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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=120 · horizon 3D · 自訂篩選生效 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

stale · 2026-04-07

Computed at 2026年6月25日 上午6:13 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Opp study snapshot is stale relative to the served projection date.

View gaps
  • opp_study_date_mismatch · Opp study date mismatch
Projection candidates 3

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=120

As-of 2026-04-07

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-04-07
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-04-07
DOE window 2026-02-19 → 2026-04-01
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年6月25日 上午6:13 HKT
Rows 3
Excluded downtrends 9
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau n/a

Block-bootstrap 95% lower bound of combined lift is not positive.

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau n/a

Block-bootstrap 95% lower bound of combined lift is not positive.

Best holding day 3D

4 - 4.5 · +21.88% ann. net · n=511

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -3%

3 - 3.5 · +0.23% exp · 59D WF

Opp study rows 25,760 with outcomes

1,505 awaiting horizon End 2026-09-18

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日套用與本頁相同篩選；列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

共 56 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

2026-03-31

35 檔
  1. #1 FANG P75+3.65% 上漲比85% Up/Dn17.5% / 0% Opp6.326 開富途
  2. #2 APA P75+4.83% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 0% Opp6.319 開富途
  3. #3 KMI P75+3.59% 上漲比85% Up/Dn15% / 0% Opp6.092 開富途
  4. #4 XOM P75+3.77% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 2.5% Opp5.829 開富途
  5. #5 TRGP P75+3.43% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn10% / 0% Opp5.346 開富途
  6. #6 CVX P75+3.26% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn10% / 0% Opp5.181 開富途
  7. #7 PCG P75+1.74% 上漲比87.5% Up/Dn10% / 0% Opp4.991 開富途
  8. #8 FFIV P75+3.71% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Opp4.987 開富途
  9. #9 EXE P75+5.12% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 2.5% Opp4.91 開富途
  10. #10 PEG P75+1.76% 上漲比85% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Opp4.877 開富途
  11. #11 BKR P75+4.67% 上漲比70% Up/Dn25% / 2.5% Opp4.871 開富途
  12. #12 SLB P75+4.23% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 2.5% Opp4.555 開富途
  13. #13 VLO P75+4.47% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn20% / 5% Opp4.506 開富途
  14. #14 D P75+1.78% 上漲比80% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Opp4.354 開富途
  15. #15 IFF P75+5.52% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn30% / 5% Opp4.043 開富途
  16. #16 CSX P75+3.74% 上漲比70% Up/Dn17.5% / 7.5% Opp4.01 開富途
  17. #17 WAB P75+3.74% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Opp3.955 開富途
  18. #18 MU P75+5.28% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn30% / 12.5% Opp3.93 開富途
  19. #19 FCX P75+4.94% 上漲比60% Up/Dn25% / 10% Opp3.771 開富途
  20. #20 DOW P75+5.00% 上漲比60% Up/Dn25% / 7.5% Opp3.752 開富途
  21. #21 DD P75+4.43% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 12.5% Opp3.629 開富途
  22. #22 AMAT P75+4.77% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn25% / 2.5% Opp3.319 開富途
  23. #23 WEC P75+2.55% 上漲比65% Up/Dn10% / 0% Opp3.161 開富途
  24. #24 MPWR P75+6.48% 上漲比60% Up/Dn30% / 7.5% Opp3.109 開富途
  25. #25 ON P75+3.81% 上漲比60% Up/Dn20% / 10% Opp3.014 開富途
  26. #26 FTNT P75+4.53% 上漲比65% Up/Dn25% / 10% Opp2.935 開富途
  27. #27 NEM P75+4.43% 上漲比55% Up/Dn22.5% / 7.5% Opp2.723 開富途
  28. #28 COHR P75+3.73% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 7.5% Opp2.696 開富途
  29. #29 LYB P75+4.43% 上漲比55% Up/Dn22.5% / 10% Opp2.656 開富途
  30. #30 ALB P75+3.65% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 10% Opp1.855 開富途
  31. #31 FAST P75+3.80% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 7.5% Opp1.672 開富途
  32. #32 TER P75+5.31% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 17.5% Opp1.15 開富途
  33. #33 Q P75+5.61% 上漲比50% Up/Dn32.5% / 20% Opp0.779 開富途
  34. #34 TDY P75+3.82% 上漲比50% Up/Dn20% / 7.5% Opp0.692 開富途
  35. #35 CF P75+2.69% 上漲比45% Up/Dn22.5% / 7.5% Opp-0.198 開富途

2026-04-01

22 檔
  1. #1 MU P75+7.12% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn37.5% / 5% Opp7.13 開富途
  2. #2 APA P75+3.84% 上漲比75% Up/Dn17.5% / 0% Opp6.04 開富途
  3. #3 ES P75+1.96% 上漲比90% Up/Dn10% / 0% Opp5.639 開富途
  4. #4 OXY P75+3.60% 上漲比75% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Opp5.368 開富途
  5. #5 VLO P75+4.55% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 5% Opp4.887 開富途
  6. #6 OKE P75+3.38% 上漲比80% Up/Dn17.5% / 7.5% Opp4.772 開富途
  7. #7 PSX P75+3.45% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Opp4.718 開富途
  8. #8 CVX P75+3.45% 上漲比75% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Opp4.638 開富途
  9. #9 XOM P75+2.90% 上漲比70% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Opp4.2 開富途
  10. #10 DOW P75+5.78% 上漲比60% Up/Dn27.5% / 12.5% Opp3.989 開富途
  11. #11 COHR P75+3.97% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn20% / 5% Opp3.849 開富途
  12. #12 COP P75+2.51% 上漲比70% Up/Dn10% / 0% Opp3.761 開富途
  13. #13 PCG P75+1.61% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn10% / 0% Opp3.754 開富途
  14. #14 LYB P75+4.18% 上漲比60% Up/Dn22.5% / 10% Opp3.488 開富途
  15. #15 NEM P75+5.00% 上漲比55% Up/Dn25% / 5% Opp3.437 開富途
  16. #16 FCX P75+5.00% 上漲比55% Up/Dn25% / 5% Opp3.43 開富途
  17. #17 ON P75+3.33% 上漲比60% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Opp3.171 開富途
  18. #18 LITE P75+4.38% 上漲比55% Up/Dn20% / 7.5% Opp2.759 開富途
  19. #19 EQIX P75+2.41% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn10% / 0% Opp2.32 開富途
  20. #20 FLEX P75+3.78% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn25% / 12.5% Opp1.884 開富途
  21. #21 MDLZ P75+2.06% 上漲比45% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Opp0.143 開富途
  22. #22 ETR P75+0.79% 上漲比40% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Opp-0.6 開富途

2026-04-02

24 檔
  1. #1 KEYS P75+7.65% 上漲比75% Up/Dn32.5% / 5% Opp6.45 開富途
  2. #2 FFIV P75+6.09% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn30% / 7.5% Opp5.56 開富途
  3. #3 MU P75+6.51% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn40% / 12.5% Opp5.015 開富途
  4. #4 DVN P75+3.17% 上漲比80% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Opp4.933 開富途
  5. #5 OKE P75+3.29% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn15% / 5% Opp4.658 開富途
  6. #6 KMI P75+3.17% 上漲比75% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Opp4.304 開富途
  7. #7 TRGP P75+3.00% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Opp3.901 開富途
  8. #8 EQT P75+4.73% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25% / 15% Opp3.731 開富途
  9. #9 COP P75+2.51% 上漲比65% Up/Dn10% / 0% Opp3.014 開富途
  10. #10 FCX P75+5.00% 上漲比55% Up/Dn25% / 12.5% Opp3.001 開富途
  11. #11 VLO P75+4.40% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn20% / 7.5% Opp2.952 開富途
  12. #12 BKR P75+4.47% 上漲比60% Up/Dn22.5% / 5% Opp2.874 開富途
  13. #13 OXY P75+4.67% 上漲比60% Up/Dn25% / 5% Opp2.774 開富途
  14. #14 NEM P75+5.06% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn25% / 10% Opp2.757 開富途
  15. #15 TER P75+4.10% 上漲比60% Up/Dn20% / 10% Opp2.542 開富途
  16. #16 DOW P75+4.62% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn25% / 12.5% Opp2.473 開富途
  17. #17 SNDK P75+4.44% 上漲比60% Up/Dn20% / 7.5% Opp2.464 開富途
  18. #18 TPL P75+4.73% 上漲比55% Up/Dn25% / 15% Opp2.447 開富途
  19. #19 APA P75+4.47% 上漲比55% Up/Dn22.5% / 5% Opp2.203 開富途
  20. #20 COHR P75+4.59% 上漲比55% Up/Dn25% / 10% Opp2.116 開富途
  21. #21 CHRW P75+3.69% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 7.5% Opp1.892 開富途
  22. #22 CCI P75+1.78% 上漲比55% Up/Dn10% / 0% Opp1.889 開富途
  23. #23 ETR P75+1.40% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Opp1.378 開富途
  24. #24 DAL P75+4.10% 上漲比50% Up/Dn20% / 10% Opp0.582 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.NTAP P75+4.45% 上漲比61.7% Up/Dn23.3% / 10% Opp2.648 開富途
  2. #2 US.ON P75+4.08% 上漲比55.8% Up/Dn20.8% / 10.8% Opp1.655 開富途
  3. #3 US.FCX P75+3.12% 上漲比51.7% Up/Dn19.2% / 9.2% Opp1.104 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

No qualified stable Opp plateau — Opp filter not auto-applied. Set Min/Max Opp manually, or rematerialize Opp study. (Block-bootstrap 95% lower bound of combined lift is not positive.)

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.NTAP NetApp · Information Technology

+0.83%

P75+4.45% 上漲比61.7% Up/Dn23.3% / 10% Score49.3 Opp2.648
View chart 開富途
#2 US.ON ON Semiconductor · Information Technology

+0.32%

P75+4.08% 上漲比55.8% Up/Dn20.8% / 10.8% Score66.6 Opp1.655
View chart 開富途
#3 US.FCX Freeport-McMoRan · Materials

+0.13%

P75+3.12% 上漲比51.7% Up/Dn19.2% / 9.2% Score81.3 Opp1.104
View chart 開富途