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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=80 · horizon 3D · 自訂篩選生效 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

healthy · 2026-08-05

Computed at 2026年8月6日 上午7:46 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Projection candidates 2

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=80

As-of 2026-08-05

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-08-05
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-08-05
DOE window 2026-06-15 → 2026-07-31
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年8月6日 上午7:46 HKT
Rows 2
Excluded downtrends 5
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau 3.0–3.5

OOS n=593 Median 1.1%

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau 3.0–3.5

+1.1% OOS median · n=593

Best holding day 3D

3 - 3.5 · +44.56% ann. net · n=926

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -3%

5+ · +0.38% exp · 45D WF

Opp study rows 26,276 with outcomes

1,508 awaiting horizon End 2026-08-05

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日套用與本頁相同篩選；列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

共 15 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.TXT P75+4.65% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn23.8% / 8.8% Opp3.338 開富途
  2. #2 US.DE P75+3.59% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Opp3.095 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

Auto Opp band from Opp study best stable plateau: 3.0–3.5 (half-open upper bound). Clear Min/Max Opp and apply to show all.

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.TXT Textron · Industrials

+1.37%

P75+4.65% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn23.8% / 8.8% Score57.2 Opp3.338
View chart 開富途
#2 US.DE Deere & Company · Industrials

+0.82%

P75+3.59% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score56.5 Opp3.095
View chart 開富途