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Rolling projection DOE

Find the projection setup whose median is closest to actual outcomes.

Replay completed anchors and rank horizon × sample-size settings by projection error.

Snapshot 2026-04-24
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-04-24
Window 2026-03-10 → 2026-04-21
Anchors 120
Lookback 730D
Confidence low
Computed at 2026年6月25日 上午5:43 HKT
Point-in-time Point-in-time safe

Best rolling setting

3D · n=120

DOE results snapshot · Window: 2026-03-10 → 2026-04-21 · anchors: 120 · latest snapshot: 2026-04-24 · computed at: 2026年6月25日 上午5:43 HKT

Median abs error2.79%
Mean abs error3.97%
Bias+0.77%
Inside P25/P7548.3%

DOE setting comparison

Same idea as score-vs-outcome analysis: compare each parameter setting by observed actual-minus-median error over rolling completed anchors. Lower median abs error and lower bias win.

Setting Median abs Bias P25/P75 hit n Read
Setting 3D · n=120
Median abs 2.79%
Bias +0.77%
P25/P75 hit 48.3%
n 120
Rank Best setting
Setting 3D · n=160
Median abs 2.91%
Bias +0.77%
P25/P75 hit 46.7%
n 120
Rank #2 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=240
Median abs 2.92%
Bias +0.75%
P25/P75 hit 45.8%
n 120
Rank #3 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=320
Median abs 2.95%
Bias +0.77%
P25/P75 hit 44.2%
n 120
Rank #4 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=80
Median abs 2.87%
Bias +0.87%
P25/P75 hit 45%
n 120
Rank #5 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=500
Median abs 3.07%
Bias +0.76%
P25/P75 hit 43.3%
n 120
Rank #6 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=40
Median abs 3.38%
Bias +0.92%
P25/P75 hit 44.2%
n 120
Rank #7 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=240
Median abs 3.97%
Bias +0.95%
P25/P75 hit 40.2%
n 112
Rank #8 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=320
Median abs 4.05%
Bias +0.88%
P25/P75 hit 39.3%
n 112
Rank #9 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=160
Median abs 4.01%
Bias +1.16%
P25/P75 hit 38.4%
n 112
Rank #10 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=500
Median abs 4.24%
Bias +0.81%
P25/P75 hit 36.6%
n 112
Rank #11 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=120
Median abs 4.18%
Bias +1.26%
P25/P75 hit 37.5%
n 112
Rank #12 Candidate

Best setting 3D · n=120: median projection vs actual return

-2 1 4 -14.00% 0.00% +18.00% US.LYB Median projection -0.05, actual return +10.20%, runup +10.25%, drawdown -10.25%US.DOW Median projection -0.01, actual return +8.06%, runup +8.07%, drawdown -8.07%US.VRT Median projection 0.98, actual return -4.14%, runup -5.12%, drawdown -5.12%US.ADM Median projection -0.31, actual return +3.73%, runup +4.04%, drawdown -4.04%US.EQT Median projection 1.07, actual return +0.75%, runup -0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.SBUX Median projection -0.21, actual return -3.57%, runup -3.36%, drawdown -3.36%US.BG Median projection -0.31, actual return +0.73%, runup +1.04%, drawdown -1.04%US.ADM Median projection 0.3, actual return -0.11%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.LYB Median projection -0.19, actual return -4.21%, runup -4.02%, drawdown -4.02%US.BG Median projection 0.56, actual return +0.10%, runup -0.46%, drawdown -0.46%US.ADM Median projection -0.11, actual return -0.52%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.CF Median projection -0.15, actual return -9.35%, runup -9.20%, drawdown -9.20%US.MOS Median projection 1.66, actual return -5.22%, runup -6.88%, drawdown -6.88%US.CF Median projection 0.16, actual return -2.19%, runup -2.35%, drawdown -2.35%US.ADM Median projection -0.34, actual return -1.54%, runup -1.20%, drawdown -1.20%US.LNT Median projection 0.42, actual return -1.42%, runup -1.84%, drawdown -1.84%US.SNDK Median projection 0.16, actual return +9.73%, runup +9.57%, drawdown -9.57%US.DVN Median projection 0.88, actual return +4.59%, runup +3.71%, drawdown -3.71%US.ED Median projection 0.15, actual return -3.27%, runup -3.42%, drawdown -3.42%US.MU Median projection 0.21, actual return +0.56%, runup +0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.SNDK Median projection -0.11, actual return -1.45%, runup -1.34%, drawdown -1.34%US.WDC Median projection -0.69, actual return -6.60%, runup -5.91%, drawdown -5.91%US.MU Median projection -0.11, actual return -8.40%, runup -8.29%, drawdown -8.29%US.DVN Median projection 0.81, actual return +2.61%, runup +1.80%, drawdown -1.80%US.SNDK Median projection -0.44, actual return -6.79%, runup -6.35%, drawdown -6.35%US.DVN Median projection 0.84, actual return +0.69%, runup -0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.JBL Median projection 0.53, actual return +2.93%, runup +2.40%, drawdown -2.40%US.CIEN Median projection -0.28, actual return +5.88%, runup +6.16%, drawdown -6.16%US.JBL Median projection 0.54, actual return +4.55%, runup +4.01%, drawdown -4.01%US.CIEN Median projection -0.74, actual return +4.07%, runup +4.81%, drawdown -4.81%US.STX Median projection -0.75, actual return -2.22%, runup -1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.SNDK Median projection -0.68, actual return -9.02%, runup -8.34%, drawdown -8.34%US.STX Median projection -0.3, actual return +0.48%, runup +0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.APA Median projection -0.01, actual return +5.65%, runup +5.66%, drawdown -5.66%US.LITE Median projection 0.02, actual return +10.03%, runup +10.01%, drawdown -10.01%US.COP Median projection 0.77, actual return +1.58%, runup +0.81%, drawdown -0.81%US.HAL Median projection 0.9, actual return +3.41%, runup +2.51%, drawdown -2.51%US.JBL Median projection -0.52, actual return -0.79%, runup -0.27%, drawdown -0.27%US.AKAM Median projection -0.39, actual return +2.46%, runup +2.85%, drawdown -2.85%US.CVX Median projection 0.94, actual return +1.26%, runup +0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.FLEX Median projection -0.22, actual return -6.22%, runup -6.00%, drawdown -6.00%US.DELL Median projection -0.67, actual return -2.88%, runup -2.21%, drawdown -2.21%US.LITE Median projection -0.38, actual return -12.38%, runup -12.00%, drawdown -12.00%US.HPE Median projection -0.97, actual return +0.17%, runup +1.14%, drawdown -1.14%US.HPE Median projection 0.62, actual return -12.30%, runup -12.92%, drawdown -12.92%US.CASY Median projection -0.09, actual return -1.32%, runup -1.23%, drawdown -1.23%US.JBL Median projection -0.91, actual return -12.63%, runup -11.72%, drawdown -11.72%US.VRSN Median projection -0.28, actual return -0.81%, runup -0.53%, drawdown -0.53%US.APA Median projection 1.09, actual return -0.84%, runup -1.93%, drawdown -1.93%US.BF.B Median projection 0.3, actual return +2.72%, runup +2.42%, drawdown -2.42%US.FANG Median projection 1.36, actual return -2.18%, runup -3.54%, drawdown -3.54%US.OXY Median projection 1.34, actual return +0.99%, runup -0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.XOM Median projection 1.09, actual return -5.97%, runup -7.06%, drawdown -7.06%US.ETR Median projection 0.12, actual return +3.37%, runup +3.25%, drawdown -3.25%US.APA Median projection 1.49, actual return -6.85%, runup -8.34%, drawdown -8.34%US.BG Median projection 0.17, actual return -0.31%, runup -0.48%, drawdown -0.48%US.LYB Median projection 1.69, actual return -3.37%, runup -5.06%, drawdown -5.06%US.CTVA Median projection 0.57, actual return +3.03%, runup +2.46%, drawdown -2.46%US.NWS Median projection 0.16, actual return -0.74%, runup -0.90%, drawdown -0.90%US.CF Median projection 0.45, actual return -5.55%, runup -6.00%, drawdown -6.00%US.NWS Median projection -0.09, actual return -1.30%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.FDS Median projection 0.51, actual return +6.43%, runup +5.92%, drawdown -5.92%US.NWSA Median projection 0.05, actual return -1.85%, runup -1.90%, drawdown -1.90%US.CASY Median projection -0.62, actual return +2.74%, runup +3.36%, drawdown -3.36%US.CASY Median projection -0.84, actual return +0.63%, runup +1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.MRVL Median projection -0.08, actual return +2.50%, runup +2.58%, drawdown -2.58%US.FDS Median projection -0.51, actual return +1.22%, runup +1.73%, drawdown -1.73%US.ETR Median projection 0.02, actual return +0.26%, runup +0.24%, drawdown -0.24%US.CIEN Median projection -0.85, actual return +10.33%, runup +11.18%, drawdown -11.18%US.INTC Median projection -1.14, actual return +17.01%, runup +18.15%, drawdown -18.15%US.SBAC Median projection 0.28, actual return +7.19%, runup +6.91%, drawdown -6.91%US.LITE Median projection -0.85, actual return +8.36%, runup +9.21%, drawdown -9.21%US.STX Median projection -0.08, actual return +10.47%, runup +10.55%, drawdown -10.55%US.VRSN Median projection -0.67, actual return -1.69%, runup -1.02%, drawdown -1.02%US.MRVL Median projection -0.8, actual return +9.52%, runup +10.32%, drawdown -10.32%US.SBAC Median projection -0.63, actual return +2.84%, runup +3.47%, drawdown -3.47%US.JBL Median projection -0.24, actual return +9.77%, runup +10.01%, drawdown -10.01%US.UNH Median projection -0.65, actual return -1.10%, runup -0.45%, drawdown -0.45%US.PNC Median projection -1.01, actual return +3.37%, runup +4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.HUM Median projection -0.74, actual return -2.54%, runup -1.80%, drawdown -1.80%US.TER Median projection -0.73, actual return +3.30%, runup +4.03%, drawdown -4.03%US.JBL Median projection -1.02, actual return +6.35%, runup +7.37%, drawdown -7.37%US.MPWR Median projection -0.8, actual return +4.52%, runup +5.32%, drawdown -5.32%US.SBAC Median projection -0.66, actual return +0.70%, runup +1.36%, drawdown -1.36%US.AMZN Median projection -0.66, actual return +6.58%, runup +7.24%, drawdown -7.24%US.STZ Median projection -0.66, actual return +0.88%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.BF.B Median projection -1.01, actual return -3.63%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.JBL Median projection -0.36, actual return +4.42%, runup +4.78%, drawdown -4.78%US.MRVL Median projection -1.24, actual return +4.76%, runup +6.00%, drawdown -6.00%US.STZ Median projection -0.93, actual return -1.32%, runup -0.39%, drawdown -0.39%US.LRCX Median projection -0.56, actual return +0.57%, runup +1.13%, drawdown -1.13%US.JBL Median projection -0.73, actual return +1.82%, runup +2.55%, drawdown -2.55%US.BLK Median projection -0.46, actual return +0.13%, runup +0.59%, drawdown -0.59%US.DELL Median projection -0.12, actual return +1.74%, runup +1.86%, drawdown -1.86%US.JBL Median projection 1.78, actual return +1.55%, runup -0.23%, drawdown -0.23%US.SNDK Median projection 1.5, actual return -3.47%, runup -4.97%, drawdown -4.97%US.BLK Median projection -0.57, actual return -0.23%, runup +0.34%, drawdown -0.34%US.JBL Median projection 2.02, actual return +5.14%, runup +3.12%, drawdown -3.12%US.A Median projection -0.79, actual return +1.23%, runup +2.02%, drawdown -2.02%US.AMZN Median projection -0.78, actual return +0.62%, runup +1.40%, drawdown -1.40%US.DASH Median projection -0.66, actual return +5.48%, runup +6.14%, drawdown -6.14%US.ORCL Median projection 1.85, actual return +4.58%, runup +2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.MSFT Median projection 0.85, actual return +1.67%, runup +0.82%, drawdown -0.82%US.HOOD Median projection -0.46, actual return +4.53%, runup +4.99%, drawdown -4.99%US.AMD Median projection 1.57, actual return +2.24%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.ON Median projection 0.56, actual return +8.73%, runup +8.17%, drawdown -8.17%US.ALB Median projection -0.11, actual return -7.98%, runup -7.87%, drawdown -7.87%US.CHRW Median projection -0.79, actual return +1.12%, runup +1.91%, drawdown -1.91%US.A Median projection -0.68, actual return -1.15%, runup -0.47%, drawdown -0.47%US.ADI Median projection 0.95, actual return +2.68%, runup +1.73%, drawdown -1.73%US.EXPE Median projection 0.73, actual return -0.47%, runup -1.20%, drawdown -1.20%US.JBL Median projection 2.15, actual return +4.57%, runup +2.42%, drawdown -2.42%US.TGT Median projection -0.17, actual return -0.01%, runup +0.16%, drawdown -0.16%US.STLD Median projection 0.1, actual return +7.50%, runup +7.40%, drawdown -7.40%US.ADI Median projection 1.39, actual return +5.99%, runup +4.60%, drawdown -4.60%US.JBL Median projection 1.09, actual return +2.50%, runup +1.41%, drawdown -1.41%US.STLD Median projection 0.12, actual return +2.99%, runup +2.87%, drawdown -2.87%US.NTAP Median projection 1.02, actual return -2.76%, runup -3.78%, drawdown -3.78%US.NTRS Median projection 0.32, actual return -4.50%, runup -4.82%, drawdown -4.82%US.HPQ Median projection 1.78, actual return -6.16%, runup -7.94%, drawdown -7.94% Bucket avg Median projection -0.5, actual return +0.86%, n 67Bucket avg Median projection 0.8, actual return +0.66%, n 51Bucket avg Median projection 2.1, actual return +4.86%, n 2 Corr -0.08 R² 0.7% n 120 Median projection return Actual return

X = Median projection return. Y = actual return. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +0.84%

Best setting 3D · n=120: median projection vs forecast error

-2 1 4 -14.00% 0.00% +20.00% US.LYB Median projection -0.05, forecast error +10.25%, runup +10.25%, drawdown -10.25%US.DOW Median projection -0.01, forecast error +8.07%, runup +8.07%, drawdown -8.07%US.VRT Median projection 0.98, forecast error -5.12%, runup -5.12%, drawdown -5.12%US.ADM Median projection -0.31, forecast error +4.04%, runup +4.04%, drawdown -4.04%US.EQT Median projection 1.07, forecast error -0.32%, runup -0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.SBUX Median projection -0.21, forecast error -3.36%, runup -3.36%, drawdown -3.36%US.BG Median projection -0.31, forecast error +1.04%, runup +1.04%, drawdown -1.04%US.ADM Median projection 0.3, forecast error -0.41%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.LYB Median projection -0.19, forecast error -4.02%, runup -4.02%, drawdown -4.02%US.BG Median projection 0.56, forecast error -0.46%, runup -0.46%, drawdown -0.46%US.ADM Median projection -0.11, forecast error -0.41%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.CF Median projection -0.15, forecast error -9.20%, runup -9.20%, drawdown -9.20%US.MOS Median projection 1.66, forecast error -6.88%, runup -6.88%, drawdown -6.88%US.CF Median projection 0.16, forecast error -2.35%, runup -2.35%, drawdown -2.35%US.ADM Median projection -0.34, forecast error -1.20%, runup -1.20%, drawdown -1.20%US.LNT Median projection 0.42, forecast error -1.84%, runup -1.84%, drawdown -1.84%US.SNDK Median projection 0.16, forecast error +9.57%, runup +9.57%, drawdown -9.57%US.DVN Median projection 0.88, forecast error +3.71%, runup +3.71%, drawdown -3.71%US.ED Median projection 0.15, forecast error -3.42%, runup -3.42%, drawdown -3.42%US.MU Median projection 0.21, forecast error +0.35%, runup +0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.SNDK Median projection -0.11, forecast error -1.34%, runup -1.34%, drawdown -1.34%US.WDC Median projection -0.69, forecast error -5.91%, runup -5.91%, drawdown -5.91%US.MU Median projection -0.11, forecast error -8.29%, runup -8.29%, drawdown -8.29%US.DVN Median projection 0.81, forecast error +1.80%, runup +1.80%, drawdown -1.80%US.SNDK Median projection -0.44, forecast error -6.35%, runup -6.35%, drawdown -6.35%US.DVN Median projection 0.84, forecast error -0.15%, runup -0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.JBL Median projection 0.53, forecast error +2.40%, runup +2.40%, drawdown -2.40%US.CIEN Median projection -0.28, forecast error +6.16%, runup +6.16%, drawdown -6.16%US.JBL Median projection 0.54, forecast error +4.01%, runup +4.01%, drawdown -4.01%US.CIEN Median projection -0.74, forecast error +4.81%, runup +4.81%, drawdown -4.81%US.STX Median projection -0.75, forecast error -1.47%, runup -1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.SNDK Median projection -0.68, forecast error -8.34%, runup -8.34%, drawdown -8.34%US.STX Median projection -0.3, forecast error +0.78%, runup +0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.APA Median projection -0.01, forecast error +5.66%, runup +5.66%, drawdown -5.66%US.LITE Median projection 0.02, forecast error +10.01%, runup +10.01%, drawdown -10.01%US.COP Median projection 0.77, forecast error +0.81%, runup +0.81%, drawdown -0.81%US.HAL Median projection 0.9, forecast error +2.51%, runup +2.51%, drawdown -2.51%US.JBL Median projection -0.52, forecast error -0.27%, runup -0.27%, drawdown -0.27%US.AKAM Median projection -0.39, forecast error +2.85%, runup +2.85%, drawdown -2.85%US.CVX Median projection 0.94, forecast error +0.32%, runup +0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.FLEX Median projection -0.22, forecast error -6.00%, runup -6.00%, drawdown -6.00%US.DELL Median projection -0.67, forecast error -2.21%, runup -2.21%, drawdown -2.21%US.LITE Median projection -0.38, forecast error -12.00%, runup -12.00%, drawdown -12.00%US.HPE Median projection -0.97, forecast error +1.14%, runup +1.14%, drawdown -1.14%US.HPE Median projection 0.62, forecast error -12.92%, runup -12.92%, drawdown -12.92%US.CASY Median projection -0.09, forecast error -1.23%, runup -1.23%, drawdown -1.23%US.JBL Median projection -0.91, forecast error -11.72%, runup -11.72%, drawdown -11.72%US.VRSN Median projection -0.28, forecast error -0.53%, runup -0.53%, drawdown -0.53%US.APA Median projection 1.09, forecast error -1.93%, runup -1.93%, drawdown -1.93%US.BF.B Median projection 0.3, forecast error +2.42%, runup +2.42%, drawdown -2.42%US.FANG Median projection 1.36, forecast error -3.54%, runup -3.54%, drawdown -3.54%US.OXY Median projection 1.34, forecast error -0.35%, runup -0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.XOM Median projection 1.09, forecast error -7.06%, runup -7.06%, drawdown -7.06%US.ETR Median projection 0.12, forecast error +3.25%, runup +3.25%, drawdown -3.25%US.APA Median projection 1.49, forecast error -8.34%, runup -8.34%, drawdown -8.34%US.BG Median projection 0.17, forecast error -0.48%, runup -0.48%, drawdown -0.48%US.LYB Median projection 1.69, forecast error -5.06%, runup -5.06%, drawdown -5.06%US.CTVA Median projection 0.57, forecast error +2.46%, runup +2.46%, drawdown -2.46%US.NWS Median projection 0.16, forecast error -0.90%, runup -0.90%, drawdown -0.90%US.CF Median projection 0.45, forecast error -6.00%, runup -6.00%, drawdown -6.00%US.NWS Median projection -0.09, forecast error -1.21%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.FDS Median projection 0.51, forecast error +5.92%, runup +5.92%, drawdown -5.92%US.NWSA Median projection 0.05, forecast error -1.90%, runup -1.90%, drawdown -1.90%US.CASY Median projection -0.62, forecast error +3.36%, runup +3.36%, drawdown -3.36%US.CASY Median projection -0.84, forecast error +1.47%, runup +1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.MRVL Median projection -0.08, forecast error +2.58%, runup +2.58%, drawdown -2.58%US.FDS Median projection -0.51, forecast error +1.73%, runup +1.73%, drawdown -1.73%US.ETR Median projection 0.02, forecast error +0.24%, runup +0.24%, drawdown -0.24%US.CIEN Median projection -0.85, forecast error +11.18%, runup +11.18%, drawdown -11.18%US.INTC Median projection -1.14, forecast error +18.15%, runup +18.15%, drawdown -18.15%US.SBAC Median projection 0.28, forecast error +6.91%, runup +6.91%, drawdown -6.91%US.LITE Median projection -0.85, forecast error +9.21%, runup +9.21%, drawdown -9.21%US.STX Median projection -0.08, forecast error +10.55%, runup +10.55%, drawdown -10.55%US.VRSN Median projection -0.67, forecast error -1.02%, runup -1.02%, drawdown -1.02%US.MRVL Median projection -0.8, forecast error +10.32%, runup +10.32%, drawdown -10.32%US.SBAC Median projection -0.63, forecast error +3.47%, runup +3.47%, drawdown -3.47%US.JBL Median projection -0.24, forecast error +10.01%, runup +10.01%, drawdown -10.01%US.UNH Median projection -0.65, forecast error -0.45%, runup -0.45%, drawdown -0.45%US.PNC Median projection -1.01, forecast error +4.38%, runup +4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.HUM Median projection -0.74, forecast error -1.80%, runup -1.80%, drawdown -1.80%US.TER Median projection -0.73, forecast error +4.03%, runup +4.03%, drawdown -4.03%US.JBL Median projection -1.02, forecast error +7.37%, runup +7.37%, drawdown -7.37%US.MPWR Median projection -0.8, forecast error +5.32%, runup +5.32%, drawdown -5.32%US.SBAC Median projection -0.66, forecast error +1.36%, runup +1.36%, drawdown -1.36%US.AMZN Median projection -0.66, forecast error +7.24%, runup +7.24%, drawdown -7.24%US.STZ Median projection -0.66, forecast error +1.54%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.BF.B Median projection -1.01, forecast error -2.62%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.JBL Median projection -0.36, forecast error +4.78%, runup +4.78%, drawdown -4.78%US.MRVL Median projection -1.24, forecast error +6.00%, runup +6.00%, drawdown -6.00%US.STZ Median projection -0.93, forecast error -0.39%, runup -0.39%, drawdown -0.39%US.LRCX Median projection -0.56, forecast error +1.13%, runup +1.13%, drawdown -1.13%US.JBL Median projection -0.73, forecast error +2.55%, runup +2.55%, drawdown -2.55%US.BLK Median projection -0.46, forecast error +0.59%, runup +0.59%, drawdown -0.59%US.DELL Median projection -0.12, forecast error +1.86%, runup +1.86%, drawdown -1.86%US.JBL Median projection 1.78, forecast error -0.23%, runup -0.23%, drawdown -0.23%US.SNDK Median projection 1.5, forecast error -4.97%, runup -4.97%, drawdown -4.97%US.BLK Median projection -0.57, forecast error +0.34%, runup +0.34%, drawdown -0.34%US.JBL Median projection 2.02, forecast error +3.12%, runup +3.12%, drawdown -3.12%US.A Median projection -0.79, forecast error +2.02%, runup +2.02%, drawdown -2.02%US.AMZN Median projection -0.78, forecast error +1.40%, runup +1.40%, drawdown -1.40%US.DASH Median projection -0.66, forecast error +6.14%, runup +6.14%, drawdown -6.14%US.ORCL Median projection 1.85, forecast error +2.73%, runup +2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.MSFT Median projection 0.85, forecast error +0.82%, runup +0.82%, drawdown -0.82%US.HOOD Median projection -0.46, forecast error +4.99%, runup +4.99%, drawdown -4.99%US.AMD Median projection 1.57, forecast error +0.67%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.ON Median projection 0.56, forecast error +8.17%, runup +8.17%, drawdown -8.17%US.ALB Median projection -0.11, forecast error -7.87%, runup -7.87%, drawdown -7.87%US.CHRW Median projection -0.79, forecast error +1.91%, runup +1.91%, drawdown -1.91%US.A Median projection -0.68, forecast error -0.47%, runup -0.47%, drawdown -0.47%US.ADI Median projection 0.95, forecast error +1.73%, runup +1.73%, drawdown -1.73%US.EXPE Median projection 0.73, forecast error -1.20%, runup -1.20%, drawdown -1.20%US.JBL Median projection 2.15, forecast error +2.42%, runup +2.42%, drawdown -2.42%US.TGT Median projection -0.17, forecast error +0.16%, runup +0.16%, drawdown -0.16%US.STLD Median projection 0.1, forecast error +7.40%, runup +7.40%, drawdown -7.40%US.ADI Median projection 1.39, forecast error +4.60%, runup +4.60%, drawdown -4.60%US.JBL Median projection 1.09, forecast error +1.41%, runup +1.41%, drawdown -1.41%US.STLD Median projection 0.12, forecast error +2.87%, runup +2.87%, drawdown -2.87%US.NTAP Median projection 1.02, forecast error -3.78%, runup -3.78%, drawdown -3.78%US.NTRS Median projection 0.32, forecast error -4.82%, runup -4.82%, drawdown -4.82%US.HPQ Median projection 1.78, forecast error -7.94%, runup -7.94%, drawdown -7.94% Bucket avg Median projection -0.5, forecast error +1.38%, n 67Bucket avg Median projection 0.8, forecast error -0.10%, n 51Bucket avg Median projection 2.1, forecast error +2.77%, n 2 Corr -0.23 R² 5.5% n 120 Median projection return Actual - median

X = Median projection return. Y = actual - median. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +0.77%

DOE ranking

Ranked by a composite DOE score: lower median/mean absolute error, lower bias, enough anchors, and better IQR coverage.

Rank Horizon n Median abs Mean abs Bias Inside P25/P75 Anchors DOE score
#1 3D 120 2.79% 3.97% +0.77% 48.3% 120 2.779
#2 3D 160 2.91% 3.96% +0.77% 46.7% 120 2.84
#3 3D 240 2.92% 3.95% +0.75% 45.8% 120 2.841
#4 3D 320 2.95% 3.97% +0.77% 44.2% 120 2.87
#5 3D 80 2.87% 4.06% +0.87% 45% 120 2.874
#6 3D 500 3.07% 3.97% +0.76% 43.3% 120 2.93
#7 3D 40 3.38% 4.16% +0.92% 44.2% 120 3.173
#8 5D 240 3.97% 5.79% +0.95% 40.2% 112 4.053
#9 5D 320 4.05% 5.82% +0.88% 39.3% 112 4.096
#10 5D 160 4.01% 5.91% +1.16% 38.4% 112 4.151
#11 5D 500 4.24% 5.84% +0.81% 36.6% 112 4.194
#12 5D 120 4.18% 5.97% +1.26% 37.5% 112 4.275
#13 5D 80 4.28% 6.08% +1.48% 38.4% 112 4.394
#14 5D 40 4.74% 6.41% +1.51% 32.1% 112 4.76
#15 10D 500 6.76% 8.7% +2.96% 40.2% 92 6.768
#16 10D 240 6.71% 8.91% +3.24% 41.3% 92 6.856
#17 10D 320 6.87% 8.8% +3.06% 41.3% 92 6.871
#18 10D 160 6.84% 9.24% +3.38% 39.1% 92 7.063
#19 10D 120 6.79% 9.28% +3.45% 38% 92 7.066
#20 10D 80 6.95% 9.38% +3.70% 35.9% 92 7.223
#21 10D 40 7.46% 9.64% +3.83% 33.7% 92 7.594
#22 15D 500 8.46% 10.46% +4.37% 33.3% 72 8.463
#23 15D 320 8.46% 10.62% +4.38% 36.1% 72 8.514
#24 15D 240 8.34% 10.79% +4.47% 36.1% 72 8.527
#25 15D 160 8.29% 10.97% +4.46% 34.7% 72 8.567
#26 15D 120 8.7% 10.95% +4.20% 33.3% 72 8.729
#27 15D 40 8.52% 11.62% +4.19% 36.1% 72 8.865
#28 15D 80 9% 11.23% +4.31% 33.3% 72 8.994
#29 20D 500 10.53% 12.63% +6.49% 34.6% 52 10.573
#30 20D 240 10.39% 13% +6.16% 30.8% 52 10.592