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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=80 · horizon 3D · 自訂篩選生效 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

healthy · 2026-08-14

Computed at 2026年8月17日 上午7:46 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Projection candidates 9

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=80

As-of 2026-08-14

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-08-14
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-08-14
DOE window 2026-06-18 → 2026-08-10
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年8月17日 上午7:46 HKT
Rows 9
Excluded downtrends 4
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau 3.2–3.7

OOS n=513 Median 0.67%

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau 3.2–3.7

+0.67% OOS median · n=513

Best holding day 3D

3 - 3.5 · +34.48% ann. net · n=1080

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -3%

5+ · +0.27% exp · 43D WF

Opp study rows 27,302 with outcomes

1,507 awaiting horizon End 2026-08-14

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日套用與本頁相同篩選；列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

共 24 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

2026-08-14

9 檔
  1. #1 MMM P75+2.40% 上漲比65% Up/Dn10% / 0% Opp3.614 開富途
  2. #2 UNH P75+3.62% 上漲比65% Up/Dn16.3% / 3.8% Opp3.439 開富途
  3. #3 DELL P75+5.12% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 17.5% Opp3.386 開富途
  4. #4 TRV P75+3.23% 上漲比65% Up/Dn13.8% / 2.5% Opp3.374 開富途
  5. #5 MGM P75+2.93% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn16.3% / 1.3% Opp3.36 開富途
  6. #6 URI P75+2.40% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn10% / 0% Opp3.332 開富途
  7. #7 DVA P75+4.75% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 8.8% Opp3.274 開富途
  8. #8 FIX P75+3.70% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn20% / 10% Opp3.239 開富途
  9. #9 BG P75+3.64% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Opp3.204 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.MMM P75+2.40% 上漲比65% Up/Dn10% / 0% Opp3.614 開富途
  2. #2 US.UNH 研究門檻符合 P75+3.62% 上漲比65% Up/Dn16.3% / 3.8% Opp3.439 開富途
  3. #3 US.DELL P75+5.12% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 17.5% Opp3.386 開富途
  4. #4 US.TRV P75+3.23% 上漲比65% Up/Dn13.8% / 2.5% Opp3.374 開富途
  5. #5 US.MGM P75+2.93% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn16.3% / 1.3% Opp3.36 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

Auto Opp band from Opp study best stable plateau: 3.2–3.7 (half-open upper bound). Clear Min/Max Opp and apply to show all.

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.MMM 3M · Industrials

+1.33%

P75+2.40% 上漲比65% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score64.6 Opp3.614
View chart 開富途
#2 US.UNH UnitedHealth Group · Health Care

+1.23%

P75+3.62% 上漲比65% Up/Dn16.3% / 3.8% Score44.2 Opp3.439
View chart 開富途
#3 US.DELL Dell Technologies · Information Technology

+1.62%

P75+5.12% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 17.5% Score71.5 Opp3.386
View chart 開富途
#4 US.TRV Travelers Companies (The) · Financials

+1.09%

P75+3.23% 上漲比65% Up/Dn13.8% / 2.5% Score56.9 Opp3.374
View chart 開富途
#5 US.MGM MGM Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

+1.36%

P75+2.93% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn16.3% / 1.3% Score46.1 Opp3.36
View chart 開富途
#6 US.URI United Rentals · Industrials

+1.25%

P75+2.40% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score64.2 Opp3.332
View chart 開富途
#7 US.DVA DaVita · Health Care

+1.27%

P75+4.75% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 8.8% Score46 Opp3.274
View chart 開富途
#8 US.FIX Comfort Systems USA · Industrials

+1.05%

P75+3.70% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn20% / 10% Score61.9 Opp3.239
View chart 開富途
#9 US.BG Bunge Global · Consumer Staples

+1.08%

P75+3.64% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score61.3 Opp3.204
View chart 開富途