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Rolling projection DOE

Find the projection setup whose median is closest to actual outcomes.

Replay completed anchors and rank horizon × sample-size settings by projection error.

Snapshot 2026-05-11
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-05-11
Window 2026-03-25 → 2026-05-06
Anchors 120
Lookback 730D
Confidence low
Computed at 2026年6月25日 上午5:19 HKT
Point-in-time Point-in-time safe

Best rolling setting

3D · n=500

DOE results snapshot · Window: 2026-03-25 → 2026-05-06 · anchors: 120 · latest snapshot: 2026-05-11 · computed at: 2026年6月25日 上午5:19 HKT

Median abs error2.55%
Mean abs error3.93%
Bias+0.95%
Inside P25/P7550%

DOE setting comparison

Same idea as score-vs-outcome analysis: compare each parameter setting by observed actual-minus-median error over rolling completed anchors. Lower median abs error and lower bias win.

Setting Median abs Bias P25/P75 hit n Read
Setting 3D · n=500
Median abs 2.55%
Bias +0.95%
P25/P75 hit 50%
n 120
Rank Best setting
Setting 3D · n=120
Median abs 2.59%
Bias +1.00%
P25/P75 hit 54.2%
n 120
Rank #2 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=320
Median abs 2.66%
Bias +0.96%
P25/P75 hit 50.8%
n 120
Rank #3 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=160
Median abs 2.67%
Bias +0.97%
P25/P75 hit 50%
n 120
Rank #4 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=240
Median abs 2.71%
Bias +0.93%
P25/P75 hit 51.7%
n 120
Rank #5 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=80
Median abs 2.59%
Bias +1.13%
P25/P75 hit 50.8%
n 120
Rank #6 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=40
Median abs 2.84%
Bias +1.20%
P25/P75 hit 48.3%
n 120
Rank #7 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=240
Median abs 3.52%
Bias +2.79%
P25/P75 hit 53.6%
n 112
Rank #8 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=320
Median abs 3.64%
Bias +2.78%
P25/P75 hit 51.8%
n 112
Rank #9 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=500
Median abs 3.67%
Bias +2.78%
P25/P75 hit 50%
n 112
Rank #10 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=160
Median abs 3.64%
Bias +2.96%
P25/P75 hit 49.1%
n 112
Rank #11 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=120
Median abs 3.76%
Bias +3.00%
P25/P75 hit 48.2%
n 112
Rank #12 Candidate

Best setting 3D · n=500: median projection vs actual return

-2 0 2 -14.00% 0.00% +24.00% US.VRSN Median projection 0.1, actual return -0.81%, runup -0.91%, drawdown -0.91%US.CASY Median projection 0.29, actual return -1.32%, runup -1.61%, drawdown -1.61%US.JBL Median projection 0.1, actual return -12.63%, runup -12.73%, drawdown -12.73%US.HPE Median projection -0.01, actual return -12.30%, runup -12.29%, drawdown -12.29%US.OXY Median projection 0.26, actual return +0.99%, runup +0.73%, drawdown -0.73%US.FANG Median projection 0.53, actual return -2.18%, runup -2.71%, drawdown -2.71%US.APA Median projection 0.81, actual return -0.84%, runup -1.65%, drawdown -1.65%US.BF.B Median projection 0.19, actual return +2.72%, runup +2.53%, drawdown -2.53%US.XOM Median projection 0.4, actual return -5.97%, runup -6.37%, drawdown -6.37%US.ETR Median projection 0.19, actual return +3.37%, runup +3.18%, drawdown -3.18%US.APA Median projection 0.66, actual return -6.85%, runup -7.51%, drawdown -7.51%US.BG Median projection 0.19, actual return -0.31%, runup -0.50%, drawdown -0.50%US.CTVA Median projection 0.16, actual return +3.03%, runup +2.87%, drawdown -2.87%US.NWS Median projection 0.07, actual return -0.74%, runup -0.81%, drawdown -0.81%US.CF Median projection 0.32, actual return -5.55%, runup -5.87%, drawdown -5.87%US.LYB Median projection 0.4, actual return -3.37%, runup -3.77%, drawdown -3.77%US.CASY Median projection 0.05, actual return +2.74%, runup +2.69%, drawdown -2.69%US.FDS Median projection 0.06, actual return +6.43%, runup +6.37%, drawdown -6.37%US.NWSA Median projection 0.03, actual return -1.85%, runup -1.88%, drawdown -1.88%US.NWS Median projection 0, actual return -1.30%, runup -1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.CASY Median projection -0.06, actual return +0.63%, runup +0.69%, drawdown -0.69%US.MRVL Median projection -0.08, actual return +2.50%, runup +2.58%, drawdown -2.58%US.FDS Median projection -0.1, actual return +1.22%, runup +1.32%, drawdown -1.32%US.ETR Median projection -0.09, actual return +0.26%, runup +0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.LITE Median projection -0.11, actual return +8.36%, runup +8.47%, drawdown -8.47%US.INTC Median projection -0.15, actual return +17.01%, runup +17.16%, drawdown -17.16%US.SBAC Median projection -0.15, actual return +7.19%, runup +7.34%, drawdown -7.34%US.CIEN Median projection -0.23, actual return +10.33%, runup +10.56%, drawdown -10.56%US.STX Median projection -0.34, actual return +10.47%, runup +10.81%, drawdown -10.81%US.VRSN Median projection -0.64, actual return -1.69%, runup -1.05%, drawdown -1.05%US.MRVL Median projection -0.31, actual return +9.52%, runup +9.83%, drawdown -9.83%US.SBAC Median projection -0.31, actual return +2.84%, runup +3.15%, drawdown -3.15%US.UNH Median projection -0.62, actual return -1.10%, runup -0.48%, drawdown -0.48%US.JBL Median projection 0, actual return +9.77%, runup +9.77%, drawdown -9.77%US.PNC Median projection -0.54, actual return +3.37%, runup +3.91%, drawdown -3.91%US.HUM Median projection -0.66, actual return -2.54%, runup -1.88%, drawdown -1.88%US.TER Median projection -0.58, actual return +3.30%, runup +3.88%, drawdown -3.88%US.JBL Median projection -0.5, actual return +6.35%, runup +6.85%, drawdown -6.85%US.MPWR Median projection -0.65, actual return +4.52%, runup +5.17%, drawdown -5.17%US.SBAC Median projection -0.63, actual return +0.70%, runup +1.33%, drawdown -1.33%US.AMZN Median projection -0.66, actual return +6.58%, runup +7.24%, drawdown -7.24%US.STZ Median projection -0.62, actual return +0.88%, runup +1.50%, drawdown -1.50%US.BF.B Median projection -0.65, actual return -3.63%, runup -2.98%, drawdown -2.98%US.JBL Median projection -0.31, actual return +4.42%, runup +4.73%, drawdown -4.73%US.MRVL Median projection -0.58, actual return +4.76%, runup +5.34%, drawdown -5.34%US.LRCX Median projection -0.36, actual return +0.57%, runup +0.93%, drawdown -0.93%US.STZ Median projection -0.36, actual return -1.32%, runup -0.96%, drawdown -0.96%US.JBL Median projection -0.45, actual return +1.82%, runup +2.27%, drawdown -2.27%US.BLK Median projection -0.01, actual return +0.13%, runup +0.14%, drawdown -0.14%US.SNDK Median projection -0.19, actual return -3.47%, runup -3.28%, drawdown -3.28%US.DELL Median projection -0.23, actual return +1.74%, runup +1.97%, drawdown -1.97%US.JBL Median projection -0.11, actual return +1.55%, runup +1.66%, drawdown -1.66%US.BLK Median projection 0.1, actual return -0.23%, runup -0.33%, drawdown -0.33%US.JBL Median projection 0.1, actual return +5.14%, runup +5.04%, drawdown -5.04%US.AMZN Median projection -0.09, actual return +0.62%, runup +0.71%, drawdown -0.71%US.A Median projection 0.06, actual return +1.23%, runup +1.17%, drawdown -1.17%US.MSFT Median projection 0.22, actual return +1.67%, runup +1.45%, drawdown -1.45%US.ORCL Median projection 0.2, actual return +4.58%, runup +4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.DASH Median projection 0.07, actual return +5.48%, runup +5.41%, drawdown -5.41%US.HOOD Median projection 0.42, actual return +4.53%, runup +4.11%, drawdown -4.11%US.ALB Median projection 0.35, actual return -7.98%, runup -8.33%, drawdown -8.33%US.ON Median projection 0.33, actual return +8.73%, runup +8.40%, drawdown -8.40%US.CHRW Median projection 0.25, actual return +1.12%, runup +0.87%, drawdown -0.87%US.AMD Median projection 0.35, actual return +2.24%, runup +1.89%, drawdown -1.89%US.A Median projection 0.34, actual return -1.15%, runup -1.49%, drawdown -1.49%US.JBL Median projection 0.67, actual return +4.57%, runup +3.90%, drawdown -3.90%US.ADI Median projection 0.59, actual return +2.68%, runup +2.09%, drawdown -2.09%US.EXPE Median projection 0.55, actual return -0.47%, runup -1.02%, drawdown -1.02%US.ADI Median projection 0.71, actual return +5.99%, runup +5.28%, drawdown -5.28%US.JBL Median projection 0.9, actual return +2.50%, runup +1.60%, drawdown -1.60%US.STLD Median projection 0.56, actual return +7.50%, runup +6.94%, drawdown -6.94%US.TGT Median projection 0.34, actual return -0.01%, runup -0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.NTAP Median projection 0.7, actual return -2.76%, runup -3.46%, drawdown -3.46%US.HPQ Median projection 0.95, actual return -6.16%, runup -7.11%, drawdown -7.11%US.STLD Median projection 0.7, actual return +2.99%, runup +2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.NTRS Median projection 0.95, actual return -4.50%, runup -5.45%, drawdown -5.45%US.GEV Median projection 0.56, actual return -0.65%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.STLD Median projection 0.4, actual return -1.06%, runup -1.46%, drawdown -1.46%US.ISRG Median projection 0.32, actual return -2.61%, runup -2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.MAS Median projection 0.59, actual return +0.38%, runup -0.21%, drawdown -0.21%US.TXN Median projection 0.6, actual return -6.10%, runup -6.70%, drawdown -6.70%US.WST Median projection 0.22, actual return -5.67%, runup -5.89%, drawdown -5.89%US.CSX Median projection 0.37, actual return -2.06%, runup -2.43%, drawdown -2.43%US.DOV Median projection 0.23, actual return -1.76%, runup -1.99%, drawdown -1.99%US.QCOM Median projection 0.81, actual return +4.80%, runup +3.99%, drawdown -3.99%US.BKR Median projection 0.59, actual return -0.19%, runup -0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.SNPS Median projection 1.06, actual return -3.91%, runup -4.97%, drawdown -4.97%US.AMD Median projection 1.15, actual return -3.08%, runup -4.23%, drawdown -4.23%US.ELV Median projection 0.2, actual return +5.70%, runup +5.50%, drawdown -5.50%US.CNC Median projection 0.19, actual return +23.43%, runup +23.24%, drawdown -23.24%US.SNDK Median projection 1.09, actual return +2.46%, runup +1.37%, drawdown -1.37%US.NVDA Median projection 0.67, actual return -7.87%, runup -8.54%, drawdown -8.54%US.EQR Median projection 0.26, actual return +0.03%, runup -0.23%, drawdown -0.23%US.CNC Median projection 0.5, actual return +7.61%, runup +7.11%, drawdown -7.11%US.ESS Median projection 0.26, actual return -1.69%, runup -1.95%, drawdown -1.95%US.AVB Median projection 0.09, actual return -0.03%, runup -0.12%, drawdown -0.12%US.CNC Median projection 0.44, actual return -0.78%, runup -1.22%, drawdown -1.22%US.GNRC Median projection 0.34, actual return +1.64%, runup +1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.EQR Median projection 0.12, actual return -0.29%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.NXPI Median projection 0.78, actual return +0.52%, runup -0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.PWR Median projection 0.09, actual return +6.02%, runup +5.93%, drawdown -5.93%US.GOOGL Median projection 0.27, actual return +0.94%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.QCOM Median projection 0.46, actual return +3.88%, runup +3.42%, drawdown -3.42%US.CAT Median projection 0.09, actual return +1.63%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.PWR Median projection 0.22, actual return +5.80%, runup +5.58%, drawdown -5.58%US.FRT Median projection 0.3, actual return +1.26%, runup +0.96%, drawdown -0.96%US.STX Median projection 0.94, actual return +8.18%, runup +7.24%, drawdown -7.24%US.SNDK Median projection 0.93, actual return +18.79%, runup +17.86%, drawdown -17.86%US.CBOE Median projection 0.56, actual return -0.08%, runup -0.64%, drawdown -0.64%US.TSN Median projection 0.4, actual return -1.18%, runup -1.58%, drawdown -1.58%US.ADM Median projection 0.44, actual return +1.65%, runup +1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.PWR Median projection 0.22, actual return -0.87%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.ADM Median projection 0.36, actual return -1.93%, runup -2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.SWKS Median projection 0.94, actual return -7.97%, runup -8.91%, drawdown -8.91%US.DD Median projection 0.27, actual return +1.06%, runup +0.79%, drawdown -0.79%US.J Median projection 0.2, actual return -13.27%, runup -13.47%, drawdown -13.47%US.JBL Median projection 0.71, actual return -1.91%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.DVA Median projection 0.36, actual return +2.60%, runup +2.24%, drawdown -2.24%US.SMCI Median projection 1.09, actual return -3.29%, runup -4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.RVTY Median projection 0.36, actual return -0.14%, runup -0.50%, drawdown -0.50% Bucket avg Median projection -0.3, actual return +2.59%, n 33Bucket avg Median projection 0.4, actual return +0.61%, n 87 Corr -0.17 R² 2.9% n 120 Median projection return Actual return

X = Median projection return. Y = actual return. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +1.15%

Best setting 3D · n=500: median projection vs forecast error

-2 0 2 -14.00% 0.00% +24.00% US.VRSN Median projection 0.1, forecast error -0.91%, runup -0.91%, drawdown -0.91%US.CASY Median projection 0.29, forecast error -1.61%, runup -1.61%, drawdown -1.61%US.JBL Median projection 0.1, forecast error -12.73%, runup -12.73%, drawdown -12.73%US.HPE Median projection -0.01, forecast error -12.29%, runup -12.29%, drawdown -12.29%US.OXY Median projection 0.26, forecast error +0.73%, runup +0.73%, drawdown -0.73%US.FANG Median projection 0.53, forecast error -2.71%, runup -2.71%, drawdown -2.71%US.APA Median projection 0.81, forecast error -1.65%, runup -1.65%, drawdown -1.65%US.BF.B Median projection 0.19, forecast error +2.53%, runup +2.53%, drawdown -2.53%US.XOM Median projection 0.4, forecast error -6.37%, runup -6.37%, drawdown -6.37%US.ETR Median projection 0.19, forecast error +3.18%, runup +3.18%, drawdown -3.18%US.APA Median projection 0.66, forecast error -7.51%, runup -7.51%, drawdown -7.51%US.BG Median projection 0.19, forecast error -0.50%, runup -0.50%, drawdown -0.50%US.CTVA Median projection 0.16, forecast error +2.87%, runup +2.87%, drawdown -2.87%US.NWS Median projection 0.07, forecast error -0.81%, runup -0.81%, drawdown -0.81%US.CF Median projection 0.32, forecast error -5.87%, runup -5.87%, drawdown -5.87%US.LYB Median projection 0.4, forecast error -3.77%, runup -3.77%, drawdown -3.77%US.CASY Median projection 0.05, forecast error +2.69%, runup +2.69%, drawdown -2.69%US.FDS Median projection 0.06, forecast error +6.37%, runup +6.37%, drawdown -6.37%US.NWSA Median projection 0.03, forecast error -1.88%, runup -1.88%, drawdown -1.88%US.NWS Median projection 0, forecast error -1.30%, runup -1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.CASY Median projection -0.06, forecast error +0.69%, runup +0.69%, drawdown -0.69%US.MRVL Median projection -0.08, forecast error +2.58%, runup +2.58%, drawdown -2.58%US.FDS Median projection -0.1, forecast error +1.32%, runup +1.32%, drawdown -1.32%US.ETR Median projection -0.09, forecast error +0.35%, runup +0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.LITE Median projection -0.11, forecast error +8.47%, runup +8.47%, drawdown -8.47%US.INTC Median projection -0.15, forecast error +17.16%, runup +17.16%, drawdown -17.16%US.SBAC Median projection -0.15, forecast error +7.34%, runup +7.34%, drawdown -7.34%US.CIEN Median projection -0.23, forecast error +10.56%, runup +10.56%, drawdown -10.56%US.STX Median projection -0.34, forecast error +10.81%, runup +10.81%, drawdown -10.81%US.VRSN Median projection -0.64, forecast error -1.05%, runup -1.05%, drawdown -1.05%US.MRVL Median projection -0.31, forecast error +9.83%, runup +9.83%, drawdown -9.83%US.SBAC Median projection -0.31, forecast error +3.15%, runup +3.15%, drawdown -3.15%US.UNH Median projection -0.62, forecast error -0.48%, runup -0.48%, drawdown -0.48%US.JBL Median projection 0, forecast error +9.77%, runup +9.77%, drawdown -9.77%US.PNC Median projection -0.54, forecast error +3.91%, runup +3.91%, drawdown -3.91%US.HUM Median projection -0.66, forecast error -1.88%, runup -1.88%, drawdown -1.88%US.TER Median projection -0.58, forecast error +3.88%, runup +3.88%, drawdown -3.88%US.JBL Median projection -0.5, forecast error +6.85%, runup +6.85%, drawdown -6.85%US.MPWR Median projection -0.65, forecast error +5.17%, runup +5.17%, drawdown -5.17%US.SBAC Median projection -0.63, forecast error +1.33%, runup +1.33%, drawdown -1.33%US.AMZN Median projection -0.66, forecast error +7.24%, runup +7.24%, drawdown -7.24%US.STZ Median projection -0.62, forecast error +1.50%, runup +1.50%, drawdown -1.50%US.BF.B Median projection -0.65, forecast error -2.98%, runup -2.98%, drawdown -2.98%US.JBL Median projection -0.31, forecast error +4.73%, runup +4.73%, drawdown -4.73%US.MRVL Median projection -0.58, forecast error +5.34%, runup +5.34%, drawdown -5.34%US.LRCX Median projection -0.36, forecast error +0.93%, runup +0.93%, drawdown -0.93%US.STZ Median projection -0.36, forecast error -0.96%, runup -0.96%, drawdown -0.96%US.JBL Median projection -0.45, forecast error +2.27%, runup +2.27%, drawdown -2.27%US.BLK Median projection -0.01, forecast error +0.14%, runup +0.14%, drawdown -0.14%US.SNDK Median projection -0.19, forecast error -3.28%, runup -3.28%, drawdown -3.28%US.DELL Median projection -0.23, forecast error +1.97%, runup +1.97%, drawdown -1.97%US.JBL Median projection -0.11, forecast error +1.66%, runup +1.66%, drawdown -1.66%US.BLK Median projection 0.1, forecast error -0.33%, runup -0.33%, drawdown -0.33%US.JBL Median projection 0.1, forecast error +5.04%, runup +5.04%, drawdown -5.04%US.AMZN Median projection -0.09, forecast error +0.71%, runup +0.71%, drawdown -0.71%US.A Median projection 0.06, forecast error +1.17%, runup +1.17%, drawdown -1.17%US.MSFT Median projection 0.22, forecast error +1.45%, runup +1.45%, drawdown -1.45%US.ORCL Median projection 0.2, forecast error +4.38%, runup +4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.DASH Median projection 0.07, forecast error +5.41%, runup +5.41%, drawdown -5.41%US.HOOD Median projection 0.42, forecast error +4.11%, runup +4.11%, drawdown -4.11%US.ALB Median projection 0.35, forecast error -8.33%, runup -8.33%, drawdown -8.33%US.ON Median projection 0.33, forecast error +8.40%, runup +8.40%, drawdown -8.40%US.CHRW Median projection 0.25, forecast error +0.87%, runup +0.87%, drawdown -0.87%US.AMD Median projection 0.35, forecast error +1.89%, runup +1.89%, drawdown -1.89%US.A Median projection 0.34, forecast error -1.49%, runup -1.49%, drawdown -1.49%US.JBL Median projection 0.67, forecast error +3.90%, runup +3.90%, drawdown -3.90%US.ADI Median projection 0.59, forecast error +2.09%, runup +2.09%, drawdown -2.09%US.EXPE Median projection 0.55, forecast error -1.02%, runup -1.02%, drawdown -1.02%US.ADI Median projection 0.71, forecast error +5.28%, runup +5.28%, drawdown -5.28%US.JBL Median projection 0.9, forecast error +1.60%, runup +1.60%, drawdown -1.60%US.STLD Median projection 0.56, forecast error +6.94%, runup +6.94%, drawdown -6.94%US.TGT Median projection 0.34, forecast error -0.35%, runup -0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.NTAP Median projection 0.7, forecast error -3.46%, runup -3.46%, drawdown -3.46%US.HPQ Median projection 0.95, forecast error -7.11%, runup -7.11%, drawdown -7.11%US.STLD Median projection 0.7, forecast error +2.29%, runup +2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.NTRS Median projection 0.95, forecast error -5.45%, runup -5.45%, drawdown -5.45%US.GEV Median projection 0.56, forecast error -1.21%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.STLD Median projection 0.4, forecast error -1.46%, runup -1.46%, drawdown -1.46%US.ISRG Median projection 0.32, forecast error -2.93%, runup -2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.MAS Median projection 0.59, forecast error -0.21%, runup -0.21%, drawdown -0.21%US.TXN Median projection 0.6, forecast error -6.70%, runup -6.70%, drawdown -6.70%US.WST Median projection 0.22, forecast error -5.89%, runup -5.89%, drawdown -5.89%US.CSX Median projection 0.37, forecast error -2.43%, runup -2.43%, drawdown -2.43%US.DOV Median projection 0.23, forecast error -1.99%, runup -1.99%, drawdown -1.99%US.QCOM Median projection 0.81, forecast error +3.99%, runup +3.99%, drawdown -3.99%US.BKR Median projection 0.59, forecast error -0.78%, runup -0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.SNPS Median projection 1.06, forecast error -4.97%, runup -4.97%, drawdown -4.97%US.AMD Median projection 1.15, forecast error -4.23%, runup -4.23%, drawdown -4.23%US.ELV Median projection 0.2, forecast error +5.50%, runup +5.50%, drawdown -5.50%US.CNC Median projection 0.19, forecast error +23.24%, runup +23.24%, drawdown -23.24%US.SNDK Median projection 1.09, forecast error +1.37%, runup +1.37%, drawdown -1.37%US.NVDA Median projection 0.67, forecast error -8.54%, runup -8.54%, drawdown -8.54%US.EQR Median projection 0.26, forecast error -0.23%, runup -0.23%, drawdown -0.23%US.CNC Median projection 0.5, forecast error +7.11%, runup +7.11%, drawdown -7.11%US.ESS Median projection 0.26, forecast error -1.95%, runup -1.95%, drawdown -1.95%US.AVB Median projection 0.09, forecast error -0.12%, runup -0.12%, drawdown -0.12%US.CNC Median projection 0.44, forecast error -1.22%, runup -1.22%, drawdown -1.22%US.GNRC Median projection 0.34, forecast error +1.30%, runup +1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.EQR Median projection 0.12, forecast error -0.41%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.NXPI Median projection 0.78, forecast error -0.26%, runup -0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.PWR Median projection 0.09, forecast error +5.93%, runup +5.93%, drawdown -5.93%US.GOOGL Median projection 0.27, forecast error +0.67%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.QCOM Median projection 0.46, forecast error +3.42%, runup +3.42%, drawdown -3.42%US.CAT Median projection 0.09, forecast error +1.54%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.PWR Median projection 0.22, forecast error +5.58%, runup +5.58%, drawdown -5.58%US.FRT Median projection 0.3, forecast error +0.96%, runup +0.96%, drawdown -0.96%US.STX Median projection 0.94, forecast error +7.24%, runup +7.24%, drawdown -7.24%US.SNDK Median projection 0.93, forecast error +17.86%, runup +17.86%, drawdown -17.86%US.CBOE Median projection 0.56, forecast error -0.64%, runup -0.64%, drawdown -0.64%US.TSN Median projection 0.4, forecast error -1.58%, runup -1.58%, drawdown -1.58%US.ADM Median projection 0.44, forecast error +1.21%, runup +1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.PWR Median projection 0.22, forecast error -1.09%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.ADM Median projection 0.36, forecast error -2.29%, runup -2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.SWKS Median projection 0.94, forecast error -8.91%, runup -8.91%, drawdown -8.91%US.DD Median projection 0.27, forecast error +0.79%, runup +0.79%, drawdown -0.79%US.J Median projection 0.2, forecast error -13.47%, runup -13.47%, drawdown -13.47%US.JBL Median projection 0.71, forecast error -2.62%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.DVA Median projection 0.36, forecast error +2.24%, runup +2.24%, drawdown -2.24%US.SMCI Median projection 1.09, forecast error -4.38%, runup -4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.RVTY Median projection 0.36, forecast error -0.50%, runup -0.50%, drawdown -0.50% Bucket avg Median projection -0.3, forecast error +2.94%, n 33Bucket avg Median projection 0.4, forecast error +0.19%, n 87 Corr -0.25 R² 6.1% n 120 Median projection return Actual - median

X = Median projection return. Y = actual - median. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +0.95%

DOE ranking

Ranked by a composite DOE score: lower median/mean absolute error, lower bias, enough anchors, and better IQR coverage.

Rank Horizon n Median abs Mean abs Bias Inside P25/P75 Anchors DOE score
#1 3D 500 2.55% 3.93% +0.95% 50% 120 2.668
#2 3D 120 2.59% 3.96% +1.00% 54.2% 120 2.696
#3 3D 320 2.66% 3.95% +0.96% 50.8% 120 2.73
#4 3D 160 2.67% 3.95% +0.97% 50% 120 2.738
#5 3D 240 2.71% 3.93% +0.93% 51.7% 120 2.741
#6 3D 80 2.59% 4.09% +1.13% 50.8% 120 2.769
#7 3D 40 2.84% 4.12% +1.20% 48.3% 120 2.921
#8 5D 240 3.52% 5.33% +2.79% 53.6% 112 3.91
#9 5D 320 3.64% 5.3% +2.78% 51.8% 112 3.962
#10 5D 500 3.67% 5.29% +2.78% 50% 112 3.978
#11 5D 160 3.64% 5.48% +2.96% 49.1% 112 4.059
#12 5D 120 3.76% 5.54% +3.00% 48.2% 112 4.149
#13 5D 80 3.73% 5.68% +3.23% 50% 112 4.212
#14 5D 40 3.87% 5.86% +3.43% 39.3% 112 4.402
#15 10D 320 6.3% 9.81% +6.03% 43.5% 92 7.379
#16 10D 240 6.37% 9.97% +6.01% 42.4% 92 7.47
#17 10D 500 6.48% 9.76% +6.13% 39.1% 92 7.478
#18 10D 160 6.49% 10.1% +6.00% 44.6% 92 7.568
#19 10D 120 6.79% 10.19% +5.98% 41.3% 92 7.755
#20 10D 80 6.97% 10.59% +6.18% 39.1% 92 8.021
#21 10D 40 7.45% 10.74% +6.38% 37% 92 8.349
#22 15D 120 9.74% 14.01% +9.14% 29.2% 72 11.071
#23 15D 40 9.69% 14.72% +9.13% 27.8% 72 11.297
#24 15D 80 10.16% 14.3% +9.13% 27.8% 72 11.385
#25 15D 160 10.36% 14% +9.23% 29.2% 72 11.391
#26 15D 240 10.77% 13.76% +9.12% 27.8% 72 11.5
#27 15D 320 11.15% 13.67% +9.08% 29.2% 72 11.649
#28 15D 500 11.44% 13.59% +9.07% 29.2% 72 11.764
#29 20D 500 11.34% 18.85% +15.81% 17.3% 52 14.596
#30 20D 320 11.64% 19.04% +15.72% 19.2% 52 14.794