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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=80 · horizon 3D · 自訂篩選生效 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

healthy · 2026-08-12

Computed at 2026年8月13日 上午7:51 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Projection candidates 7

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=80

As-of 2026-08-12

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-08-12
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-08-12
DOE window 2026-06-17 → 2026-08-05
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年8月13日 上午7:51 HKT
Rows 7
Excluded downtrends 2
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau 3.2–3.7

OOS n=471 Median 0.47%

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau 3.2–3.7

+0.47% OOS median · n=471

Best holding day 3D

3 - 3.5 · +34.48% ann. net · n=987

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -3%

5+ · +0.24% exp · 40D WF

Opp study rows 26,726 with outcomes

1,507 awaiting horizon End 2026-08-12

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日套用與本頁相同篩選；列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

共 24 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

2026-08-07

9 檔
  1. #1 EIX P75+4.97% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn25% / 7.5% Opp3.675 開富途
  2. #2 ABBV P75+3.98% 上漲比65% Up/Dn20% / 2.5% Opp3.608 開富途
  3. #3 CVS P75+4.26% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn20% / 1.3% Opp3.6 開富途
  4. #4 VTRS P75+5.66% 上漲比60% Up/Dn30% / 1.3% Opp3.593 開富途
  5. #5 VRTX P75+2.92% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 1.3% Opp3.573 開富途
  6. #6 ALGN P75+5.06% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn26.3% / 2.5% Opp3.549 開富途
  7. #7 DD P75+4.18% 上漲比65% Up/Dn21.3% / 8.8% Opp3.519 開富途
  8. #8 JBHT P75+3.81% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 2.5% Opp3.444 開富途
  9. #9 HUM P75+3.68% 上漲比60% Up/Dn16.3% / 6.3% Opp3.311 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.LLY P75+2.88% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Opp3.658 開富途
  2. #2 US.ADM P75+3.72% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Opp3.605 開富途
  3. #3 US.INCY P75+3.73% 上漲比65% Up/Dn18.8% / 2.5% Opp3.578 開富途
  4. #4 US.DVA P75+4.70% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn23.8% / 5% Opp3.53 開富途
  5. #5 US.ROK P75+4.89% 上漲比65% Up/Dn25% / 5% Opp3.507 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

Auto Opp band from Opp study best stable plateau: 3.2–3.7 (half-open upper bound). Clear Min/Max Opp and apply to show all.

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.LLY Lilly (Eli) · Health Care

+1.37%

P75+2.88% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Score72.2 Opp3.658
View chart 開富途
#2 US.ADM Archer Daniels Midland · Consumer Staples

+1.23%

P75+3.72% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Score55.9 Opp3.605
View chart 開富途
#3 US.INCY Incyte · Health Care

+1.15%

P75+3.73% 上漲比65% Up/Dn18.8% / 2.5% Score59.4 Opp3.578
View chart 開富途
#4 US.DVA DaVita · Health Care

+1.36%

P75+4.70% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn23.8% / 5% Score52.1 Opp3.53
View chart 開富途
#5 US.ROK Rockwell Automation · Industrials

+0.95%

P75+4.89% 上漲比65% Up/Dn25% / 5% Score57.9 Opp3.507
View chart 開富途
#6 US.MCK McKesson Corporation · Health Care

+1.04%

P75+3.05% 上漲比65% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score79.8 Opp3.451
View chart 開富途
#7 US.MGM MGM Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

+1.23%

P75+3.31% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn20% / 1.3% Score44.6 Opp3.314
View chart 開富途