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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=500 · horizon 3D · 自訂篩選生效 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

stale · 2026-06-11

Computed at 2026年7月29日 下午6:59 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Opp study snapshot is stale relative to the served projection date.

View gaps
  • opp_study_date_mismatch · Opp study date mismatch
Projection candidates 11

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=500

As-of 2026-06-11

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-06-11
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-06-11
DOE window 2026-04-27 → 2026-06-08
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年7月29日 下午6:59 HKT
Rows 11
Excluded downtrends 1
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau 3.2–3.7

OOS n=709 Median 0.16%

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau 3.2–3.7

+0.16% OOS median · n=709

Best holding day 3D

3 - 3.5 · +25.24% ann. net · n=1158

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -5%

3 - 3.5 · +0.74% exp · 72D WF

Opp study rows 26,014 with outcomes

1,508 awaiting horizon End 2026-09-15

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日套用與本頁相同篩選；列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

共 37 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

2026-06-05

11 檔
  1. #1 BKR P75+3.63% 上漲比65% Up/Dn13.4% / 1.6% Opp3.686 開富途
  2. #2 ORCL P75+6.14% 上漲比60.6% Up/Dn28.8% / 15.9% Opp3.585 開富途
  3. #3 MSFT P75+4.51% 上漲比64.4% Up/Dn22.8% / 8.4% Opp3.579 開富途
  4. #4 FSLR P75+6.08% 上漲比60.9% Up/Dn28.4% / 15.6% Opp3.567 開富途
  5. #5 KLAC P75+6.09% 上漲比60.6% Up/Dn30% / 14.1% Opp3.559 開富途
  6. #6 AMAT P75+5.68% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn28.4% / 14.7% Opp3.558 開富途
  7. #7 NXPI P75+5.64% 上漲比61.9% Up/Dn27.8% / 12.8% Opp3.515 開富途
  8. #8 MSI P75+4.23% 上漲比62.2% Up/Dn20.9% / 6.3% Opp3.428 開富途
  9. #9 CDNS P75+5.48% 上漲比60% Up/Dn28.4% / 14.4% Opp3.261 開富途
  10. #10 AAPL P75+3.92% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn18.8% / 6.6% Opp3.247 開富途
  11. #11 XOM P75+3.51% 上漲比63.1% Up/Dn11.9% / 1.6% Opp3.231 開富途

2026-06-08

11 檔
  1. #1 JBL P75+5.88% 上漲比60% Up/Dn28.2% / 14.8% Opp3.686 開富途
  2. #2 ADI P75+5.86% 上漲比61.4% Up/Dn27.8% / 14% Opp3.67 開富途
  3. #3 MSI P75+4.51% 上漲比64.2% Up/Dn22% / 7.2% Opp3.543 開富途
  4. #4 VRSN P75+4.21% 上漲比64.4% Up/Dn20.6% / 6% Opp3.536 開富途
  5. #5 FLEX P75+4.54% 上漲比61.6% Up/Dn23.4% / 12% Opp3.39 開富途
  6. #6 GLW P75+5.64% 上漲比60.2% Up/Dn28.2% / 14.6% Opp3.343 開富途
  7. #7 LRCX P75+6.08% 上漲比59% Up/Dn29.2% / 15.4% Opp3.251 開富途
  8. #8 COHR P75+5.89% 上漲比59.4% Up/Dn29.4% / 16.2% Opp3.214 開富途
  9. #9 MRVL P75+5.68% 上漲比60.8% Up/Dn28.4% / 17.8% Opp3.211 開富途
  10. #10 HPE P75+6.07% 上漲比59.2% Up/Dn29.6% / 16% Opp3.209 開富途
  11. #11 KLAC P75+6.03% 上漲比58.8% Up/Dn30.2% / 15.6% Opp3.203 開富途

2026-06-10

13 檔
  1. #1 TXN P75+4.95% 上漲比62.6% Up/Dn24.6% / 8.4% Opp3.614 開富途
  2. #2 DDOG P75+5.03% 上漲比62.8% Up/Dn25.2% / 8.6% Opp3.602 開富途
  3. #3 AKAM P75+5.32% 上漲比62.4% Up/Dn26% / 9.4% Opp3.59 開富途
  4. #4 NXPI P75+5.22% 上漲比62.6% Up/Dn25.8% / 9.6% Opp3.443 開富途
  5. #5 MCHP P75+5.32% 上漲比61.8% Up/Dn26.2% / 9.4% Opp3.434 開富途
  6. #6 MRVL P75+5.00% 上漲比61.6% Up/Dn25% / 9.4% Opp3.423 開富途
  7. #7 AMAT P75+5.92% 上漲比58.8% Up/Dn28% / 16% Opp3.293 開富途
  8. #8 TER P75+5.02% 上漲比62.2% Up/Dn25.2% / 9.8% Opp3.292 開富途
  9. #9 FLEX P75+5.78% 上漲比60.4% Up/Dn27.8% / 12% Opp3.269 開富途
  10. #10 MPWR P75+4.96% 上漲比61.8% Up/Dn24.8% / 9% Opp3.266 開富途
  11. #11 INTC P75+4.75% 上漲比61.6% Up/Dn23.4% / 7.8% Opp3.254 開富途
  12. #12 CRWD P75+4.94% 上漲比62% Up/Dn24.6% / 8.8% Opp3.227 開富途
  13. #13 GLW P75+4.75% 上漲比61.4% Up/Dn23.6% / 8% Opp3.2 開富途

2026-06-11

11 檔
  1. #1 FTNT P75+5.76% 上漲比61.4% Up/Dn28% / 15.2% Opp3.63 開富途
  2. #2 STX P75+5.61% 上漲比62% Up/Dn27.4% / 11.6% Opp3.587 開富途
  3. #3 ANET P75+5.62% 上漲比62% Up/Dn27.6% / 10.8% Opp3.562 開富途
  4. #4 IBM P75+5.22% 上漲比63% Up/Dn25.8% / 11% Opp3.514 開富途
  5. #5 CDNS P75+5.75% 上漲比61.4% Up/Dn28.2% / 11.4% Opp3.499 開富途
  6. #6 COHR P75+5.22% 上漲比62.6% Up/Dn25.6% / 11.8% Opp3.326 開富途
  7. #7 ON P75+5.06% 上漲比62.2% Up/Dn25.4% / 10.8% Opp3.309 開富途
  8. #8 ADI P75+5.34% 上漲比61% Up/Dn26.6% / 13.4% Opp3.291 開富途
  9. #9 KEYS P75+4.96% 上漲比62.2% Up/Dn24.6% / 10.6% Opp3.264 開富途
  10. #10 Q P75+5.34% 上漲比60.6% Up/Dn26.6% / 10.6% Opp3.226 開富途
  11. #11 LITE P75+4.94% 上漲比61.8% Up/Dn24% / 9.4% Opp3.216 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.FTNT P75+5.76% 上漲比61.4% Up/Dn28% / 15.2% Opp3.63 開富途
  2. #2 US.STX P75+5.61% 上漲比62% Up/Dn27.4% / 11.6% Opp3.587 開富途
  3. #3 US.ANET P75+5.62% 上漲比62% Up/Dn27.6% / 10.8% Opp3.562 開富途
  4. #4 US.IBM P75+5.22% 上漲比63% Up/Dn25.8% / 11% Opp3.514 開富途
  5. #5 US.CDNS P75+5.75% 上漲比61.4% Up/Dn28.2% / 11.4% Opp3.499 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

Auto Opp band from Opp study best stable plateau: 3.2–3.7 (half-open upper bound). Clear Min/Max Opp and apply to show all.

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.FTNT Fortinet · Information Technology

+1.70%

P75+5.76% 上漲比61.4% Up/Dn28% / 15.2% Score65.3 Opp3.63
View chart 開富途
#2 US.STX Seagate Technology · Information Technology

+1.49%

P75+5.61% 上漲比62% Up/Dn27.4% / 11.6% Score57.4 Opp3.587
View chart 開富途
#3 US.ANET Arista Networks · Information Technology

+1.42%

P75+5.62% 上漲比62% Up/Dn27.6% / 10.8% Score56.7 Opp3.562
View chart 開富途
#4 US.IBM IBM · Information Technology

+1.42%

P75+5.22% 上漲比63% Up/Dn25.8% / 11% Score54.6 Opp3.514
View chart 開富途
#5 US.CDNS Cadence Design Systems · Information Technology

+1.40%

P75+5.75% 上漲比61.4% Up/Dn28.2% / 11.4% Score57.8 Opp3.499
View chart 開富途
#6 US.COHR Coherent Corp. · Information Technology

+1.32%

P75+5.22% 上漲比62.6% Up/Dn25.6% / 11.8% Score53.4 Opp3.326
View chart 開富途
#7 US.ON ON Semiconductor · Information Technology

+1.37%

P75+5.06% 上漲比62.2% Up/Dn25.4% / 10.8% Score46.1 Opp3.309
View chart 開富途
#8 US.ADI Analog Devices · Information Technology

+1.43%

P75+5.34% 上漲比61% Up/Dn26.6% / 13.4% Score60 Opp3.291
View chart 開富途
#9 US.KEYS Keysight Technologies · Information Technology

+1.28%

P75+4.96% 上漲比62.2% Up/Dn24.6% / 10.6% Score53.8 Opp3.264
View chart 開富途
#10 US.Q Qnity Electronics · Information Technology

+1.30%

P75+5.34% 上漲比60.6% Up/Dn26.6% / 10.6% Score50.6 Opp3.226
View chart 開富途
#11 US.LITE Lumentum · Information Technology

+1.25%

P75+4.94% 上漲比61.8% Up/Dn24% / 9.4% Score46.8 Opp3.216
View chart 開富途