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Downside opportunities

Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

Materialized projections ranked by downside median, downside probability, and score quality.

Calibration status

3D · n=40

Shared DOE best setting from the as-of run for this snapshot.

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-03-16
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-03-16
DOE window 2026-01-28 → 2026-03-11
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年7月9日 下午5:30 HKT
Rows 50
Excluded uptrends 157

Downside ranking

US.AMCR · -3.47% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-3.47%
Top down rate90%
Top P25-5.90%
DOE score2.436

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.AMCR Amcor · Materials

-3.47%

P25-5.90% Down90% Dn/Up535% / 2.5% Score37.4 DownOpp7.714
View chart 開富途
#2 US.ARES Ares Management · Financials

-4.18%

P25-6.43% Down80% Dn/Up545% / 10% Score42.8 DownOpp7.267
View chart 開富途
#3 US.APO Apollo Global Management · Financials

-4.03%

P25-6.43% Down80% Dn/Up545% / 7.5% Score43.9 DownOpp7.258
View chart 開富途
#4 US.BX Blackstone Inc. · Financials

-3.72%

P25-6.34% Down82.5% Dn/Up542.5% / 5% Score47.4 DownOpp7.249
View chart 開富途
#5 US.KKR KKR & Co. · Financials

-3.51%

P25-6.26% Down82.5% Dn/Up540% / 5% Score45.6 DownOpp7.033
View chart 開富途
#6 US.ECL Ecolab · Materials

-2.14%

P25-4.25% Down95% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score51.2 DownOpp6.419
View chart 開富途
#7 US.SW Smurfit Westrock · Materials

-2.79%

P25-5.38% Down85% Dn/Up530% / 5% Score40.9 DownOpp6.328
View chart 開富途
#8 US.IFF International Flavors & Fragrances · Materials

-2.94%

P25-5.38% Down82.5% Dn/Up527.5% / 5% Score39.7 DownOpp6.287
View chart 開富途
#9 US.VLTO Veralto · Industrials

-2.96%

P25-4.32% Down82.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score45.8 DownOpp6.147
View chart 開富途
#10 US.PKG Packaging Corporation of America · Materials

-2.79%

P25-5.38% Down80% Dn/Up530% / 2.5% Score45.9 DownOpp6.041
View chart 開富途
#11 US.SNA Snap-on · Industrials

-2.84%

P25-3.49% Down82.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score46.6 DownOpp5.963
View chart 開富途
#12 US.ROL Rollins, Inc. · Industrials

-2.41%

P25-3.96% Down85% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score42.8 DownOpp5.879
View chart 開富途
#13 US.ITW Illinois Tool Works · Industrials

-2.71%

P25-3.94% Down80% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score44.4 DownOpp5.762
View chart 開富途
#14 US.FDS FactSet · Financials

-2.89%

P25-4.51% Down80% Dn/Up512.5% / 5% Score49.5 DownOpp5.746
View chart 開富途
#15 US.ALLE Allegion · Industrials

-2.61%

P25-3.96% Down82.5% Dn/Up510% / 2.5% Score40.8 DownOpp5.744
View chart 開富途
#16 US.CSX CSX Corporation · Industrials

-2.91%

P25-3.65% Down80% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score47.4 DownOpp5.717
View chart 開富途
#17 US.BF.B Brown–Forman · Consumer Staples

-3.01%

P25-4.76% Down77.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 7.5% Score36.6 DownOpp5.676
View chart 開富途
#18 US.XYL Xylem Inc. · Industrials

-2.99%

P25-4.59% Down75% Dn/Up520% / 2.5% Score45.2 DownOpp5.648
View chart 開富途
#19 US.PPG PPG Industries · Materials

-2.77%

P25-5.23% Down77.5% Dn/Up527.5% / 5% Score47.6 DownOpp5.621
View chart 開富途
#20 US.EXPD Expeditors International · Industrials

-2.44%

P25-3.90% Down82.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score44.9 DownOpp5.528
View chart 開富途
#21 US.BA Boeing · Industrials

-2.87%

P25-4.11% Down80% Dn/Up517.5% / 7.5% Score45.6 DownOpp5.506
View chart 開富途
#22 US.UAL United Airlines Holdings · Industrials

-2.84%

P25-4.95% Down75% Dn/Up525% / 5% Score37.7 DownOpp5.495
View chart 開富途
#23 US.PYPL PayPal · Financials

-3.05%

P25-4.26% Down77.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 7.5% Score52.3 DownOpp5.473
View chart 開富途
#24 US.HON Honeywell · Industrials

-2.67%

P25-3.43% Down80% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score45.4 DownOpp5.437
View chart 開富途
#25 US.NTRS Northern Trust · Financials

-2.88%

P25-4.87% Down72.5% Dn/Up525% / 2.5% Score46.9 DownOpp5.396
View chart 開富途
#26 US.NSC Norfolk Southern · Industrials

-2.41%

P25-4.12% Down80% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score43.8 DownOpp5.361
View chart 開富途
#27 US.OTIS Otis Worldwide · Industrials

-2.31%

P25-3.74% Down80% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score40 DownOpp5.345
View chart 開富途
#28 US.MS Morgan Stanley · Financials

-2.42%

P25-3.43% Down80% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score47.6 DownOpp5.321
View chart 開富途
#29 US.FTV Fortive · Industrials

-2.07%

P25-3.38% Down82.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score42.3 DownOpp5.198
View chart 開富途
#30 US.PCAR Paccar · Industrials

-2.24%

P25-3.21% Down82.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score47.2 DownOpp5.139
View chart 開富途
#31 US.CLX Clorox · Consumer Staples

-2.41%

P25-3.71% Down77.5% Dn/Up520% / 2.5% Score37.2 DownOpp5.109
View chart 開富途
#32 US.WAT Waters Corporation · Health Care

-2.49%

P25-4.39% Down77.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 7.5% Score38.4 DownOpp5.05
View chart 開富途
#33 US.EXPE Expedia Group · Consumer Discretionary

-2.55%

P25-4.43% Down72.5% Dn/Up520% / 0% Score59.4 DownOpp5.012
View chart 開富途
#34 US.IP International Paper · Materials

-3.04%

P25-4.50% Down75% Dn/Up517.5% / 15% Score37.8 DownOpp4.982
View chart 開富途
#35 US.C Citigroup · Financials

-2.07%

P25-4.42% Down75% Dn/Up520% / 0% Score49.1 DownOpp4.807
View chart 開富途
#36 US.NDSN Nordson Corporation · Industrials

-2.18%

P25-3.58% Down80% Dn/Up512.5% / 5% Score51.3 DownOpp4.79
View chart 開富途
#37 US.JPM JPMorgan Chase · Financials

-2.63%

P25-4.37% Down67.5% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score49 DownOpp4.755
View chart 開富途
#38 US.HST Host Hotels & Resorts · Real Estate

-2.57%

P25-3.92% Down72.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 5% Score45.1 DownOpp4.712
View chart 開富途
#39 US.CBRE CBRE Group · Real Estate

-2.19%

P25-3.68% Down75% Dn/Up510% / 2.5% Score44.1 DownOpp4.629
View chart 開富途
#40 US.CAG Conagra Brands · Consumer Staples

-2.40%

P25-4.27% Down70% Dn/Up520% / 2.5% Score41 DownOpp4.61
View chart 開富途
#41 US.WYNN Wynn Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-2.10%

P25-5.39% Down75% Dn/Up527.5% / 10% Score40 DownOpp4.548
View chart 開富途
#42 US.MKC McCormick & Company · Consumer Staples

-2.19%

P25-4.76% Down70% Dn/Up522.5% / 2.5% Score43 DownOpp4.508
View chart 開富途
#43 US.GPN Global Payments · Financials

-2.57%

P25-4.42% Down67.5% Dn/Up515% / 5% Score44.9 DownOpp4.438
View chart 開富途
#44 US.BLK BlackRock · Financials

-2.45%

P25-4.37% Down67.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score48.3 DownOpp4.43
View chart 開富途
#45 US.META Meta Platforms · Communication Services

-2.60%

P25-4.95% Down67.5% Dn/Up525% / 7.5% Score48.9 DownOpp4.421
View chart 開富途
#46 US.TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company · Consumer Staples

-2.20%

P25-4.41% Down70% Dn/Up520% / 2.5% Score44.7 DownOpp4.417
View chart 開富途
#47 US.GWW W. W. Grainger · Industrials

-2.18%

P25-3.28% Down75% Dn/Up57.5% / 5% Score49.7 DownOpp4.327
View chart 開富途
#48 US.BLDR Builders FirstSource · Industrials

-2.23%

P25-4.85% Down70% Dn/Up522.5% / 7.5% Score37.1 DownOpp4.314
View chart 開富途
#49 US.VMC Vulcan Materials Company · Materials

-1.81%

P25-3.75% Down75% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score44.5 DownOpp4.264
View chart 開富途
#50 US.AAPL Apple Inc. · Information Technology

-1.88%

P25-3.63% Down72.5% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score45.1 DownOpp4.249
View chart 開富途