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Rolling projection DOE

Find the projection setup whose median is closest to actual outcomes.

Replay completed anchors and rank horizon × sample-size settings by projection error.

Snapshot 2026-06-15
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-06-15
Window 2026-04-29 → 2026-06-10
Anchors 120
Lookback 730D
Confidence low
Computed at 2026年7月29日 下午7:13 HKT
Point-in-time Point-in-time safe

Best rolling setting

3D · n=500

DOE results snapshot · Window: 2026-04-29 → 2026-06-10 · anchors: 120 · latest snapshot: 2026-06-15 · computed at: 2026年7月29日 下午7:13 HKT

Median abs error2.59%
Mean abs error4.26%
Bias-0.47%
Inside P25/P7553.3%

DOE setting comparison

Same idea as score-vs-outcome analysis: compare each parameter setting by observed actual-minus-median error over rolling completed anchors. Lower median abs error and lower bias win.

Setting Median abs Bias P25/P75 hit n Read
Setting 3D · n=500
Median abs 2.59%
Bias -0.47%
P25/P75 hit 53.3%
n 120
Rank Best setting
Setting 3D · n=320
Median abs 2.8%
Bias -0.51%
P25/P75 hit 51.7%
n 120
Rank #2 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=160
Median abs 2.82%
Bias -0.56%
P25/P75 hit 49.2%
n 120
Rank #3 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=240
Median abs 2.86%
Bias -0.54%
P25/P75 hit 51.7%
n 120
Rank #4 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=120
Median abs 2.88%
Bias -0.65%
P25/P75 hit 51.7%
n 120
Rank #5 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=80
Median abs 2.83%
Bias -0.74%
P25/P75 hit 49.2%
n 120
Rank #6 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=40
Median abs 2.95%
Bias -0.68%
P25/P75 hit 46.7%
n 120
Rank #7 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=160
Median abs 4.04%
Bias +0.29%
P25/P75 hit 50%
n 112
Rank #8 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=40
Median abs 4.01%
Bias +0.21%
P25/P75 hit 45.5%
n 112
Rank #9 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=80
Median abs 4.04%
Bias +0.05%
P25/P75 hit 48.2%
n 112
Rank #10 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=320
Median abs 4.11%
Bias +0.52%
P25/P75 hit 51.8%
n 112
Rank #11 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=120
Median abs 4.21%
Bias +0.12%
P25/P75 hit 49.1%
n 112
Rank #12 Candidate

Best setting 3D · n=500: median projection vs actual return

-2 1 4 -14.00% 0.00% +26.00% US.EQR Median projection 0.12, actual return -0.29%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.NXPI Median projection 0.78, actual return +0.52%, runup -0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.CNC Median projection 0.44, actual return -0.78%, runup -1.22%, drawdown -1.22%US.GNRC Median projection 0.34, actual return +1.64%, runup +1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.QCOM Median projection 0.46, actual return +3.88%, runup +3.42%, drawdown -3.42%US.PWR Median projection 0.09, actual return +6.02%, runup +5.93%, drawdown -5.93%US.CAT Median projection 0.09, actual return +1.63%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.GOOGL Median projection 0.27, actual return +0.94%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.FRT Median projection 0.28, actual return +1.26%, runup +0.98%, drawdown -0.98%US.SNDK Median projection 0.72, actual return +18.79%, runup +18.07%, drawdown -18.07%US.PWR Median projection 0.14, actual return +5.80%, runup +5.66%, drawdown -5.66%US.STX Median projection 0.86, actual return +8.18%, runup +7.32%, drawdown -7.32%US.CBOE Median projection 0.56, actual return -0.08%, runup -0.64%, drawdown -0.64%US.ADM Median projection 0.44, actual return +1.65%, runup +1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.PWR Median projection 0.22, actual return -0.87%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.TSN Median projection 0.4, actual return -1.18%, runup -1.58%, drawdown -1.58%US.J Median projection 0.2, actual return -13.27%, runup -13.47%, drawdown -13.47%US.DD Median projection 0.28, actual return +1.06%, runup +0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.ADM Median projection 0.36, actual return -1.93%, runup -2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.SWKS Median projection 0.94, actual return -7.97%, runup -8.91%, drawdown -8.91%US.DVA Median projection 0.36, actual return +2.60%, runup +2.24%, drawdown -2.24%US.JBL Median projection 0.71, actual return -1.91%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.SMCI Median projection 1.09, actual return -3.29%, runup -4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.RVTY Median projection 0.36, actual return -0.14%, runup -0.50%, drawdown -0.50%US.APP Median projection 1.19, actual return -1.64%, runup -2.83%, drawdown -2.83%US.VTRS Median projection 0.32, actual return -1.27%, runup -1.59%, drawdown -1.59%US.HWM Median projection 0.26, actual return -1.02%, runup -1.28%, drawdown -1.28%US.FTNT Median projection 1.15, actual return +5.46%, runup +4.31%, drawdown -4.31%US.MNST Median projection 0.53, actual return -0.42%, runup -0.95%, drawdown -0.95%US.GEN Median projection 1.36, actual return +2.69%, runup +1.33%, drawdown -1.33%US.FTNT Median projection 1.3, actual return +3.17%, runup +1.87%, drawdown -1.87%US.PANW Median projection 1.36, actual return +9.58%, runup +8.22%, drawdown -8.22%US.COHR Median projection 1.58, actual return +6.65%, runup +5.07%, drawdown -5.07%US.FSLR Median projection 1.63, actual return -0.71%, runup -2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.FOXA Median projection 0.53, actual return -3.54%, runup -4.07%, drawdown -4.07%US.FOX Median projection 0.56, actual return -4.22%, runup -4.78%, drawdown -4.78%US.CVS Median projection 0.46, actual return +0.78%, runup +0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.PM Median projection 0.49, actual return +1.43%, runup +0.94%, drawdown -0.94%US.Q Median projection 1.58, actual return -6.61%, runup -8.19%, drawdown -8.19%US.PANW Median projection 1.58, actual return +12.63%, runup +11.05%, drawdown -11.05%US.CSCO Median projection 1.01, actual return +16.70%, runup +15.69%, drawdown -15.69%US.PANW Median projection 1.58, actual return +8.67%, runup +7.09%, drawdown -7.09%US.F Median projection 0.43, actual return -3.98%, runup -4.41%, drawdown -4.41%US.GEN Median projection 1.58, actual return +4.51%, runup +2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.HPE Median projection 1.56, actual return -4.42%, runup -5.98%, drawdown -5.98%US.WMB Median projection 0.47, actual return +2.20%, runup +1.73%, drawdown -1.73%US.F Median projection 0.61, actual return -9.81%, runup -10.42%, drawdown -10.42%US.CSCO Median projection 1.08, actual return -0.13%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.XOM Median projection 0.41, actual return -1.04%, runup -1.45%, drawdown -1.45%US.CRWD Median projection 2.17, actual return +9.43%, runup +7.26%, drawdown -7.26%US.PANW Median projection 1.73, actual return +1.58%, runup -0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.JBHT Median projection 0.27, actual return +0.26%, runup -0.01%, drawdown -0.01%US.D Median projection 0.49, actual return +1.08%, runup +0.59%, drawdown -0.59%US.ADP Median projection 0.27, actual return -1.28%, runup -1.55%, drawdown -1.55%US.COST Median projection 0.53, actual return -2.42%, runup -2.95%, drawdown -2.95%US.UNP Median projection 0.22, actual return -3.52%, runup -3.74%, drawdown -3.74%US.WMB Median projection 0.17, actual return -1.17%, runup -1.34%, drawdown -1.34%US.COST Median projection 0.47, actual return -6.04%, runup -6.51%, drawdown -6.51%US.KR Median projection 0.27, actual return -4.75%, runup -5.02%, drawdown -5.02%US.DXCM Median projection 0.59, actual return +7.69%, runup +7.10%, drawdown -7.10%US.DXCM Median projection 0.56, actual return +0.80%, runup +0.24%, drawdown -0.24%US.CRWD Median projection 2.17, actual return +3.30%, runup +1.13%, drawdown -1.13%US.GEN Median projection 2.2, actual return -0.96%, runup -3.16%, drawdown -3.16%US.GS Median projection 0.27, actual return +1.26%, runup +0.99%, drawdown -0.99%US.FSLR Median projection 1.65, actual return +9.96%, runup +8.31%, drawdown -8.31%US.CPRT Median projection 0.03, actual return -4.51%, runup -4.54%, drawdown -4.54%US.IBM Median projection 0.96, actual return +0.88%, runup -0.08%, drawdown -0.08%US.MET Median projection 0.27, actual return -1.30%, runup -1.57%, drawdown -1.57%US.HPE Median projection 1.58, actual return +1.68%, runup +0.10%, drawdown -0.10%US.DELL Median projection 1.58, actual return +7.41%, runup +5.83%, drawdown -5.83%US.HPQ Median projection 1.59, actual return -0.91%, runup -2.50%, drawdown -2.50%US.NTAP Median projection 1.58, actual return +2.18%, runup +0.60%, drawdown -0.60%US.MU Median projection 1.58, actual return +8.39%, runup +6.81%, drawdown -6.81%US.JBL Median projection 2.44, actual return -4.13%, runup -6.57%, drawdown -6.57%US.LRCX Median projection 1.17, actual return -1.39%, runup -2.56%, drawdown -2.56%US.MRVL Median projection 1.61, actual return -1.57%, runup -3.18%, drawdown -3.18%US.STLD Median projection 0.36, actual return +1.31%, runup +0.95%, drawdown -0.95%US.APP Median projection 1.58, actual return +8.08%, runup +6.50%, drawdown -6.50%US.NTAP Median projection 1.58, actual return +25.89%, runup +24.31%, drawdown -24.31%US.MGM Median projection 0.35, actual return +20.83%, runup +20.48%, drawdown -20.48%US.DLTR Median projection 0.62, actual return -3.19%, runup -3.81%, drawdown -3.81%US.HRL Median projection 0.41, actual return -1.02%, runup -1.43%, drawdown -1.43%US.FSLR Median projection 1.61, actual return +2.52%, runup +0.91%, drawdown -0.91%US.A Median projection 0.7, actual return -0.24%, runup -0.94%, drawdown -0.94%US.WDAY Median projection 1.61, actual return +0.49%, runup -1.12%, drawdown -1.12%US.ORCL Median projection 1.08, actual return +2.02%, runup +0.94%, drawdown -0.94%US.PLTR Median projection 1.63, actual return -9.16%, runup -10.79%, drawdown -10.79%US.HOOD Median projection 0.84, actual return -12.14%, runup -12.98%, drawdown -12.98%US.FDS Median projection 0.9, actual return -5.84%, runup -6.74%, drawdown -6.74%US.MGM Median projection 0.81, actual return -5.43%, runup -6.24%, drawdown -6.24%US.CDNS Median projection 1.08, actual return -0.60%, runup -1.68%, drawdown -1.68%US.ORCL Median projection 1.73, actual return -4.76%, runup -6.49%, drawdown -6.49%US.MRVL Median projection 1.72, actual return -9.40%, runup -11.12%, drawdown -11.12%US.COHR Median projection 1.69, actual return -11.69%, runup -13.38%, drawdown -13.38%US.IBM Median projection 1.59, actual return -13.48%, runup -15.07%, drawdown -15.07%US.FCX Median projection 0.42, actual return -11.64%, runup -12.06%, drawdown -12.06%US.MRVL Median projection 1.71, actual return -4.24%, runup -5.95%, drawdown -5.95%US.KLAC Median projection 1.47, actual return -0.80%, runup -2.27%, drawdown -2.27%US.URI Median projection -0.02, actual return +2.60%, runup +2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.APTV Median projection 1.08, actual return -9.80%, runup -10.88%, drawdown -10.88%US.FITB Median projection -0.01, actual return +1.76%, runup +1.77%, drawdown -1.77%US.MS Median projection 0.2, actual return -3.67%, runup -3.87%, drawdown -3.87%US.MDT Median projection -0.08, actual return +0.06%, runup +0.14%, drawdown -0.14%US.GS Median projection 0.24, actual return -5.55%, runup -5.79%, drawdown -5.79%US.HST Median projection -0.16, actual return -2.72%, runup -2.56%, drawdown -2.56%US.MRVL Median projection 1.75, actual return -4.13%, runup -5.88%, drawdown -5.88%US.MAA Median projection -0.11, actual return +1.63%, runup +1.74%, drawdown -1.74%US.COO Median projection -0.13, actual return +0.52%, runup +0.65%, drawdown -0.65%US.UNH Median projection -0.11, actual return -0.25%, runup -0.14%, drawdown -0.14%US.COO Median projection -0.2, actual return +1.08%, runup +1.28%, drawdown -1.28%US.CNC Median projection 0.14, actual return -2.29%, runup -2.43%, drawdown -2.43%US.BXP Median projection -0.18, actual return +2.63%, runup +2.81%, drawdown -2.81%US.COO Median projection -0.05, actual return -1.08%, runup -1.03%, drawdown -1.03%US.CNC Median projection -0.13, actual return -1.54%, runup -1.41%, drawdown -1.41%US.SJM Median projection -0.13, actual return +3.65%, runup +3.78%, drawdown -3.78%US.KIM Median projection -0.21, actual return +2.86%, runup +3.07%, drawdown -3.07%US.CASY Median projection 0.27, actual return -4.72%, runup -4.99%, drawdown -4.99%US.USB Median projection 0.04, actual return +1.73%, runup +1.69%, drawdown -1.69%US.SJM Median projection -0.13, actual return -0.95%, runup -0.82%, drawdown -0.82%US.CAH Median projection -0.31, actual return +4.67%, runup +4.98%, drawdown -4.98% Bucket avg Median projection -0.1, actual return +0.99%, n 15Bucket avg Median projection 0.8, actual return +0.11%, n 101Bucket avg Median projection 2.2, actual return +1.91%, n 4 Corr +0.07 R² 0.5% n 120 Median projection return Actual return

X = Median projection return. Y = actual return. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +0.28%

Best setting 3D · n=500: median projection vs forecast error

-2 1 4 -16.00% 0.00% +26.00% US.EQR Median projection 0.12, forecast error -0.41%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.NXPI Median projection 0.78, forecast error -0.26%, runup -0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.CNC Median projection 0.44, forecast error -1.22%, runup -1.22%, drawdown -1.22%US.GNRC Median projection 0.34, forecast error +1.30%, runup +1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.QCOM Median projection 0.46, forecast error +3.42%, runup +3.42%, drawdown -3.42%US.PWR Median projection 0.09, forecast error +5.93%, runup +5.93%, drawdown -5.93%US.CAT Median projection 0.09, forecast error +1.54%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.GOOGL Median projection 0.27, forecast error +0.67%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.FRT Median projection 0.28, forecast error +0.98%, runup +0.98%, drawdown -0.98%US.SNDK Median projection 0.72, forecast error +18.07%, runup +18.07%, drawdown -18.07%US.PWR Median projection 0.14, forecast error +5.66%, runup +5.66%, drawdown -5.66%US.STX Median projection 0.86, forecast error +7.32%, runup +7.32%, drawdown -7.32%US.CBOE Median projection 0.56, forecast error -0.64%, runup -0.64%, drawdown -0.64%US.ADM Median projection 0.44, forecast error +1.21%, runup +1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.PWR Median projection 0.22, forecast error -1.09%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.TSN Median projection 0.4, forecast error -1.58%, runup -1.58%, drawdown -1.58%US.J Median projection 0.2, forecast error -13.47%, runup -13.47%, drawdown -13.47%US.DD Median projection 0.28, forecast error +0.78%, runup +0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.ADM Median projection 0.36, forecast error -2.29%, runup -2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.SWKS Median projection 0.94, forecast error -8.91%, runup -8.91%, drawdown -8.91%US.DVA Median projection 0.36, forecast error +2.24%, runup +2.24%, drawdown -2.24%US.JBL Median projection 0.71, forecast error -2.62%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.SMCI Median projection 1.09, forecast error -4.38%, runup -4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.RVTY Median projection 0.36, forecast error -0.50%, runup -0.50%, drawdown -0.50%US.APP Median projection 1.19, forecast error -2.83%, runup -2.83%, drawdown -2.83%US.VTRS Median projection 0.32, forecast error -1.59%, runup -1.59%, drawdown -1.59%US.HWM Median projection 0.26, forecast error -1.28%, runup -1.28%, drawdown -1.28%US.FTNT Median projection 1.15, forecast error +4.31%, runup +4.31%, drawdown -4.31%US.MNST Median projection 0.53, forecast error -0.95%, runup -0.95%, drawdown -0.95%US.GEN Median projection 1.36, forecast error +1.33%, runup +1.33%, drawdown -1.33%US.FTNT Median projection 1.3, forecast error +1.87%, runup +1.87%, drawdown -1.87%US.PANW Median projection 1.36, forecast error +8.22%, runup +8.22%, drawdown -8.22%US.COHR Median projection 1.58, forecast error +5.07%, runup +5.07%, drawdown -5.07%US.FSLR Median projection 1.63, forecast error -2.34%, runup -2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.FOXA Median projection 0.53, forecast error -4.07%, runup -4.07%, drawdown -4.07%US.FOX Median projection 0.56, forecast error -4.78%, runup -4.78%, drawdown -4.78%US.CVS Median projection 0.46, forecast error +0.32%, runup +0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.PM Median projection 0.49, forecast error +0.94%, runup +0.94%, drawdown -0.94%US.Q Median projection 1.58, forecast error -8.19%, runup -8.19%, drawdown -8.19%US.PANW Median projection 1.58, forecast error +11.05%, runup +11.05%, drawdown -11.05%US.CSCO Median projection 1.01, forecast error +15.69%, runup +15.69%, drawdown -15.69%US.PANW Median projection 1.58, forecast error +7.09%, runup +7.09%, drawdown -7.09%US.F Median projection 0.43, forecast error -4.41%, runup -4.41%, drawdown -4.41%US.GEN Median projection 1.58, forecast error +2.93%, runup +2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.HPE Median projection 1.56, forecast error -5.98%, runup -5.98%, drawdown -5.98%US.WMB Median projection 0.47, forecast error +1.73%, runup +1.73%, drawdown -1.73%US.F Median projection 0.61, forecast error -10.42%, runup -10.42%, drawdown -10.42%US.CSCO Median projection 1.08, forecast error -1.21%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.XOM Median projection 0.41, forecast error -1.45%, runup -1.45%, drawdown -1.45%US.CRWD Median projection 2.17, forecast error +7.26%, runup +7.26%, drawdown -7.26%US.PANW Median projection 1.73, forecast error -0.15%, runup -0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.JBHT Median projection 0.27, forecast error -0.01%, runup -0.01%, drawdown -0.01%US.D Median projection 0.49, forecast error +0.59%, runup +0.59%, drawdown -0.59%US.ADP Median projection 0.27, forecast error -1.55%, runup -1.55%, drawdown -1.55%US.COST Median projection 0.53, forecast error -2.95%, runup -2.95%, drawdown -2.95%US.UNP Median projection 0.22, forecast error -3.74%, runup -3.74%, drawdown -3.74%US.WMB Median projection 0.17, forecast error -1.34%, runup -1.34%, drawdown -1.34%US.COST Median projection 0.47, forecast error -6.51%, runup -6.51%, drawdown -6.51%US.KR Median projection 0.27, forecast error -5.02%, runup -5.02%, drawdown -5.02%US.DXCM Median projection 0.59, forecast error +7.10%, runup +7.10%, drawdown -7.10%US.DXCM Median projection 0.56, forecast error +0.24%, runup +0.24%, drawdown -0.24%US.CRWD Median projection 2.17, forecast error +1.13%, runup +1.13%, drawdown -1.13%US.GEN Median projection 2.2, forecast error -3.16%, runup -3.16%, drawdown -3.16%US.GS Median projection 0.27, forecast error +0.99%, runup +0.99%, drawdown -0.99%US.FSLR Median projection 1.65, forecast error +8.31%, runup +8.31%, drawdown -8.31%US.CPRT Median projection 0.03, forecast error -4.54%, runup -4.54%, drawdown -4.54%US.IBM Median projection 0.96, forecast error -0.08%, runup -0.08%, drawdown -0.08%US.MET Median projection 0.27, forecast error -1.57%, runup -1.57%, drawdown -1.57%US.HPE Median projection 1.58, forecast error +0.10%, runup +0.10%, drawdown -0.10%US.DELL Median projection 1.58, forecast error +5.83%, runup +5.83%, drawdown -5.83%US.HPQ Median projection 1.59, forecast error -2.50%, runup -2.50%, drawdown -2.50%US.NTAP Median projection 1.58, forecast error +0.60%, runup +0.60%, drawdown -0.60%US.MU Median projection 1.58, forecast error +6.81%, runup +6.81%, drawdown -6.81%US.JBL Median projection 2.44, forecast error -6.57%, runup -6.57%, drawdown -6.57%US.LRCX Median projection 1.17, forecast error -2.56%, runup -2.56%, drawdown -2.56%US.MRVL Median projection 1.61, forecast error -3.18%, runup -3.18%, drawdown -3.18%US.STLD Median projection 0.36, forecast error +0.95%, runup +0.95%, drawdown -0.95%US.APP Median projection 1.58, forecast error +6.50%, runup +6.50%, drawdown -6.50%US.NTAP Median projection 1.58, forecast error +24.31%, runup +24.31%, drawdown -24.31%US.MGM Median projection 0.35, forecast error +20.48%, runup +20.48%, drawdown -20.48%US.DLTR Median projection 0.62, forecast error -3.81%, runup -3.81%, drawdown -3.81%US.HRL Median projection 0.41, forecast error -1.43%, runup -1.43%, drawdown -1.43%US.FSLR Median projection 1.61, forecast error +0.91%, runup +0.91%, drawdown -0.91%US.A Median projection 0.7, forecast error -0.94%, runup -0.94%, drawdown -0.94%US.WDAY Median projection 1.61, forecast error -1.12%, runup -1.12%, drawdown -1.12%US.ORCL Median projection 1.08, forecast error +0.94%, runup +0.94%, drawdown -0.94%US.PLTR Median projection 1.63, forecast error -10.79%, runup -10.79%, drawdown -10.79%US.HOOD Median projection 0.84, forecast error -12.98%, runup -12.98%, drawdown -12.98%US.FDS Median projection 0.9, forecast error -6.74%, runup -6.74%, drawdown -6.74%US.MGM Median projection 0.81, forecast error -6.24%, runup -6.24%, drawdown -6.24%US.CDNS Median projection 1.08, forecast error -1.68%, runup -1.68%, drawdown -1.68%US.ORCL Median projection 1.73, forecast error -6.49%, runup -6.49%, drawdown -6.49%US.MRVL Median projection 1.72, forecast error -11.12%, runup -11.12%, drawdown -11.12%US.COHR Median projection 1.69, forecast error -13.38%, runup -13.38%, drawdown -13.38%US.IBM Median projection 1.59, forecast error -15.07%, runup -15.07%, drawdown -15.07%US.FCX Median projection 0.42, forecast error -12.06%, runup -12.06%, drawdown -12.06%US.MRVL Median projection 1.71, forecast error -5.95%, runup -5.95%, drawdown -5.95%US.KLAC Median projection 1.47, forecast error -2.27%, runup -2.27%, drawdown -2.27%US.URI Median projection -0.02, forecast error +2.62%, runup +2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.APTV Median projection 1.08, forecast error -10.88%, runup -10.88%, drawdown -10.88%US.FITB Median projection -0.01, forecast error +1.77%, runup +1.77%, drawdown -1.77%US.MS Median projection 0.2, forecast error -3.87%, runup -3.87%, drawdown -3.87%US.MDT Median projection -0.08, forecast error +0.14%, runup +0.14%, drawdown -0.14%US.GS Median projection 0.24, forecast error -5.79%, runup -5.79%, drawdown -5.79%US.HST Median projection -0.16, forecast error -2.56%, runup -2.56%, drawdown -2.56%US.MRVL Median projection 1.75, forecast error -5.88%, runup -5.88%, drawdown -5.88%US.MAA Median projection -0.11, forecast error +1.74%, runup +1.74%, drawdown -1.74%US.COO Median projection -0.13, forecast error +0.65%, runup +0.65%, drawdown -0.65%US.UNH Median projection -0.11, forecast error -0.14%, runup -0.14%, drawdown -0.14%US.COO Median projection -0.2, forecast error +1.28%, runup +1.28%, drawdown -1.28%US.CNC Median projection 0.14, forecast error -2.43%, runup -2.43%, drawdown -2.43%US.BXP Median projection -0.18, forecast error +2.81%, runup +2.81%, drawdown -2.81%US.COO Median projection -0.05, forecast error -1.03%, runup -1.03%, drawdown -1.03%US.CNC Median projection -0.13, forecast error -1.41%, runup -1.41%, drawdown -1.41%US.SJM Median projection -0.13, forecast error +3.78%, runup +3.78%, drawdown -3.78%US.KIM Median projection -0.21, forecast error +3.07%, runup +3.07%, drawdown -3.07%US.CASY Median projection 0.27, forecast error -4.99%, runup -4.99%, drawdown -4.99%US.USB Median projection 0.04, forecast error +1.69%, runup +1.69%, drawdown -1.69%US.SJM Median projection -0.13, forecast error -0.82%, runup -0.82%, drawdown -0.82%US.CAH Median projection -0.31, forecast error +4.98%, runup +4.98%, drawdown -4.98% Bucket avg Median projection -0.1, forecast error +1.13%, n 15Bucket avg Median projection 0.8, forecast error -0.72%, n 101Bucket avg Median projection 2.2, forecast error -0.33%, n 4 Corr -0.04 R² 0.1% n 120 Median projection return Actual - median

X = Median projection return. Y = actual - median. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: -0.47%

DOE ranking

Ranked by a composite DOE score: lower median/mean absolute error, lower bias, enough anchors, and better IQR coverage.

Rank Horizon n Median abs Mean abs Bias Inside P25/P75 Anchors DOE score
#1 3D 500 2.59% 4.26% -0.47% 53.3% 120 2.723
#2 3D 320 2.8% 4.26% -0.51% 51.7% 120 2.838
#3 3D 160 2.82% 4.29% -0.56% 49.2% 120 2.872
#4 3D 240 2.86% 4.26% -0.54% 51.7% 120 2.873
#5 3D 120 2.88% 4.33% -0.65% 51.7% 120 2.924
#6 3D 80 2.83% 4.39% -0.74% 49.2% 120 2.94
#7 3D 40 2.95% 4.39% -0.68% 46.7% 120 2.997
#8 5D 160 4.04% 7.08% +0.29% 50% 112 4.416
#9 5D 40 4.01% 7.19% +0.21% 45.5% 112 4.439
#10 5D 80 4.04% 7.27% +0.05% 48.2% 112 4.452
#11 5D 320 4.11% 7.12% +0.52% 51.8% 112 4.496
#12 5D 120 4.21% 7.16% +0.12% 49.1% 112 4.506
#13 5D 240 4.37% 7.09% +0.31% 52.7% 112 4.581
#14 5D 500 4.29% 7.17% +0.67% 50% 112 4.63
#15 15D 40 7.07% 8.27% +0.07% 45.8% 72 6.326
#16 10D 240 6.55% 8.91% -0.28% 40.2% 92 6.335
#17 10D 160 6.54% 8.86% -0.52% 40.2% 92 6.349
#18 15D 120 6.63% 8.73% +0.92% 52.8% 72 6.377
#19 15D 80 6.88% 8.6% +0.40% 47.2% 72 6.392
#20 15D 160 6.55% 8.81% +1.31% 54.2% 72 6.419
#21 15D 240 6.58% 8.84% +1.92% 52.8% 72 6.54
#22 15D 320 6.43% 8.98% +2.29% 54.2% 72 6.566
#23 10D 500 6.74% 9.15% +0.64% 34.8% 92 6.582
#24 10D 320 7.07% 9.02% +0.11% 39.1% 92 6.611
#25 10D 120 7.03% 8.95% -0.60% 40.2% 92 6.637
#26 10D 80 7.15% 8.99% -0.69% 38% 92 6.73
#27 15D 500 6.35% 9.29% +3.11% 55.6% 72 6.754
#28 10D 40 7.19% 9.18% -0.57% 35.9% 92 6.804
#29 20D 160 7.04% 10.12% +0.21% 63.5% 52 6.935
#30 20D 120 7.44% 10.16% -0.82% 59.6% 52 7.25