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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 自訂篩選生效 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

healthy · 2026-08-03

Computed at 2026年8月4日 上午7:47 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Projection candidates 6

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=40

As-of 2026-08-03

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-08-03
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-08-03
DOE window 2026-06-11 → 2026-07-29
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年8月4日 上午7:47 HKT
Rows 6
Excluded downtrends 3
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau 3.0–3.5

OOS n=560 Median 1.02%

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau 3.0–3.5

+1.02% OOS median · n=560

Best holding day 3D

3 - 3.5 · +41.2% ann. net · n=885

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -3%

5+ · +0.48% exp · 45D WF

Opp study rows 26,018 with outcomes

1,507 awaiting horizon End 2026-08-03

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日套用與本頁相同篩選；列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

共 18 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.TMO P75+3.66% 上漲比60% Up/Dn17.5% / 0% Opp3.43 開富途
  2. #2 US.AXP P75+2.42% 上漲比65% Up/Dn10% / 0% Opp3.294 開富途
  3. #3 US.A P75+3.14% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Opp3.088 開富途
  4. #4 US.GS P75+5.68% 上漲比60% Up/Dn27.5% / 15% Opp3.056 開富途
  5. #5 US.DD P75+3.88% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 7.5% Opp3.01 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

Auto Opp band from Opp study best stable plateau: 3.0–3.5 (half-open upper bound). Clear Min/Max Opp and apply to show all.

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific · Health Care

+1.16%

P75+3.66% 上漲比60% Up/Dn17.5% / 0% Score74 Opp3.43
View chart 開富途
#2 US.AXP American Express · Financials

+0.98%

P75+2.42% 上漲比65% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score67.8 Opp3.294
View chart 開富途
#3 US.A Agilent Technologies · Health Care

+0.76%

P75+3.14% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score72.4 Opp3.088
View chart 開富途
#4 US.GS Goldman Sachs · Financials

+1.40%

P75+5.68% 上漲比60% Up/Dn27.5% / 15% Score44.8 Opp3.056
View chart 開富途
#5 US.DD DuPont · Materials

+1.45%

P75+3.88% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 7.5% Score58.7 Opp3.01
View chart 開富途
#6 US.MGM MGM Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

+1.16%

P75+3.55% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score47.2 Opp3.002
View chart 開富途