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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=80 · horizon 3D · 自訂篩選生效 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

healthy · 2026-08-06

Computed at 2026年8月7日 上午7:48 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Projection candidates 5

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=80

As-of 2026-08-06

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-08-06
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-08-06
DOE window 2026-06-15 → 2026-07-31
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年8月7日 上午7:48 HKT
Rows 5
Excluded downtrends 7
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau 3.0–3.5

OOS n=591 Median 0.99%

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau 3.0–3.5

+0.99% OOS median · n=591

Best holding day 3D

3 - 3.5 · +44.56% ann. net · n=942

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -3%

5+ · +0.22% exp · 44D WF

Opp study rows 26,258 with outcomes

1,507 awaiting horizon End 2026-08-06

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日套用與本頁相同篩選；列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

共 17 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.DE P75+3.59% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn13.8% / 3.8% Opp3.497 開富途
  2. #2 US.JNJ P75+3.79% 上漲比60% Up/Dn12.5% / 1.3% Opp3.291 開富途
  3. #3 US.VRTX P75+2.76% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15% / 3.8% Opp3.239 開富途
  4. #4 US.JBHT P75+4.06% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn20% / 3.8% Opp3.194 開富途
  5. #5 US.INCY P75+4.37% 上漲比58.8% Up/Dn20% / 2.5% Opp3.094 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

Auto Opp band from Opp study best stable plateau: 3.0–3.5 (half-open upper bound). Clear Min/Max Opp and apply to show all.

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.DE Deere & Company · Industrials

+1.30%

P75+3.59% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn13.8% / 3.8% Score56.5 Opp3.497
View chart 開富途
#2 US.JNJ Johnson & Johnson · Health Care

+1.17%

P75+3.79% 上漲比60% Up/Dn12.5% / 1.3% Score60.2 Opp3.291
View chart 開富途
#3 US.VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

+1.28%

P75+2.76% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15% / 3.8% Score66.3 Opp3.239
View chart 開富途
#4 US.JBHT J.B. Hunt · Industrials

+1.15%

P75+4.06% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn20% / 3.8% Score47.1 Opp3.194
View chart 開富途
#5 US.INCY Incyte · Health Care

+1.00%

P75+4.37% 上漲比58.8% Up/Dn20% / 2.5% Score59.7 Opp3.094
View chart 開富途