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Downside opportunities

Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

Materialized projections ranked by downside median, downside probability, and score quality.

Calibration status

3D · n=40

Shared DOE best setting from the as-of run for this snapshot.

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-03-13
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-03-13
DOE window 2026-01-27 → 2026-03-10
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年7月9日 下午5:34 HKT
Rows 50
Excluded uptrends 144

Downside ranking

US.APO · -4.18% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-4.18%
Top down rate82.5%
Top P25-6.35%
DOE score2.538

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.APO Apollo Global Management · Financials

-4.18%

P25-6.35% Down82.5% Dn/Up545% / 5% Score45.9 DownOpp7.723
View chart 開富途
#2 US.KKR KKR & Co. · Financials

-3.72%

P25-6.34% Down80% Dn/Up542.5% / 5% Score45.6 DownOpp7.063
View chart 開富途
#3 US.NDSN Nordson Corporation · Industrials

-3.14%

P25-4.57% Down85% Dn/Up522.5% / 0% Score46.7 DownOpp6.732
View chart 開富途
#4 US.ARES Ares Management · Financials

-3.40%

P25-6.43% Down77.5% Dn/Up542.5% / 7.5% Score44.4 DownOpp6.425
View chart 開富途
#5 US.COIN Coinbase · Financials

-3.31%

P25-4.77% Down80% Dn/Up520% / 2.5% Score50.9 DownOpp6.371
View chart 開富途
#6 US.MMM 3M · Industrials

-3.07%

P25-4.30% Down82.5% Dn/Up520% / 2.5% Score44 DownOpp6.265
View chart 開富途
#7 US.ROL Rollins, Inc. · Industrials

-3.00%

P25-3.90% Down82.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 0% Score42 DownOpp6.26
View chart 開富途
#8 US.VMC Vulcan Materials Company · Materials

-2.17%

P25-4.25% Down92.5% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score49.9 DownOpp6.258
View chart 開富途
#9 US.JPM JPMorgan Chase · Financials

-2.91%

P25-4.32% Down80% Dn/Up517.5% / 0% Score47.8 DownOpp6.032
View chart 開富途
#10 US.GWW W. W. Grainger · Industrials

-2.95%

P25-3.92% Down80% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score45.9 DownOpp5.986
View chart 開富途
#11 US.OTIS Otis Worldwide · Industrials

-2.67%

P25-3.69% Down82.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score40.4 DownOpp5.89
View chart 開富途
#12 US.MLM Martin Marietta Materials · Materials

-2.94%

P25-5.43% Down77.5% Dn/Up527.5% / 5% Score42.4 DownOpp5.88
View chart 開富途
#13 US.IEX IDEX Corporation · Industrials

-3.03%

P25-4.57% Down77.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 2.5% Score45.8 DownOpp5.879
View chart 開富途
#14 US.EL Estée Lauder Companies (The) · Consumer Staples

-2.75%

P25-4.59% Down82.5% Dn/Up525% / 7.5% Score37.3 DownOpp5.768
View chart 開富途
#15 US.PKG Packaging Corporation of America · Materials

-2.77%

P25-5.43% Down77.5% Dn/Up527.5% / 5% Score47.4 DownOpp5.672
View chart 開富途
#16 US.BF.B Brown–Forman · Consumer Staples

-2.43%

P25-5.44% Down80% Dn/Up527.5% / 5% Score37.8 DownOpp5.607
View chart 開富途
#17 US.UNP Union Pacific Corporation · Industrials

-3.05%

P25-4.03% Down77.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 5% Score47.6 DownOpp5.601
View chart 開富途
#18 US.CRH CRH plc · Materials

-2.75%

P25-5.71% Down77.5% Dn/Up530% / 7.5% Score44.9 DownOpp5.591
View chart 開富途
#19 US.NSC Norfolk Southern · Industrials

-3.00%

P25-4.12% Down75% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score43.2 DownOpp5.556
View chart 開富途
#20 US.PCAR Paccar · Industrials

-3.00%

P25-4.57% Down75% Dn/Up522.5% / 5% Score46 DownOpp5.498
View chart 開富途
#21 US.ALLE Allegion · Industrials

-2.95%

P25-3.96% Down75% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score41 DownOpp5.483
View chart 開富途
#22 US.FDS FactSet · Financials

-2.74%

P25-4.60% Down77.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 5% Score50.3 DownOpp5.413
View chart 開富途
#23 US.NVDA Nvidia · Information Technology

-3.16%

P25-5.77% Down70% Dn/Up527.5% / 7.5% Score50.7 DownOpp5.372
View chart 開富途
#24 US.CSX CSX Corporation · Industrials

-2.84%

P25-3.35% Down77.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score47.6 DownOpp5.37
View chart 開富途
#25 US.AMCR Amcor · Materials

-2.41%

P25-4.84% Down80% Dn/Up525% / 7.5% Score38.2 DownOpp5.283
View chart 開富途
#26 US.CAG Conagra Brands · Consumer Staples

-2.68%

P25-4.76% Down72.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 2.5% Score40.8 DownOpp5.214
View chart 開富途
#27 US.GIS General Mills · Consumer Staples

-2.16%

P25-5.56% Down75% Dn/Up530% / 2.5% Score38.8 DownOpp5.109
View chart 開富途
#28 US.MKC McCormick & Company · Consumer Staples

-2.68%

P25-4.76% Down72.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 5% Score41.3 DownOpp5.06
View chart 開富途
#29 US.XYL Xylem Inc. · Industrials

-2.95%

P25-4.08% Down72.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 7.5% Score40 DownOpp5.02
View chart 開富途
#30 US.IFF International Flavors & Fragrances · Materials

-2.41%

P25-5.52% Down75% Dn/Up527.5% / 10% Score40.7 DownOpp4.885
View chart 開富途
#31 US.FTV Fortive · Industrials

-2.14%

P25-3.42% Down77.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score41.5 DownOpp4.884
View chart 開富途
#32 US.CLX Clorox · Consumer Staples

-2.41%

P25-3.58% Down75% Dn/Up520% / 2.5% Score36.4 DownOpp4.882
View chart 開富途
#33 US.SHW Sherwin-Williams · Materials

-2.03%

P25-3.20% Down80% Dn/Up510% / 2.5% Score40.2 DownOpp4.779
View chart 開富途
#34 US.DXCM Dexcom · Health Care

-2.31%

P25-3.91% Down72.5% Dn/Up520% / 0% Score44.6 DownOpp4.753
View chart 開富途
#35 US.AVY Avery Dennison · Materials

-2.03%

P25-3.20% Down80% Dn/Up510% / 2.5% Score44.8 DownOpp4.744
View chart 開富途
#36 US.SW Smurfit Westrock · Materials

-2.41%

P25-4.68% Down75% Dn/Up525% / 10% Score40.3 DownOpp4.678
View chart 開富途
#37 US.AAPL Apple Inc. · Information Technology

-1.95%

P25-4.22% Down75% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score44.8 DownOpp4.669
View chart 開富途
#38 US.LUV Southwest Airlines · Industrials

-2.42%

P25-5.48% Down70% Dn/Up530% / 7.5% Score38.4 DownOpp4.652
View chart 開富途
#39 US.CME CME Group · Financials

-1.56%

P25-4.16% Down80% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score48.5 DownOpp4.636
View chart 開富途
#40 US.PPG PPG Industries · Materials

-2.41%

P25-5.52% Down72.5% Dn/Up527.5% / 10% Score47.8 DownOpp4.632
View chart 開富途
#41 US.AME Ametek · Industrials

-2.61%

P25-3.96% Down72.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 7.5% Score43.9 DownOpp4.621
View chart 開富途
#42 US.AFL Aflac · Financials

-1.33%

P25-4.07% Down82.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score47.6 DownOpp4.591
View chart 開富途
#43 US.AON Aon plc · Financials

-2.18%

P25-4.23% Down72.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score46.8 DownOpp4.537
View chart 開富途
#44 US.ITW Illinois Tool Works · Industrials

-2.24%

P25-3.90% Down72.5% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score44.2 DownOpp4.534
View chart 開富途
#45 US.BXP BXP, Inc. · Real Estate

-2.23%

P25-3.92% Down72.5% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score44.5 DownOpp4.526
View chart 開富途
#46 US.INTU Intuit · Information Technology

-1.79%

P25-5.74% Down75% Dn/Up535% / 5% Score55.1 DownOpp4.512
View chart 開富途
#47 US.VLTO Veralto · Industrials

-2.34%

P25-3.51% Down75% Dn/Up515% / 7.5% Score48 DownOpp4.407
View chart 開富途
#48 US.UAL United Airlines Holdings · Industrials

-2.24%

P25-5.16% Down70% Dn/Up527.5% / 7.5% Score37.1 DownOpp4.402
View chart 開富途
#49 US.SPGI S&P Global · Financials

-1.63%

P25-3.04% Down80% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score53.8 DownOpp4.386
View chart 開富途
#50 US.DLTR Dollar Tree · Consumer Staples

-2.68%

P25-5.09% Down65% Dn/Up527.5% / 7.5% Score44.8 DownOpp4.366
View chart 開富途