Downside opportunities

Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

Materialized projections ranked by downside median, downside probability, and score quality.

Calibration status

3D · n=500

Shared DOE best setting from the as-of run for this snapshot.

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-03-10
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-03-10
DOE window 2026-01-22 → 2026-03-05
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年7月9日 下午5:47 HKT
Rows 50
Excluded uptrends 162

Downside ranking

US.ARES · -1.60% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-1.60%
Top down rate66.4%
Top P25-4.17%
DOE score2.268

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.ARES Ares Management · Financials

-1.60%

P25-4.17% Down66.4% Dn/Up517% / 4.6% Score42.5 DownOpp3.36
View chart 開富途
#2 US.BX Blackstone Inc. · Financials

-1.42%

P25-4.16% Down64.4% Dn/Up517% / 4.4% Score45.2 DownOpp3.009
View chart 開富途
#3 US.AMP Ameriprise Financial · Financials

-1.39%

P25-3.87% Down64.4% Dn/Up515.4% / 6.8% Score44.3 DownOpp2.769
View chart 開富途
#4 US.GPN Global Payments · Financials

-1.36%

P25-3.87% Down64.6% Dn/Up514.8% / 6.8% Score43.9 DownOpp2.758
View chart 開富途
#5 US.MET MetLife · Financials

-1.35%

P25-3.99% Down63.2% Dn/Up516% / 7% Score43.5 DownOpp2.657
View chart 開富途
#6 US.MS Morgan Stanley · Financials

-1.39%

P25-4.07% Down62.8% Dn/Up516.8% / 7.4% Score45.3 DownOpp2.648
View chart 開富途
#7 US.BEN Franklin Resources · Financials

-1.30%

P25-3.87% Down63.8% Dn/Up515% / 7% Score45.2 DownOpp2.613
View chart 開富途
#8 US.STT State Street Corporation · Financials

-1.33%

P25-3.92% Down62.6% Dn/Up517.2% / 7% Score43.9 DownOpp2.569
View chart 開富途
#9 US.AXP American Express · Financials

-1.27%

P25-3.86% Down63% Dn/Up515.4% / 7% Score43.3 DownOpp2.53
View chart 開富途
#10 US.NVDA Nvidia · Information Technology

-1.31%

P25-4.43% Down64% Dn/Up520.4% / 10.8% Score50.7 DownOpp2.509
View chart 開富途
#11 US.FISV Fiserv · Financials

-1.21%

P25-3.86% Down62.8% Dn/Up515.2% / 6.4% Score48.3 DownOpp2.453
View chart 開富途
#12 US.PYPL PayPal · Financials

-1.06%

P25-3.48% Down65.2% Dn/Up512.2% / 4.6% Score55.7 DownOpp2.452
View chart 開富途
#13 US.PRU Prudential Financial · Financials

-1.27%

P25-3.82% Down62.2% Dn/Up516.6% / 8.2% Score39.2 DownOpp2.415
View chart 開富途
#14 US.HBAN Huntington Bancshares · Financials

-1.29%

P25-3.87% Down61.8% Dn/Up516.6% / 7.6% Score44.5 DownOpp2.412
View chart 開富途
#15 US.GS Goldman Sachs · Financials

-1.17%

P25-3.85% Down62.6% Dn/Up515.2% / 7.4% Score42.7 DownOpp2.376
View chart 開富途
#16 US.FDS FactSet · Financials

-1.06%

P25-3.34% Down64.8% Dn/Up511.2% / 4.8% Score56.3 DownOpp2.369
View chart 開富途
#17 US.USB U.S. Bancorp · Financials

-1.16%

P25-3.72% Down62% Dn/Up515.2% / 6.8% Score49.8 DownOpp2.269
View chart 開富途
#18 US.PFG Principal Financial Group · Financials

-1.15%

P25-3.93% Down61% Dn/Up517.2% / 7.8% Score45.9 DownOpp2.2
View chart 開富途
#19 US.BAC Bank of America · Financials

-1.15%

P25-3.85% Down60.8% Dn/Up515.6% / 7.4% Score47.1 DownOpp2.179
View chart 開富途
#20 US.JPM JPMorgan Chase · Financials

-0.95%

P25-3.53% Down60.6% Dn/Up513.2% / 2.8% Score44.6 DownOpp2.178
View chart 開富途
#21 US.RJF Raymond James Financial · Financials

-1.12%

P25-4.08% Down60.4% Dn/Up518.6% / 8.2% Score43.8 DownOpp2.152
View chart 開富途
#22 US.NTRS Northern Trust · Financials

-1.15%

P25-4.08% Down60.4% Dn/Up518% / 9.4% Score42.2 DownOpp2.121
View chart 開富途
#23 US.MRSH Marsh McLennan · Financials

-0.89%

P25-3.24% Down60.4% Dn/Up511.6% / 1.6% Score47.4 DownOpp2.081
View chart 開富途
#24 US.COF Capital One · Financials

-1.11%

P25-3.92% Down60.4% Dn/Up517.4% / 9.2% Score39.8 DownOpp2.072
View chart 開富途
#25 US.KKR KKR & Co. · Financials

-1.06%

P25-3.71% Down60.2% Dn/Up516.4% / 7.4% Score42.4 DownOpp2.042
View chart 開富途
#26 US.SYF Synchrony Financial · Financials

-1.11%

P25-4.04% Down59.8% Dn/Up517.8% / 9.4% Score42.3 DownOpp2.023
View chart 開富途
#27 US.CSCO Cisco · Information Technology

-1.02%

P25-4.36% Down61.8% Dn/Up519.8% / 11.6% Score48.7 DownOpp1.993
View chart 開富途
#28 US.IVZ Invesco · Financials

-1.06%

P25-3.86% Down59.6% Dn/Up517.2% / 8.2% Score42.2 DownOpp1.985
View chart 開富途
#29 US.PGR Progressive Corporation · Financials

-0.81%

P25-2.85% Down61.4% Dn/Up59.6% / 0.8% Score54.7 DownOpp1.976
View chart 開富途
#30 US.TFC Truist Financial · Financials

-1.11%

P25-3.79% Down59.6% Dn/Up516.8% / 8.8% Score43.1 DownOpp1.974
View chart 開富途
#31 US.AAPL Apple Inc. · Information Technology

-1.04%

P25-4.36% Down61.2% Dn/Up520% / 11.2% Score51 DownOpp1.972
View chart 開富途
#32 US.NUE Nucor · Materials

-0.86%

P25-3.43% Down61.2% Dn/Up513.8% / 5.8% Score46.5 DownOpp1.917
View chart 開富途
#33 US.MCO Moody's Corporation · Financials

-0.76%

P25-3.10% Down60.6% Dn/Up59.6% / 1.4% Score51.9 DownOpp1.91
View chart 開富途
#34 US.MLM Martin Marietta Materials · Materials

-0.89%

P25-3.26% Down61.2% Dn/Up513% / 5.8% Score46.5 DownOpp1.904
View chart 開富途
#35 US.BNY BNY Mellon · Financials

-0.87%

P25-3.50% Down58% Dn/Up514.2% / 3.4% Score39.9 DownOpp1.882
View chart 開富途
#36 US.WTW Willis Towers Watson · Financials

-0.75%

P25-3.19% Down59.6% Dn/Up511.4% / 1.2% Score51 DownOpp1.861
View chart 開富途
#37 US.AON Aon plc · Financials

-0.72%

P25-2.83% Down60.6% Dn/Up59% / 1% Score53.7 DownOpp1.813
View chart 開富途
#38 US.MGM MGM Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-0.88%

P25-3.57% Down60% Dn/Up514.4% / 6.4% Score50.4 DownOpp1.81
View chart 開富途
#39 US.SHW Sherwin-Williams · Materials

-0.85%

P25-3.51% Down59.6% Dn/Up513.8% / 6.8% Score43.9 DownOpp1.758
View chart 開富途
#40 US.AIG American International Group · Financials

-0.72%

P25-2.98% Down59.6% Dn/Up59.8% / 1.4% Score52.1 DownOpp1.758
View chart 開富途
#41 US.AIZ Assurant · Financials

-0.70%

P25-3.23% Down58.8% Dn/Up512.2% / 2.2% Score46 DownOpp1.734
View chart 開富途
#42 US.PKG Packaging Corporation of America · Materials

-0.93%

P25-3.83% Down58.6% Dn/Up518.4% / 8.6% Score44.6 DownOpp1.725
View chart 開富途
#43 US.TROW T. Rowe Price · Financials

-0.74%

P25-3.37% Down58.6% Dn/Up514.4% / 3.8% Score43.7 DownOpp1.715
View chart 開富途
#44 US.CPAY Corpay · Financials

-0.84%

P25-3.56% Down60% Dn/Up514% / 7.2% Score51.5 DownOpp1.712
View chart 開富途
#45 US.MOS Mosaic Company (The) · Materials

-1.15%

P25-4.22% Down58.6% Dn/Up519.6% / 14.8% Score41.6 DownOpp1.693
View chart 開富途
#46 US.RF Regions Financial Corporation · Financials

-0.67%

P25-3.15% Down58.6% Dn/Up511.2% / 1.6% Score48.2 DownOpp1.688
View chart 開富途
#47 US.ABNB Airbnb · Consumer Discretionary

-0.82%

P25-3.44% Down59% Dn/Up514.6% / 5.4% Score54.6 DownOpp1.667
View chart 開富途
#48 US.EG Everest Group · Financials

-0.68%

P25-3.21% Down58% Dn/Up511.4% / 1.8% Score47.2 DownOpp1.66
View chart 開富途
#49 US.C Citigroup · Financials

-0.89%

P25-3.81% Down58.4% Dn/Up515.8% / 8.6% Score47.9 DownOpp1.639
View chart 開富途
#50 US.DRI Darden Restaurants · Consumer Discretionary

-0.81%

P25-3.28% Down60.6% Dn/Up514% / 8.4% Score45 DownOpp1.636
View chart 開富途