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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=160 · horizon 3D · 自訂篩選生效 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

stale · 2026-04-21

Computed at 2026年6月25日 上午5:49 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Opp study snapshot is stale relative to the served projection date.

View gaps
  • opp_study_date_mismatch · Opp study date mismatch
Projection candidates 7

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=160

As-of 2026-04-21

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-04-21
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-04-21
DOE window 2026-03-05 → 2026-04-16
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年6月25日 上午5:49 HKT
Rows 7
Excluded downtrends 5
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau 3.3–3.9

OOS n=759 Median 0.09%

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau 3.3–3.9

+0.09% OOS median · n=759

Best holding day 5D

3.5 - 4 · +3.57% ann. net · n=722

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -3%

4 - 4.5 · +0.43% exp · 64D WF

Opp study rows 25,856 with outcomes

1,508 awaiting horizon End 2026-09-17

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日套用與本頁相同篩選；列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

共 21 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.DELL P75+4.94% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn25% / 14.4% Opp3.876 開富途
  2. #2 US.SYF P75+2.75% 上漲比68.8% Up/Dn12.5% / 1.3% Opp3.864 開富途
  3. #3 US.ADI P75+5.03% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn26.3% / 11.9% Opp3.829 開富途
  4. #4 US.XYZ P75+3.72% 上漲比64.4% Up/Dn16.3% / 3.1% Opp3.62 開富途
  5. #5 US.TRV P75+3.16% 上漲比65% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.9% Opp3.574 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

Auto Opp band from Opp study best stable plateau: 3.3–3.9 (half-open upper bound). Clear Min/Max Opp and apply to show all.

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.DELL Dell Technologies · Information Technology

+1.76%

P75+4.94% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn25% / 14.4% Score99.3 Opp3.876
View chart 開富途
#2 US.SYF Synchrony Financial · Financials

+1.17%

P75+2.75% 上漲比68.8% Up/Dn12.5% / 1.3% Score77.4 Opp3.864
View chart 開富途
#3 US.ADI Analog Devices · Information Technology

+1.76%

P75+5.03% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn26.3% / 11.9% Score82.9 Opp3.829
View chart 開富途
#4 US.XYZ Block, Inc. · Financials

+1.15%

P75+3.72% 上漲比64.4% Up/Dn16.3% / 3.1% Score76.5 Opp3.62
View chart 開富途
#5 US.TRV Travelers Companies (The) · Financials

+1.10%

P75+3.16% 上漲比65% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.9% Score79.7 Opp3.574
View chart 開富途
#6 US.CB Chubb Limited · Financials

+1.06%

P75+2.62% 上漲比65.6% Up/Dn11.3% / 0.6% Score76.4 Opp3.5
View chart 開富途
#7 US.ACGL Arch Capital Group · Financials

+1.03%

P75+2.70% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn11.3% / 0.6% Score79.8 Opp3.372
View chart 開富途