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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=160 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

stale · 2026-01-26

Computed at 2026年7月10日 上午9:34 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Opp study snapshot is stale relative to the served projection date.

Filters
View gaps
  • opp_study_date_mismatch · Opp study date mismatch
Projection candidates 34

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=160

As-of 2026-01-26

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-01-26
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-01-26
DOE window 2026-01-05 → 2026-01-21
DOE anchors 48
Computed at 2026年7月10日 上午9:34 HKT
Rows 34
Excluded downtrends 3
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau n/a

Block-bootstrap 95% lower bound of combined lift is not positive.

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau n/a

Block-bootstrap 95% lower bound of combined lift is not positive.

Best holding day 3D

4 - 4.5 · +21.88% ann. net · n=511

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -3%

3 - 3.5 · +0.23% exp · 59D WF

Opp study rows 25,760 with outcomes

1,505 awaiting horizon End 2026-09-18

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日優先用當日穩定 Opp 高原；唔合格就沿用上一日。其餘篩選與本頁相同。列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

提醒：連續 5 日或以上無合格穩定 Opp 高原，已沿用上一日區間（若仍無可用區間則不設 Opp 上下限）。

共 77 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

01-20

42檔 Opp—
  1. #1 KR P75+4.65% 上漲比88.3% Up/Dn20.8% / 0% Opp7.665 開富途
  2. #2 CAG P75+4.66% 上漲比84.2% Up/Dn18.3% / 0.8% Opp6.582 開富途
  3. #3 GIS P75+4.44% 上漲比83.3% Up/Dn18.3% / 0% Opp6.557 開富途
  4. #4 EL P75+4.65% 上漲比80.8% Up/Dn20% / 2.5% Opp6.397 開富途
  5. #5 BF.B P75+4.73% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn21.7% / 0.8% Opp6.309 開富途
  6. #6 CLX P75+4.64% 上漲比80% Up/Dn20% / 3.3% Opp6.268 開富途
  7. #7 MKC P75+4.73% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn21.7% / 0.8% Opp6.263 開富途
  8. #8 PM P75+4.34% 上漲比79.2% Up/Dn16.7% / 1.7% Opp6.257 開富途
  9. #9 KHC P75+4.47% 上漲比80% Up/Dn18.3% / 3.3% Opp6.181 開富途
  10. #10 CASY P75+4.65% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn20.8% / 2.5% Opp6.172 開富途
  11. #11 MO P75+4.07% 上漲比79.2% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Opp6.111 開富途
  12. #12 HSY P75+4.34% 上漲比75.8% Up/Dn16.7% / 0.8% Opp6.033 開富途
  13. #13 KDP P75+4.36% 上漲比75% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Opp5.924 開富途
  14. #14 DLTR P75+4.14% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn15.8% / 2.5% Opp5.843 開富途
  15. #15 SJM P75+4.23% 上漲比73.3% Up/Dn13.3% / 0.8% Opp5.77 開富途
  16. #16 SYY P75+4.36% 上漲比71.7% Up/Dn15% / 1.7% Opp5.697 開富途
  17. #17 DG P75+4.23% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn16.7% / 5% Opp5.683 開富途
  18. #18 HRL P75+4.41% 上漲比70% Up/Dn15.8% / 4.2% Opp5.366 開富途
  19. #19 ADM P75+4.34% 上漲比70% Up/Dn15% / 0.8% Opp5.351 開富途
  20. #20 TAP P75+4.45% 上漲比70.8% Up/Dn19.2% / 4.2% Opp5.335 開富途
  21. #21 SW P75+3.67% 上漲比76.7% Up/Dn14.2% / 0.8% Opp5.287 開富途
  22. #22 PG P75+3.94% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn10.8% / 0% Opp5.231 開富途
  23. #23 GEV P75+4.23% 上漲比75% Up/Dn15.8% / 2.5% Opp5.18 開富途
  24. #24 FAST P75+3.43% 上漲比75% Up/Dn10.8% / 0.8% Opp4.961 開富途
  25. #25 WMT P75+4.03% 上漲比69.2% Up/Dn13.3% / 2.5% Opp4.909 開富途
  26. #26 DOW P75+3.64% 上漲比75% Up/Dn16.7% / 3.3% Opp4.876 開富途
  27. #27 LYB P75+3.29% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn13.3% / 0.8% Opp4.752 開富途
  28. #28 SHW P75+3.05% 上漲比75% Up/Dn13.3% / 3.3% Opp4.673 開富途
  29. #29 CTVA P75+2.94% 上漲比75.8% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Opp4.64 開富途
  30. #30 ALB P75+4.23% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn19.2% / 4.2% Opp4.51 開富途
  31. #31 AMD P75+4.77% 上漲比65.8% Up/Dn22.5% / 10.8% Opp4.485 開富途
  32. #32 DVN P75+3.86% 上漲比69.2% Up/Dn17.5% / 6.7% Opp4.34 開富途
  33. #33 FCX P75+3.32% 上漲比70% Up/Dn11.7% / 1.7% Opp4.33 開富途
  34. #34 AMCR P75+3.27% 上漲比70% Up/Dn15% / 1.7% Opp4.184 開富途
  35. #35 BKR P75+3.15% 上漲比70% Up/Dn11.7% / 1.7% Opp4.061 開富途
  36. #36 OXY P75+2.94% 上漲比69.2% Up/Dn11.7% / 0.8% Opp3.976 開富途
  37. #37 EQR P75+2.72% 上漲比70.8% Up/Dn10.8% / 0.8% Opp3.886 開富途
  38. #38 MU P75+4.81% 上漲比63.3% Up/Dn23.3% / 10.8% Opp3.717 開富途
  39. #39 JBL P75+4.77% 上漲比64.2% Up/Dn24.2% / 10.8% Opp3.665 開富途
  40. #40 COP P75+3.38% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 7.5% Opp3.184 開富途
  41. #41 CF P75+3.33% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15% / 5% Opp3.117 開富途
  42. #42 TER P75+3.47% 上漲比60% Up/Dn17.5% / 5.8% Opp2.86 開富途

01-21

36檔 Opp—
  1. #1 EL P75+4.32% 上漲比78.1% Up/Dn16.9% / 0.6% Opp6.116 開富途
  2. #2 HRL P75+4.36% 上漲比71.9% Up/Dn16.3% / 1.9% Opp5.553 開富途
  3. #3 KDP P75+3.82% 上漲比76.9% Up/Dn11.9% / 1.9% Opp5.469 開富途
  4. #4 MKC P75+3.96% 上漲比75.6% Up/Dn13.8% / 3.1% Opp5.41 開富途
  5. #5 CAG P75+4.09% 上漲比74.4% Up/Dn15% / 4.4% Opp5.247 開富途
  6. #6 CASY P75+4.13% 上漲比70.6% Up/Dn15.6% / 1.9% Opp5.148 開富途
  7. #7 HSY P75+4.04% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Opp5.073 開富途
  8. #8 PM P75+4.15% 上漲比70.6% Up/Dn15% / 3.1% Opp5.067 開富途
  9. #9 BF.B P75+4.42% 上漲比70% Up/Dn18.1% / 5.6% Opp4.833 開富途
  10. #10 PWR P75+3.67% 上漲比74.4% Up/Dn15% / 1.9% Opp4.829 開富途
  11. #11 SJM P75+3.96% 上漲比70.6% Up/Dn15% / 3.8% Opp4.812 開富途
  12. #12 MDLZ P75+3.69% 上漲比73.1% Up/Dn12.5% / 1.9% Opp4.76 開富途
  13. #13 KHC P75+3.63% 上漲比68.1% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Opp4.619 開富途
  14. #14 DVN P75+4.19% 上漲比69.4% Up/Dn15% / 3.8% Opp4.589 開富途
  15. #15 CLX P75+3.81% 上漲比70.6% Up/Dn14.4% / 1.3% Opp4.574 開富途
  16. #16 GIS P75+3.82% 上漲比70.6% Up/Dn11.9% / 1.9% Opp4.514 開富途
  17. #17 NEM P75+3.60% 上漲比70.6% Up/Dn12.5% / 1.3% Opp4.421 開富途
  18. #18 FIX P75+3.52% 上漲比70% Up/Dn14.4% / 2.5% Opp4.384 開富途
  19. #19 AMAT P75+4.85% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn24.4% / 8.1% Opp4.284 開富途
  20. #20 KLAC P75+4.81% 上漲比66.9% Up/Dn23.8% / 8.1% Opp4.283 開富途
  21. #21 MPWR P75+5.02% 上漲比64.4% Up/Dn25.6% / 9.4% Opp4.275 開富途
  22. #22 TSN P75+4.09% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn13.1% / 3.1% Opp4.209 開富途
  23. #23 ECL P75+3.19% 上漲比70% Up/Dn11.3% / 1.3% Opp4.188 開富途
  24. #24 TPL P75+4.41% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn18.8% / 4.4% Opp4.154 開富途
  25. #25 LRCX P75+4.85% 上漲比65% Up/Dn24.4% / 8.8% Opp4.146 開富途
  26. #26 EME P75+3.33% 上漲比69.4% Up/Dn13.1% / 2.5% Opp4.102 開富途
  27. #27 COHR P75+4.87% 上漲比65.6% Up/Dn24.4% / 9.4% Opp4.044 開富途
  28. #28 DOW P75+4.39% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn18.1% / 5.6% Opp3.965 開富途
  29. #29 ALB P75+4.18% 上漲比65.6% Up/Dn16.9% / 6.3% Opp3.908 開富途
  30. #30 EQT P75+3.81% 上漲比65% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Opp3.593 開富途
  31. #31 SW P75+3.29% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn17.5% / 5.6% Opp3.492 開富途
  32. #32 UAL P75+2.78% 上漲比68.1% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Opp3.483 開富途
  33. #33 JBL P75+4.75% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn23.8% / 10% Opp3.184 開富途
  34. #34 VRSN P75+3.60% 上漲比63.1% Up/Dn16.3% / 6.3% Opp3.131 開富途
  35. #35 WDC P75+3.78% 上漲比58.8% Up/Dn17.5% / 6.9% Opp2.978 開富途
  36. #36 STX P75+3.78% 上漲比59.4% Up/Dn17.5% / 7.5% Opp2.585 開富途

01-22

0檔 Opp—

Materialized projections exist but none pass the current filters.

01-26

34檔 Opp—
  1. #1 SW P75+4.01% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn18.8% / 1.9% Opp5.527 開富途
  2. #2 TPL P75+3.79% 上漲比78.1% Up/Dn15.6% / 2.5% Opp5.348 開富途
  3. #3 KHC P75+3.86% 上漲比76.9% Up/Dn13.1% / 3.1% Opp5.314 開富途
  4. #4 KDP P75+3.87% 上漲比75.6% Up/Dn15% / 4.4% Opp5.26 開富途
  5. #5 PSX P75+4.22% 上漲比73.8% Up/Dn16.9% / 1.9% Opp5.161 開富途
  6. #6 DLTR P75+3.76% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Opp5.161 開富途
  7. #7 CF P75+3.60% 上漲比75.6% Up/Dn14.4% / 0.6% Opp5.123 開富途
  8. #8 LYB P75+3.50% 上漲比76.3% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Opp5.085 開富途
  9. #9 TGT P75+3.82% 上漲比75.6% Up/Dn13.1% / 2.5% Opp5.012 開富途
  10. #10 FCX P75+4.67% 上漲比71.9% Up/Dn21.3% / 2.5% Opp4.984 開富途
  11. #11 APA P75+4.13% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn15.6% / 2.5% Opp4.949 開富途
  12. #12 NUE P75+3.67% 上漲比75% Up/Dn13.8% / 2.5% Opp4.869 開富途
  13. #13 DD P75+3.84% 上漲比74.4% Up/Dn13.8% / 0% Opp4.866 開富途
  14. #14 APD P75+3.32% 上漲比74.4% Up/Dn11.3% / 1.3% Opp4.864 開富途
  15. #15 IFF P75+4.09% 上漲比74.4% Up/Dn18.1% / 1.3% Opp4.82 開富途
  16. #16 VLO P75+4.20% 上漲比70% Up/Dn17.5% / 3.1% Opp4.72 開富途
  17. #17 ALB P75+4.53% 上漲比70% Up/Dn19.4% / 2.5% Opp4.702 開富途
  18. #18 MLM P75+3.25% 上漲比74.4% Up/Dn11.3% / 1.3% Opp4.688 開富途
  19. #19 AMCR P75+3.68% 上漲比73.1% Up/Dn13.8% / 0.6% Opp4.661 開富途
  20. #20 DOW P75+3.54% 上漲比71.3% Up/Dn14.4% / 2.5% Opp4.55 開富途
  21. #21 BG P75+3.87% 上漲比68.8% Up/Dn14.4% / 4.4% Opp4.492 開富途
  22. #22 CHD P75+3.90% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Opp4.456 開富途
  23. #23 IP P75+3.51% 上漲比71.9% Up/Dn15% / 3.1% Opp4.439 開富途
  24. #24 DVN P75+3.55% 上漲比71.3% Up/Dn17.5% / 5.6% Opp4.22 開富途
  25. #25 PPG P75+3.25% 上漲比69.4% Up/Dn10.6% / 0.6% Opp4.191 開富途
  26. #26 EQT P75+4.35% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn19.4% / 5% Opp4.037 開富途
  27. #27 HAL P75+2.99% 上漲比68.8% Up/Dn13.1% / 1.3% Opp3.929 開富途
  28. #28 HRL P75+3.59% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Opp3.783 開富途
  29. #29 ECL P75+3.36% 上漲比65.6% Up/Dn15.6% / 1.3% Opp3.6 開富途
  30. #30 WMB P75+3.12% 上漲比61.9% Up/Dn10.6% / 0.6% Opp3.297 開富途
  31. #31 SNDK P75+4.71% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn23.8% / 8.1% Opp3.285 開富途
  32. #32 MO P75+3.18% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn11.3% / 1.3% Opp3.277 開富途
  33. #33 JBL P75+3.63% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 7.5% Opp3.02 開富途
  34. #34 PM P75+2.98% 上漲比60.6% Up/Dn11.3% / 0.6% Opp2.955 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.SW P75+4.01% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn18.8% / 1.9% Opp5.527 開富途
  2. #2 US.TPL P75+3.79% 上漲比78.1% Up/Dn15.6% / 2.5% Opp5.348 開富途
  3. #3 US.KHC P75+3.86% 上漲比76.9% Up/Dn13.1% / 3.1% Opp5.314 開富途
  4. #4 US.KDP P75+3.87% 上漲比75.6% Up/Dn15% / 4.4% Opp5.26 開富途
  5. #5 US.PSX P75+4.22% 上漲比73.8% Up/Dn16.9% / 1.9% Opp5.161 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

沒有合格穩定 Opp 高原，暫時未自動篩選。可手動填 Min/Max Opp，或先 rematerialize Opp study。 (Block-bootstrap 95% lower bound of combined lift is not positive.)

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.SW Smurfit Westrock · Materials

+1.89%

P75+4.01% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn18.8% / 1.9% Score73.1 Opp5.527
View chart 開富途
#2 US.TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation · Energy

+1.78%

P75+3.79% 上漲比78.1% Up/Dn15.6% / 2.5% Score69.7 Opp5.348
View chart 開富途
#3 US.KHC Kraft Heinz · Consumer Staples

+1.97%

P75+3.86% 上漲比76.9% Up/Dn13.1% / 3.1% Score55 Opp5.314
View chart 開富途
#4 US.KDP Keurig Dr Pepper · Consumer Staples

+2.03%

P75+3.87% 上漲比75.6% Up/Dn15% / 4.4% Score63.8 Opp5.26
View chart 開富途
#5 US.PSX Phillips 66 · Energy

+1.84%

P75+4.22% 上漲比73.8% Up/Dn16.9% / 1.9% Score63.4 Opp5.161
View chart 開富途
#6 US.DLTR Dollar Tree · Consumer Staples

+1.76%

P75+3.76% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Score54.8 Opp5.161
View chart 開富途
#7 US.CF CF Industries · Materials

+1.67%

P75+3.60% 上漲比75.6% Up/Dn14.4% / 0.6% Score72.1 Opp5.123
View chart 開富途
#8 US.LYB LyondellBasell · Materials

+1.67%

P75+3.50% 上漲比76.3% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Score68.5 Opp5.085
View chart 開富途
#9 US.TGT Target Corporation · Consumer Staples

+1.73%

P75+3.82% 上漲比75.6% Up/Dn13.1% / 2.5% Score57.2 Opp5.012
View chart 開富途
#10 US.FCX Freeport-McMoRan · Materials

+1.63%

P75+4.67% 上漲比71.9% Up/Dn21.3% / 2.5% Score77.9 Opp4.984
View chart 開富途
#11 US.APA APA Corporation · Energy

+1.78%

P75+4.13% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn15.6% / 2.5% Score64.9 Opp4.949
View chart 開富途
#12 US.NUE Nucor · Materials

+1.55%

P75+3.67% 上漲比75% Up/Dn13.8% / 2.5% Score73.6 Opp4.869
View chart 開富途
#13 US.DD DuPont · Materials

+1.35%

P75+3.84% 上漲比74.4% Up/Dn13.8% / 0% Score80.5 Opp4.866
View chart 開富途
#14 US.APD Air Products · Materials

+1.66%

P75+3.32% 上漲比74.4% Up/Dn11.3% / 1.3% Score66.7 Opp4.864
View chart 開富途
#15 US.IFF International Flavors & Fragrances · Materials

+1.35%

P75+4.09% 上漲比74.4% Up/Dn18.1% / 1.3% Score76.5 Opp4.82
View chart 開富途
#16 US.VLO Valero Energy · Energy

+1.81%

P75+4.20% 上漲比70% Up/Dn17.5% / 3.1% Score59.5 Opp4.72
View chart 開富途
#17 US.ALB Albemarle Corporation · Materials

+1.52%

P75+4.53% 上漲比70% Up/Dn19.4% / 2.5% Score79.9 Opp4.702
View chart 開富途
#18 US.MLM Martin Marietta Materials · Materials

+1.51%

P75+3.25% 上漲比74.4% Up/Dn11.3% / 1.3% Score65.6 Opp4.688
View chart 開富途
#19 US.AMCR Amcor · Materials

+1.35%

P75+3.68% 上漲比73.1% Up/Dn13.8% / 0.6% Score77.2 Opp4.661
View chart 開富途
#20 US.DOW Dow Inc. · Materials

+1.63%

P75+3.54% 上漲比71.3% Up/Dn14.4% / 2.5% Score64.1 Opp4.55
View chart 開富途
#21 US.BG Bunge Global · Consumer Staples

+1.76%

P75+3.87% 上漲比68.8% Up/Dn14.4% / 4.4% Score69.9 Opp4.492
View chart 開富途
#22 US.CHD Church & Dwight · Consumer Staples

+1.76%

P75+3.90% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score75.6 Opp4.456
View chart 開富途
#23 US.IP International Paper · Materials

+1.51%

P75+3.51% 上漲比71.9% Up/Dn15% / 3.1% Score64.7 Opp4.439
View chart 開富途
#24 US.DVN Devon Energy · Energy

+1.44%

P75+3.55% 上漲比71.3% Up/Dn17.5% / 5.6% Score69.9 Opp4.22
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#25 US.PPG PPG Industries · Materials

+1.30%

P75+3.25% 上漲比69.4% Up/Dn10.6% / 0.6% Score75 Opp4.191
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#26 US.EQT EQT Corporation · Energy

+1.38%

P75+4.35% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn19.4% / 5% Score75.4 Opp4.037
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#27 US.HAL Halliburton · Energy

+1.23%

P75+2.99% 上漲比68.8% Up/Dn13.1% / 1.3% Score70.1 Opp3.929
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#28 US.HRL Hormel Foods · Consumer Staples

+1.25%

P75+3.59% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Score81.3 Opp3.783
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#29 US.ECL Ecolab · Materials

+0.96%

P75+3.36% 上漲比65.6% Up/Dn15.6% / 1.3% Score84 Opp3.6
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#30 US.WMB Williams Companies · Energy

+0.94%

P75+3.12% 上漲比61.9% Up/Dn10.6% / 0.6% Score88.1 Opp3.297
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#31 US.SNDK Sandisk · Information Technology

+1.08%

P75+4.71% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn23.8% / 8.1% Score81.3 Opp3.285
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#32 US.MO Altria · Consumer Staples

+0.94%

P75+3.18% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn11.3% / 1.3% Score82.6 Opp3.277
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#33 US.JBL Jabil · Information Technology

+0.98%

P75+3.63% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 7.5% Score77.7 Opp3.02
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#34 US.PM Philip Morris International · Consumer Staples

+0.77%

P75+2.98% 上漲比60.6% Up/Dn11.3% / 0.6% Score83.7 Opp2.955
View chart 開富途