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Rolling projection DOE

Find the projection setup whose median is closest to actual outcomes.

Replay completed anchors and rank horizon × sample-size settings by projection error.

Snapshot 2026-09-11
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-09-11
Window 2026-07-08 → 2026-09-08
Anchors 120
Lookback 730D
Confidence low
Computed at 2026年9月12日 上午7:45 HKT
Point-in-time Point-in-time safe

Best rolling setting

3D · n=80

DOE results snapshot · Window: 2026-07-08 → 2026-09-08 · anchors: 120 · latest snapshot: 2026-09-11 · computed at: 2026年9月12日 上午7:45 HKT

Median abs error2.51%
Mean abs error3.37%
Bias+0.16%
Inside P25/P7547.5%

DOE setting comparison

Same idea as score-vs-outcome analysis: compare each parameter setting by observed actual-minus-median error over rolling completed anchors. Lower median abs error and lower bias win.

Setting Median abs Bias P25/P75 hit n Read
Setting 3D · n=80
Median abs 2.51%
Bias +0.16%
P25/P75 hit 47.5%
n 120
Rank Best setting
Setting 3D · n=40
Median abs 2.47%
Bias +0.17%
P25/P75 hit 45.8%
n 120
Rank #2 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=500
Median abs 2.62%
Bias -0.05%
P25/P75 hit 44.2%
n 120
Rank #3 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=320
Median abs 2.61%
Bias -0.02%
P25/P75 hit 44.2%
n 120
Rank #4 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=160
Median abs 2.6%
Bias +0.11%
P25/P75 hit 45%
n 120
Rank #5 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=120
Median abs 2.61%
Bias +0.17%
P25/P75 hit 46.7%
n 120
Rank #6 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=240
Median abs 2.72%
Bias +0.01%
P25/P75 hit 45.8%
n 120
Rank #7 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=500
Median abs 2.9%
Bias -0.04%
P25/P75 hit 49.6%
n 115
Rank #8 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=320
Median abs 2.9%
Bias +0.07%
P25/P75 hit 49.6%
n 115
Rank #9 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=240
Median abs 2.87%
Bias +0.19%
P25/P75 hit 48.7%
n 115
Rank #10 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=120
Median abs 2.98%
Bias +0.35%
P25/P75 hit 49.6%
n 115
Rank #11 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=160
Median abs 3.03%
Bias +0.31%
P25/P75 hit 49.6%
n 115
Rank #12 Candidate

Best setting 3D · n=80: median projection vs actual return

-4 -1 2 -22.00% 0.00% +18.00% US.OXY Median projection -0.85, actual return +2.28%, runup +3.13%, drawdown -3.13%US.ANET Median projection 0.22, actual return +0.06%, runup -0.16%, drawdown -0.16%US.MPC Median projection -1.19, actual return +5.77%, runup +6.96%, drawdown -6.96%US.VLO Median projection -1.07, actual return +4.56%, runup +5.63%, drawdown -5.63%US.AAPL Median projection -1.21, actual return -0.43%, runup +0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.AES Median projection -0.88, actual return +0.48%, runup +1.36%, drawdown -1.36%US.MPC Median projection -1.14, actual return +7.09%, runup +8.23%, drawdown -8.23%US.ANET Median projection -1.14, actual return -1.15%, runup -0.01%, drawdown -0.01%US.CDW Median projection -3.4, actual return -9.37%, runup -5.97%, drawdown -5.97%US.META Median projection -0.18, actual return +1.81%, runup +1.99%, drawdown -1.99%US.BBY Median projection -0.04, actual return +3.10%, runup +3.14%, drawdown -3.14%US.VLO Median projection -1.97, actual return +4.26%, runup +6.23%, drawdown -6.23%US.DG Median projection -0.2, actual return +3.01%, runup +3.21%, drawdown -3.21%US.VLO Median projection -1.57, actual return +1.51%, runup +3.08%, drawdown -3.08%US.PSX Median projection -1.18, actual return +1.53%, runup +2.71%, drawdown -2.71%US.WRB Median projection 0.33, actual return -5.34%, runup -5.67%, drawdown -5.67%US.XYZ Median projection -0.83, actual return -3.08%, runup -2.25%, drawdown -2.25%US.MTB Median projection 0.25, actual return +0.37%, runup +0.12%, drawdown -0.12%US.PYPL Median projection -0.03, actual return +2.34%, runup +2.37%, drawdown -2.37%US.BNY Median projection -0.16, actual return -3.34%, runup -3.18%, drawdown -3.18%US.CFG Median projection 0.29, actual return -3.23%, runup -3.52%, drawdown -3.52%US.PLD Median projection -0.1, actual return -0.08%, runup +0.02%, drawdown -0.02%US.JBHT Median projection -0.2, actual return -1.73%, runup -1.53%, drawdown -1.53%US.CTAS Median projection -0.88, actual return -2.83%, runup -1.95%, drawdown -1.95%US.SATS Median projection 0.82, actual return -6.63%, runup -7.45%, drawdown -7.45%US.TRV Median projection 0.58, actual return +2.14%, runup +1.56%, drawdown -1.56%US.MPC Median projection -1.11, actual return -0.96%, runup +0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.GPN Median projection -0.01, actual return -5.48%, runup -5.47%, drawdown -5.47%US.PLD Median projection -0.39, actual return -1.60%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.HAS Median projection -1.04, actual return +0.01%, runup +1.05%, drawdown -1.05%US.MMM Median projection -1.04, actual return +1.09%, runup +2.13%, drawdown -2.13%US.EOG Median projection -0.56, actual return +2.06%, runup +2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.EFX Median projection 0.05, actual return -0.27%, runup -0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.T Median projection -0.28, actual return +5.99%, runup +6.27%, drawdown -6.27%US.TRV Median projection 0.11, actual return +4.91%, runup +4.80%, drawdown -4.80%US.WAB Median projection -1.04, actual return +3.76%, runup +4.80%, drawdown -4.80%US.PCAR Median projection -1.03, actual return +1.78%, runup +2.81%, drawdown -2.81%US.CSX Median projection -0.12, actual return -3.73%, runup -3.61%, drawdown -3.61%US.RTX Median projection -1.04, actual return +4.50%, runup +5.54%, drawdown -5.54%US.NSC Median projection -1, actual return -2.79%, runup -1.79%, drawdown -1.79%US.DGX Median projection -0.94, actual return +3.53%, runup +4.47%, drawdown -4.47%US.SLB Median projection -1.7, actual return -6.60%, runup -4.90%, drawdown -4.90%US.IP Median projection -0.34, actual return +1.14%, runup +1.48%, drawdown -1.48%US.PKG Median projection -1.06, actual return -1.95%, runup -0.89%, drawdown -0.89%US.WAB Median projection -0.26, actual return -3.55%, runup -3.29%, drawdown -3.29%US.UHS Median projection -0.94, actual return +1.34%, runup +2.28%, drawdown -2.28%US.ITW Median projection -0.2, actual return -2.78%, runup -2.58%, drawdown -2.58%US.SHW Median projection -0.52, actual return -3.79%, runup -3.27%, drawdown -3.27%US.IQV Median projection -0.94, actual return -3.26%, runup -2.32%, drawdown -2.32%US.GRMN Median projection -1, actual return +3.37%, runup +4.37%, drawdown -4.37%US.BXP Median projection -1, actual return -3.51%, runup -2.51%, drawdown -2.51%US.ADP Median projection -1.04, actual return -1.31%, runup -0.27%, drawdown -0.27%US.GEHC Median projection -1, actual return -3.02%, runup -2.02%, drawdown -2.02%US.WTW Median projection -0.16, actual return +1.07%, runup +1.23%, drawdown -1.23%US.CMG Median projection -1.02, actual return -12.20%, runup -11.18%, drawdown -11.18%US.BAX Median projection -1.18, actual return +5.98%, runup +7.16%, drawdown -7.16%US.MSFT Median projection -1.72, actual return +9.25%, runup +10.97%, drawdown -10.97%US.AMZN Median projection -1.06, actual return +0.39%, runup +1.45%, drawdown -1.45%US.CBOE Median projection -0.25, actual return -8.21%, runup -7.96%, drawdown -7.96%US.DXCM Median projection -1.18, actual return -0.95%, runup +0.23%, drawdown -0.23%US.REGN Median projection -0.47, actual return +0.78%, runup +1.25%, drawdown -1.25%US.PLTR Median projection -1.75, actual return +5.75%, runup +7.50%, drawdown -7.50%US.RMD Median projection -0.47, actual return -5.02%, runup -4.55%, drawdown -4.55%US.FSLR Median projection -1.81, actual return +2.64%, runup +4.45%, drawdown -4.45%US.ZBRA Median projection -2.56, actual return +2.08%, runup +4.64%, drawdown -4.64%US.ANET Median projection -1.51, actual return -2.93%, runup -1.42%, drawdown -1.42%US.ZBH Median projection -0.97, actual return -0.39%, runup +0.58%, drawdown -0.58%US.EMR Median projection -1.63, actual return -2.31%, runup -0.68%, drawdown -0.68%US.AIZ Median projection -1.08, actual return -4.76%, runup -3.68%, drawdown -3.68%US.APA Median projection -0.08, actual return -2.49%, runup -2.41%, drawdown -2.41%US.EXE Median projection -1.08, actual return -2.95%, runup -1.87%, drawdown -1.87%US.ABNB Median projection -0.08, actual return +0.23%, runup +0.31%, drawdown -0.31%US.VRTX Median projection -0.88, actual return -1.43%, runup -0.55%, drawdown -0.55%US.TER Median projection -1.02, actual return -13.54%, runup -12.52%, drawdown -12.52%US.LITE Median projection -0.47, actual return -9.25%, runup -8.78%, drawdown -8.78%US.DVN Median projection -0.99, actual return +3.64%, runup +4.63%, drawdown -4.63%US.PSX Median projection -0.91, actual return -0.23%, runup +0.68%, drawdown -0.68%US.OKE Median projection 0.08, actual return -3.85%, runup -3.93%, drawdown -3.93%US.MPC Median projection -0.4, actual return -1.50%, runup -1.10%, drawdown -1.10%US.EOG Median projection -0.46, actual return +2.93%, runup +3.39%, drawdown -3.39%US.TRGP Median projection -0.86, actual return +0.45%, runup +1.31%, drawdown -1.31%US.TGT Median projection -0.19, actual return +6.85%, runup +7.04%, drawdown -7.04%US.MRNA Median projection -0.98, actual return -20.35%, runup -19.37%, drawdown -19.37%US.CSGP Median projection -0.81, actual return -2.64%, runup -1.83%, drawdown -1.83%US.MRK Median projection -0.87, actual return -1.01%, runup -0.14%, drawdown -0.14%US.HOOD Median projection 0.12, actual return +0.38%, runup +0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.RVTY Median projection -0.69, actual return +1.28%, runup +1.97%, drawdown -1.97%US.FCX Median projection -0.88, actual return +3.05%, runup +3.93%, drawdown -3.93%US.EL Median projection -0.34, actual return +3.06%, runup +3.40%, drawdown -3.40%US.V Median projection -1.09, actual return -0.72%, runup +0.37%, drawdown -0.37%US.FCX Median projection -0.73, actual return +0.80%, runup +1.53%, drawdown -1.53%US.TGT Median projection -0.25, actual return -2.33%, runup -2.08%, drawdown -2.08%US.EL Median projection -0.6, actual return +2.00%, runup +2.60%, drawdown -2.60%US.HOOD Median projection -1.02, actual return -6.99%, runup -5.97%, drawdown -5.97%US.RMD Median projection -0.82, actual return +1.58%, runup +2.40%, drawdown -2.40%US.MRK Median projection -1.01, actual return -5.18%, runup -4.17%, drawdown -4.17%US.FCX Median projection -0.17, actual return -4.33%, runup -4.16%, drawdown -4.16%US.EXPD Median projection -0.17, actual return -0.28%, runup -0.11%, drawdown -0.11%US.RVTY Median projection -0.37, actual return +1.84%, runup +2.21%, drawdown -2.21%US.SJM Median projection -0.21, actual return +0.20%, runup +0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.GEN Median projection 0.16, actual return +4.59%, runup +4.43%, drawdown -4.43%US.SATS Median projection 0.61, actual return -0.50%, runup -1.11%, drawdown -1.11%US.CRM Median projection -0.55, actual return +0.36%, runup +0.91%, drawdown -0.91%US.NOW Median projection -1.33, actual return -5.52%, runup -4.19%, drawdown -4.19%US.SLB Median projection -0.37, actual return +1.40%, runup +1.77%, drawdown -1.77%US.GEN Median projection -0.64, actual return -1.19%, runup -0.55%, drawdown -0.55%US.SLB Median projection -1.97, actual return -4.48%, runup -2.51%, drawdown -2.51%US.QCOM Median projection -1.27, actual return -1.12%, runup +0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.HAL Median projection -1, actual return +1.19%, runup +2.19%, drawdown -2.19%US.NOW Median projection -1.43, actual return -1.62%, runup -0.19%, drawdown -0.19%US.SATS Median projection 0.51, actual return +7.76%, runup +7.25%, drawdown -7.25%US.HOOD Median projection -1.01, actual return -7.57%, runup -6.56%, drawdown -6.56%US.DELL Median projection -1.31, actual return +3.65%, runup +4.96%, drawdown -4.96%US.ELV Median projection -0.93, actual return -4.31%, runup -3.38%, drawdown -3.38%US.PFG Median projection -1.1, actual return -3.79%, runup -2.69%, drawdown -2.69%US.SATS Median projection 1.02, actual return +2.28%, runup +1.26%, drawdown -1.26%US.SWKS Median projection -1.25, actual return +17.21%, runup +18.46%, drawdown -18.46%US.BG Median projection -0.93, actual return -1.19%, runup -0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.VLO Median projection 0.44, actual return +1.98%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.ORCL Median projection -1.13, actual return -7.53%, runup -6.40%, drawdown -6.40% Bucket avg Median projection -3.0, actual return -3.64%, n 2Bucket avg Median projection -0.8, actual return -0.62%, n 103Bucket avg Median projection 0.4, actual return +0.31%, n 15 Corr +0.05 R² 0.3% n 120 Median projection return Actual return

X = Median projection return. Y = actual return. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: -0.55%

Best setting 3D · n=80: median projection vs forecast error

-4 -1 2 -20.00% 0.00% +20.00% US.OXY Median projection -0.85, forecast error +3.13%, runup +3.13%, drawdown -3.13%US.ANET Median projection 0.22, forecast error -0.16%, runup -0.16%, drawdown -0.16%US.MPC Median projection -1.19, forecast error +6.96%, runup +6.96%, drawdown -6.96%US.VLO Median projection -1.07, forecast error +5.63%, runup +5.63%, drawdown -5.63%US.AAPL Median projection -1.21, forecast error +0.78%, runup +0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.AES Median projection -0.88, forecast error +1.36%, runup +1.36%, drawdown -1.36%US.MPC Median projection -1.14, forecast error +8.23%, runup +8.23%, drawdown -8.23%US.ANET Median projection -1.14, forecast error -0.01%, runup -0.01%, drawdown -0.01%US.CDW Median projection -3.4, forecast error -5.97%, runup -5.97%, drawdown -5.97%US.META Median projection -0.18, forecast error +1.99%, runup +1.99%, drawdown -1.99%US.BBY Median projection -0.04, forecast error +3.14%, runup +3.14%, drawdown -3.14%US.VLO Median projection -1.97, forecast error +6.23%, runup +6.23%, drawdown -6.23%US.DG Median projection -0.2, forecast error +3.21%, runup +3.21%, drawdown -3.21%US.VLO Median projection -1.57, forecast error +3.08%, runup +3.08%, drawdown -3.08%US.PSX Median projection -1.18, forecast error +2.71%, runup +2.71%, drawdown -2.71%US.WRB Median projection 0.33, forecast error -5.67%, runup -5.67%, drawdown -5.67%US.XYZ Median projection -0.83, forecast error -2.25%, runup -2.25%, drawdown -2.25%US.MTB Median projection 0.25, forecast error +0.12%, runup +0.12%, drawdown -0.12%US.PYPL Median projection -0.03, forecast error +2.37%, runup +2.37%, drawdown -2.37%US.BNY Median projection -0.16, forecast error -3.18%, runup -3.18%, drawdown -3.18%US.CFG Median projection 0.29, forecast error -3.52%, runup -3.52%, drawdown -3.52%US.PLD Median projection -0.1, forecast error +0.02%, runup +0.02%, drawdown -0.02%US.JBHT Median projection -0.2, forecast error -1.53%, runup -1.53%, drawdown -1.53%US.CTAS Median projection -0.88, forecast error -1.95%, runup -1.95%, drawdown -1.95%US.SATS Median projection 0.82, forecast error -7.45%, runup -7.45%, drawdown -7.45%US.TRV Median projection 0.58, forecast error +1.56%, runup +1.56%, drawdown -1.56%US.MPC Median projection -1.11, forecast error +0.15%, runup +0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.GPN Median projection -0.01, forecast error -5.47%, runup -5.47%, drawdown -5.47%US.PLD Median projection -0.39, forecast error -1.21%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.HAS Median projection -1.04, forecast error +1.05%, runup +1.05%, drawdown -1.05%US.MMM Median projection -1.04, forecast error +2.13%, runup +2.13%, drawdown -2.13%US.EOG Median projection -0.56, forecast error +2.62%, runup +2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.EFX Median projection 0.05, forecast error -0.32%, runup -0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.T Median projection -0.28, forecast error +6.27%, runup +6.27%, drawdown -6.27%US.TRV Median projection 0.11, forecast error +4.80%, runup +4.80%, drawdown -4.80%US.WAB Median projection -1.04, forecast error +4.80%, runup +4.80%, drawdown -4.80%US.PCAR Median projection -1.03, forecast error +2.81%, runup +2.81%, drawdown -2.81%US.CSX Median projection -0.12, forecast error -3.61%, runup -3.61%, drawdown -3.61%US.RTX Median projection -1.04, forecast error +5.54%, runup +5.54%, drawdown -5.54%US.NSC Median projection -1, forecast error -1.79%, runup -1.79%, drawdown -1.79%US.DGX Median projection -0.94, forecast error +4.47%, runup +4.47%, drawdown -4.47%US.SLB Median projection -1.7, forecast error -4.90%, runup -4.90%, drawdown -4.90%US.IP Median projection -0.34, forecast error +1.48%, runup +1.48%, drawdown -1.48%US.PKG Median projection -1.06, forecast error -0.89%, runup -0.89%, drawdown -0.89%US.WAB Median projection -0.26, forecast error -3.29%, runup -3.29%, drawdown -3.29%US.UHS Median projection -0.94, forecast error +2.28%, runup +2.28%, drawdown -2.28%US.ITW Median projection -0.2, forecast error -2.58%, runup -2.58%, drawdown -2.58%US.SHW Median projection -0.52, forecast error -3.27%, runup -3.27%, drawdown -3.27%US.IQV Median projection -0.94, forecast error -2.32%, runup -2.32%, drawdown -2.32%US.GRMN Median projection -1, forecast error +4.37%, runup +4.37%, drawdown -4.37%US.BXP Median projection -1, forecast error -2.51%, runup -2.51%, drawdown -2.51%US.ADP Median projection -1.04, forecast error -0.27%, runup -0.27%, drawdown -0.27%US.GEHC Median projection -1, forecast error -2.02%, runup -2.02%, drawdown -2.02%US.WTW Median projection -0.16, forecast error +1.23%, runup +1.23%, drawdown -1.23%US.CMG Median projection -1.02, forecast error -11.18%, runup -11.18%, drawdown -11.18%US.BAX Median projection -1.18, forecast error +7.16%, runup +7.16%, drawdown -7.16%US.MSFT Median projection -1.72, forecast error +10.97%, runup +10.97%, drawdown -10.97%US.AMZN Median projection -1.06, forecast error +1.45%, runup +1.45%, drawdown -1.45%US.CBOE Median projection -0.25, forecast error -7.96%, runup -7.96%, drawdown -7.96%US.DXCM Median projection -1.18, forecast error +0.23%, runup +0.23%, drawdown -0.23%US.REGN Median projection -0.47, forecast error +1.25%, runup +1.25%, drawdown -1.25%US.PLTR Median projection -1.75, forecast error +7.50%, runup +7.50%, drawdown -7.50%US.RMD Median projection -0.47, forecast error -4.55%, runup -4.55%, drawdown -4.55%US.FSLR Median projection -1.81, forecast error +4.45%, runup +4.45%, drawdown -4.45%US.ZBRA Median projection -2.56, forecast error +4.64%, runup +4.64%, drawdown -4.64%US.ANET Median projection -1.51, forecast error -1.42%, runup -1.42%, drawdown -1.42%US.ZBH Median projection -0.97, forecast error +0.58%, runup +0.58%, drawdown -0.58%US.EMR Median projection -1.63, forecast error -0.68%, runup -0.68%, drawdown -0.68%US.AIZ Median projection -1.08, forecast error -3.68%, runup -3.68%, drawdown -3.68%US.APA Median projection -0.08, forecast error -2.41%, runup -2.41%, drawdown -2.41%US.EXE Median projection -1.08, forecast error -1.87%, runup -1.87%, drawdown -1.87%US.ABNB Median projection -0.08, forecast error +0.31%, runup +0.31%, drawdown -0.31%US.VRTX Median projection -0.88, forecast error -0.55%, runup -0.55%, drawdown -0.55%US.TER Median projection -1.02, forecast error -12.52%, runup -12.52%, drawdown -12.52%US.LITE Median projection -0.47, forecast error -8.78%, runup -8.78%, drawdown -8.78%US.DVN Median projection -0.99, forecast error +4.63%, runup +4.63%, drawdown -4.63%US.PSX Median projection -0.91, forecast error +0.68%, runup +0.68%, drawdown -0.68%US.OKE Median projection 0.08, forecast error -3.93%, runup -3.93%, drawdown -3.93%US.MPC Median projection -0.4, forecast error -1.10%, runup -1.10%, drawdown -1.10%US.EOG Median projection -0.46, forecast error +3.39%, runup +3.39%, drawdown -3.39%US.TRGP Median projection -0.86, forecast error +1.31%, runup +1.31%, drawdown -1.31%US.TGT Median projection -0.19, forecast error +7.04%, runup +7.04%, drawdown -7.04%US.MRNA Median projection -0.98, forecast error -19.37%, runup -19.37%, drawdown -19.37%US.CSGP Median projection -0.81, forecast error -1.83%, runup -1.83%, drawdown -1.83%US.MRK Median projection -0.87, forecast error -0.14%, runup -0.14%, drawdown -0.14%US.HOOD Median projection 0.12, forecast error +0.26%, runup +0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.RVTY Median projection -0.69, forecast error +1.97%, runup +1.97%, drawdown -1.97%US.FCX Median projection -0.88, forecast error +3.93%, runup +3.93%, drawdown -3.93%US.EL Median projection -0.34, forecast error +3.40%, runup +3.40%, drawdown -3.40%US.V Median projection -1.09, forecast error +0.37%, runup +0.37%, drawdown -0.37%US.FCX Median projection -0.73, forecast error +1.53%, runup +1.53%, drawdown -1.53%US.TGT Median projection -0.25, forecast error -2.08%, runup -2.08%, drawdown -2.08%US.EL Median projection -0.6, forecast error +2.60%, runup +2.60%, drawdown -2.60%US.HOOD Median projection -1.02, forecast error -5.97%, runup -5.97%, drawdown -5.97%US.RMD Median projection -0.82, forecast error +2.40%, runup +2.40%, drawdown -2.40%US.MRK Median projection -1.01, forecast error -4.17%, runup -4.17%, drawdown -4.17%US.FCX Median projection -0.17, forecast error -4.16%, runup -4.16%, drawdown -4.16%US.EXPD Median projection -0.17, forecast error -0.11%, runup -0.11%, drawdown -0.11%US.RVTY Median projection -0.37, forecast error +2.21%, runup +2.21%, drawdown -2.21%US.SJM Median projection -0.21, forecast error +0.41%, runup +0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.GEN Median projection 0.16, forecast error +4.43%, runup +4.43%, drawdown -4.43%US.SATS Median projection 0.61, forecast error -1.11%, runup -1.11%, drawdown -1.11%US.CRM Median projection -0.55, forecast error +0.91%, runup +0.91%, drawdown -0.91%US.NOW Median projection -1.33, forecast error -4.19%, runup -4.19%, drawdown -4.19%US.SLB Median projection -0.37, forecast error +1.77%, runup +1.77%, drawdown -1.77%US.GEN Median projection -0.64, forecast error -0.55%, runup -0.55%, drawdown -0.55%US.SLB Median projection -1.97, forecast error -2.51%, runup -2.51%, drawdown -2.51%US.QCOM Median projection -1.27, forecast error +0.15%, runup +0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.HAL Median projection -1, forecast error +2.19%, runup +2.19%, drawdown -2.19%US.NOW Median projection -1.43, forecast error -0.19%, runup -0.19%, drawdown -0.19%US.SATS Median projection 0.51, forecast error +7.25%, runup +7.25%, drawdown -7.25%US.HOOD Median projection -1.01, forecast error -6.56%, runup -6.56%, drawdown -6.56%US.DELL Median projection -1.31, forecast error +4.96%, runup +4.96%, drawdown -4.96%US.ELV Median projection -0.93, forecast error -3.38%, runup -3.38%, drawdown -3.38%US.PFG Median projection -1.1, forecast error -2.69%, runup -2.69%, drawdown -2.69%US.SATS Median projection 1.02, forecast error +1.26%, runup +1.26%, drawdown -1.26%US.SWKS Median projection -1.25, forecast error +18.46%, runup +18.46%, drawdown -18.46%US.BG Median projection -0.93, forecast error -0.26%, runup -0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.VLO Median projection 0.44, forecast error +1.54%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.ORCL Median projection -1.13, forecast error -6.40%, runup -6.40%, drawdown -6.40% Bucket avg Median projection -3.0, forecast error -0.67%, n 2Bucket avg Median projection -0.8, forecast error +0.21%, n 103Bucket avg Median projection 0.4, forecast error -0.06%, n 15 Corr -0.09 R² 0.8% n 120 Median projection return Actual - median

X = Median projection return. Y = actual - median. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +0.16%

DOE ranking

Ranked by a composite DOE score: lower median/mean absolute error, lower bias, enough anchors, and better IQR coverage.

Rank Horizon n Median abs Mean abs Bias Inside P25/P75 Anchors DOE score
#1 3D 80 2.51% 3.37% +0.16% 47.5% 120 2.34
#2 3D 40 2.47% 3.52% +0.17% 45.8% 120 2.378
#3 3D 500 2.62% 3.38% -0.05% 44.2% 120 2.39
#4 3D 320 2.61% 3.41% -0.02% 44.2% 120 2.391
#5 3D 160 2.6% 3.45% +0.11% 45% 120 2.412
#6 3D 120 2.61% 3.44% +0.17% 46.7% 120 2.418
#7 3D 240 2.72% 3.43% +0.01% 45.8% 120 2.448
#8 5D 500 2.9% 3.94% -0.04% 49.6% 115 2.711
#9 5D 320 2.9% 3.94% +0.07% 49.6% 115 2.715
#10 5D 240 2.87% 3.95% +0.19% 48.7% 115 2.724
#11 5D 120 2.98% 3.97% +0.35% 49.6% 115 2.808
#12 5D 160 3.03% 3.96% +0.31% 49.6% 115 2.823
#13 5D 40 2.77% 4.29% +0.69% 45.2% 115 2.877
#14 5D 80 2.98% 4.1% +0.57% 48.7% 115 2.889
#15 10D 500 3.41% 4.26% +0.24% 61.4% 101 3.078
#16 10D 320 3.4% 4.35% +0.49% 60.4% 101 3.145
#17 10D 240 3.49% 4.41% +0.60% 62.4% 101 3.222
#18 10D 120 3.5% 4.53% +0.71% 64.4% 101 3.281
#19 15D 500 3.37% 4.86% +0.43% 64.7% 85 3.289
#20 10D 160 3.64% 4.54% +0.73% 60.4% 101 3.368
#21 10D 40 3.36% 4.79% +1.18% 54.5% 101 3.397
#22 10D 80 3.86% 4.6% +0.81% 60.4% 101 3.511
#23 20D 320 3.73% 4.65% +1.68% 72.6% 73 3.563
#24 20D 240 3.53% 4.83% +2.11% 72.6% 73 3.59
#25 20D 500 4.18% 4.55% +1.05% 76.7% 73 3.648
#26 15D 320 4.08% 5.08% +0.92% 63.5% 85 3.797
#27 20D 160 3.77% 5.12% +2.43% 72.6% 73 3.86
#28 15D 240 4.43% 5.3% +1.23% 65.9% 85 4.09
#29 15D 160 4.65% 5.5% +1.61% 62.4% 85 4.336
#30 15D 120 4.73% 5.51% +1.79% 62.4% 85 4.406