% Score67.9 DownOpp3.498
View chart 開富途
#47 US.AAPL Apple Inc. · Information Technology

-1.43%

P25-3.20% Down70% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score45.8 DownOpp3.487
View chart 開富途
#48 US.APTV Aptiv · Consumer Discretionary

-1.29%

P25-3.34% Down72.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score44.7 DownOpp3.44
View chart 開富途
#49 US.RVTY Revvity · Health Care

-1.76%

P25-4.11% Down67.5% Dn/Up520% / 7.5% Score41.1 DownOpp3.429
View chart 開富途
#50 US.V Visa Inc. · Financials

-1.89%

P25-4.29% Down60% Dn/Up517.5% / 0% Score48.8 DownOpp3.397
View chart 開富途