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Rolling projection DOE

Find the projection setup whose median is closest to actual outcomes.

Replay completed anchors and rank horizon × sample-size settings by projection error.

Snapshot 2026-05-15
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-05-15
Window 2026-03-31 → 2026-05-12
Anchors 120
Lookback 730D
Confidence low
Computed at 2026年6月25日 上午5:10 HKT
Point-in-time Point-in-time safe

Best rolling setting

3D · n=500

DOE results snapshot · Window: 2026-03-31 → 2026-05-12 · anchors: 120 · latest snapshot: 2026-05-15 · computed at: 2026年6月25日 上午5:10 HKT

Median abs error2.38%
Mean abs error3.87%
Bias+1.41%
Inside P25/P7551.7%

DOE setting comparison

Same idea as score-vs-outcome analysis: compare each parameter setting by observed actual-minus-median error over rolling completed anchors. Lower median abs error and lower bias win.

Setting Median abs Bias P25/P75 hit n Read
Setting 3D · n=500
Median abs 2.38%
Bias +1.41%
P25/P75 hit 51.7%
n 120
Rank Best setting
Setting 3D · n=320
Median abs 2.45%
Bias +1.42%
P25/P75 hit 52.5%
n 120
Rank #2 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=240
Median abs 2.6%
Bias +1.40%
P25/P75 hit 53.3%
n 120
Rank #3 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=120
Median abs 2.63%
Bias +1.44%
P25/P75 hit 56.7%
n 120
Rank #4 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=160
Median abs 2.66%
Bias +1.46%
P25/P75 hit 52.5%
n 120
Rank #5 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=80
Median abs 2.63%
Bias +1.55%
P25/P75 hit 50.8%
n 120
Rank #6 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=40
Median abs 2.75%
Bias +1.68%
P25/P75 hit 50.8%
n 120
Rank #7 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=240
Median abs 3.7%
Bias +2.90%
P25/P75 hit 51.8%
n 112
Rank #8 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=320
Median abs 3.8%
Bias +2.89%
P25/P75 hit 50%
n 112
Rank #9 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=500
Median abs 3.81%
Bias +2.90%
P25/P75 hit 47.3%
n 112
Rank #10 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=120
Median abs 3.87%
Bias +3.13%
P25/P75 hit 49.1%
n 112
Rank #11 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=160
Median abs 3.91%
Bias +3.10%
P25/P75 hit 48.2%
n 112
Rank #12 Candidate

Best setting 3D · n=500: median projection vs actual return

-2 0 2 -14.00% 0.00% +24.00% US.NWS Median projection 0, actual return -1.30%, runup -1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.FDS Median projection 0.01, actual return +6.43%, runup +6.42%, drawdown -6.42%US.NWSA Median projection -0.06, actual return -1.85%, runup -1.79%, drawdown -1.79%US.CASY Median projection -0.06, actual return +2.74%, runup +2.80%, drawdown -2.80%US.CASY Median projection -0.06, actual return +0.63%, runup +0.69%, drawdown -0.69%US.MRVL Median projection -0.1, actual return +2.50%, runup +2.60%, drawdown -2.60%US.FDS Median projection -0.05, actual return +1.22%, runup +1.27%, drawdown -1.27%US.ETR Median projection -0.08, actual return +0.26%, runup +0.34%, drawdown -0.34%US.CIEN Median projection -0.23, actual return +10.33%, runup +10.56%, drawdown -10.56%US.INTC Median projection -0.15, actual return +17.01%, runup +17.16%, drawdown -17.16%US.SBAC Median projection -0.15, actual return +7.19%, runup +7.34%, drawdown -7.34%US.LITE Median projection -0.11, actual return +8.36%, runup +8.47%, drawdown -8.47%US.SBAC Median projection -0.31, actual return +2.84%, runup +3.15%, drawdown -3.15%US.VRSN Median projection -0.64, actual return -1.69%, runup -1.05%, drawdown -1.05%US.MRVL Median projection -0.31, actual return +9.52%, runup +9.83%, drawdown -9.83%US.STX Median projection -0.34, actual return +10.47%, runup +10.81%, drawdown -10.81%US.UNH Median projection -0.62, actual return -1.10%, runup -0.48%, drawdown -0.48%US.JBL Median projection -0.04, actual return +9.77%, runup +9.81%, drawdown -9.81%US.PNC Median projection -0.54, actual return +3.37%, runup +3.91%, drawdown -3.91%US.HUM Median projection -0.66, actual return -2.54%, runup -1.88%, drawdown -1.88%US.TER Median projection -0.63, actual return +3.30%, runup +3.93%, drawdown -3.93%US.JBL Median projection -0.52, actual return +6.35%, runup +6.87%, drawdown -6.87%US.MPWR Median projection -0.66, actual return +4.52%, runup +5.18%, drawdown -5.18%US.SBAC Median projection -0.65, actual return +0.70%, runup +1.35%, drawdown -1.35%US.JBL Median projection -0.3, actual return +4.42%, runup +4.72%, drawdown -4.72%US.STZ Median projection -0.6, actual return +0.88%, runup +1.48%, drawdown -1.48%US.BF.B Median projection -0.65, actual return -3.63%, runup -2.98%, drawdown -2.98%US.AMZN Median projection -0.66, actual return +6.58%, runup +7.24%, drawdown -7.24%US.JBL Median projection -0.39, actual return +1.82%, runup +2.21%, drawdown -2.21%US.LRCX Median projection -0.3, actual return +0.57%, runup +0.87%, drawdown -0.87%US.STZ Median projection -0.44, actual return -1.32%, runup -0.88%, drawdown -0.88%US.MRVL Median projection -0.45, actual return +4.76%, runup +5.21%, drawdown -5.21%US.BLK Median projection -0.01, actual return +0.13%, runup +0.14%, drawdown -0.14%US.SNDK Median projection -0.25, actual return -3.47%, runup -3.22%, drawdown -3.22%US.DELL Median projection -0.17, actual return +1.74%, runup +1.91%, drawdown -1.91%US.JBL Median projection -0.11, actual return +1.55%, runup +1.66%, drawdown -1.66%US.BLK Median projection 0.1, actual return -0.23%, runup -0.33%, drawdown -0.33%US.JBL Median projection 0.1, actual return +5.14%, runup +5.04%, drawdown -5.04%US.AMZN Median projection -0.09, actual return +0.62%, runup +0.71%, drawdown -0.71%US.A Median projection 0.06, actual return +1.23%, runup +1.17%, drawdown -1.17%US.ORCL Median projection 0.25, actual return +4.58%, runup +4.33%, drawdown -4.33%US.HOOD Median projection 0.42, actual return +4.53%, runup +4.11%, drawdown -4.11%US.DASH Median projection 0.07, actual return +5.48%, runup +5.41%, drawdown -5.41%US.MSFT Median projection 0.25, actual return +1.67%, runup +1.42%, drawdown -1.42%US.CHRW Median projection 0.25, actual return +1.12%, runup +0.87%, drawdown -0.87%US.ON Median projection 0.35, actual return +8.73%, runup +8.38%, drawdown -8.38%US.AMD Median projection 0.36, actual return +2.24%, runup +1.88%, drawdown -1.88%US.ALB Median projection 0.35, actual return -7.98%, runup -8.33%, drawdown -8.33%US.EXPE Median projection 0.62, actual return -0.47%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.JBL Median projection 0.89, actual return +4.57%, runup +3.68%, drawdown -3.68%US.ADI Median projection 0.61, actual return +2.68%, runup +2.07%, drawdown -2.07%US.A Median projection 0.35, actual return -1.15%, runup -1.50%, drawdown -1.50%US.ADI Median projection 0.73, actual return +5.99%, runup +5.26%, drawdown -5.26%US.JBL Median projection 0.87, actual return +2.50%, runup +1.63%, drawdown -1.63%US.STLD Median projection 0.54, actual return +7.50%, runup +6.96%, drawdown -6.96%US.TGT Median projection 0.34, actual return -0.01%, runup -0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.NTRS Median projection 0.95, actual return -4.50%, runup -5.45%, drawdown -5.45%US.NTAP Median projection 0.7, actual return -2.76%, runup -3.46%, drawdown -3.46%US.STLD Median projection 0.7, actual return +2.99%, runup +2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.HPQ Median projection 0.95, actual return -6.16%, runup -7.11%, drawdown -7.11%US.MAS Median projection 0.56, actual return +0.38%, runup -0.18%, drawdown -0.18%US.ISRG Median projection 0.32, actual return -2.61%, runup -2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.GEV Median projection 0.54, actual return -0.65%, runup -1.19%, drawdown -1.19%US.STLD Median projection 0.41, actual return -1.06%, runup -1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.CSX Median projection 0.36, actual return -2.06%, runup -2.42%, drawdown -2.42%US.DOV Median projection 0.23, actual return -1.76%, runup -1.99%, drawdown -1.99%US.WST Median projection 0.22, actual return -5.67%, runup -5.89%, drawdown -5.89%US.TXN Median projection 0.62, actual return -6.10%, runup -6.72%, drawdown -6.72%US.QCOM Median projection 0.81, actual return +4.80%, runup +3.99%, drawdown -3.99%US.BKR Median projection 0.59, actual return -0.19%, runup -0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.AMD Median projection 1.15, actual return -3.08%, runup -4.23%, drawdown -4.23%US.SNPS Median projection 1.09, actual return -3.91%, runup -5.00%, drawdown -5.00%US.CNC Median projection 0.22, actual return +23.43%, runup +23.21%, drawdown -23.21%US.ELV Median projection 0.24, actual return +5.70%, runup +5.46%, drawdown -5.46%US.SNDK Median projection 1.11, actual return +2.46%, runup +1.35%, drawdown -1.35%US.NVDA Median projection 0.78, actual return -7.87%, runup -8.65%, drawdown -8.65%US.ESS Median projection 0.14, actual return -1.69%, runup -1.83%, drawdown -1.83%US.CNC Median projection 0.39, actual return +7.61%, runup +7.22%, drawdown -7.22%US.AVB Median projection 0.01, actual return -0.03%, runup -0.04%, drawdown -0.04%US.EQR Median projection 0.14, actual return +0.03%, runup -0.11%, drawdown -0.11%US.GNRC Median projection 0.31, actual return +1.64%, runup +1.33%, drawdown -1.33%US.NXPI Median projection 0.67, actual return +0.52%, runup -0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.CNC Median projection 0.41, actual return -0.78%, runup -1.19%, drawdown -1.19%US.EQR Median projection 0.14, actual return -0.29%, runup -0.43%, drawdown -0.43%US.PWR Median projection 0.09, actual return +6.02%, runup +5.93%, drawdown -5.93%US.CAT Median projection 0.09, actual return +1.63%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.GOOGL Median projection 0.27, actual return +0.94%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.QCOM Median projection 0.46, actual return +3.88%, runup +3.42%, drawdown -3.42%US.SNDK Median projection 0.72, actual return +18.79%, runup +18.07%, drawdown -18.07%US.PWR Median projection 0.14, actual return +5.80%, runup +5.66%, drawdown -5.66%US.STX Median projection 0.86, actual return +8.18%, runup +7.32%, drawdown -7.32%US.FRT Median projection 0.28, actual return +1.26%, runup +0.98%, drawdown -0.98%US.TSN Median projection 0.4, actual return -1.18%, runup -1.58%, drawdown -1.58%US.PWR Median projection 0.22, actual return -0.87%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.ADM Median projection 0.44, actual return +1.65%, runup +1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.CBOE Median projection 0.56, actual return -0.08%, runup -0.64%, drawdown -0.64%US.ADM Median projection 0.36, actual return -1.93%, runup -2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.DD Median projection 0.28, actual return +1.06%, runup +0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.J Median projection 0.2, actual return -13.27%, runup -13.47%, drawdown -13.47%US.SWKS Median projection 0.94, actual return -7.97%, runup -8.91%, drawdown -8.91%US.SMCI Median projection 1.09, actual return -3.29%, runup -4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.RVTY Median projection 0.36, actual return -0.14%, runup -0.50%, drawdown -0.50%US.JBL Median projection 0.71, actual return -1.91%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.DVA Median projection 0.36, actual return +2.60%, runup +2.24%, drawdown -2.24%US.VTRS Median projection 0.32, actual return -1.27%, runup -1.59%, drawdown -1.59%US.APP Median projection 1.19, actual return -1.64%, runup -2.83%, drawdown -2.83%US.HWM Median projection 0.26, actual return -1.02%, runup -1.28%, drawdown -1.28%US.FTNT Median projection 1.15, actual return +5.46%, runup +4.31%, drawdown -4.31%US.PANW Median projection 1.27, actual return +9.58%, runup +8.31%, drawdown -8.31%US.GEN Median projection 1.26, actual return +2.69%, runup +1.43%, drawdown -1.43%US.FTNT Median projection 1.26, actual return +3.17%, runup +1.91%, drawdown -1.91%US.MNST Median projection 0.44, actual return -0.42%, runup -0.86%, drawdown -0.86%US.FSLR Median projection 1.63, actual return -0.71%, runup -2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.FOXA Median projection 0.53, actual return -3.54%, runup -4.07%, drawdown -4.07%US.COHR Median projection 1.58, actual return +6.65%, runup +5.07%, drawdown -5.07%US.FOX Median projection 0.56, actual return -4.22%, runup -4.78%, drawdown -4.78%US.PM Median projection 0.49, actual return +1.43%, runup +0.94%, drawdown -0.94%US.CVS Median projection 0.46, actual return +0.78%, runup +0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.PANW Median projection 1.58, actual return +12.63%, runup +11.05%, drawdown -11.05%US.Q Median projection 1.58, actual return -6.61%, runup -8.19%, drawdown -8.19% Bucket avg Median projection -0.3, actual return +3.10%, n 35Bucket avg Median projection 0.5, actual return +1.13%, n 85 Corr -0.10 R² 1.0% n 120 Median projection return Actual return

X = Median projection return. Y = actual return. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +1.70%

Best setting 3D · n=500: median projection vs forecast error

-2 0 2 -14.00% 0.00% +24.00% US.NWS Median projection 0, forecast error -1.30%, runup -1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.FDS Median projection 0.01, forecast error +6.42%, runup +6.42%, drawdown -6.42%US.NWSA Median projection -0.06, forecast error -1.79%, runup -1.79%, drawdown -1.79%US.CASY Median projection -0.06, forecast error +2.80%, runup +2.80%, drawdown -2.80%US.CASY Median projection -0.06, forecast error +0.69%, runup +0.69%, drawdown -0.69%US.MRVL Median projection -0.1, forecast error +2.60%, runup +2.60%, drawdown -2.60%US.FDS Median projection -0.05, forecast error +1.27%, runup +1.27%, drawdown -1.27%US.ETR Median projection -0.08, forecast error +0.34%, runup +0.34%, drawdown -0.34%US.CIEN Median projection -0.23, forecast error +10.56%, runup +10.56%, drawdown -10.56%US.INTC Median projection -0.15, forecast error +17.16%, runup +17.16%, drawdown -17.16%US.SBAC Median projection -0.15, forecast error +7.34%, runup +7.34%, drawdown -7.34%US.LITE Median projection -0.11, forecast error +8.47%, runup +8.47%, drawdown -8.47%US.SBAC Median projection -0.31, forecast error +3.15%, runup +3.15%, drawdown -3.15%US.VRSN Median projection -0.64, forecast error -1.05%, runup -1.05%, drawdown -1.05%US.MRVL Median projection -0.31, forecast error +9.83%, runup +9.83%, drawdown -9.83%US.STX Median projection -0.34, forecast error +10.81%, runup +10.81%, drawdown -10.81%US.UNH Median projection -0.62, forecast error -0.48%, runup -0.48%, drawdown -0.48%US.JBL Median projection -0.04, forecast error +9.81%, runup +9.81%, drawdown -9.81%US.PNC Median projection -0.54, forecast error +3.91%, runup +3.91%, drawdown -3.91%US.HUM Median projection -0.66, forecast error -1.88%, runup -1.88%, drawdown -1.88%US.TER Median projection -0.63, forecast error +3.93%, runup +3.93%, drawdown -3.93%US.JBL Median projection -0.52, forecast error +6.87%, runup +6.87%, drawdown -6.87%US.MPWR Median projection -0.66, forecast error +5.18%, runup +5.18%, drawdown -5.18%US.SBAC Median projection -0.65, forecast error +1.35%, runup +1.35%, drawdown -1.35%US.JBL Median projection -0.3, forecast error +4.72%, runup +4.72%, drawdown -4.72%US.STZ Median projection -0.6, forecast error +1.48%, runup +1.48%, drawdown -1.48%US.BF.B Median projection -0.65, forecast error -2.98%, runup -2.98%, drawdown -2.98%US.AMZN Median projection -0.66, forecast error +7.24%, runup +7.24%, drawdown -7.24%US.JBL Median projection -0.39, forecast error +2.21%, runup +2.21%, drawdown -2.21%US.LRCX Median projection -0.3, forecast error +0.87%, runup +0.87%, drawdown -0.87%US.STZ Median projection -0.44, forecast error -0.88%, runup -0.88%, drawdown -0.88%US.MRVL Median projection -0.45, forecast error +5.21%, runup +5.21%, drawdown -5.21%US.BLK Median projection -0.01, forecast error +0.14%, runup +0.14%, drawdown -0.14%US.SNDK Median projection -0.25, forecast error -3.22%, runup -3.22%, drawdown -3.22%US.DELL Median projection -0.17, forecast error +1.91%, runup +1.91%, drawdown -1.91%US.JBL Median projection -0.11, forecast error +1.66%, runup +1.66%, drawdown -1.66%US.BLK Median projection 0.1, forecast error -0.33%, runup -0.33%, drawdown -0.33%US.JBL Median projection 0.1, forecast error +5.04%, runup +5.04%, drawdown -5.04%US.AMZN Median projection -0.09, forecast error +0.71%, runup +0.71%, drawdown -0.71%US.A Median projection 0.06, forecast error +1.17%, runup +1.17%, drawdown -1.17%US.ORCL Median projection 0.25, forecast error +4.33%, runup +4.33%, drawdown -4.33%US.HOOD Median projection 0.42, forecast error +4.11%, runup +4.11%, drawdown -4.11%US.DASH Median projection 0.07, forecast error +5.41%, runup +5.41%, drawdown -5.41%US.MSFT Median projection 0.25, forecast error +1.42%, runup +1.42%, drawdown -1.42%US.CHRW Median projection 0.25, forecast error +0.87%, runup +0.87%, drawdown -0.87%US.ON Median projection 0.35, forecast error +8.38%, runup +8.38%, drawdown -8.38%US.AMD Median projection 0.36, forecast error +1.88%, runup +1.88%, drawdown -1.88%US.ALB Median projection 0.35, forecast error -8.33%, runup -8.33%, drawdown -8.33%US.EXPE Median projection 0.62, forecast error -1.09%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.JBL Median projection 0.89, forecast error +3.68%, runup +3.68%, drawdown -3.68%US.ADI Median projection 0.61, forecast error +2.07%, runup +2.07%, drawdown -2.07%US.A Median projection 0.35, forecast error -1.50%, runup -1.50%, drawdown -1.50%US.ADI Median projection 0.73, forecast error +5.26%, runup +5.26%, drawdown -5.26%US.JBL Median projection 0.87, forecast error +1.63%, runup +1.63%, drawdown -1.63%US.STLD Median projection 0.54, forecast error +6.96%, runup +6.96%, drawdown -6.96%US.TGT Median projection 0.34, forecast error -0.35%, runup -0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.NTRS Median projection 0.95, forecast error -5.45%, runup -5.45%, drawdown -5.45%US.NTAP Median projection 0.7, forecast error -3.46%, runup -3.46%, drawdown -3.46%US.STLD Median projection 0.7, forecast error +2.29%, runup +2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.HPQ Median projection 0.95, forecast error -7.11%, runup -7.11%, drawdown -7.11%US.MAS Median projection 0.56, forecast error -0.18%, runup -0.18%, drawdown -0.18%US.ISRG Median projection 0.32, forecast error -2.93%, runup -2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.GEV Median projection 0.54, forecast error -1.19%, runup -1.19%, drawdown -1.19%US.STLD Median projection 0.41, forecast error -1.47%, runup -1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.CSX Median projection 0.36, forecast error -2.42%, runup -2.42%, drawdown -2.42%US.DOV Median projection 0.23, forecast error -1.99%, runup -1.99%, drawdown -1.99%US.WST Median projection 0.22, forecast error -5.89%, runup -5.89%, drawdown -5.89%US.TXN Median projection 0.62, forecast error -6.72%, runup -6.72%, drawdown -6.72%US.QCOM Median projection 0.81, forecast error +3.99%, runup +3.99%, drawdown -3.99%US.BKR Median projection 0.59, forecast error -0.78%, runup -0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.AMD Median projection 1.15, forecast error -4.23%, runup -4.23%, drawdown -4.23%US.SNPS Median projection 1.09, forecast error -5.00%, runup -5.00%, drawdown -5.00%US.CNC Median projection 0.22, forecast error +23.21%, runup +23.21%, drawdown -23.21%US.ELV Median projection 0.24, forecast error +5.46%, runup +5.46%, drawdown -5.46%US.SNDK Median projection 1.11, forecast error +1.35%, runup +1.35%, drawdown -1.35%US.NVDA Median projection 0.78, forecast error -8.65%, runup -8.65%, drawdown -8.65%US.ESS Median projection 0.14, forecast error -1.83%, runup -1.83%, drawdown -1.83%US.CNC Median projection 0.39, forecast error +7.22%, runup +7.22%, drawdown -7.22%US.AVB Median projection 0.01, forecast error -0.04%, runup -0.04%, drawdown -0.04%US.EQR Median projection 0.14, forecast error -0.11%, runup -0.11%, drawdown -0.11%US.GNRC Median projection 0.31, forecast error +1.33%, runup +1.33%, drawdown -1.33%US.NXPI Median projection 0.67, forecast error -0.15%, runup -0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.CNC Median projection 0.41, forecast error -1.19%, runup -1.19%, drawdown -1.19%US.EQR Median projection 0.14, forecast error -0.43%, runup -0.43%, drawdown -0.43%US.PWR Median projection 0.09, forecast error +5.93%, runup +5.93%, drawdown -5.93%US.CAT Median projection 0.09, forecast error +1.54%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.GOOGL Median projection 0.27, forecast error +0.67%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.QCOM Median projection 0.46, forecast error +3.42%, runup +3.42%, drawdown -3.42%US.SNDK Median projection 0.72, forecast error +18.07%, runup +18.07%, drawdown -18.07%US.PWR Median projection 0.14, forecast error +5.66%, runup +5.66%, drawdown -5.66%US.STX Median projection 0.86, forecast error +7.32%, runup +7.32%, drawdown -7.32%US.FRT Median projection 0.28, forecast error +0.98%, runup +0.98%, drawdown -0.98%US.TSN Median projection 0.4, forecast error -1.58%, runup -1.58%, drawdown -1.58%US.PWR Median projection 0.22, forecast error -1.09%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.ADM Median projection 0.44, forecast error +1.21%, runup +1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.CBOE Median projection 0.56, forecast error -0.64%, runup -0.64%, drawdown -0.64%US.ADM Median projection 0.36, forecast error -2.29%, runup -2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.DD Median projection 0.28, forecast error +0.78%, runup +0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.J Median projection 0.2, forecast error -13.47%, runup -13.47%, drawdown -13.47%US.SWKS Median projection 0.94, forecast error -8.91%, runup -8.91%, drawdown -8.91%US.SMCI Median projection 1.09, forecast error -4.38%, runup -4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.RVTY Median projection 0.36, forecast error -0.50%, runup -0.50%, drawdown -0.50%US.JBL Median projection 0.71, forecast error -2.62%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.DVA Median projection 0.36, forecast error +2.24%, runup +2.24%, drawdown -2.24%US.VTRS Median projection 0.32, forecast error -1.59%, runup -1.59%, drawdown -1.59%US.APP Median projection 1.19, forecast error -2.83%, runup -2.83%, drawdown -2.83%US.HWM Median projection 0.26, forecast error -1.28%, runup -1.28%, drawdown -1.28%US.FTNT Median projection 1.15, forecast error +4.31%, runup +4.31%, drawdown -4.31%US.PANW Median projection 1.27, forecast error +8.31%, runup +8.31%, drawdown -8.31%US.GEN Median projection 1.26, forecast error +1.43%, runup +1.43%, drawdown -1.43%US.FTNT Median projection 1.26, forecast error +1.91%, runup +1.91%, drawdown -1.91%US.MNST Median projection 0.44, forecast error -0.86%, runup -0.86%, drawdown -0.86%US.FSLR Median projection 1.63, forecast error -2.34%, runup -2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.FOXA Median projection 0.53, forecast error -4.07%, runup -4.07%, drawdown -4.07%US.COHR Median projection 1.58, forecast error +5.07%, runup +5.07%, drawdown -5.07%US.FOX Median projection 0.56, forecast error -4.78%, runup -4.78%, drawdown -4.78%US.PM Median projection 0.49, forecast error +0.94%, runup +0.94%, drawdown -0.94%US.CVS Median projection 0.46, forecast error +0.32%, runup +0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.PANW Median projection 1.58, forecast error +11.05%, runup +11.05%, drawdown -11.05%US.Q Median projection 1.58, forecast error -8.19%, runup -8.19%, drawdown -8.19% Bucket avg Median projection -0.3, forecast error +3.43%, n 35Bucket avg Median projection 0.5, forecast error +0.58%, n 85 Corr -0.20 R² 4.0% n 120 Median projection return Actual - median

X = Median projection return. Y = actual - median. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +1.41%

DOE ranking

Ranked by a composite DOE score: lower median/mean absolute error, lower bias, enough anchors, and better IQR coverage.

Rank Horizon n Median abs Mean abs Bias Inside P25/P75 Anchors DOE score
#1 3D 500 2.38% 3.87% +1.41% 51.7% 120 2.627
#2 3D 320 2.45% 3.86% +1.42% 52.5% 120 2.658
#3 3D 240 2.6% 3.84% +1.40% 53.3% 120 2.721
#4 3D 120 2.63% 3.86% +1.44% 56.7% 120 2.74
#5 3D 160 2.66% 3.86% +1.46% 52.5% 120 2.769
#6 3D 80 2.63% 3.95% +1.55% 50.8% 120 2.803
#7 3D 40 2.75% 4.02% +1.68% 50.8% 120 2.907
#8 5D 240 3.7% 5.65% +2.90% 51.8% 112 4.133
#9 5D 320 3.8% 5.65% +2.89% 50% 112 4.186
#10 5D 500 3.81% 5.63% +2.90% 47.3% 112 4.192
#11 5D 120 3.87% 5.84% +3.13% 49.1% 112 4.326
#12 5D 160 3.91% 5.82% +3.10% 48.2% 112 4.337
#13 5D 80 3.86% 6.03% +3.32% 48.2% 112 4.418
#14 5D 40 4.13% 6.16% +3.51% 40.2% 112 4.647
#15 10D 240 5.4% 9.36% +7.07% 52.2% 92 6.906
#16 10D 320 5.57% 9.26% +7.14% 52.2% 92 6.967
#17 10D 160 5.66% 9.48% +6.98% 54.3% 92 7.059
#18 10D 500 5.68% 9.28% +7.30% 47.8% 92 7.063
#19 10D 120 5.93% 9.65% +6.99% 51.1% 92 7.263
#20 10D 80 6.07% 9.99% +7.16% 47.8% 92 7.486
#21 10D 40 6.19% 10.13% +7.50% 43.5% 92 7.657
#22 15D 120 8.35% 13.4% +11.00% 38.9% 72 10.418
#23 15D 500 8.79% 13.3% +11.11% 36.1% 72 10.626
#24 15D 80 8.72% 13.67% +10.66% 37.5% 72 10.65
#25 15D 40 8.94% 14.01% +10.27% 34.7% 72 10.827
#26 15D 320 9.24% 13.28% +11.12% 37.5% 72 10.842
#27 15D 160 9.37% 13.42% +11.13% 37.5% 72 10.958
#28 15D 240 9.51% 13.27% +11.12% 37.5% 72 10.974
#29 20D 80 12.68% 21.26% +18.95% 26.9% 52 16.556
#30 20D 120 12.75% 21.2% +18.81% 17.3% 52 16.573