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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=500 · horizon 3D · 自訂篩選生效 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

healthy · 2026-07-13

Computed at 2026年7月29日 下午9:00 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Projection candidates 12

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=500

As-of 2026-07-13

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-07-13
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-07-13
DOE window 2026-05-26 → 2026-07-08
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年7月29日 下午9:00 HKT
Rows 12
Excluded downtrends 14
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau n/a

not ready

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau n/a

n/a

Best holding day n/a

n/a

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -3%

5+ · -0.36% exp · 57D WF

Opp study rows 28,041 with outcomes

1,509 awaiting horizon End 2026-07-13

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日套用與本頁相同篩選；列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

共 31 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

2026-07-07

12 檔
  1. #1 SOLV P75+3.49% 上漲比61.2% Up/Dn15.4% / 3.2% Opp2.995 開富途
  2. #2 CNC P75+3.19% 上漲比56.4% Up/Dn13% / 2.6% Opp2.193 開富途
  3. #3 BDX P75+2.75% 上漲比57% Up/Dn12.4% / 2.2% Opp2.086 開富途
  4. #4 CVS P75+2.86% 上漲比56.2% Up/Dn12% / 1.8% Opp2.048 開富途
  5. #5 ABBV P75+2.73% 上漲比56.4% Up/Dn12.8% / 2% Opp2.036 開富途
  6. #6 LLY P75+2.78% 上漲比55.8% Up/Dn12% / 1.6% Opp1.997 開富途
  7. #7 DGX P75+2.78% 上漲比55.8% Up/Dn11.8% / 1.6% Opp1.985 開富途
  8. #8 CAH P75+2.72% 上漲比55.4% Up/Dn12% / 1.8% Opp1.922 開富途
  9. #9 EW P75+2.73% 上漲比55% Up/Dn12% / 2% Opp1.879 開富途
  10. #10 UNH P75+2.72% 上漲比55.2% Up/Dn11.6% / 1.6% Opp1.861 開富途
  11. #11 WAT P75+2.78% 上漲比54.4% Up/Dn12% / 2% Opp1.774 開富途
  12. #12 A P75+2.78% 上漲比53.6% Up/Dn12.2% / 2% Opp1.649 開富途

2026-07-08

8 檔
  1. #1 PFE P75+3.80% 上漲比64.2% Up/Dn15.4% / 4.2% Opp3.538 開富途
  2. #2 BIIB P75+3.52% 上漲比61.2% Up/Dn15.4% / 4% Opp2.994 開富途
  3. #3 SOLV P75+3.91% 上漲比60% Up/Dn17.8% / 6.4% Opp2.751 開富途
  4. #4 ALGN P75+3.38% 上漲比59.8% Up/Dn14% / 3% Opp2.742 開富途
  5. #5 CVS P75+2.89% 上漲比55.2% Up/Dn11.8% / 1.6% Opp1.957 開富途
  6. #6 VTRS P75+2.91% 上漲比55.6% Up/Dn12.8% / 2.8% Opp1.943 開富途
  7. #7 RVTY P75+3.12% 上漲比54.6% Up/Dn14.4% / 4% Opp1.775 開富途
  8. #8 EW P75+2.70% 上漲比54.6% Up/Dn11.8% / 1.8% Opp1.716 開富途

2026-07-10

9 檔
  1. #1 BIIB P75+3.94% 上漲比64% Up/Dn17.8% / 4.6% Opp3.49 開富途
  2. #2 IRM P75+3.60% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn15.8% / 5.4% Opp3.309 開富途
  3. #3 SOLV P75+3.86% 上漲比61.2% Up/Dn17% / 6% Opp3.012 開富途
  4. #4 KLAC P75+5.12% 上漲比55.4% Up/Dn25.4% / 14.4% Opp1.919 開富途
  5. #5 TPR P75+3.26% 上漲比55.2% Up/Dn16.2% / 5.4% Opp1.856 開富途
  6. #6 ALGN P75+2.96% 上漲比54.4% Up/Dn14% / 3.4% Opp1.728 開富途
  7. #7 MRVL P75+4.98% 上漲比54.8% Up/Dn25% / 14.4% Opp1.712 開富途
  8. #8 CNC P75+2.83% 上漲比54.4% Up/Dn13.6% / 3.6% Opp1.697 開富途
  9. #9 COHR P75+4.79% 上漲比55% Up/Dn24.6% / 14.2% Opp1.688 開富途

2026-07-13

12 檔
  1. #1 VRTX P75+3.46% 上漲比63.6% Up/Dn14.2% / 3.4% Opp3.364 開富途
  2. #2 TPR P75+3.59% 上漲比60.6% Up/Dn16.8% / 3.8% Opp2.855 開富途
  3. #3 MRNA P75+3.47% 上漲比60.2% Up/Dn16.4% / 5.8% Opp2.683 開富途
  4. #4 SOLV P75+3.60% 上漲比59% Up/Dn16.2% / 5.4% Opp2.657 開富途
  5. #5 ALGN P75+3.15% 上漲比58.2% Up/Dn15.4% / 4.4% Opp2.464 開富途
  6. #6 WSM P75+3.32% 上漲比57.6% Up/Dn15% / 4.8% Opp2.223 開富途
  7. #7 RVTY P75+2.91% 上漲比57.2% Up/Dn13.6% / 3.2% Opp2.22 開富途
  8. #8 LLY P75+3.12% 上漲比56.4% Up/Dn13.8% / 3.2% Opp2.152 開富途
  9. #9 PANW P75+5.68% 上漲比55.4% Up/Dn27.2% / 15.6% Opp1.911 開富途
  10. #10 MPWR P75+4.52% 上漲比54.6% Up/Dn24.2% / 14% Opp1.615 開富途
  11. #11 NXPI P75+4.41% 上漲比54.4% Up/Dn23.6% / 13.6% Opp1.535 開富途
  12. #12 QCOM P75+4.76% 上漲比54% Up/Dn24.4% / 14.2% Opp1.525 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.VRTX P75+3.46% 上漲比63.6% Up/Dn14.2% / 3.4% Opp3.364 開富途
  2. #2 US.TPR P75+3.59% 上漲比60.6% Up/Dn16.8% / 3.8% Opp2.855 開富途
  3. #3 US.MRNA P75+3.47% 上漲比60.2% Up/Dn16.4% / 5.8% Opp2.683 開富途
  4. #4 US.SOLV P75+3.60% 上漲比59% Up/Dn16.2% / 5.4% Opp2.657 開富途
  5. #5 US.ALGN P75+3.15% 上漲比58.2% Up/Dn15.4% / 4.4% Opp2.464 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

No qualified stable Opp plateau — Opp filter not auto-applied. Set Min/Max Opp manually, or rematerialize Opp study.

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

+1.23%

P75+3.46% 上漲比63.6% Up/Dn14.2% / 3.4% Score51.3 Opp3.364
View chart 開富途
#2 US.TPR Tapestry, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

+0.98%

P75+3.59% 上漲比60.6% Up/Dn16.8% / 3.8% Score47.6 Opp2.855
View chart 開富途
#3 US.MRNA Moderna · Health Care

+0.94%

P75+3.47% 上漲比60.2% Up/Dn16.4% / 5.8% Score54.3 Opp2.683
View chart 開富途
#4 US.SOLV Solventum · Health Care

+0.96%

P75+3.60% 上漲比59% Up/Dn16.2% / 5.4% Score53.5 Opp2.657
View chart 開富途
#5 US.ALGN Align Technology · Health Care

+0.87%

P75+3.15% 上漲比58.2% Up/Dn15.4% / 4.4% Score55.3 Opp2.464
View chart 開富途
#6 US.WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

+0.71%

P75+3.32% 上漲比57.6% Up/Dn15% / 4.8% Score48.4 Opp2.223
View chart 開富途
#7 US.RVTY Revvity · Health Care

+0.68%

P75+2.91% 上漲比57.2% Up/Dn13.6% / 3.2% Score57.1 Opp2.22
View chart 開富途
#8 US.LLY Lilly (Eli) · Health Care

+0.61%

P75+3.12% 上漲比56.4% Up/Dn13.8% / 3.2% Score58.9 Opp2.152
View chart 開富途
#9 US.PANW Palo Alto Networks · Information Technology

+0.59%

P75+5.68% 上漲比55.4% Up/Dn27.2% / 15.6% Score54 Opp1.911
View chart 開富途
#10 US.MPWR Monolithic Power Systems · Information Technology

+0.60%

P75+4.52% 上漲比54.6% Up/Dn24.2% / 14% Score47.6 Opp1.615
View chart 開富途
#11 US.NXPI NXP Semiconductors · Information Technology

+0.56%

P75+4.41% 上漲比54.4% Up/Dn23.6% / 13.6% Score44.8 Opp1.535
View chart 開富途
#12 US.QCOM Qualcomm · Information Technology

+0.52%

P75+4.76% 上漲比54% Up/Dn24.4% / 14.2% Score46.3 Opp1.525
View chart 開富途