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Rolling projection DOE

Find the projection setup whose median is closest to actual outcomes.

Replay completed anchors and rank horizon × sample-size settings by projection error.

Snapshot 2026-07-30
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-07-30
Window 2026-06-09 → 2026-07-24
Anchors 120
Lookback 730D
Confidence low
Computed at 2026年7月31日 上午7:47 HKT
Point-in-time Point-in-time safe

Best rolling setting

3D · n=500

DOE results snapshot · Window: 2026-06-09 → 2026-07-24 · anchors: 120 · latest snapshot: 2026-07-30 · computed at: 2026年7月31日 上午7:47 HKT

Median abs error2.71%
Mean abs error3.55%
Bias+0.18%
Inside P25/P7549.2%

DOE setting comparison

Same idea as score-vs-outcome analysis: compare each parameter setting by observed actual-minus-median error over rolling completed anchors. Lower median abs error and lower bias win.

Setting Median abs Bias P25/P75 hit n Read
Setting 3D · n=500
Median abs 2.71%
Bias +0.18%
P25/P75 hit 49.2%
n 120
Rank Best setting
Setting 3D · n=320
Median abs 2.72%
Bias +0.18%
P25/P75 hit 47.5%
n 120
Rank #2 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=40
Median abs 2.63%
Bias +0.20%
P25/P75 hit 43.3%
n 120
Rank #3 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=80
Median abs 2.76%
Bias +0.14%
P25/P75 hit 47.5%
n 120
Rank #4 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=160
Median abs 2.76%
Bias +0.13%
P25/P75 hit 46.7%
n 120
Rank #5 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=120
Median abs 2.8%
Bias +0.13%
P25/P75 hit 50%
n 120
Rank #6 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=240
Median abs 2.83%
Bias +0.14%
P25/P75 hit 46.7%
n 120
Rank #7 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=320
Median abs 3.58%
Bias -0.05%
P25/P75 hit 51.7%
n 116
Rank #8 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=240
Median abs 3.62%
Bias -0.02%
P25/P75 hit 52.6%
n 116
Rank #9 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=500
Median abs 3.6%
Bias -0.10%
P25/P75 hit 48.3%
n 116
Rank #10 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=120
Median abs 3.74%
Bias +0.06%
P25/P75 hit 52.6%
n 116
Rank #11 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=40
Median abs 3.44%
Bias +0.43%
P25/P75 hit 44.8%
n 116
Rank #12 Candidate

Best setting 3D · n=500: median projection vs actual return

-2 0 2 -24.00% 0.00% +16.00% US.SJM Median projection -0.13, actual return +3.65%, runup +3.78%, drawdown -3.78%US.CNC Median projection -0.12, actual return -1.54%, runup -1.42%, drawdown -1.42%US.KIM Median projection -0.21, actual return +2.86%, runup +3.07%, drawdown -3.07%US.COO Median projection -0.02, actual return -1.08%, runup -1.06%, drawdown -1.06%US.USB Median projection 0.04, actual return +1.73%, runup +1.69%, drawdown -1.69%US.CAH Median projection -0.31, actual return +4.67%, runup +4.98%, drawdown -4.98%US.SJM Median projection -0.13, actual return -0.95%, runup -0.82%, drawdown -0.82%US.CASY Median projection 0.27, actual return -4.72%, runup -4.99%, drawdown -4.99%US.GD Median projection -0.26, actual return +1.46%, runup +1.72%, drawdown -1.72%US.SNDK Median projection 0.71, actual return +5.85%, runup +5.14%, drawdown -5.14%US.KIM Median projection 0, actual return -2.52%, runup -2.52%, drawdown -2.52%US.LRCX Median projection 0.68, actual return +1.88%, runup +1.20%, drawdown -1.20%US.CCL Median projection -0.53, actual return +2.50%, runup +3.03%, drawdown -3.03%US.WSM Median projection -0.36, actual return -1.07%, runup -0.71%, drawdown -0.71%US.JBL Median projection 1.02, actual return -2.56%, runup -3.58%, drawdown -3.58%US.SNDK Median projection 0.82, actual return -1.08%, runup -1.90%, drawdown -1.90%US.STX Median projection 0.45, actual return +5.05%, runup +4.60%, drawdown -4.60%US.WDC Median projection 0.55, actual return +14.18%, runup +13.63%, drawdown -13.63%US.CCL Median projection -0.34, actual return +2.49%, runup +2.83%, drawdown -2.83%US.RCL Median projection -0.17, actual return -0.37%, runup -0.20%, drawdown -0.20%US.WDC Median projection 0.29, actual return +7.57%, runup +7.28%, drawdown -7.28%US.STX Median projection 0.54, actual return +6.08%, runup +5.54%, drawdown -5.54%US.GE Median projection -0.22, actual return +0.96%, runup +1.18%, drawdown -1.18%US.MRNA Median projection 0.06, actual return +7.12%, runup +7.06%, drawdown -7.06%US.HOOD Median projection 0.13, actual return -1.85%, runup -1.98%, drawdown -1.98%US.GE Median projection -0.32, actual return -0.16%, runup +0.16%, drawdown -0.16%US.HWM Median projection -0.24, actual return -2.86%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.MRNA Median projection -0.15, actual return -1.29%, runup -1.14%, drawdown -1.14%US.WDC Median projection 0.49, actual return -13.72%, runup -14.21%, drawdown -14.21%US.MRNA Median projection 0.05, actual return -5.53%, runup -5.58%, drawdown -5.58%US.Q Median projection 0.27, actual return -6.07%, runup -6.34%, drawdown -6.34%US.GWW Median projection -0.09, actual return -1.67%, runup -1.58%, drawdown -1.58%US.GLW Median projection 0.52, actual return +8.66%, runup +8.14%, drawdown -8.14%US.CAT Median projection -0.08, actual return +3.40%, runup +3.48%, drawdown -3.48%US.FIX Median projection 0.06, actual return -2.37%, runup -2.43%, drawdown -2.43%US.Q Median projection 0.36, actual return -4.64%, runup -5.00%, drawdown -5.00%US.TRV Median projection -0.08, actual return +3.28%, runup +3.36%, drawdown -3.36%US.USB Median projection 0.23, actual return +1.43%, runup +1.20%, drawdown -1.20%US.ABBV Median projection -0.01, actual return +7.92%, runup +7.93%, drawdown -7.93%US.AEP Median projection 0.05, actual return +3.70%, runup +3.65%, drawdown -3.65%US.MTD Median projection -0.02, actual return +4.62%, runup +4.64%, drawdown -4.64%US.PHM Median projection -0.09, actual return +1.64%, runup +1.73%, drawdown -1.73%US.EXPE Median projection 0.27, actual return +1.19%, runup +0.92%, drawdown -0.92%US.UAL Median projection 0.24, actual return +3.56%, runup +3.32%, drawdown -3.32%US.GLW Median projection 0.51, actual return +12.03%, runup +11.52%, drawdown -11.52%US.MTD Median projection -0.16, actual return +2.74%, runup +2.90%, drawdown -2.90%US.ABBV Median projection -0.14, actual return +3.50%, runup +3.64%, drawdown -3.64%US.TECH Median projection 0.25, actual return -0.07%, runup -0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.UBER Median projection -0.09, actual return -4.65%, runup -4.56%, drawdown -4.56%US.PGR Median projection -0.16, actual return +0.43%, runup +0.59%, drawdown -0.59%US.AEE Median projection -0.11, actual return -5.18%, runup -5.07%, drawdown -5.07%US.ABBV Median projection -0.2, actual return -0.90%, runup -0.70%, drawdown -0.70%US.LH Median projection 0.06, actual return +2.65%, runup +2.59%, drawdown -2.59%US.GLW Median projection 0.49, actual return -23.04%, runup -23.53%, drawdown -23.53%US.TPL Median projection 0.22, actual return -3.04%, runup -3.26%, drawdown -3.26%US.PANW Median projection 0.41, actual return +4.84%, runup +4.43%, drawdown -4.43%US.ZBRA Median projection 0.61, actual return +2.67%, runup +2.06%, drawdown -2.06%US.LRCX Median projection 0.61, actual return -19.18%, runup -19.79%, drawdown -19.79%US.APH Median projection 0.49, actual return -5.39%, runup -5.88%, drawdown -5.88%US.FFIV Median projection 0.26, actual return +0.74%, runup +0.48%, drawdown -0.48%US.GIS Median projection -0.06, actual return -1.77%, runup -1.71%, drawdown -1.71%US.BRO Median projection 0.16, actual return +2.84%, runup +2.68%, drawdown -2.68%US.MKC Median projection 0.05, actual return -1.30%, runup -1.35%, drawdown -1.35%US.FDS Median projection 0.07, actual return +5.19%, runup +5.12%, drawdown -5.12%US.AJG Median projection -0.11, actual return +1.65%, runup +1.76%, drawdown -1.76%US.WTW Median projection -0.06, actual return +2.22%, runup +2.28%, drawdown -2.28%US.PGR Median projection 0.05, actual return +0.29%, runup +0.24%, drawdown -0.24%US.GPC Median projection 0.02, actual return -5.91%, runup -5.93%, drawdown -5.93%US.ISRG Median projection 0.12, actual return -4.92%, runup -5.04%, drawdown -5.04%US.SCHW Median projection -0.02, actual return +1.28%, runup +1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.WTW Median projection 0.32, actual return +0.51%, runup +0.19%, drawdown -0.19%US.RMD Median projection -0.04, actual return -4.56%, runup -4.52%, drawdown -4.52%US.SCHW Median projection 0.51, actual return +1.17%, runup +0.66%, drawdown -0.66%US.WTW Median projection 0.56, actual return -1.45%, runup -2.01%, drawdown -2.01%US.PGR Median projection 0.47, actual return -1.57%, runup -2.04%, drawdown -2.04%US.GILD Median projection 0.15, actual return -4.79%, runup -4.94%, drawdown -4.94%US.OXY Median projection -0.11, actual return +2.28%, runup +2.39%, drawdown -2.39%US.ANET Median projection -0.17, actual return +0.06%, runup +0.23%, drawdown -0.23%US.VLO Median projection -0.12, actual return +4.56%, runup +4.68%, drawdown -4.68%US.MPC Median projection -0.04, actual return +5.77%, runup +5.81%, drawdown -5.81%US.AAPL Median projection -0.68, actual return -0.43%, runup +0.25%, drawdown -0.25%US.AES Median projection -0.45, actual return +0.48%, runup +0.93%, drawdown -0.93%US.MPC Median projection -0.28, actual return +7.09%, runup +7.37%, drawdown -7.37%US.ANET Median projection -0.55, actual return -1.15%, runup -0.60%, drawdown -0.60%US.CDW Median projection -0.7, actual return -9.37%, runup -8.67%, drawdown -8.67%US.META Median projection -0.36, actual return +1.81%, runup +2.17%, drawdown -2.17%US.BBY Median projection -0.15, actual return +3.10%, runup +3.25%, drawdown -3.25%US.VLO Median projection -1.08, actual return +4.26%, runup +5.34%, drawdown -5.34%US.DG Median projection -0.25, actual return +3.01%, runup +3.26%, drawdown -3.26%US.PSX Median projection -0.27, actual return +1.53%, runup +1.80%, drawdown -1.80%US.WRB Median projection 0.05, actual return -5.34%, runup -5.39%, drawdown -5.39%US.VLO Median projection -0.63, actual return +1.51%, runup +2.14%, drawdown -2.14%US.BNY Median projection -0.18, actual return -3.34%, runup -3.16%, drawdown -3.16%US.MTB Median projection -0.14, actual return +0.37%, runup +0.51%, drawdown -0.51%US.PYPL Median projection -0.14, actual return +2.34%, runup +2.48%, drawdown -2.48%US.XYZ Median projection -0.17, actual return -3.08%, runup -2.91%, drawdown -2.91%US.JBHT Median projection 0.05, actual return -1.73%, runup -1.78%, drawdown -1.78%US.PLD Median projection -0.19, actual return -0.08%, runup +0.11%, drawdown -0.11%US.CFG Median projection -0.07, actual return -3.23%, runup -3.16%, drawdown -3.16%US.CTAS Median projection -0.1, actual return -2.83%, runup -2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.PLD Median projection -0.19, actual return -1.60%, runup -1.41%, drawdown -1.41%US.GPN Median projection 0.29, actual return -5.48%, runup -5.77%, drawdown -5.77%US.TRV Median projection 0.36, actual return +2.14%, runup +1.78%, drawdown -1.78%US.MPC Median projection -0.38, actual return -0.96%, runup -0.58%, drawdown -0.58%US.MMM Median projection -0.25, actual return +1.09%, runup +1.34%, drawdown -1.34%US.EOG Median projection -0.15, actual return +2.06%, runup +2.21%, drawdown -2.21%US.HAS Median projection -0.26, actual return +0.01%, runup +0.27%, drawdown -0.27%US.EFX Median projection -0.18, actual return -0.27%, runup -0.09%, drawdown -0.09%US.WAB Median projection -0.25, actual return +3.76%, runup +4.01%, drawdown -4.01%US.TRV Median projection -0.33, actual return +4.91%, runup +5.24%, drawdown -5.24%US.T Median projection -0.36, actual return +5.99%, runup +6.35%, drawdown -6.35%US.PCAR Median projection -0.28, actual return +1.78%, runup +2.06%, drawdown -2.06%US.CSX Median projection -0.24, actual return -3.73%, runup -3.49%, drawdown -3.49%US.RTX Median projection -0.25, actual return +4.50%, runup +4.75%, drawdown -4.75%US.NSC Median projection -0.25, actual return -2.79%, runup -2.54%, drawdown -2.54%US.DGX Median projection -0.26, actual return +3.53%, runup +3.79%, drawdown -3.79%US.WAB Median projection -0.28, actual return -3.55%, runup -3.27%, drawdown -3.27%US.SLB Median projection -0.25, actual return -6.60%, runup -6.35%, drawdown -6.35%US.PKG Median projection -0.3, actual return -1.95%, runup -1.65%, drawdown -1.65%US.IP Median projection -0.25, actual return +1.14%, runup +1.39%, drawdown -1.39% Bucket avg Median projection -0.2, actual return +0.63%, n 72Bucket avg Median projection 0.3, actual return -0.53%, n 48 Corr -0.08 R² 0.6% n 120 Median projection return Actual return

X = Median projection return. Y = actual return. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +0.17%

Best setting 3D · n=500: median projection vs forecast error

-2 0 2 -24.00% 0.00% +14.00% US.SJM Median projection -0.13, forecast error +3.78%, runup +3.78%, drawdown -3.78%US.CNC Median projection -0.12, forecast error -1.42%, runup -1.42%, drawdown -1.42%US.KIM Median projection -0.21, forecast error +3.07%, runup +3.07%, drawdown -3.07%US.COO Median projection -0.02, forecast error -1.06%, runup -1.06%, drawdown -1.06%US.USB Median projection 0.04, forecast error +1.69%, runup +1.69%, drawdown -1.69%US.CAH Median projection -0.31, forecast error +4.98%, runup +4.98%, drawdown -4.98%US.SJM Median projection -0.13, forecast error -0.82%, runup -0.82%, drawdown -0.82%US.CASY Median projection 0.27, forecast error -4.99%, runup -4.99%, drawdown -4.99%US.GD Median projection -0.26, forecast error +1.72%, runup +1.72%, drawdown -1.72%US.SNDK Median projection 0.71, forecast error +5.14%, runup +5.14%, drawdown -5.14%US.KIM Median projection 0, forecast error -2.52%, runup -2.52%, drawdown -2.52%US.LRCX Median projection 0.68, forecast error +1.20%, runup +1.20%, drawdown -1.20%US.CCL Median projection -0.53, forecast error +3.03%, runup +3.03%, drawdown -3.03%US.WSM Median projection -0.36, forecast error -0.71%, runup -0.71%, drawdown -0.71%US.JBL Median projection 1.02, forecast error -3.58%, runup -3.58%, drawdown -3.58%US.SNDK Median projection 0.82, forecast error -1.90%, runup -1.90%, drawdown -1.90%US.STX Median projection 0.45, forecast error +4.60%, runup +4.60%, drawdown -4.60%US.WDC Median projection 0.55, forecast error +13.63%, runup +13.63%, drawdown -13.63%US.CCL Median projection -0.34, forecast error +2.83%, runup +2.83%, drawdown -2.83%US.RCL Median projection -0.17, forecast error -0.20%, runup -0.20%, drawdown -0.20%US.WDC Median projection 0.29, forecast error +7.28%, runup +7.28%, drawdown -7.28%US.STX Median projection 0.54, forecast error +5.54%, runup +5.54%, drawdown -5.54%US.GE Median projection -0.22, forecast error +1.18%, runup +1.18%, drawdown -1.18%US.MRNA Median projection 0.06, forecast error +7.06%, runup +7.06%, drawdown -7.06%US.HOOD Median projection 0.13, forecast error -1.98%, runup -1.98%, drawdown -1.98%US.GE Median projection -0.32, forecast error +0.16%, runup +0.16%, drawdown -0.16%US.HWM Median projection -0.24, forecast error -2.62%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.MRNA Median projection -0.15, forecast error -1.14%, runup -1.14%, drawdown -1.14%US.WDC Median projection 0.49, forecast error -14.21%, runup -14.21%, drawdown -14.21%US.MRNA Median projection 0.05, forecast error -5.58%, runup -5.58%, drawdown -5.58%US.Q Median projection 0.27, forecast error -6.34%, runup -6.34%, drawdown -6.34%US.GWW Median projection -0.09, forecast error -1.58%, runup -1.58%, drawdown -1.58%US.GLW Median projection 0.52, forecast error +8.14%, runup +8.14%, drawdown -8.14%US.CAT Median projection -0.08, forecast error +3.48%, runup +3.48%, drawdown -3.48%US.FIX Median projection 0.06, forecast error -2.43%, runup -2.43%, drawdown -2.43%US.Q Median projection 0.36, forecast error -5.00%, runup -5.00%, drawdown -5.00%US.TRV Median projection -0.08, forecast error +3.36%, runup +3.36%, drawdown -3.36%US.USB Median projection 0.23, forecast error +1.20%, runup +1.20%, drawdown -1.20%US.ABBV Median projection -0.01, forecast error +7.93%, runup +7.93%, drawdown -7.93%US.AEP Median projection 0.05, forecast error +3.65%, runup +3.65%, drawdown -3.65%US.MTD Median projection -0.02, forecast error +4.64%, runup +4.64%, drawdown -4.64%US.PHM Median projection -0.09, forecast error +1.73%, runup +1.73%, drawdown -1.73%US.EXPE Median projection 0.27, forecast error +0.92%, runup +0.92%, drawdown -0.92%US.UAL Median projection 0.24, forecast error +3.32%, runup +3.32%, drawdown -3.32%US.GLW Median projection 0.51, forecast error +11.52%, runup +11.52%, drawdown -11.52%US.MTD Median projection -0.16, forecast error +2.90%, runup +2.90%, drawdown -2.90%US.ABBV Median projection -0.14, forecast error +3.64%, runup +3.64%, drawdown -3.64%US.TECH Median projection 0.25, forecast error -0.32%, runup -0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.UBER Median projection -0.09, forecast error -4.56%, runup -4.56%, drawdown -4.56%US.PGR Median projection -0.16, forecast error +0.59%, runup +0.59%, drawdown -0.59%US.AEE Median projection -0.11, forecast error -5.07%, runup -5.07%, drawdown -5.07%US.ABBV Median projection -0.2, forecast error -0.70%, runup -0.70%, drawdown -0.70%US.LH Median projection 0.06, forecast error +2.59%, runup +2.59%, drawdown -2.59%US.GLW Median projection 0.49, forecast error -23.53%, runup -23.53%, drawdown -23.53%US.TPL Median projection 0.22, forecast error -3.26%, runup -3.26%, drawdown -3.26%US.PANW Median projection 0.41, forecast error +4.43%, runup +4.43%, drawdown -4.43%US.ZBRA Median projection 0.61, forecast error +2.06%, runup +2.06%, drawdown -2.06%US.LRCX Median projection 0.61, forecast error -19.79%, runup -19.79%, drawdown -19.79%US.APH Median projection 0.49, forecast error -5.88%, runup -5.88%, drawdown -5.88%US.FFIV Median projection 0.26, forecast error +0.48%, runup +0.48%, drawdown -0.48%US.GIS Median projection -0.06, forecast error -1.71%, runup -1.71%, drawdown -1.71%US.BRO Median projection 0.16, forecast error +2.68%, runup +2.68%, drawdown -2.68%US.MKC Median projection 0.05, forecast error -1.35%, runup -1.35%, drawdown -1.35%US.FDS Median projection 0.07, forecast error +5.12%, runup +5.12%, drawdown -5.12%US.AJG Median projection -0.11, forecast error +1.76%, runup +1.76%, drawdown -1.76%US.WTW Median projection -0.06, forecast error +2.28%, runup +2.28%, drawdown -2.28%US.PGR Median projection 0.05, forecast error +0.24%, runup +0.24%, drawdown -0.24%US.GPC Median projection 0.02, forecast error -5.93%, runup -5.93%, drawdown -5.93%US.ISRG Median projection 0.12, forecast error -5.04%, runup -5.04%, drawdown -5.04%US.SCHW Median projection -0.02, forecast error +1.30%, runup +1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.WTW Median projection 0.32, forecast error +0.19%, runup +0.19%, drawdown -0.19%US.RMD Median projection -0.04, forecast error -4.52%, runup -4.52%, drawdown -4.52%US.SCHW Median projection 0.51, forecast error +0.66%, runup +0.66%, drawdown -0.66%US.WTW Median projection 0.56, forecast error -2.01%, runup -2.01%, drawdown -2.01%US.PGR Median projection 0.47, forecast error -2.04%, runup -2.04%, drawdown -2.04%US.GILD Median projection 0.15, forecast error -4.94%, runup -4.94%, drawdown -4.94%US.OXY Median projection -0.11, forecast error +2.39%, runup +2.39%, drawdown -2.39%US.ANET Median projection -0.17, forecast error +0.23%, runup +0.23%, drawdown -0.23%US.VLO Median projection -0.12, forecast error +4.68%, runup +4.68%, drawdown -4.68%US.MPC Median projection -0.04, forecast error +5.81%, runup +5.81%, drawdown -5.81%US.AAPL Median projection -0.68, forecast error +0.25%, runup +0.25%, drawdown -0.25%US.AES Median projection -0.45, forecast error +0.93%, runup +0.93%, drawdown -0.93%US.MPC Median projection -0.28, forecast error +7.37%, runup +7.37%, drawdown -7.37%US.ANET Median projection -0.55, forecast error -0.60%, runup -0.60%, drawdown -0.60%US.CDW Median projection -0.7, forecast error -8.67%, runup -8.67%, drawdown -8.67%US.META Median projection -0.36, forecast error +2.17%, runup +2.17%, drawdown -2.17%US.BBY Median projection -0.15, forecast error +3.25%, runup +3.25%, drawdown -3.25%US.VLO Median projection -1.08, forecast error +5.34%, runup +5.34%, drawdown -5.34%US.DG Median projection -0.25, forecast error +3.26%, runup +3.26%, drawdown -3.26%US.PSX Median projection -0.27, forecast error +1.80%, runup +1.80%, drawdown -1.80%US.WRB Median projection 0.05, forecast error -5.39%, runup -5.39%, drawdown -5.39%US.VLO Median projection -0.63, forecast error +2.14%, runup +2.14%, drawdown -2.14%US.BNY Median projection -0.18, forecast error -3.16%, runup -3.16%, drawdown -3.16%US.MTB Median projection -0.14, forecast error +0.51%, runup +0.51%, drawdown -0.51%US.PYPL Median projection -0.14, forecast error +2.48%, runup +2.48%, drawdown -2.48%US.XYZ Median projection -0.17, forecast error -2.91%, runup -2.91%, drawdown -2.91%US.JBHT Median projection 0.05, forecast error -1.78%, runup -1.78%, drawdown -1.78%US.PLD Median projection -0.19, forecast error +0.11%, runup +0.11%, drawdown -0.11%US.CFG Median projection -0.07, forecast error -3.16%, runup -3.16%, drawdown -3.16%US.CTAS Median projection -0.1, forecast error -2.73%, runup -2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.PLD Median projection -0.19, forecast error -1.41%, runup -1.41%, drawdown -1.41%US.GPN Median projection 0.29, forecast error -5.77%, runup -5.77%, drawdown -5.77%US.TRV Median projection 0.36, forecast error +1.78%, runup +1.78%, drawdown -1.78%US.MPC Median projection -0.38, forecast error -0.58%, runup -0.58%, drawdown -0.58%US.MMM Median projection -0.25, forecast error +1.34%, runup +1.34%, drawdown -1.34%US.EOG Median projection -0.15, forecast error +2.21%, runup +2.21%, drawdown -2.21%US.HAS Median projection -0.26, forecast error +0.27%, runup +0.27%, drawdown -0.27%US.EFX Median projection -0.18, forecast error -0.09%, runup -0.09%, drawdown -0.09%US.WAB Median projection -0.25, forecast error +4.01%, runup +4.01%, drawdown -4.01%US.TRV Median projection -0.33, forecast error +5.24%, runup +5.24%, drawdown -5.24%US.T Median projection -0.36, forecast error +6.35%, runup +6.35%, drawdown -6.35%US.PCAR Median projection -0.28, forecast error +2.06%, runup +2.06%, drawdown -2.06%US.CSX Median projection -0.24, forecast error -3.49%, runup -3.49%, drawdown -3.49%US.RTX Median projection -0.25, forecast error +4.75%, runup +4.75%, drawdown -4.75%US.NSC Median projection -0.25, forecast error -2.54%, runup -2.54%, drawdown -2.54%US.DGX Median projection -0.26, forecast error +3.79%, runup +3.79%, drawdown -3.79%US.WAB Median projection -0.28, forecast error -3.27%, runup -3.27%, drawdown -3.27%US.SLB Median projection -0.25, forecast error -6.35%, runup -6.35%, drawdown -6.35%US.PKG Median projection -0.3, forecast error -1.65%, runup -1.65%, drawdown -1.65%US.IP Median projection -0.25, forecast error +1.39%, runup +1.39%, drawdown -1.39% Bucket avg Median projection -0.2, forecast error +0.86%, n 72Bucket avg Median projection 0.3, forecast error -0.84%, n 48 Corr -0.14 R² 2.1% n 120 Median projection return Actual - median

X = Median projection return. Y = actual - median. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +0.18%

DOE ranking

Ranked by a composite DOE score: lower median/mean absolute error, lower bias, enough anchors, and better IQR coverage.

Rank Horizon n Median abs Mean abs Bias Inside P25/P75 Anchors DOE score
#1 3D 500 2.71% 3.55% +0.18% 49.2% 120 2.502
#2 3D 320 2.72% 3.55% +0.18% 47.5% 120 2.511
#3 3D 40 2.63% 3.65% +0.20% 43.3% 120 2.514
#4 3D 80 2.76% 3.56% +0.14% 47.5% 120 2.528
#5 3D 160 2.76% 3.57% +0.13% 46.7% 120 2.532
#6 3D 120 2.8% 3.58% +0.13% 50% 120 2.547
#7 3D 240 2.83% 3.54% +0.14% 46.7% 120 2.558
#8 5D 320 3.58% 4.73% -0.05% 51.7% 116 3.324
#9 5D 240 3.62% 4.73% -0.02% 52.6% 116 3.337
#10 5D 500 3.6% 4.77% -0.10% 48.3% 116 3.364
#11 5D 120 3.74% 4.74% +0.06% 52.6% 116 3.407
#12 5D 40 3.44% 5.12% +0.43% 44.8% 116 3.464
#13 5D 160 3.82% 4.83% -0.03% 50% 116 3.48
#14 5D 80 3.85% 4.93% +0.19% 48.3% 116 3.558
#15 10D 40 3.98% 6.82% -0.78% 50% 100 4.369
#16 10D 500 4.65% 6.71% -1.01% 49% 100 4.703
#17 10D 320 4.68% 6.75% -1.04% 51% 100 4.731
#18 10D 240 4.88% 6.81% -1.06% 54% 100 4.847
#19 10D 160 4.95% 6.86% -1.07% 56% 100 4.897
#20 10D 80 4.97% 6.94% -1.04% 52% 100 4.94
#21 10D 120 5.29% 6.88% -1.09% 53% 100 5.084
#22 15D 500 5.67% 9.03% -5.28% 58.3% 84 6.642
#23 15D 320 5.66% 9.45% -5.71% 54.8% 84 6.857
#24 15D 240 5.73% 9.83% -6.00% 51.2% 84 7.078
#25 15D 120 5.51% 10.24% -6.31% 48.8% 84 7.163
#26 15D 160 5.83% 10.15% -6.28% 48.8% 84 7.288
#27 15D 80 5.75% 10.43% -6.46% 46.4% 84 7.379
#28 15D 40 6.37% 10.75% -6.37% 50% 84 7.778
#29 20D 500 8.05% 12.13% -8.65% 48.4% 64 9.447
#30 20D 320 8.17% 12.81% -9.30% 43.8% 64 9.854