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Downside opportunities

Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

Materialized projections ranked by downside median, downside probability, and score quality.

Calibration status

3D · n=40

Shared DOE best setting from the as-of run for this snapshot.

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-03-12
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-03-12
DOE window 2026-01-26 → 2026-03-09
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年7月9日 下午5:39 HKT
Rows 50
Excluded uptrends 149

Downside ranking

US.FDS · -3.86% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-3.86%
Top down rate85%
Top P25-5.64%
DOE score2.432

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.FDS FactSet · Financials

-3.86%

P25-5.64% Down85% Dn/Up532.5% / 7.5% Score50.1 DownOpp7.244
View chart 開富途
#2 US.APO Apollo Global Management · Financials

-3.22%

P25-6.35% Down75% Dn/Up535% / 7.5% Score40.9 DownOpp6.051
View chart 開富途
#3 US.MGM MGM Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-2.61%

P25-4.50% Down85% Dn/Up522.5% / 5% Score55.7 DownOpp5.817
View chart 開富途
#4 US.ROL Rollins, Inc. · Industrials

-2.85%

P25-4.57% Down75% Dn/Up522.5% / 0% Score39.4 DownOpp5.697
View chart 開富途
#5 US.TDY Teledyne Technologies · Information Technology

-3.18%

P25-6.20% Down72.5% Dn/Up532.5% / 7.5% Score52.6 DownOpp5.686
View chart 開富途
#6 US.MLM Martin Marietta Materials · Materials

-2.03%

P25-3.95% Down87.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score48.7 DownOpp5.652
View chart 開富途
#7 US.NDSN Nordson Corporation · Industrials

-2.95%

P25-4.19% Down75% Dn/Up520% / 2.5% Score47.1 DownOpp5.494
View chart 開富途
#8 US.IVZ Invesco · Financials

-2.97%

P25-6.35% Down70% Dn/Up535% / 7.5% Score36.8 DownOpp5.432
View chart 開富途
#9 US.PYPL PayPal · Financials

-2.74%

P25-4.36% Down80% Dn/Up512.5% / 7.5% Score49.9 DownOpp5.406
View chart 開富途
#10 US.EBAY eBay Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-2.49%

P25-3.91% Down82.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 5% Score55.9 DownOpp5.348
View chart 開富途
#11 US.ITW Illinois Tool Works · Industrials

-2.37%

P25-3.94% Down77.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 0% Score43 DownOpp5.233
View chart 開富途
#12 US.CSCO Cisco · Information Technology

-2.51%

P25-4.61% Down75% Dn/Up520% / 2.5% Score45.3 DownOpp5.173
View chart 開富途
#13 US.ALLE Allegion · Industrials

-2.37%

P25-3.96% Down77.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score40 DownOpp5.11
View chart 開富途
#14 US.AVY Avery Dennison · Materials

-2.02%

P25-3.69% Down82.5% Dn/Up510% / 2.5% Score46.3 DownOpp5.045
View chart 開富途
#15 US.BLDR Builders FirstSource · Industrials

-2.35%

P25-5.84% Down70% Dn/Up530% / 2.5% Score41.1 DownOpp4.952
View chart 開富途
#16 US.DOV Dover Corporation · Industrials

-2.14%

P25-4.19% Down75% Dn/Up520% / 0% Score41.8 DownOpp4.874
View chart 開富途
#17 US.ECL Ecolab · Materials

-1.95%

P25-4.10% Down80% Dn/Up520% / 2.5% Score47.9 DownOpp4.866
View chart 開富途
#18 US.ICE Intercontinental Exchange · Financials

-2.31%

P25-4.54% Down70% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score51.3 DownOpp4.66
View chart 開富途
#19 US.COIN Coinbase · Financials

-2.31%

P25-4.10% Down72.5% Dn/Up510% / 2.5% Score51.5 DownOpp4.599
View chart 開富途
#20 US.AAPL Apple Inc. · Information Technology

-1.88%

P25-4.22% Down75% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score45 DownOpp4.597
View chart 開富途
#21 US.XYL Xylem Inc. · Industrials

-2.25%

P25-3.96% Down72.5% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score39.2 DownOpp4.596
View chart 開富途
#22 US.AFL Aflac · Financials

-1.72%

P25-3.88% Down77.5% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score47.8 DownOpp4.532
View chart 開富途
#23 US.AIG American International Group · Financials

-1.97%

P25-4.28% Down72.5% Dn/Up520% / 0% Score45.3 DownOpp4.5
View chart 開富途
#24 US.CLX Clorox · Consumer Staples

-2.08%

P25-2.98% Down75% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score33.6 DownOpp4.423
View chart 開富途
#25 US.PGR Progressive Corporation · Financials

-2.28%

P25-4.15% Down70% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score46.1 DownOpp4.422
View chart 開富途
#26 US.WTW Willis Towers Watson · Financials

-1.71%

P25-4.16% Down75% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score47 DownOpp4.398
View chart 開富途
#27 US.CINF Cincinnati Financial · Financials

-1.64%

P25-4.28% Down77.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score57.9 DownOpp4.326
View chart 開富途
#28 US.SPGI S&P Global · Financials

-2.50%

P25-4.69% Down62.5% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score52 DownOpp4.283
View chart 開富途
#29 US.PCAR Paccar · Industrials

-1.73%

P25-3.94% Down72.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 0% Score41 DownOpp4.208
View chart 開富途
#30 US.CRH CRH plc · Materials

-2.24%

P25-4.32% Down72.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 10% Score43.8 DownOpp4.192
View chart 開富途
#31 US.LVS Las Vegas Sands · Consumer Discretionary

-1.65%

P25-5.00% Down75% Dn/Up525% / 7.5% Score40.1 DownOpp4.149
View chart 開富途
#32 US.SHW Sherwin-Williams · Materials

-1.85%

P25-3.79% Down72.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score40.1 DownOpp4.147
View chart 開富途
#33 US.DAL Delta Air Lines · Industrials

-1.88%

P25-4.95% Down70% Dn/Up525% / 5% Score38.7 DownOpp4.127
View chart 開富途
#34 US.IT Gartner · Information Technology

-2.06%

P25-4.77% Down70% Dn/Up525% / 5% Score57.9 DownOpp4.118
View chart 開富途
#35 US.MSI Motorola Solutions · Information Technology

-1.72%

P25-4.50% Down72.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score53.6 DownOpp4.093
View chart 開富途
#36 US.ALL Allstate · Financials

-1.70%

P25-4.69% Down70% Dn/Up522.5% / 0% Score51.1 DownOpp4.089
View chart 開富途
#37 US.HUM Humana · Health Care

-1.73%

P25-4.42% Down72.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 5% Score43.7 DownOpp4.007
View chart 開富途
#38 US.NSC Norfolk Southern · Industrials

-1.85%

P25-3.96% Down70% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score43.5 DownOpp3.964
View chart 開富途
#39 US.SNA Snap-on · Industrials

-1.85%

P25-3.96% Down70% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score43.8 DownOpp3.961
View chart 開富途
#40 US.GWW W. W. Grainger · Industrials

-1.61%

P25-3.48% Down72.5% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score42.8 DownOpp3.959
View chart 開富途
#41 US.BRO Brown & Brown · Financials

-1.69%

P25-3.92% Down70% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score44.7 DownOpp3.935
View chart 開富途
#42 US.IFF International Flavors & Fragrances · Materials

-2.24%

P25-4.60% Down70% Dn/Up525% / 12.5% Score43.1 DownOpp3.917
View chart 開富途
#43 US.HOOD Robinhood Markets · Financials

-2.33%

P25-4.30% Down67.5% Dn/Up515% / 10% Score45.7 DownOpp3.862
View chart 開富途
#44 US.TDG TransDigm Group · Industrials

-1.80%

P25-4.45% Down70% Dn/Up517.5% / 5% Score51.3 DownOpp3.828
View chart 開富途
#45 US.AMCR Amcor · Materials

-2.21%

P25-4.37% Down70% Dn/Up522.5% / 12.5% Score44.2 DownOpp3.821
View chart 開富途
#46 US.UAL United Airlines Holdings · Industrials

-1.74%

P25-4.89% Down70% Dn/Up522.5% / 7.5% Score40.9 DownOpp3.806
View chart 開富途
#47 US.CSX CSX Corporation · Industrials

-2.04%

P25-3.25% Down70% Dn/Up512.5% / 5% Score47.9 DownOpp3.793
View chart 開富途
#48 US.L Loews Corporation · Financials

-1.90%

P25-3.38% Down67.5% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score47.1 DownOpp3.792
View chart 開富途
#49 US.DLTR Dollar Tree · Consumer Staples

-2.19%

P25-3.58% Down65% Dn/Up517.5% / 5% Score43.8 DownOpp3.657
View chart 開富途
#50 US.STT State Street Corporation · Financials

-1.95%

P25-4.35% Down67.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 7.5% Score45.3 DownOpp3.648
View chart 開富途