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Rolling projection DOE

Find the projection setup whose median is closest to actual outcomes.

Replay completed anchors and rank horizon × sample-size settings by projection error.

Snapshot 2026-05-14
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-05-14
Window 2026-03-30 → 2026-05-11
Anchors 120
Lookback 730D
Confidence low
Computed at 2026年6月25日 上午5:12 HKT
Point-in-time Point-in-time safe

Best rolling setting

3D · n=500

DOE results snapshot · Window: 2026-03-30 → 2026-05-11 · anchors: 120 · latest snapshot: 2026-05-14 · computed at: 2026年6月25日 上午5:12 HKT

Median abs error2.51%
Mean abs error3.82%
Bias+1.31%
Inside P25/P7550.8%

DOE setting comparison

Same idea as score-vs-outcome analysis: compare each parameter setting by observed actual-minus-median error over rolling completed anchors. Lower median abs error and lower bias win.

Setting Median abs Bias P25/P75 hit n Read
Setting 3D · n=500
Median abs 2.51%
Bias +1.31%
P25/P75 hit 50.8%
n 120
Rank Best setting
Setting 3D · n=320
Median abs 2.58%
Bias +1.32%
P25/P75 hit 51.7%
n 120
Rank #2 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=120
Median abs 2.63%
Bias +1.36%
P25/P75 hit 56.7%
n 120
Rank #3 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=160
Median abs 2.67%
Bias +1.36%
P25/P75 hit 52.5%
n 120
Rank #4 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=240
Median abs 2.71%
Bias +1.30%
P25/P75 hit 52.5%
n 120
Rank #5 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=80
Median abs 2.63%
Bias +1.45%
P25/P75 hit 51.7%
n 120
Rank #6 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=40
Median abs 2.84%
Bias +1.56%
P25/P75 hit 51.7%
n 120
Rank #7 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=320
Median abs 3.66%
Bias +2.66%
P25/P75 hit 50.9%
n 112
Rank #8 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=240
Median abs 3.67%
Bias +2.68%
P25/P75 hit 52.7%
n 112
Rank #9 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=500
Median abs 3.69%
Bias +2.66%
P25/P75 hit 48.2%
n 112
Rank #10 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=160
Median abs 3.75%
Bias +2.87%
P25/P75 hit 50%
n 112
Rank #11 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=120
Median abs 3.81%
Bias +2.90%
P25/P75 hit 49.1%
n 112
Rank #12 Candidate

Best setting 3D · n=500: median projection vs actual return

-2 0 2 -14.00% 0.00% +24.00% US.NWS Median projection 0.06, actual return -0.74%, runup -0.80%, drawdown -0.80%US.CF Median projection 0.3, actual return -5.55%, runup -5.85%, drawdown -5.85%US.CTVA Median projection 0.16, actual return +3.03%, runup +2.87%, drawdown -2.87%US.LYB Median projection 0.4, actual return -3.37%, runup -3.77%, drawdown -3.77%US.CASY Median projection -0.05, actual return +2.74%, runup +2.79%, drawdown -2.79%US.FDS Median projection 0.01, actual return +6.43%, runup +6.42%, drawdown -6.42%US.NWSA Median projection -0.02, actual return -1.85%, runup -1.83%, drawdown -1.83%US.NWS Median projection 0, actual return -1.30%, runup -1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.CASY Median projection -0.08, actual return +0.63%, runup +0.71%, drawdown -0.71%US.MRVL Median projection -0.08, actual return +2.50%, runup +2.58%, drawdown -2.58%US.FDS Median projection -0.05, actual return +1.22%, runup +1.27%, drawdown -1.27%US.ETR Median projection -0.08, actual return +0.26%, runup +0.34%, drawdown -0.34%US.CIEN Median projection -0.23, actual return +10.33%, runup +10.56%, drawdown -10.56%US.INTC Median projection -0.15, actual return +17.01%, runup +17.16%, drawdown -17.16%US.SBAC Median projection -0.15, actual return +7.19%, runup +7.34%, drawdown -7.34%US.LITE Median projection -0.11, actual return +8.36%, runup +8.47%, drawdown -8.47%US.SBAC Median projection -0.31, actual return +2.84%, runup +3.15%, drawdown -3.15%US.VRSN Median projection -0.64, actual return -1.69%, runup -1.05%, drawdown -1.05%US.MRVL Median projection -0.31, actual return +9.52%, runup +9.83%, drawdown -9.83%US.STX Median projection -0.34, actual return +10.47%, runup +10.81%, drawdown -10.81%US.UNH Median projection -0.66, actual return -1.10%, runup -0.44%, drawdown -0.44%US.JBL Median projection 0, actual return +9.77%, runup +9.77%, drawdown -9.77%US.PNC Median projection -0.62, actual return +3.37%, runup +3.99%, drawdown -3.99%US.HUM Median projection -0.66, actual return -2.54%, runup -1.88%, drawdown -1.88%US.SBAC Median projection -0.54, actual return +0.70%, runup +1.24%, drawdown -1.24%US.JBL Median projection -0.4, actual return +6.35%, runup +6.75%, drawdown -6.75%US.MPWR Median projection -0.64, actual return +4.52%, runup +5.16%, drawdown -5.16%US.TER Median projection -0.63, actual return +3.30%, runup +3.93%, drawdown -3.93%US.JBL Median projection -0.3, actual return +4.42%, runup +4.72%, drawdown -4.72%US.STZ Median projection -0.6, actual return +0.88%, runup +1.48%, drawdown -1.48%US.BF.B Median projection -0.65, actual return -3.63%, runup -2.98%, drawdown -2.98%US.AMZN Median projection -0.66, actual return +6.58%, runup +7.24%, drawdown -7.24%US.MRVL Median projection -0.63, actual return +4.76%, runup +5.39%, drawdown -5.39%US.LRCX Median projection -0.39, actual return +0.57%, runup +0.96%, drawdown -0.96%US.STZ Median projection -0.35, actual return -1.32%, runup -0.97%, drawdown -0.97%US.JBL Median projection -0.45, actual return +1.82%, runup +2.27%, drawdown -2.27%US.BLK Median projection -0.02, actual return +0.13%, runup +0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.SNDK Median projection -0.23, actual return -3.47%, runup -3.24%, drawdown -3.24%US.DELL Median projection -0.22, actual return +1.74%, runup +1.96%, drawdown -1.96%US.JBL Median projection -0.08, actual return +1.55%, runup +1.63%, drawdown -1.63%US.BLK Median projection 0.07, actual return -0.23%, runup -0.30%, drawdown -0.30%US.JBL Median projection 0.07, actual return +5.14%, runup +5.07%, drawdown -5.07%US.AMZN Median projection -0.09, actual return +0.62%, runup +0.71%, drawdown -0.71%US.A Median projection 0.02, actual return +1.23%, runup +1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.ORCL Median projection 0.2, actual return +4.58%, runup +4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.HOOD Median projection 0.39, actual return +4.53%, runup +4.14%, drawdown -4.14%US.DASH Median projection 0.05, actual return +5.48%, runup +5.43%, drawdown -5.43%US.MSFT Median projection 0.16, actual return +1.67%, runup +1.51%, drawdown -1.51%US.CHRW Median projection 0.25, actual return +1.12%, runup +0.87%, drawdown -0.87%US.ON Median projection 0.33, actual return +8.73%, runup +8.40%, drawdown -8.40%US.AMD Median projection 0.35, actual return +2.24%, runup +1.89%, drawdown -1.89%US.ALB Median projection 0.35, actual return -7.98%, runup -8.33%, drawdown -8.33%US.EXPE Median projection 0.62, actual return -0.47%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.JBL Median projection 0.89, actual return +4.57%, runup +3.68%, drawdown -3.68%US.ADI Median projection 0.61, actual return +2.68%, runup +2.07%, drawdown -2.07%US.A Median projection 0.35, actual return -1.15%, runup -1.50%, drawdown -1.50%US.TGT Median projection 0.32, actual return -0.01%, runup -0.33%, drawdown -0.33%US.ADI Median projection 0.73, actual return +5.99%, runup +5.26%, drawdown -5.26%US.STLD Median projection 0.54, actual return +7.50%, runup +6.96%, drawdown -6.96%US.JBL Median projection 0.87, actual return +2.50%, runup +1.63%, drawdown -1.63%US.NTRS Median projection 0.95, actual return -4.50%, runup -5.45%, drawdown -5.45%US.HPQ Median projection 0.95, actual return -6.16%, runup -7.11%, drawdown -7.11%US.STLD Median projection 0.7, actual return +2.99%, runup +2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.NTAP Median projection 0.7, actual return -2.76%, runup -3.46%, drawdown -3.46%US.STLD Median projection 0.41, actual return -1.06%, runup -1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.ISRG Median projection 0.32, actual return -2.61%, runup -2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.GEV Median projection 0.54, actual return -0.65%, runup -1.19%, drawdown -1.19%US.MAS Median projection 0.56, actual return +0.38%, runup -0.18%, drawdown -0.18%US.CSX Median projection 0.37, actual return -2.06%, runup -2.43%, drawdown -2.43%US.DOV Median projection 0.23, actual return -1.76%, runup -1.99%, drawdown -1.99%US.WST Median projection 0.22, actual return -5.67%, runup -5.89%, drawdown -5.89%US.TXN Median projection 0.6, actual return -6.10%, runup -6.70%, drawdown -6.70%US.QCOM Median projection 0.83, actual return +4.80%, runup +3.97%, drawdown -3.97%US.BKR Median projection 0.7, actual return -0.19%, runup -0.89%, drawdown -0.89%US.AMD Median projection 1.21, actual return -3.08%, runup -4.29%, drawdown -4.29%US.SNPS Median projection 1.12, actual return -3.91%, runup -5.03%, drawdown -5.03%US.CNC Median projection 0.19, actual return +23.43%, runup +23.24%, drawdown -23.24%US.ELV Median projection 0.2, actual return +5.70%, runup +5.50%, drawdown -5.50%US.SNDK Median projection 1.09, actual return +2.46%, runup +1.37%, drawdown -1.37%US.NVDA Median projection 0.67, actual return -7.87%, runup -8.54%, drawdown -8.54%US.EQR Median projection 0.14, actual return +0.03%, runup -0.11%, drawdown -0.11%US.CNC Median projection 0.39, actual return +7.61%, runup +7.22%, drawdown -7.22%US.ESS Median projection 0.14, actual return -1.69%, runup -1.83%, drawdown -1.83%US.AVB Median projection 0.01, actual return -0.03%, runup -0.04%, drawdown -0.04%US.GNRC Median projection 0.34, actual return +1.64%, runup +1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.CNC Median projection 0.44, actual return -0.78%, runup -1.22%, drawdown -1.22%US.NXPI Median projection 0.78, actual return +0.52%, runup -0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.EQR Median projection 0.12, actual return -0.29%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.CAT Median projection 0.09, actual return +1.63%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.GOOGL Median projection 0.27, actual return +0.94%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.QCOM Median projection 0.46, actual return +3.88%, runup +3.42%, drawdown -3.42%US.PWR Median projection 0.09, actual return +6.02%, runup +5.93%, drawdown -5.93%US.STX Median projection 0.86, actual return +8.18%, runup +7.32%, drawdown -7.32%US.SNDK Median projection 0.72, actual return +18.79%, runup +18.07%, drawdown -18.07%US.FRT Median projection 0.28, actual return +1.26%, runup +0.98%, drawdown -0.98%US.PWR Median projection 0.14, actual return +5.80%, runup +5.66%, drawdown -5.66%US.TSN Median projection 0.4, actual return -1.18%, runup -1.58%, drawdown -1.58%US.PWR Median projection 0.22, actual return -0.87%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.ADM Median projection 0.44, actual return +1.65%, runup +1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.CBOE Median projection 0.56, actual return -0.08%, runup -0.64%, drawdown -0.64%US.ADM Median projection 0.34, actual return -1.93%, runup -2.27%, drawdown -2.27%US.DD Median projection 0.28, actual return +1.06%, runup +0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.SWKS Median projection 0.93, actual return -7.97%, runup -8.90%, drawdown -8.90%US.J Median projection 0.2, actual return -13.27%, runup -13.47%, drawdown -13.47%US.RVTY Median projection 0.36, actual return -0.14%, runup -0.50%, drawdown -0.50%US.JBL Median projection 0.71, actual return -1.91%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.SMCI Median projection 1.09, actual return -3.29%, runup -4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.DVA Median projection 0.36, actual return +2.60%, runup +2.24%, drawdown -2.24%US.HWM Median projection 0.26, actual return -1.02%, runup -1.28%, drawdown -1.28%US.VTRS Median projection 0.32, actual return -1.27%, runup -1.59%, drawdown -1.59%US.APP Median projection 1.19, actual return -1.64%, runup -2.83%, drawdown -2.83%US.FTNT Median projection 1.15, actual return +5.46%, runup +4.31%, drawdown -4.31%US.GEN Median projection 1.26, actual return +2.69%, runup +1.43%, drawdown -1.43%US.MNST Median projection 0.44, actual return -0.42%, runup -0.86%, drawdown -0.86%US.PANW Median projection 1.27, actual return +9.58%, runup +8.31%, drawdown -8.31%US.FTNT Median projection 1.26, actual return +3.17%, runup +1.91%, drawdown -1.91%US.FOXA Median projection 0.53, actual return -3.54%, runup -4.07%, drawdown -4.07%US.FSLR Median projection 1.63, actual return -0.71%, runup -2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.COHR Median projection 1.58, actual return +6.65%, runup +5.07%, drawdown -5.07%US.FOX Median projection 0.56, actual return -4.22%, runup -4.78%, drawdown -4.78% Bucket avg Median projection -0.3, actual return +2.91%, n 34Bucket avg Median projection 0.5, actual return +1.05%, n 86 Corr -0.12 R² 1.5% n 120 Median projection return Actual return

X = Median projection return. Y = actual return. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +1.58%

Best setting 3D · n=500: median projection vs forecast error

-2 0 2 -14.00% 0.00% +24.00% US.NWS Median projection 0.06, forecast error -0.80%, runup -0.80%, drawdown -0.80%US.CF Median projection 0.3, forecast error -5.85%, runup -5.85%, drawdown -5.85%US.CTVA Median projection 0.16, forecast error +2.87%, runup +2.87%, drawdown -2.87%US.LYB Median projection 0.4, forecast error -3.77%, runup -3.77%, drawdown -3.77%US.CASY Median projection -0.05, forecast error +2.79%, runup +2.79%, drawdown -2.79%US.FDS Median projection 0.01, forecast error +6.42%, runup +6.42%, drawdown -6.42%US.NWSA Median projection -0.02, forecast error -1.83%, runup -1.83%, drawdown -1.83%US.NWS Median projection 0, forecast error -1.30%, runup -1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.CASY Median projection -0.08, forecast error +0.71%, runup +0.71%, drawdown -0.71%US.MRVL Median projection -0.08, forecast error +2.58%, runup +2.58%, drawdown -2.58%US.FDS Median projection -0.05, forecast error +1.27%, runup +1.27%, drawdown -1.27%US.ETR Median projection -0.08, forecast error +0.34%, runup +0.34%, drawdown -0.34%US.CIEN Median projection -0.23, forecast error +10.56%, runup +10.56%, drawdown -10.56%US.INTC Median projection -0.15, forecast error +17.16%, runup +17.16%, drawdown -17.16%US.SBAC Median projection -0.15, forecast error +7.34%, runup +7.34%, drawdown -7.34%US.LITE Median projection -0.11, forecast error +8.47%, runup +8.47%, drawdown -8.47%US.SBAC Median projection -0.31, forecast error +3.15%, runup +3.15%, drawdown -3.15%US.VRSN Median projection -0.64, forecast error -1.05%, runup -1.05%, drawdown -1.05%US.MRVL Median projection -0.31, forecast error +9.83%, runup +9.83%, drawdown -9.83%US.STX Median projection -0.34, forecast error +10.81%, runup +10.81%, drawdown -10.81%US.UNH Median projection -0.66, forecast error -0.44%, runup -0.44%, drawdown -0.44%US.JBL Median projection 0, forecast error +9.77%, runup +9.77%, drawdown -9.77%US.PNC Median projection -0.62, forecast error +3.99%, runup +3.99%, drawdown -3.99%US.HUM Median projection -0.66, forecast error -1.88%, runup -1.88%, drawdown -1.88%US.SBAC Median projection -0.54, forecast error +1.24%, runup +1.24%, drawdown -1.24%US.JBL Median projection -0.4, forecast error +6.75%, runup +6.75%, drawdown -6.75%US.MPWR Median projection -0.64, forecast error +5.16%, runup +5.16%, drawdown -5.16%US.TER Median projection -0.63, forecast error +3.93%, runup +3.93%, drawdown -3.93%US.JBL Median projection -0.3, forecast error +4.72%, runup +4.72%, drawdown -4.72%US.STZ Median projection -0.6, forecast error +1.48%, runup +1.48%, drawdown -1.48%US.BF.B Median projection -0.65, forecast error -2.98%, runup -2.98%, drawdown -2.98%US.AMZN Median projection -0.66, forecast error +7.24%, runup +7.24%, drawdown -7.24%US.MRVL Median projection -0.63, forecast error +5.39%, runup +5.39%, drawdown -5.39%US.LRCX Median projection -0.39, forecast error +0.96%, runup +0.96%, drawdown -0.96%US.STZ Median projection -0.35, forecast error -0.97%, runup -0.97%, drawdown -0.97%US.JBL Median projection -0.45, forecast error +2.27%, runup +2.27%, drawdown -2.27%US.BLK Median projection -0.02, forecast error +0.15%, runup +0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.SNDK Median projection -0.23, forecast error -3.24%, runup -3.24%, drawdown -3.24%US.DELL Median projection -0.22, forecast error +1.96%, runup +1.96%, drawdown -1.96%US.JBL Median projection -0.08, forecast error +1.63%, runup +1.63%, drawdown -1.63%US.BLK Median projection 0.07, forecast error -0.30%, runup -0.30%, drawdown -0.30%US.JBL Median projection 0.07, forecast error +5.07%, runup +5.07%, drawdown -5.07%US.AMZN Median projection -0.09, forecast error +0.71%, runup +0.71%, drawdown -0.71%US.A Median projection 0.02, forecast error +1.21%, runup +1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.ORCL Median projection 0.2, forecast error +4.38%, runup +4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.HOOD Median projection 0.39, forecast error +4.14%, runup +4.14%, drawdown -4.14%US.DASH Median projection 0.05, forecast error +5.43%, runup +5.43%, drawdown -5.43%US.MSFT Median projection 0.16, forecast error +1.51%, runup +1.51%, drawdown -1.51%US.CHRW Median projection 0.25, forecast error +0.87%, runup +0.87%, drawdown -0.87%US.ON Median projection 0.33, forecast error +8.40%, runup +8.40%, drawdown -8.40%US.AMD Median projection 0.35, forecast error +1.89%, runup +1.89%, drawdown -1.89%US.ALB Median projection 0.35, forecast error -8.33%, runup -8.33%, drawdown -8.33%US.EXPE Median projection 0.62, forecast error -1.09%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.JBL Median projection 0.89, forecast error +3.68%, runup +3.68%, drawdown -3.68%US.ADI Median projection 0.61, forecast error +2.07%, runup +2.07%, drawdown -2.07%US.A Median projection 0.35, forecast error -1.50%, runup -1.50%, drawdown -1.50%US.TGT Median projection 0.32, forecast error -0.33%, runup -0.33%, drawdown -0.33%US.ADI Median projection 0.73, forecast error +5.26%, runup +5.26%, drawdown -5.26%US.STLD Median projection 0.54, forecast error +6.96%, runup +6.96%, drawdown -6.96%US.JBL Median projection 0.87, forecast error +1.63%, runup +1.63%, drawdown -1.63%US.NTRS Median projection 0.95, forecast error -5.45%, runup -5.45%, drawdown -5.45%US.HPQ Median projection 0.95, forecast error -7.11%, runup -7.11%, drawdown -7.11%US.STLD Median projection 0.7, forecast error +2.29%, runup +2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.NTAP Median projection 0.7, forecast error -3.46%, runup -3.46%, drawdown -3.46%US.STLD Median projection 0.41, forecast error -1.47%, runup -1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.ISRG Median projection 0.32, forecast error -2.93%, runup -2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.GEV Median projection 0.54, forecast error -1.19%, runup -1.19%, drawdown -1.19%US.MAS Median projection 0.56, forecast error -0.18%, runup -0.18%, drawdown -0.18%US.CSX Median projection 0.37, forecast error -2.43%, runup -2.43%, drawdown -2.43%US.DOV Median projection 0.23, forecast error -1.99%, runup -1.99%, drawdown -1.99%US.WST Median projection 0.22, forecast error -5.89%, runup -5.89%, drawdown -5.89%US.TXN Median projection 0.6, forecast error -6.70%, runup -6.70%, drawdown -6.70%US.QCOM Median projection 0.83, forecast error +3.97%, runup +3.97%, drawdown -3.97%US.BKR Median projection 0.7, forecast error -0.89%, runup -0.89%, drawdown -0.89%US.AMD Median projection 1.21, forecast error -4.29%, runup -4.29%, drawdown -4.29%US.SNPS Median projection 1.12, forecast error -5.03%, runup -5.03%, drawdown -5.03%US.CNC Median projection 0.19, forecast error +23.24%, runup +23.24%, drawdown -23.24%US.ELV Median projection 0.2, forecast error +5.50%, runup +5.50%, drawdown -5.50%US.SNDK Median projection 1.09, forecast error +1.37%, runup +1.37%, drawdown -1.37%US.NVDA Median projection 0.67, forecast error -8.54%, runup -8.54%, drawdown -8.54%US.EQR Median projection 0.14, forecast error -0.11%, runup -0.11%, drawdown -0.11%US.CNC Median projection 0.39, forecast error +7.22%, runup +7.22%, drawdown -7.22%US.ESS Median projection 0.14, forecast error -1.83%, runup -1.83%, drawdown -1.83%US.AVB Median projection 0.01, forecast error -0.04%, runup -0.04%, drawdown -0.04%US.GNRC Median projection 0.34, forecast error +1.30%, runup +1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.CNC Median projection 0.44, forecast error -1.22%, runup -1.22%, drawdown -1.22%US.NXPI Median projection 0.78, forecast error -0.26%, runup -0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.EQR Median projection 0.12, forecast error -0.41%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.CAT Median projection 0.09, forecast error +1.54%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.GOOGL Median projection 0.27, forecast error +0.67%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.QCOM Median projection 0.46, forecast error +3.42%, runup +3.42%, drawdown -3.42%US.PWR Median projection 0.09, forecast error +5.93%, runup +5.93%, drawdown -5.93%US.STX Median projection 0.86, forecast error +7.32%, runup +7.32%, drawdown -7.32%US.SNDK Median projection 0.72, forecast error +18.07%, runup +18.07%, drawdown -18.07%US.FRT Median projection 0.28, forecast error +0.98%, runup +0.98%, drawdown -0.98%US.PWR Median projection 0.14, forecast error +5.66%, runup +5.66%, drawdown -5.66%US.TSN Median projection 0.4, forecast error -1.58%, runup -1.58%, drawdown -1.58%US.PWR Median projection 0.22, forecast error -1.09%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.ADM Median projection 0.44, forecast error +1.21%, runup +1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.CBOE Median projection 0.56, forecast error -0.64%, runup -0.64%, drawdown -0.64%US.ADM Median projection 0.34, forecast error -2.27%, runup -2.27%, drawdown -2.27%US.DD Median projection 0.28, forecast error +0.78%, runup +0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.SWKS Median projection 0.93, forecast error -8.90%, runup -8.90%, drawdown -8.90%US.J Median projection 0.2, forecast error -13.47%, runup -13.47%, drawdown -13.47%US.RVTY Median projection 0.36, forecast error -0.50%, runup -0.50%, drawdown -0.50%US.JBL Median projection 0.71, forecast error -2.62%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.SMCI Median projection 1.09, forecast error -4.38%, runup -4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.DVA Median projection 0.36, forecast error +2.24%, runup +2.24%, drawdown -2.24%US.HWM Median projection 0.26, forecast error -1.28%, runup -1.28%, drawdown -1.28%US.VTRS Median projection 0.32, forecast error -1.59%, runup -1.59%, drawdown -1.59%US.APP Median projection 1.19, forecast error -2.83%, runup -2.83%, drawdown -2.83%US.FTNT Median projection 1.15, forecast error +4.31%, runup +4.31%, drawdown -4.31%US.GEN Median projection 1.26, forecast error +1.43%, runup +1.43%, drawdown -1.43%US.MNST Median projection 0.44, forecast error -0.86%, runup -0.86%, drawdown -0.86%US.PANW Median projection 1.27, forecast error +8.31%, runup +8.31%, drawdown -8.31%US.FTNT Median projection 1.26, forecast error +1.91%, runup +1.91%, drawdown -1.91%US.FOXA Median projection 0.53, forecast error -4.07%, runup -4.07%, drawdown -4.07%US.FSLR Median projection 1.63, forecast error -2.34%, runup -2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.COHR Median projection 1.58, forecast error +5.07%, runup +5.07%, drawdown -5.07%US.FOX Median projection 0.56, forecast error -4.78%, runup -4.78%, drawdown -4.78% Bucket avg Median projection -0.3, forecast error +3.24%, n 34Bucket avg Median projection 0.5, forecast error +0.55%, n 86 Corr -0.22 R² 4.7% n 120 Median projection return Actual - median

X = Median projection return. Y = actual - median. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +1.31%

DOE ranking

Ranked by a composite DOE score: lower median/mean absolute error, lower bias, enough anchors, and better IQR coverage.

Rank Horizon n Median abs Mean abs Bias Inside P25/P75 Anchors DOE score
#1 3D 500 2.51% 3.82% +1.31% 50.8% 120 2.661
#2 3D 320 2.58% 3.81% +1.32% 51.7% 120 2.692
#3 3D 120 2.63% 3.81% +1.36% 56.7% 120 2.711
#4 3D 160 2.67% 3.82% +1.36% 52.5% 120 2.745
#5 3D 240 2.71% 3.79% +1.30% 52.5% 120 2.745
#6 3D 80 2.63% 3.9% +1.45% 51.7% 120 2.768
#7 3D 40 2.84% 3.96% +1.56% 51.7% 120 2.911
#8 5D 320 3.66% 5.55% +2.66% 50.9% 112 4.044
#9 5D 240 3.67% 5.57% +2.68% 52.7% 112 4.055
#10 5D 500 3.69% 5.52% +2.66% 48.2% 112 4.056
#11 5D 160 3.75% 5.74% +2.87% 50% 112 4.19
#12 5D 120 3.81% 5.79% +2.90% 49.1% 112 4.244
#13 5D 80 3.8% 5.96% +3.11% 48.2% 112 4.332
#14 5D 40 4.13% 6.12% +3.29% 40.2% 112 4.6
#15 10D 320 5.6% 9.24% +6.72% 51.1% 92 6.914
#16 10D 240 5.65% 9.36% +6.68% 51.1% 92 6.975
#17 10D 500 5.74% 9.26% +6.85% 45.7% 92 7.024
#18 10D 160 5.74% 9.52% +6.67% 53.3% 92 7.069
#19 10D 120 6.1% 9.64% +6.68% 50% 92 7.301
#20 10D 80 6.32% 9.97% +6.82% 47.8% 92 7.553
#21 10D 40 6.19% 10.16% +7.16% 42.4% 92 7.619
#22 15D 40 8.16% 13.44% +9.67% 36.1% 72 10.144
#23 15D 120 8.37% 12.95% +10.23% 37.5% 72 10.158
#24 15D 80 8.49% 13.09% +9.89% 36.1% 72 10.22
#25 15D 500 8.7% 12.77% +10.07% 34.7% 72 10.243
#26 15D 320 9.24% 12.82% +10.16% 34.7% 72 10.544
#27 15D 240 9.32% 12.83% +10.22% 34.7% 72 10.597
#28 15D 160 9.31% 13% +10.35% 36.1% 72 10.667
#29 20D 500 11.16% 20.54% +18.03% 15.4% 52 15.435
#30 20D 240 11.34% 20.76% +18.17% 17.3% 52 15.618