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Rolling projection DOE

Find the projection setup whose median is closest to actual outcomes.

Replay completed anchors and rank horizon × sample-size settings by projection error.

Snapshot 2026-06-03
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-06-03
Window 2026-04-17 → 2026-05-29
Anchors 120
Lookback 730D
Confidence low
Computed at 2026年7月29日 下午6:17 HKT
Point-in-time Point-in-time safe

Best rolling setting

3D · n=500

DOE results snapshot · Window: 2026-04-17 → 2026-05-29 · anchors: 120 · latest snapshot: 2026-06-03 · computed at: 2026年7月29日 下午6:17 HKT

Median abs error2.47%
Mean abs error4.09%
Bias+0.33%
Inside P25/P7554.2%

DOE setting comparison

Same idea as score-vs-outcome analysis: compare each parameter setting by observed actual-minus-median error over rolling completed anchors. Lower median abs error and lower bias win.

Setting Median abs Bias P25/P75 hit n Read
Setting 3D · n=500
Median abs 2.47%
Bias +0.33%
P25/P75 hit 54.2%
n 120
Rank Best setting
Setting 3D · n=80
Median abs 2.53%
Bias +0.17%
P25/P75 hit 52.5%
n 120
Rank #2 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=120
Median abs 2.64%
Bias +0.19%
P25/P75 hit 55.8%
n 120
Rank #3 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=160
Median abs 2.66%
Bias +0.25%
P25/P75 hit 52.5%
n 120
Rank #4 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=40
Median abs 2.67%
Bias +0.22%
P25/P75 hit 54.2%
n 120
Rank #5 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=320
Median abs 2.67%
Bias +0.29%
P25/P75 hit 55%
n 120
Rank #6 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=240
Median abs 2.71%
Bias +0.26%
P25/P75 hit 54.2%
n 120
Rank #7 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=80
Median abs 3.81%
Bias +2.09%
P25/P75 hit 50%
n 112
Rank #8 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=120
Median abs 3.94%
Bias +2.14%
P25/P75 hit 51.8%
n 112
Rank #9 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=40
Median abs 3.95%
Bias +2.27%
P25/P75 hit 47.3%
n 112
Rank #10 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=160
Median abs 4.09%
Bias +2.25%
P25/P75 hit 50.9%
n 112
Rank #11 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=240
Median abs 4.26%
Bias +2.27%
P25/P75 hit 53.6%
n 112
Rank #12 Candidate

Best setting 3D · n=500: median projection vs actual return

0 2 4 -14.00% 0.00% +26.00% US.A Median projection 0.35, actual return -1.15%, runup -1.50%, drawdown -1.50%US.JBL Median projection 0.89, actual return +4.57%, runup +3.68%, drawdown -3.68%US.ADI Median projection 0.61, actual return +2.68%, runup +2.07%, drawdown -2.07%US.EXPE Median projection 0.62, actual return -0.47%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.ADI Median projection 0.73, actual return +5.99%, runup +5.26%, drawdown -5.26%US.JBL Median projection 0.87, actual return +2.50%, runup +1.63%, drawdown -1.63%US.STLD Median projection 0.54, actual return +7.50%, runup +6.96%, drawdown -6.96%US.TGT Median projection 0.32, actual return -0.01%, runup -0.33%, drawdown -0.33%US.NTAP Median projection 0.7, actual return -2.76%, runup -3.46%, drawdown -3.46%US.HPQ Median projection 0.95, actual return -6.16%, runup -7.11%, drawdown -7.11%US.STLD Median projection 0.7, actual return +2.99%, runup +2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.NTRS Median projection 0.95, actual return -4.50%, runup -5.45%, drawdown -5.45%US.STLD Median projection 0.41, actual return -1.06%, runup -1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.ISRG Median projection 0.32, actual return -2.61%, runup -2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.GEV Median projection 0.54, actual return -0.65%, runup -1.19%, drawdown -1.19%US.MAS Median projection 0.56, actual return +0.38%, runup -0.18%, drawdown -0.18%US.CSX Median projection 0.37, actual return -2.06%, runup -2.43%, drawdown -2.43%US.DOV Median projection 0.23, actual return -1.76%, runup -1.99%, drawdown -1.99%US.WST Median projection 0.22, actual return -5.67%, runup -5.89%, drawdown -5.89%US.TXN Median projection 0.6, actual return -6.10%, runup -6.70%, drawdown -6.70%US.QCOM Median projection 0.81, actual return +4.80%, runup +3.99%, drawdown -3.99%US.BKR Median projection 0.59, actual return -0.19%, runup -0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.AMD Median projection 1.15, actual return -3.08%, runup -4.23%, drawdown -4.23%US.SNPS Median projection 1.06, actual return -3.91%, runup -4.97%, drawdown -4.97%US.NVDA Median projection 0.74, actual return -7.87%, runup -8.61%, drawdown -8.61%US.ELV Median projection 0.33, actual return +5.70%, runup +5.37%, drawdown -5.37%US.SNDK Median projection 1.15, actual return +2.46%, runup +1.31%, drawdown -1.31%US.CNC Median projection 0.24, actual return +23.43%, runup +23.19%, drawdown -23.19%US.ESS Median projection 0.14, actual return -1.69%, runup -1.83%, drawdown -1.83%US.CNC Median projection 0.41, actual return +7.61%, runup +7.20%, drawdown -7.20%US.EQR Median projection 0.14, actual return +0.03%, runup -0.11%, drawdown -0.11%US.AVB Median projection 0.03, actual return -0.03%, runup -0.06%, drawdown -0.06%US.GNRC Median projection 0.31, actual return +1.64%, runup +1.33%, drawdown -1.33%US.NXPI Median projection 0.67, actual return +0.52%, runup -0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.CNC Median projection 0.41, actual return -0.78%, runup -1.19%, drawdown -1.19%US.EQR Median projection 0.14, actual return -0.29%, runup -0.43%, drawdown -0.43%US.QCOM Median projection 0.59, actual return +3.88%, runup +3.29%, drawdown -3.29%US.PWR Median projection 0.14, actual return +6.02%, runup +5.88%, drawdown -5.88%US.CAT Median projection 0.16, actual return +1.63%, runup +1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.GOOGL Median projection 0.37, actual return +0.94%, runup +0.57%, drawdown -0.57%US.PWR Median projection 0.14, actual return +5.80%, runup +5.66%, drawdown -5.66%US.STX Median projection 0.86, actual return +8.18%, runup +7.32%, drawdown -7.32%US.SNDK Median projection 0.72, actual return +18.79%, runup +18.07%, drawdown -18.07%US.FRT Median projection 0.28, actual return +1.26%, runup +0.98%, drawdown -0.98%US.CBOE Median projection 0.56, actual return -0.08%, runup -0.64%, drawdown -0.64%US.ADM Median projection 0.44, actual return +1.65%, runup +1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.PWR Median projection 0.22, actual return -0.87%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.TSN Median projection 0.4, actual return -1.18%, runup -1.58%, drawdown -1.58%US.J Median projection 0.2, actual return -13.27%, runup -13.47%, drawdown -13.47%US.DD Median projection 0.29, actual return +1.06%, runup +0.77%, drawdown -0.77%US.ADM Median projection 0.34, actual return -1.93%, runup -2.27%, drawdown -2.27%US.SWKS Median projection 0.94, actual return -7.97%, runup -8.91%, drawdown -8.91%US.DVA Median projection 0.36, actual return +2.60%, runup +2.24%, drawdown -2.24%US.JBL Median projection 0.71, actual return -1.91%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.SMCI Median projection 1.09, actual return -3.29%, runup -4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.RVTY Median projection 0.37, actual return -0.14%, runup -0.51%, drawdown -0.51%US.VTRS Median projection 0.34, actual return -1.27%, runup -1.61%, drawdown -1.61%US.APP Median projection 1.21, actual return -1.64%, runup -2.85%, drawdown -2.85%US.FTNT Median projection 1.19, actual return +5.46%, runup +4.27%, drawdown -4.27%US.HWM Median projection 0.24, actual return -1.02%, runup -1.26%, drawdown -1.26%US.FTNT Median projection 1.27, actual return +3.17%, runup +1.90%, drawdown -1.90%US.GEN Median projection 1.27, actual return +2.69%, runup +1.42%, drawdown -1.42%US.PANW Median projection 1.3, actual return +9.58%, runup +8.28%, drawdown -8.28%US.MNST Median projection 0.51, actual return -0.42%, runup -0.93%, drawdown -0.93%US.FOXA Median projection 0.53, actual return -3.54%, runup -4.07%, drawdown -4.07%US.FSLR Median projection 1.63, actual return -0.71%, runup -2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.FOX Median projection 0.56, actual return -4.22%, runup -4.78%, drawdown -4.78%US.COHR Median projection 1.58, actual return +6.65%, runup +5.07%, drawdown -5.07%US.Q Median projection 1.58, actual return -6.61%, runup -8.19%, drawdown -8.19%US.PM Median projection 0.49, actual return +1.43%, runup +0.94%, drawdown -0.94%US.CVS Median projection 0.46, actual return +0.78%, runup +0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.PANW Median projection 1.58, actual return +12.63%, runup +11.05%, drawdown -11.05%US.CSCO Median projection 1.01, actual return +16.70%, runup +15.69%, drawdown -15.69%US.PANW Median projection 1.58, actual return +8.67%, runup +7.09%, drawdown -7.09%US.F Median projection 0.43, actual return -3.98%, runup -4.41%, drawdown -4.41%US.GEN Median projection 1.58, actual return +4.51%, runup +2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.HPE Median projection 1.57, actual return -4.42%, runup -5.99%, drawdown -5.99%US.WMB Median projection 0.48, actual return +2.20%, runup +1.72%, drawdown -1.72%US.F Median projection 0.61, actual return -9.81%, runup -10.42%, drawdown -10.42%US.CSCO Median projection 1.08, actual return -0.13%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.JBHT Median projection 0.27, actual return +0.26%, runup -0.01%, drawdown -0.01%US.CRWD Median projection 2.17, actual return +9.43%, runup +7.26%, drawdown -7.26%US.PANW Median projection 1.73, actual return +1.58%, runup -0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.XOM Median projection 0.41, actual return -1.04%, runup -1.45%, drawdown -1.45%US.UNP Median projection 0.22, actual return -3.52%, runup -3.74%, drawdown -3.74%US.COST Median projection 0.53, actual return -2.42%, runup -2.95%, drawdown -2.95%US.D Median projection 0.49, actual return +1.08%, runup +0.59%, drawdown -0.59%US.ADP Median projection 0.27, actual return -1.28%, runup -1.55%, drawdown -1.55%US.KR Median projection 0.27, actual return -4.75%, runup -5.02%, drawdown -5.02%US.COST Median projection 0.47, actual return -6.04%, runup -6.51%, drawdown -6.51%US.DXCM Median projection 0.59, actual return +7.69%, runup +7.10%, drawdown -7.10%US.WMB Median projection 0.17, actual return -1.17%, runup -1.34%, drawdown -1.34%US.DXCM Median projection 0.56, actual return +0.80%, runup +0.24%, drawdown -0.24%US.GS Median projection 0.27, actual return +1.26%, runup +0.99%, drawdown -0.99%US.CRWD Median projection 2.17, actual return +3.30%, runup +1.13%, drawdown -1.13%US.GEN Median projection 2.2, actual return -0.96%, runup -3.16%, drawdown -3.16%US.MET Median projection 0.27, actual return -1.30%, runup -1.57%, drawdown -1.57%US.CPRT Median projection 0.03, actual return -4.51%, runup -4.54%, drawdown -4.54%US.IBM Median projection 0.96, actual return +0.88%, runup -0.08%, drawdown -0.08%US.FSLR Median projection 1.65, actual return +9.96%, runup +8.31%, drawdown -8.31%US.NTAP Median projection 1.58, actual return +2.18%, runup +0.60%, drawdown -0.60%US.HPQ Median projection 1.59, actual return -0.91%, runup -2.50%, drawdown -2.50%US.DELL Median projection 1.58, actual return +7.41%, runup +5.83%, drawdown -5.83%US.HPE Median projection 1.58, actual return +1.68%, runup +0.10%, drawdown -0.10%US.MU Median projection 1.58, actual return +8.39%, runup +6.81%, drawdown -6.81%US.JBL Median projection 2.44, actual return -4.13%, runup -6.57%, drawdown -6.57%US.MRVL Median projection 1.61, actual return -1.57%, runup -3.18%, drawdown -3.18%US.LRCX Median projection 1.17, actual return -1.39%, runup -2.56%, drawdown -2.56%US.STLD Median projection 0.36, actual return +1.31%, runup +0.95%, drawdown -0.95%US.APP Median projection 1.58, actual return +8.08%, runup +6.50%, drawdown -6.50%US.NTAP Median projection 1.58, actual return +25.89%, runup +24.31%, drawdown -24.31%US.MGM Median projection 0.35, actual return +20.83%, runup +20.48%, drawdown -20.48%US.HRL Median projection 0.41, actual return -1.02%, runup -1.43%, drawdown -1.43%US.DLTR Median projection 0.62, actual return -3.19%, runup -3.81%, drawdown -3.81%US.A Median projection 0.7, actual return -0.24%, runup -0.94%, drawdown -0.94%US.FSLR Median projection 1.61, actual return +2.52%, runup +0.91%, drawdown -0.91%US.HOOD Median projection 0.83, actual return -12.14%, runup -12.97%, drawdown -12.97%US.ORCL Median projection 1.07, actual return +2.02%, runup +0.95%, drawdown -0.95%US.WDAY Median projection 1.59, actual return +0.49%, runup -1.10%, drawdown -1.10%US.PLTR Median projection 1.61, actual return -9.16%, runup -10.77%, drawdown -10.77% Bucket avg Median projection 0.7, actual return +1.09%, n 116Bucket avg Median projection 2.2, actual return +1.91%, n 4 Corr +0.17 R² 3.0% n 120 Median projection return Actual return

X = Median projection return. Y = actual return. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +1.12%

Best setting 3D · n=500: median projection vs forecast error

0 2 4 -14.00% 0.00% +26.00% US.A Median projection 0.35, forecast error -1.50%, runup -1.50%, drawdown -1.50%US.JBL Median projection 0.89, forecast error +3.68%, runup +3.68%, drawdown -3.68%US.ADI Median projection 0.61, forecast error +2.07%, runup +2.07%, drawdown -2.07%US.EXPE Median projection 0.62, forecast error -1.09%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.ADI Median projection 0.73, forecast error +5.26%, runup +5.26%, drawdown -5.26%US.JBL Median projection 0.87, forecast error +1.63%, runup +1.63%, drawdown -1.63%US.STLD Median projection 0.54, forecast error +6.96%, runup +6.96%, drawdown -6.96%US.TGT Median projection 0.32, forecast error -0.33%, runup -0.33%, drawdown -0.33%US.NTAP Median projection 0.7, forecast error -3.46%, runup -3.46%, drawdown -3.46%US.HPQ Median projection 0.95, forecast error -7.11%, runup -7.11%, drawdown -7.11%US.STLD Median projection 0.7, forecast error +2.29%, runup +2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.NTRS Median projection 0.95, forecast error -5.45%, runup -5.45%, drawdown -5.45%US.STLD Median projection 0.41, forecast error -1.47%, runup -1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.ISRG Median projection 0.32, forecast error -2.93%, runup -2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.GEV Median projection 0.54, forecast error -1.19%, runup -1.19%, drawdown -1.19%US.MAS Median projection 0.56, forecast error -0.18%, runup -0.18%, drawdown -0.18%US.CSX Median projection 0.37, forecast error -2.43%, runup -2.43%, drawdown -2.43%US.DOV Median projection 0.23, forecast error -1.99%, runup -1.99%, drawdown -1.99%US.WST Median projection 0.22, forecast error -5.89%, runup -5.89%, drawdown -5.89%US.TXN Median projection 0.6, forecast error -6.70%, runup -6.70%, drawdown -6.70%US.QCOM Median projection 0.81, forecast error +3.99%, runup +3.99%, drawdown -3.99%US.BKR Median projection 0.59, forecast error -0.78%, runup -0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.AMD Median projection 1.15, forecast error -4.23%, runup -4.23%, drawdown -4.23%US.SNPS Median projection 1.06, forecast error -4.97%, runup -4.97%, drawdown -4.97%US.NVDA Median projection 0.74, forecast error -8.61%, runup -8.61%, drawdown -8.61%US.ELV Median projection 0.33, forecast error +5.37%, runup +5.37%, drawdown -5.37%US.SNDK Median projection 1.15, forecast error +1.31%, runup +1.31%, drawdown -1.31%US.CNC Median projection 0.24, forecast error +23.19%, runup +23.19%, drawdown -23.19%US.ESS Median projection 0.14, forecast error -1.83%, runup -1.83%, drawdown -1.83%US.CNC Median projection 0.41, forecast error +7.20%, runup +7.20%, drawdown -7.20%US.EQR Median projection 0.14, forecast error -0.11%, runup -0.11%, drawdown -0.11%US.AVB Median projection 0.03, forecast error -0.06%, runup -0.06%, drawdown -0.06%US.GNRC Median projection 0.31, forecast error +1.33%, runup +1.33%, drawdown -1.33%US.NXPI Median projection 0.67, forecast error -0.15%, runup -0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.CNC Median projection 0.41, forecast error -1.19%, runup -1.19%, drawdown -1.19%US.EQR Median projection 0.14, forecast error -0.43%, runup -0.43%, drawdown -0.43%US.QCOM Median projection 0.59, forecast error +3.29%, runup +3.29%, drawdown -3.29%US.PWR Median projection 0.14, forecast error +5.88%, runup +5.88%, drawdown -5.88%US.CAT Median projection 0.16, forecast error +1.47%, runup +1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.GOOGL Median projection 0.37, forecast error +0.57%, runup +0.57%, drawdown -0.57%US.PWR Median projection 0.14, forecast error +5.66%, runup +5.66%, drawdown -5.66%US.STX Median projection 0.86, forecast error +7.32%, runup +7.32%, drawdown -7.32%US.SNDK Median projection 0.72, forecast error +18.07%, runup +18.07%, drawdown -18.07%US.FRT Median projection 0.28, forecast error +0.98%, runup +0.98%, drawdown -0.98%US.CBOE Median projection 0.56, forecast error -0.64%, runup -0.64%, drawdown -0.64%US.ADM Median projection 0.44, forecast error +1.21%, runup +1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.PWR Median projection 0.22, forecast error -1.09%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.TSN Median projection 0.4, forecast error -1.58%, runup -1.58%, drawdown -1.58%US.J Median projection 0.2, forecast error -13.47%, runup -13.47%, drawdown -13.47%US.DD Median projection 0.29, forecast error +0.77%, runup +0.77%, drawdown -0.77%US.ADM Median projection 0.34, forecast error -2.27%, runup -2.27%, drawdown -2.27%US.SWKS Median projection 0.94, forecast error -8.91%, runup -8.91%, drawdown -8.91%US.DVA Median projection 0.36, forecast error +2.24%, runup +2.24%, drawdown -2.24%US.JBL Median projection 0.71, forecast error -2.62%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.SMCI Median projection 1.09, forecast error -4.38%, runup -4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.RVTY Median projection 0.37, forecast error -0.51%, runup -0.51%, drawdown -0.51%US.VTRS Median projection 0.34, forecast error -1.61%, runup -1.61%, drawdown -1.61%US.APP Median projection 1.21, forecast error -2.85%, runup -2.85%, drawdown -2.85%US.FTNT Median projection 1.19, forecast error +4.27%, runup +4.27%, drawdown -4.27%US.HWM Median projection 0.24, forecast error -1.26%, runup -1.26%, drawdown -1.26%US.FTNT Median projection 1.27, forecast error +1.90%, runup +1.90%, drawdown -1.90%US.GEN Median projection 1.27, forecast error +1.42%, runup +1.42%, drawdown -1.42%US.PANW Median projection 1.3, forecast error +8.28%, runup +8.28%, drawdown -8.28%US.MNST Median projection 0.51, forecast error -0.93%, runup -0.93%, drawdown -0.93%US.FOXA Median projection 0.53, forecast error -4.07%, runup -4.07%, drawdown -4.07%US.FSLR Median projection 1.63, forecast error -2.34%, runup -2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.FOX Median projection 0.56, forecast error -4.78%, runup -4.78%, drawdown -4.78%US.COHR Median projection 1.58, forecast error +5.07%, runup +5.07%, drawdown -5.07%US.Q Median projection 1.58, forecast error -8.19%, runup -8.19%, drawdown -8.19%US.PM Median projection 0.49, forecast error +0.94%, runup +0.94%, drawdown -0.94%US.CVS Median projection 0.46, forecast error +0.32%, runup +0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.PANW Median projection 1.58, forecast error +11.05%, runup +11.05%, drawdown -11.05%US.CSCO Median projection 1.01, forecast error +15.69%, runup +15.69%, drawdown -15.69%US.PANW Median projection 1.58, forecast error +7.09%, runup +7.09%, drawdown -7.09%US.F Median projection 0.43, forecast error -4.41%, runup -4.41%, drawdown -4.41%US.GEN Median projection 1.58, forecast error +2.93%, runup +2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.HPE Median projection 1.57, forecast error -5.99%, runup -5.99%, drawdown -5.99%US.WMB Median projection 0.48, forecast error +1.72%, runup +1.72%, drawdown -1.72%US.F Median projection 0.61, forecast error -10.42%, runup -10.42%, drawdown -10.42%US.CSCO Median projection 1.08, forecast error -1.21%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.JBHT Median projection 0.27, forecast error -0.01%, runup -0.01%, drawdown -0.01%US.CRWD Median projection 2.17, forecast error +7.26%, runup +7.26%, drawdown -7.26%US.PANW Median projection 1.73, forecast error -0.15%, runup -0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.XOM Median projection 0.41, forecast error -1.45%, runup -1.45%, drawdown -1.45%US.UNP Median projection 0.22, forecast error -3.74%, runup -3.74%, drawdown -3.74%US.COST Median projection 0.53, forecast error -2.95%, runup -2.95%, drawdown -2.95%US.D Median projection 0.49, forecast error +0.59%, runup +0.59%, drawdown -0.59%US.ADP Median projection 0.27, forecast error -1.55%, runup -1.55%, drawdown -1.55%US.KR Median projection 0.27, forecast error -5.02%, runup -5.02%, drawdown -5.02%US.COST Median projection 0.47, forecast error -6.51%, runup -6.51%, drawdown -6.51%US.DXCM Median projection 0.59, forecast error +7.10%, runup +7.10%, drawdown -7.10%US.WMB Median projection 0.17, forecast error -1.34%, runup -1.34%, drawdown -1.34%US.DXCM Median projection 0.56, forecast error +0.24%, runup +0.24%, drawdown -0.24%US.GS Median projection 0.27, forecast error +0.99%, runup +0.99%, drawdown -0.99%US.CRWD Median projection 2.17, forecast error +1.13%, runup +1.13%, drawdown -1.13%US.GEN Median projection 2.2, forecast error -3.16%, runup -3.16%, drawdown -3.16%US.MET Median projection 0.27, forecast error -1.57%, runup -1.57%, drawdown -1.57%US.CPRT Median projection 0.03, forecast error -4.54%, runup -4.54%, drawdown -4.54%US.IBM Median projection 0.96, forecast error -0.08%, runup -0.08%, drawdown -0.08%US.FSLR Median projection 1.65, forecast error +8.31%, runup +8.31%, drawdown -8.31%US.NTAP Median projection 1.58, forecast error +0.60%, runup +0.60%, drawdown -0.60%US.HPQ Median projection 1.59, forecast error -2.50%, runup -2.50%, drawdown -2.50%US.DELL Median projection 1.58, forecast error +5.83%, runup +5.83%, drawdown -5.83%US.HPE Median projection 1.58, forecast error +0.10%, runup +0.10%, drawdown -0.10%US.MU Median projection 1.58, forecast error +6.81%, runup +6.81%, drawdown -6.81%US.JBL Median projection 2.44, forecast error -6.57%, runup -6.57%, drawdown -6.57%US.MRVL Median projection 1.61, forecast error -3.18%, runup -3.18%, drawdown -3.18%US.LRCX Median projection 1.17, forecast error -2.56%, runup -2.56%, drawdown -2.56%US.STLD Median projection 0.36, forecast error +0.95%, runup +0.95%, drawdown -0.95%US.APP Median projection 1.58, forecast error +6.50%, runup +6.50%, drawdown -6.50%US.NTAP Median projection 1.58, forecast error +24.31%, runup +24.31%, drawdown -24.31%US.MGM Median projection 0.35, forecast error +20.48%, runup +20.48%, drawdown -20.48%US.HRL Median projection 0.41, forecast error -1.43%, runup -1.43%, drawdown -1.43%US.DLTR Median projection 0.62, forecast error -3.81%, runup -3.81%, drawdown -3.81%US.A Median projection 0.7, forecast error -0.94%, runup -0.94%, drawdown -0.94%US.FSLR Median projection 1.61, forecast error +0.91%, runup +0.91%, drawdown -0.91%US.HOOD Median projection 0.83, forecast error -12.97%, runup -12.97%, drawdown -12.97%US.ORCL Median projection 1.07, forecast error +0.95%, runup +0.95%, drawdown -0.95%US.WDAY Median projection 1.59, forecast error -1.10%, runup -1.10%, drawdown -1.10%US.PLTR Median projection 1.61, forecast error -10.77%, runup -10.77%, drawdown -10.77% Bucket avg Median projection 0.7, forecast error +0.36%, n 116Bucket avg Median projection 2.2, forecast error -0.33%, n 4 Corr +0.08 R² 0.7% n 120 Median projection return Actual - median

X = Median projection return. Y = actual - median. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +0.33%

DOE ranking

Ranked by a composite DOE score: lower median/mean absolute error, lower bias, enough anchors, and better IQR coverage.

Rank Horizon n Median abs Mean abs Bias Inside P25/P75 Anchors DOE score
#1 3D 500 2.47% 4.09% +0.33% 54.2% 120 2.581
#2 3D 80 2.53% 4.08% +0.17% 52.5% 120 2.587
#3 3D 120 2.64% 4.05% +0.19% 55.8% 120 2.627
#4 3D 160 2.66% 4.04% +0.25% 52.5% 120 2.65
#5 3D 40 2.67% 4.07% +0.22% 54.2% 120 2.657
#6 3D 320 2.67% 4.07% +0.29% 55% 120 2.665
#7 3D 240 2.71% 4.04% +0.26% 54.2% 120 2.673
#8 5D 80 3.81% 6.61% +2.09% 50% 112 4.407
#9 5D 120 3.94% 6.53% +2.14% 51.8% 112 4.447
#10 5D 40 3.95% 6.52% +2.27% 47.3% 112 4.479
#11 5D 160 4.09% 6.57% +2.25% 50.9% 112 4.555
#12 5D 240 4.26% 6.6% +2.27% 53.6% 112 4.646
#13 5D 320 4.3% 6.71% +2.41% 51.8% 112 4.731
#14 5D 500 4.26% 6.76% +2.54% 50% 112 4.752
#15 10D 120 5.86% 8.05% +1.78% 45.7% 92 5.9
#16 10D 240 5.91% 8.14% +2.05% 46.7% 92 5.995
#17 10D 160 6.07% 8.08% +1.78% 46.7% 92 6.013
#18 10D 80 6.11% 8.02% +1.77% 42.4% 92 6.022
#19 10D 320 5.83% 8.23% +2.39% 46.7% 92 6.037
#20 10D 40 6.28% 7.99% +1.90% 41.3% 92 6.118
#21 15D 80 5.96% 8.5% +2.52% 50% 72 6.208
#22 15D 40 6.49% 8.26% +1.61% 48.6% 72 6.256
#23 10D 500 6.09% 8.35% +2.83% 42.4% 92 6.286
#24 15D 240 6.22% 9.06% +4.40% 51.4% 72 6.813
#25 15D 160 6.51% 8.91% +3.94% 55.6% 72 6.826
#26 15D 120 6.84% 8.69% +3.52% 54.2% 72 6.854
#27 15D 320 6.08% 9.24% +4.76% 51.4% 72 6.86
#28 15D 500 6.05% 9.51% +5.28% 52.8% 72 7.014
#29 20D 80 5.94% 10.62% +5.67% 71.2% 52 7.36
#30 20D 40 7.64% 10.52% +3.10% 69.2% 52 7.794