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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=500 · horizon 3D · 自訂篩選生效 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

stale · 2026-04-14

Computed at 2026年6月25日 上午6:01 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Opp study snapshot is stale relative to the served projection date.

View gaps
  • opp_study_date_mismatch · Opp study date mismatch
Projection candidates 10

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=500

As-of 2026-04-14

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-04-14
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-04-14
DOE window 2026-02-26 → 2026-04-09
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年6月25日 上午6:01 HKT
Rows 10
Excluded downtrends 2
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau n/a

Block-bootstrap 95% lower bound of combined lift is not positive.

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau n/a

Block-bootstrap 95% lower bound of combined lift is not positive.

Best holding day 3D

4 - 4.5 · +27.76% ann. net · n=522

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -3%

4 - 4.5 · +0.2% exp · 58D WF

Opp study rows 25,757 with outcomes

1,507 awaiting horizon End 2026-09-18

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日套用與本頁相同篩選；列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

共 29 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

2026-04-08

0 檔

Materialized projections exist but none pass the current filters.

2026-04-10

22 檔
  1. #1 ON P75+7.38% 上漲比65.6% Up/Dn35.6% / 10% Opp5.05 開富途
  2. #2 GLW P75+6.98% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn31.9% / 10.6% Opp4.28 開富途
  3. #3 MU P75+7.15% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn33.8% / 11.3% Opp4.082 開富途
  4. #4 TPL P75+4.02% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn19.4% / 6.3% Opp4.032 開富途
  5. #5 PH P75+3.62% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5% / 3.8% Opp3.623 開富途
  6. #6 IR P75+4.54% 上漲比61.9% Up/Dn19.4% / 3.1% Opp3.539 開富途
  7. #7 EMR P75+3.50% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn16.3% / 5% Opp3.129 開富途
  8. #8 AKAM P75+4.48% 上漲比60.6% Up/Dn21.9% / 11.3% Opp2.837 開富途
  9. #9 FAST P75+3.19% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn16.3% / 6.3% Opp2.764 開富途
  10. #10 PCAR P75+3.19% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn15% / 4.4% Opp2.66 開富途
  11. #11 CIEN P75+5.96% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn28.1% / 13.8% Opp2.61 開富途
  12. #12 GNRC P75+4.75% 上漲比58.1% Up/Dn23.1% / 10% Opp2.569 開富途
  13. #13 PPG P75+4.10% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn20.6% / 7.5% Opp2.476 開富途
  14. #14 SNDK P75+6.26% 上漲比56.9% Up/Dn28.8% / 16.3% Opp2.461 開富途
  15. #15 FDX P75+3.61% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn18.8% / 5% Opp2.426 開富途
  16. #16 WDC P75+6.26% 上漲比56.9% Up/Dn29.4% / 16.9% Opp2.409 開富途
  17. #17 TER P75+6.26% 上漲比56.3% Up/Dn28.8% / 16.9% Opp2.36 開富途
  18. #18 TXT P75+3.58% 上漲比56.3% Up/Dn18.8% / 5% Opp2.276 開富途
  19. #19 LITE P75+5.65% 上漲比56.3% Up/Dn26.9% / 16.9% Opp2.101 開富途
  20. #20 Q P75+5.75% 上漲比55.6% Up/Dn28.1% / 15% Opp2.092 開富途
  21. #21 STX P75+5.78% 上漲比55.6% Up/Dn27.5% / 15.6% Opp2.071 開富途
  22. #22 APH P75+5.32% 上漲比55.6% Up/Dn26.3% / 15% Opp1.971 開富途

2026-04-14

10 檔
  1. #1 INTC P75+5.91% 上漲比60% Up/Dn28.2% / 15% Opp3.182 開富途
  2. #2 MPWR P75+5.71% 上漲比59% Up/Dn28% / 15.6% Opp2.961 開富途
  3. #3 AKAM P75+5.13% 上漲比60.2% Up/Dn26.4% / 13.2% Opp2.793 開富途
  4. #4 MCHP P75+5.18% 上漲比57.4% Up/Dn25.8% / 15.8% Opp2.742 開富途
  5. #5 GLW P75+5.34% 上漲比57.8% Up/Dn26.6% / 15.2% Opp2.708 開富途
  6. #6 AMAT P75+5.18% 上漲比57.8% Up/Dn26% / 15.8% Opp2.683 開富途
  7. #7 MU P75+5.78% 上漲比56.2% Up/Dn27.8% / 15.8% Opp2.513 開富途
  8. #8 SNDK P75+5.78% 上漲比56% Up/Dn27.2% / 16.2% Opp2.333 開富途
  9. #9 GNRC P75+3.62% 上漲比56% Up/Dn19.6% / 8.2% Opp2.043 開富途
  10. #10 BF.B P75+3.57% 上漲比53.8% Up/Dn19.4% / 8.2% Opp1.565 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.INTC P75+5.91% 上漲比60% Up/Dn28.2% / 15% Opp3.182 開富途
  2. #2 US.MPWR P75+5.71% 上漲比59% Up/Dn28% / 15.6% Opp2.961 開富途
  3. #3 US.AKAM P75+5.13% 上漲比60.2% Up/Dn26.4% / 13.2% Opp2.793 開富途
  4. #4 US.MCHP P75+5.18% 上漲比57.4% Up/Dn25.8% / 15.8% Opp2.742 開富途
  5. #5 US.GLW P75+5.34% 上漲比57.8% Up/Dn26.6% / 15.2% Opp2.708 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

No qualified stable Opp plateau — Opp filter not auto-applied. Set Min/Max Opp manually, or rematerialize Opp study. (Block-bootstrap 95% lower bound of combined lift is not positive.)

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.INTC Intel · Information Technology

+1.24%

P75+5.91% 上漲比60% Up/Dn28.2% / 15% Score75.2 Opp3.182
View chart 開富途
#2 US.MPWR Monolithic Power Systems · Information Technology

+1.16%

P75+5.71% 上漲比59% Up/Dn28% / 15.6% Score78.6 Opp2.961
View chart 開富途
#3 US.AKAM Akamai Technologies · Information Technology

+1.12%

P75+5.13% 上漲比60.2% Up/Dn26.4% / 13.2% Score48.9 Opp2.793
View chart 開富途
#4 US.MCHP Microchip Technology · Information Technology

+1.19%

P75+5.18% 上漲比57.4% Up/Dn25.8% / 15.8% Score81.7 Opp2.742
View chart 開富途
#5 US.GLW Corning Inc. · Information Technology

+1.10%

P75+5.34% 上漲比57.8% Up/Dn26.6% / 15.2% Score74.8 Opp2.708
View chart 開富途
#6 US.AMAT Applied Materials · Information Technology

+1.15%

P75+5.18% 上漲比57.8% Up/Dn26% / 15.8% Score75 Opp2.683
View chart 開富途
#7 US.MU Micron Technology · Information Technology

+0.93%

P75+5.78% 上漲比56.2% Up/Dn27.8% / 15.8% Score78.6 Opp2.513
View chart 開富途
#8 US.SNDK Sandisk · Information Technology

+0.76%

P75+5.78% 上漲比56% Up/Dn27.2% / 16.2% Score82.7 Opp2.333
View chart 開富途
#9 US.GNRC Generac · Industrials

+0.59%

P75+3.62% 上漲比56% Up/Dn19.6% / 8.2% Score74.6 Opp2.043
View chart 開富途
#10 US.BF.B Brown–Forman · Consumer Staples

+0.33%

P75+3.57% 上漲比53.8% Up/Dn19.4% / 8.2% Score70.8 Opp1.565
View chart 開富途