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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=80 · horizon 3D · 自訂篩選生效 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

healthy · 2026-08-11

Computed at 2026年8月12日 上午7:46 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Projection candidates 4

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=80

As-of 2026-08-11

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-08-11
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-08-11
DOE window 2026-06-17 → 2026-08-05
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年8月12日 上午7:46 HKT
Rows 4
Excluded downtrends 5
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau 3.2–3.7

OOS n=453 Median 0.47%

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau 3.2–3.7

+0.47% OOS median · n=453

Best holding day 3D

3 - 3.5 · +31.96% ann. net · n=972

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -3%

5+ · +0.25% exp · 39D WF

Opp study rows 26,433 with outcomes

1,507 awaiting horizon End 2026-08-11

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日套用與本頁相同篩選；列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

共 18 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

2026-08-07

9 檔
  1. #1 EIX P75+4.97% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn25% / 7.5% Opp3.675 開富途
  2. #2 GWW P75+3.70% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn16.3% / 1.3% Opp3.67 開富途
  3. #3 HON P75+3.11% 上漲比65% Up/Dn12.5% / 1.3% Opp3.629 開富途
  4. #4 VTRS P75+5.66% 上漲比60% Up/Dn30% / 1.3% Opp3.593 開富途
  5. #5 ALGN P75+5.06% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn26.3% / 2.5% Opp3.549 開富途
  6. #6 HUM P75+3.68% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn16.3% / 6.3% Opp3.536 開富途
  7. #7 DD P75+4.18% 上漲比65% Up/Dn21.3% / 8.8% Opp3.519 開富途
  8. #8 CVS P75+4.26% 上漲比60% Up/Dn20% / 1.3% Opp3.386 開富途
  9. #9 JBHT P75+3.70% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 2.5% Opp3.377 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.AXP P75+3.19% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn10% / 0% Opp3.542 開富途
  2. #2 US.DD P75+4.63% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn21.3% / 10% Opp3.511 開富途
  3. #3 US.MRNA P75+4.00% 上漲比58.8% Up/Dn17.5% / 3.8% Opp3.347 開富途
  4. #4 US.IVZ P75+4.06% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn20% / 6.3% Opp3.277 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

Auto Opp band from Opp study best stable plateau: 3.2–3.7 (half-open upper bound). Clear Min/Max Opp and apply to show all.

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.AXP American Express · Financials

+1.02%

P75+3.19% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score56.1 Opp3.542
View chart 開富途
#2 US.DD DuPont · Materials

+1.17%

P75+4.63% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn21.3% / 10% Score63.9 Opp3.511
View chart 開富途
#3 US.MRNA Moderna · Health Care

+1.34%

P75+4.00% 上漲比58.8% Up/Dn17.5% / 3.8% Score70.8 Opp3.347
View chart 開富途
#4 US.IVZ Invesco · Financials

+1.17%

P75+4.06% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn20% / 6.3% Score62.7 Opp3.277
View chart 開富途