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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=500 · horizon 3D · 自訂篩選生效 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

healthy · 2026-07-15

Computed at 2026年7月29日 下午9:12 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Projection candidates 8

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=500

As-of 2026-07-15

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-07-15
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-07-15
DOE window 2026-05-28 → 2026-07-10
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年7月29日 下午9:12 HKT
Rows 8
Excluded downtrends 9
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau n/a

not ready

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau n/a

n/a

Best holding day 10D

+18.44% ann. net · n=26111

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -3%

5+ · -0.03% exp · 63D WF

Opp study rows 28,275 with outcomes

1,509 awaiting horizon End 2026-07-15

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日套用與本頁相同篩選；列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

共 27 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

2026-07-10

10 檔
  1. #1 BIIB P75+3.94% 上漲比64% Up/Dn17.8% / 4.8% Opp3.478 開富途
  2. #2 IRM P75+3.60% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn15.8% / 5.4% Opp3.309 開富途
  3. #3 SOLV P75+3.86% 上漲比61.2% Up/Dn17% / 6.2% Opp3 開富途
  4. #4 KLAC P75+5.12% 上漲比55.2% Up/Dn25.4% / 14.4% Opp1.843 開富途
  5. #5 TPR P75+3.26% 上漲比55% Up/Dn16.2% / 5.4% Opp1.81 開富途
  6. #6 ALGN P75+2.96% 上漲比54.4% Up/Dn14% / 3.4% Opp1.728 開富途
  7. #7 CNC P75+2.83% 上漲比54.4% Up/Dn13.6% / 3.6% Opp1.697 開富途
  8. #8 COHR P75+4.79% 上漲比55% Up/Dn24.6% / 14.2% Opp1.688 開富途
  9. #9 MRVL P75+4.98% 上漲比54.6% Up/Dn25% / 14.4% Opp1.686 開富途
  10. #10 LRCX P75+5.32% 上漲比53.4% Up/Dn26% / 16% Opp1.53 開富途

2026-07-13

11 檔
  1. #1 VRTX P75+3.42% 上漲比63.4% Up/Dn14.2% / 3.4% Opp3.338 開富途
  2. #2 TPR P75+3.56% 上漲比60.6% Up/Dn16.8% / 3.8% Opp2.817 開富途
  3. #3 SOLV P75+3.59% 上漲比59.2% Up/Dn16% / 5.4% Opp2.671 開富途
  4. #4 MRNA P75+3.45% 上漲比60.2% Up/Dn16.4% / 5.8% Opp2.668 開富途
  5. #5 ALGN P75+3.15% 上漲比58.4% Up/Dn15.4% / 4.4% Opp2.48 開富途
  6. #6 WSM P75+3.33% 上漲比57.8% Up/Dn15.2% / 4.6% Opp2.273 開富途
  7. #7 RVTY P75+2.90% 上漲比57% Up/Dn13.6% / 3.2% Opp2.171 開富途
  8. #8 LLY P75+3.12% 上漲比56.4% Up/Dn13.8% / 3.2% Opp2.132 開富途
  9. #9 PANW P75+5.70% 上漲比55.6% Up/Dn27.4% / 15.4% Opp1.954 開富途
  10. #10 MPWR P75+4.52% 上漲比54.6% Up/Dn24.2% / 14% Opp1.615 開富途
  11. #11 QCOM P75+4.76% 上漲比54% Up/Dn24.4% / 14.2% Opp1.525 開富途

2026-07-14

14 檔
  1. #1 MRK P75+3.63% 上漲比66.2% Up/Dn15.8% / 3.2% Opp3.735 開富途
  2. #2 MRNA P75+4.09% 上漲比64.8% Up/Dn19.8% / 6.8% Opp3.726 開富途
  3. #3 EW P75+3.63% 上漲比66% Up/Dn16% / 3.2% Opp3.725 開富途
  4. #4 LLY P75+3.83% 上漲比63% Up/Dn17% / 5.6% Opp3.386 開富途
  5. #5 VRTX P75+3.46% 上漲比62.4% Up/Dn13.8% / 3.4% Opp3.273 開富途
  6. #6 SOLV P75+3.75% 上漲比62.2% Up/Dn17% / 4.6% Opp3.188 開富途
  7. #7 BIIB P75+3.59% 上漲比62% Up/Dn15.2% / 3.4% Opp3.123 開富途
  8. #8 PWR P75+3.42% 上漲比62.4% Up/Dn13.8% / 3% Opp3.013 開富途
  9. #9 RVTY P75+3.42% 上漲比60% Up/Dn15.4% / 3% Opp2.862 開富途
  10. #10 ALGN P75+3.59% 上漲比59.8% Up/Dn16.2% / 4.6% Opp2.786 開富途
  11. #11 RL P75+3.60% 上漲比60% Up/Dn16.8% / 5% Opp2.685 開富途
  12. #12 TSLA P75+3.30% 上漲比58.6% Up/Dn16% / 4.6% Opp2.324 開富途
  13. #13 TPR P75+3.45% 上漲比58.2% Up/Dn18% / 5% Opp2.27 開富途
  14. #14 CNC P75+2.96% 上漲比57.2% Up/Dn12.2% / 2.2% Opp2.219 開富途

2026-07-15

8 檔
  1. #1 MRNA P75+3.87% 上漲比62.8% Up/Dn18% / 6.4% Opp3.381 開富途
  2. #2 VRTX P75+3.59% 上漲比62.6% Up/Dn13.4% / 3% Opp3.349 開富途
  3. #3 LLY P75+3.74% 上漲比62.2% Up/Dn16.8% / 4% Opp3.194 開富途
  4. #4 EW P75+3.30% 上漲比61.8% Up/Dn12.8% / 2.4% Opp3.167 開富途
  5. #5 BIIB P75+3.59% 上漲比62% Up/Dn14.4% / 4% Opp3.077 開富途
  6. #6 EME P75+3.34% 上漲比63.2% Up/Dn14.2% / 4.2% Opp2.984 開富途
  7. #7 TPR P75+3.19% 上漲比58.2% Up/Dn15% / 4% Opp2.262 開富途
  8. #8 TSLA P75+3.18% 上漲比52.4% Up/Dn15.6% / 5% Opp1.362 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.MRNA P75+3.87% 上漲比62.8% Up/Dn18% / 6.4% Opp3.381 開富途
  2. #2 US.VRTX P75+3.59% 上漲比62.6% Up/Dn13.4% / 3% Opp3.349 開富途
  3. #3 US.LLY P75+3.74% 上漲比62.2% Up/Dn16.8% / 4% Opp3.194 開富途
  4. #4 US.EW P75+3.30% 上漲比61.8% Up/Dn12.8% / 2.4% Opp3.167 開富途
  5. #5 US.BIIB P75+3.59% 上漲比62% Up/Dn14.4% / 4% Opp3.077 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

No qualified stable Opp plateau — Opp filter not auto-applied. Set Min/Max Opp manually, or rematerialize Opp study.

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.MRNA Moderna · Health Care

+1.40%

P75+3.87% 上漲比62.8% Up/Dn18% / 6.4% Score49.8 Opp3.381
View chart 開富途
#2 US.VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

+1.22%

P75+3.59% 上漲比62.6% Up/Dn13.4% / 3% Score53.8 Opp3.349
View chart 開富途
#3 US.LLY Lilly (Eli) · Health Care

+1.11%

P75+3.74% 上漲比62.2% Up/Dn16.8% / 4% Score55 Opp3.194
View chart 開富途
#4 US.EW Edwards Lifesciences · Health Care

+1.09%

P75+3.30% 上漲比61.8% Up/Dn12.8% / 2.4% Score60.2 Opp3.167
View chart 開富途
#5 US.BIIB Biogen · Health Care

+1.03%

P75+3.59% 上漲比62% Up/Dn14.4% / 4% Score57.2 Opp3.077
View chart 開富途
#6 US.EME Emcor · Industrials

+0.95%

P75+3.34% 上漲比63.2% Up/Dn14.2% / 4.2% Score52.7 Opp2.984
View chart 開富途
#7 US.TPR Tapestry, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

+0.67%

P75+3.19% 上漲比58.2% Up/Dn15% / 4% Score50.4 Opp2.262
View chart 開富途
#8 US.TSLA Tesla, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

+0.25%

P75+3.18% 上漲比52.4% Up/Dn15.6% / 5% Score56.7 Opp1.362
View chart 開富途