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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=500 · horizon 3D · 自訂篩選生效 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

stale · 2026-07-07

Computed at 2026年7月29日 下午8:36 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Opp study snapshot is stale relative to the served projection date.

View gaps
  • opp_study_date_mismatch · Opp study date mismatch
Projection candidates 12

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=500

As-of 2026-07-07

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-07-07
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-07-07
DOE window 2026-05-19 → 2026-07-01
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年7月29日 下午8:36 HKT
Rows 12
Excluded downtrends 4
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau n/a

Block-bootstrap 95% lower bound of combined lift is not positive.

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau n/a

Block-bootstrap 95% lower bound of combined lift is not positive.

Best holding day 3D

4 - 4.5 · +37% ann. net · n=512

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -5%

3 - 3.5 · +0.76% exp · 71D WF

Opp study rows 25,749 with outcomes

1,508 awaiting horizon End 2026-09-14

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日套用與本頁相同篩選；列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

共 29 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

2026-06-30

8 檔
  1. #1 SOLV P75+3.30% 上漲比58.2% Up/Dn14% / 3.8% Opp2.372 開富途
  2. #2 DXCM P75+3.60% 上漲比58.4% Up/Dn16.6% / 5.8% Opp2.347 開富途
  3. #3 WDC P75+5.74% 上漲比56.4% Up/Dn27.8% / 15% Opp2.22 開富途
  4. #4 DELL P75+6.21% 上漲比54.4% Up/Dn28.4% / 17.8% Opp2.047 開富途
  5. #5 TXN P75+5.29% 上漲比54.8% Up/Dn25.8% / 13.8% Opp1.98 開富途
  6. #6 STX P75+5.38% 上漲比55.4% Up/Dn26.2% / 15% Opp1.889 開富途
  7. #7 KEYS P75+5.82% 上漲比54.4% Up/Dn27.2% / 16.6% Opp1.869 開富途
  8. #8 NTAP P75+5.22% 上漲比54.8% Up/Dn25.6% / 14.8% Opp1.797 開富途

2026-07-01

10 檔
  1. #1 DXCM P75+3.53% 上漲比59.4% Up/Dn16.4% / 5.2% Opp2.705 開富途
  2. #2 COHR P75+5.80% 上漲比56.4% Up/Dn27.6% / 14.2% Opp2.394 開富途
  3. #3 INTC P75+5.92% 上漲比55.6% Up/Dn28.8% / 17.2% Opp2.229 開富途
  4. #4 KEYS P75+5.54% 上漲比56.2% Up/Dn26.8% / 14.6% Opp2.208 開富途
  5. #5 MRVL P75+5.67% 上漲比56% Up/Dn27.2% / 15.2% Opp2.097 開富途
  6. #6 DELL P75+5.92% 上漲比54.8% Up/Dn28.6% / 17.8% Opp1.865 開富途
  7. #7 FLEX P75+6.04% 上漲比52.8% Up/Dn28.6% / 16% Opp1.694 開富途
  8. #8 CIEN P75+5.31% 上漲比53% Up/Dn25.8% / 15.4% Opp1.564 開富途
  9. #9 JBL P75+5.89% 上漲比52% Up/Dn27.8% / 16.8% Opp1.31 開富途
  10. #10 Q P75+5.38% 上漲比51% Up/Dn25.8% / 14.6% Opp1.066 開富途

2026-07-07

12 檔
  1. #1 SOLV P75+3.49% 上漲比61.2% Up/Dn15.4% / 3.2% Opp2.995 開富途
  2. #2 CNC P75+3.19% 上漲比56.4% Up/Dn13% / 2.6% Opp2.193 開富途
  3. #3 BDX P75+2.75% 上漲比57% Up/Dn12.4% / 2.2% Opp2.086 開富途
  4. #4 CVS P75+2.86% 上漲比56.2% Up/Dn12% / 1.8% Opp2.048 開富途
  5. #5 ABBV P75+2.73% 上漲比56.4% Up/Dn12.8% / 2% Opp2.036 開富途
  6. #6 LLY P75+2.78% 上漲比55.8% Up/Dn12% / 1.6% Opp1.997 開富途
  7. #7 DGX P75+2.78% 上漲比55.8% Up/Dn11.8% / 1.6% Opp1.985 開富途
  8. #8 CAH P75+2.72% 上漲比55.4% Up/Dn12% / 1.8% Opp1.922 開富途
  9. #9 EW P75+2.73% 上漲比55% Up/Dn12% / 2% Opp1.879 開富途
  10. #10 UNH P75+2.72% 上漲比55.2% Up/Dn11.6% / 1.6% Opp1.861 開富途
  11. #11 WAT P75+2.78% 上漲比54.4% Up/Dn12% / 2% Opp1.774 開富途
  12. #12 A P75+2.78% 上漲比53.6% Up/Dn12.2% / 2% Opp1.649 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.SOLV P75+3.49% 上漲比61.2% Up/Dn15.4% / 3.2% Opp2.995 開富途
  2. #2 US.CNC P75+3.19% 上漲比56.4% Up/Dn13% / 2.6% Opp2.193 開富途
  3. #3 US.BDX P75+2.75% 上漲比57% Up/Dn12.4% / 2.2% Opp2.086 開富途
  4. #4 US.CVS P75+2.86% 上漲比56.2% Up/Dn12% / 1.8% Opp2.048 開富途
  5. #5 US.ABBV P75+2.73% 上漲比56.4% Up/Dn12.8% / 2% Opp2.036 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

No qualified stable Opp plateau — Opp filter not auto-applied. Set Min/Max Opp manually, or rematerialize Opp study. (Block-bootstrap 95% lower bound of combined lift is not positive.)

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.SOLV Solventum · Health Care

+1.00%

P75+3.49% 上漲比61.2% Up/Dn15.4% / 3.2% Score55.8 Opp2.995
View chart 開富途
#2 US.CNC Centene Corporation · Health Care

+0.56%

P75+3.19% 上漲比56.4% Up/Dn13% / 2.6% Score63.9 Opp2.193
View chart 開富途
#3 US.BDX Becton Dickinson · Health Care

+0.44%

P75+2.75% 上漲比57% Up/Dn12.4% / 2.2% Score70.7 Opp2.086
View chart 開富途
#4 US.CVS CVS Health · Health Care

+0.44%

P75+2.86% 上漲比56.2% Up/Dn12% / 1.8% Score67.3 Opp2.048
View chart 開富途
#5 US.ABBV AbbVie · Health Care

+0.44%

P75+2.73% 上漲比56.4% Up/Dn12.8% / 2% Score69.5 Opp2.036
View chart 開富途
#6 US.LLY Lilly (Eli) · Health Care

+0.42%

P75+2.78% 上漲比55.8% Up/Dn12% / 1.6% Score68.5 Opp1.997
View chart 開富途
#7 US.DGX Quest Diagnostics · Health Care

+0.41%

P75+2.78% 上漲比55.8% Up/Dn11.8% / 1.6% Score68.3 Opp1.985
View chart 開富途
#8 US.CAH Cardinal Health · Health Care

+0.39%

P75+2.72% 上漲比55.4% Up/Dn12% / 1.8% Score70.4 Opp1.922
View chart 開富途
#9 US.EW Edwards Lifesciences · Health Care

+0.38%

P75+2.73% 上漲比55% Up/Dn12% / 2% Score71.6 Opp1.879
View chart 開富途
#10 US.UNH UnitedHealth Group · Health Care

+0.35%

P75+2.72% 上漲比55.2% Up/Dn11.6% / 1.6% Score68.1 Opp1.861
View chart 開富途
#11 US.WAT Waters Corporation · Health Care

+0.34%

P75+2.78% 上漲比54.4% Up/Dn12% / 2% Score67.6 Opp1.774
View chart 開富途
#12 US.A Agilent Technologies · Health Care

+0.25%

P75+2.78% 上漲比53.6% Up/Dn12.2% / 2% Score71.5 Opp1.649
View chart 開富途