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Rolling projection DOE

Find the projection setup whose median is closest to actual outcomes.

Replay completed anchors and rank horizon × sample-size settings by projection error.

Snapshot 2026-05-12
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-05-12
Window 2026-03-26 → 2026-05-07
Anchors 120
Lookback 730D
Confidence low
Computed at 2026年6月25日 上午5:17 HKT
Point-in-time Point-in-time safe

Best rolling setting

3D · n=500

DOE results snapshot · Window: 2026-03-26 → 2026-05-07 · anchors: 120 · latest snapshot: 2026-05-12 · computed at: 2026年6月25日 上午5:17 HKT

Median abs error2.52%
Mean abs error3.78%
Bias+1.17%
Inside P25/P7550.8%

DOE setting comparison

Same idea as score-vs-outcome analysis: compare each parameter setting by observed actual-minus-median error over rolling completed anchors. Lower median abs error and lower bias win.

Setting Median abs Bias P25/P75 hit n Read
Setting 3D · n=500
Median abs 2.52%
Bias +1.17%
P25/P75 hit 50.8%
n 120
Rank Best setting
Setting 3D · n=120
Median abs 2.59%
Bias +1.20%
P25/P75 hit 55.8%
n 120
Rank #2 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=320
Median abs 2.65%
Bias +1.18%
P25/P75 hit 50.8%
n 120
Rank #3 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=240
Median abs 2.71%
Bias +1.14%
P25/P75 hit 52.5%
n 120
Rank #4 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=160
Median abs 2.67%
Bias +1.19%
P25/P75 hit 51.7%
n 120
Rank #5 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=80
Median abs 2.59%
Bias +1.33%
P25/P75 hit 52.5%
n 120
Rank #6 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=40
Median abs 2.84%
Bias +1.39%
P25/P75 hit 49.2%
n 120
Rank #7 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=320
Median abs 3.51%
Bias +2.65%
P25/P75 hit 50.9%
n 112
Rank #8 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=240
Median abs 3.52%
Bias +2.66%
P25/P75 hit 52.7%
n 112
Rank #9 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=500
Median abs 3.66%
Bias +2.66%
P25/P75 hit 49.1%
n 112
Rank #10 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=160
Median abs 3.67%
Bias +2.83%
P25/P75 hit 48.2%
n 112
Rank #11 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=120
Median abs 3.76%
Bias +2.88%
P25/P75 hit 49.1%
n 112
Rank #12 Candidate

Best setting 3D · n=500: median projection vs actual return

-2 0 2 -14.00% 0.00% +24.00% US.BF.B Median projection 0.26, actual return +2.72%, runup +2.46%, drawdown -2.46%US.FANG Median projection 0.53, actual return -2.18%, runup -2.71%, drawdown -2.71%US.APA Median projection 0.84, actual return -0.84%, runup -1.68%, drawdown -1.68%US.OXY Median projection 0.26, actual return +0.99%, runup +0.73%, drawdown -0.73%US.XOM Median projection 0.42, actual return -5.97%, runup -6.39%, drawdown -6.39%US.ETR Median projection 0.2, actual return +3.37%, runup +3.17%, drawdown -3.17%US.APA Median projection 0.69, actual return -6.85%, runup -7.54%, drawdown -7.54%US.BG Median projection 0.19, actual return -0.31%, runup -0.50%, drawdown -0.50%US.CTVA Median projection 0.16, actual return +3.03%, runup +2.87%, drawdown -2.87%US.NWS Median projection 0.06, actual return -0.74%, runup -0.80%, drawdown -0.80%US.CF Median projection 0.3, actual return -5.55%, runup -5.85%, drawdown -5.85%US.LYB Median projection 0.4, actual return -3.37%, runup -3.77%, drawdown -3.77%US.CASY Median projection 0.05, actual return +2.74%, runup +2.69%, drawdown -2.69%US.FDS Median projection 0.06, actual return +6.43%, runup +6.37%, drawdown -6.37%US.NWSA Median projection 0.03, actual return -1.85%, runup -1.88%, drawdown -1.88%US.NWS Median projection 0, actual return -1.30%, runup -1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.CASY Median projection -0.06, actual return +0.63%, runup +0.69%, drawdown -0.69%US.MRVL Median projection -0.08, actual return +2.50%, runup +2.58%, drawdown -2.58%US.FDS Median projection -0.11, actual return +1.22%, runup +1.33%, drawdown -1.33%US.ETR Median projection -0.09, actual return +0.26%, runup +0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.CIEN Median projection -0.23, actual return +10.33%, runup +10.56%, drawdown -10.56%US.INTC Median projection -0.15, actual return +17.01%, runup +17.16%, drawdown -17.16%US.SBAC Median projection -0.15, actual return +7.19%, runup +7.34%, drawdown -7.34%US.LITE Median projection -0.11, actual return +8.36%, runup +8.47%, drawdown -8.47%US.STX Median projection -0.34, actual return +10.47%, runup +10.81%, drawdown -10.81%US.VRSN Median projection -0.64, actual return -1.69%, runup -1.05%, drawdown -1.05%US.MRVL Median projection -0.31, actual return +9.52%, runup +9.83%, drawdown -9.83%US.SBAC Median projection -0.31, actual return +2.84%, runup +3.15%, drawdown -3.15%US.HUM Median projection -0.66, actual return -2.54%, runup -1.88%, drawdown -1.88%US.JBL Median projection 0, actual return +9.77%, runup +9.77%, drawdown -9.77%US.PNC Median projection -0.54, actual return +3.37%, runup +3.91%, drawdown -3.91%US.UNH Median projection -0.62, actual return -1.10%, runup -0.48%, drawdown -0.48%US.TER Median projection -0.63, actual return +3.30%, runup +3.93%, drawdown -3.93%US.JBL Median projection -0.52, actual return +6.35%, runup +6.87%, drawdown -6.87%US.MPWR Median projection -0.66, actual return +4.52%, runup +5.18%, drawdown -5.18%US.SBAC Median projection -0.65, actual return +0.70%, runup +1.35%, drawdown -1.35%US.AMZN Median projection -0.66, actual return +6.58%, runup +7.24%, drawdown -7.24%US.STZ Median projection -0.6, actual return +0.88%, runup +1.48%, drawdown -1.48%US.BF.B Median projection -0.65, actual return -3.63%, runup -2.98%, drawdown -2.98%US.JBL Median projection -0.31, actual return +4.42%, runup +4.73%, drawdown -4.73%US.MRVL Median projection -0.54, actual return +4.76%, runup +5.30%, drawdown -5.30%US.LRCX Median projection -0.34, actual return +0.57%, runup +0.91%, drawdown -0.91%US.STZ Median projection -0.36, actual return -1.32%, runup -0.96%, drawdown -0.96%US.JBL Median projection -0.41, actual return +1.82%, runup +2.23%, drawdown -2.23%US.DELL Median projection -0.15, actual return +1.74%, runup +1.89%, drawdown -1.89%US.SNDK Median projection -0.25, actual return -3.47%, runup -3.22%, drawdown -3.22%US.BLK Median projection 0.02, actual return +0.13%, runup +0.11%, drawdown -0.11%US.JBL Median projection -0.11, actual return +1.55%, runup +1.66%, drawdown -1.66%US.BLK Median projection 0.1, actual return -0.23%, runup -0.33%, drawdown -0.33%US.JBL Median projection 0.1, actual return +5.14%, runup +5.04%, drawdown -5.04%US.AMZN Median projection -0.09, actual return +0.62%, runup +0.71%, drawdown -0.71%US.A Median projection 0.06, actual return +1.23%, runup +1.17%, drawdown -1.17%US.ORCL Median projection 0.2, actual return +4.58%, runup +4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.HOOD Median projection 0.39, actual return +4.53%, runup +4.14%, drawdown -4.14%US.DASH Median projection 0.05, actual return +5.48%, runup +5.43%, drawdown -5.43%US.MSFT Median projection 0.16, actual return +1.67%, runup +1.51%, drawdown -1.51%US.ALB Median projection 0.35, actual return -7.98%, runup -8.33%, drawdown -8.33%US.CHRW Median projection 0.25, actual return +1.12%, runup +0.87%, drawdown -0.87%US.AMD Median projection 0.35, actual return +2.24%, runup +1.89%, drawdown -1.89%US.ON Median projection 0.33, actual return +8.73%, runup +8.40%, drawdown -8.40%US.A Median projection 0.35, actual return -1.15%, runup -1.50%, drawdown -1.50%US.JBL Median projection 0.89, actual return +4.57%, runup +3.68%, drawdown -3.68%US.ADI Median projection 0.61, actual return +2.68%, runup +2.07%, drawdown -2.07%US.EXPE Median projection 0.62, actual return -0.47%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.ADI Median projection 0.73, actual return +5.99%, runup +5.26%, drawdown -5.26%US.JBL Median projection 0.87, actual return +2.50%, runup +1.63%, drawdown -1.63%US.STLD Median projection 0.54, actual return +7.50%, runup +6.96%, drawdown -6.96%US.TGT Median projection 0.32, actual return -0.01%, runup -0.33%, drawdown -0.33%US.NTAP Median projection 0.7, actual return -2.76%, runup -3.46%, drawdown -3.46%US.HPQ Median projection 0.95, actual return -6.16%, runup -7.11%, drawdown -7.11%US.STLD Median projection 0.7, actual return +2.99%, runup +2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.NTRS Median projection 0.95, actual return -4.50%, runup -5.45%, drawdown -5.45%US.STLD Median projection 0.41, actual return -1.06%, runup -1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.GEV Median projection 0.56, actual return -0.65%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.ISRG Median projection 0.32, actual return -2.61%, runup -2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.MAS Median projection 0.59, actual return +0.38%, runup -0.21%, drawdown -0.21%US.TXN Median projection 0.6, actual return -6.10%, runup -6.70%, drawdown -6.70%US.WST Median projection 0.22, actual return -5.67%, runup -5.89%, drawdown -5.89%US.DOV Median projection 0.23, actual return -1.76%, runup -1.99%, drawdown -1.99%US.CSX Median projection 0.37, actual return -2.06%, runup -2.43%, drawdown -2.43%US.QCOM Median projection 0.81, actual return +4.80%, runup +3.99%, drawdown -3.99%US.BKR Median projection 0.59, actual return -0.19%, runup -0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.AMD Median projection 1.15, actual return -3.08%, runup -4.23%, drawdown -4.23%US.SNPS Median projection 1.06, actual return -3.91%, runup -4.97%, drawdown -4.97%US.SNDK Median projection 1.15, actual return +2.46%, runup +1.31%, drawdown -1.31%US.CNC Median projection 0.24, actual return +23.43%, runup +23.19%, drawdown -23.19%US.ELV Median projection 0.33, actual return +5.70%, runup +5.37%, drawdown -5.37%US.NVDA Median projection 0.74, actual return -7.87%, runup -8.61%, drawdown -8.61%US.ESS Median projection 0.14, actual return -1.69%, runup -1.83%, drawdown -1.83%US.EQR Median projection 0.14, actual return +0.03%, runup -0.11%, drawdown -0.11%US.CNC Median projection 0.39, actual return +7.61%, runup +7.22%, drawdown -7.22%US.AVB Median projection 0.01, actual return -0.03%, runup -0.04%, drawdown -0.04%US.EQR Median projection 0.12, actual return -0.29%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.GNRC Median projection 0.34, actual return +1.64%, runup +1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.NXPI Median projection 0.78, actual return +0.52%, runup -0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.CNC Median projection 0.44, actual return -0.78%, runup -1.22%, drawdown -1.22%US.CAT Median projection 0.09, actual return +1.63%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.PWR Median projection 0.09, actual return +6.02%, runup +5.93%, drawdown -5.93%US.GOOGL Median projection 0.27, actual return +0.94%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.QCOM Median projection 0.46, actual return +3.88%, runup +3.42%, drawdown -3.42%US.SNDK Median projection 0.72, actual return +18.79%, runup +18.07%, drawdown -18.07%US.STX Median projection 0.86, actual return +8.18%, runup +7.32%, drawdown -7.32%US.PWR Median projection 0.14, actual return +5.80%, runup +5.66%, drawdown -5.66%US.FRT Median projection 0.28, actual return +1.26%, runup +0.98%, drawdown -0.98%US.PWR Median projection 0.22, actual return -0.87%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.ADM Median projection 0.44, actual return +1.65%, runup +1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.CBOE Median projection 0.56, actual return -0.08%, runup -0.64%, drawdown -0.64%US.TSN Median projection 0.4, actual return -1.18%, runup -1.58%, drawdown -1.58%US.J Median projection 0.2, actual return -13.27%, runup -13.47%, drawdown -13.47%US.DD Median projection 0.29, actual return +1.06%, runup +0.77%, drawdown -0.77%US.SWKS Median projection 0.94, actual return -7.97%, runup -8.91%, drawdown -8.91%US.ADM Median projection 0.36, actual return -1.93%, runup -2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.DVA Median projection 0.36, actual return +2.60%, runup +2.24%, drawdown -2.24%US.JBL Median projection 0.71, actual return -1.91%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.RVTY Median projection 0.36, actual return -0.14%, runup -0.50%, drawdown -0.50%US.SMCI Median projection 1.09, actual return -3.29%, runup -4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.FTNT Median projection 1.15, actual return +5.46%, runup +4.31%, drawdown -4.31%US.HWM Median projection 0.26, actual return -1.02%, runup -1.28%, drawdown -1.28%US.APP Median projection 1.19, actual return -1.64%, runup -2.83%, drawdown -2.83%US.VTRS Median projection 0.32, actual return -1.27%, runup -1.59%, drawdown -1.59% Bucket avg Median projection -0.4, actual return +3.15%, n 31Bucket avg Median projection 0.4, actual return +0.78%, n 89 Corr -0.20 R² 3.9% n 120 Median projection return Actual return

X = Median projection return. Y = actual return. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +1.39%

Best setting 3D · n=500: median projection vs forecast error

-2 0 2 -14.00% 0.00% +24.00% US.BF.B Median projection 0.26, forecast error +2.46%, runup +2.46%, drawdown -2.46%US.FANG Median projection 0.53, forecast error -2.71%, runup -2.71%, drawdown -2.71%US.APA Median projection 0.84, forecast error -1.68%, runup -1.68%, drawdown -1.68%US.OXY Median projection 0.26, forecast error +0.73%, runup +0.73%, drawdown -0.73%US.XOM Median projection 0.42, forecast error -6.39%, runup -6.39%, drawdown -6.39%US.ETR Median projection 0.2, forecast error +3.17%, runup +3.17%, drawdown -3.17%US.APA Median projection 0.69, forecast error -7.54%, runup -7.54%, drawdown -7.54%US.BG Median projection 0.19, forecast error -0.50%, runup -0.50%, drawdown -0.50%US.CTVA Median projection 0.16, forecast error +2.87%, runup +2.87%, drawdown -2.87%US.NWS Median projection 0.06, forecast error -0.80%, runup -0.80%, drawdown -0.80%US.CF Median projection 0.3, forecast error -5.85%, runup -5.85%, drawdown -5.85%US.LYB Median projection 0.4, forecast error -3.77%, runup -3.77%, drawdown -3.77%US.CASY Median projection 0.05, forecast error +2.69%, runup +2.69%, drawdown -2.69%US.FDS Median projection 0.06, forecast error +6.37%, runup +6.37%, drawdown -6.37%US.NWSA Median projection 0.03, forecast error -1.88%, runup -1.88%, drawdown -1.88%US.NWS Median projection 0, forecast error -1.30%, runup -1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.CASY Median projection -0.06, forecast error +0.69%, runup +0.69%, drawdown -0.69%US.MRVL Median projection -0.08, forecast error +2.58%, runup +2.58%, drawdown -2.58%US.FDS Median projection -0.11, forecast error +1.33%, runup +1.33%, drawdown -1.33%US.ETR Median projection -0.09, forecast error +0.35%, runup +0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.CIEN Median projection -0.23, forecast error +10.56%, runup +10.56%, drawdown -10.56%US.INTC Median projection -0.15, forecast error +17.16%, runup +17.16%, drawdown -17.16%US.SBAC Median projection -0.15, forecast error +7.34%, runup +7.34%, drawdown -7.34%US.LITE Median projection -0.11, forecast error +8.47%, runup +8.47%, drawdown -8.47%US.STX Median projection -0.34, forecast error +10.81%, runup +10.81%, drawdown -10.81%US.VRSN Median projection -0.64, forecast error -1.05%, runup -1.05%, drawdown -1.05%US.MRVL Median projection -0.31, forecast error +9.83%, runup +9.83%, drawdown -9.83%US.SBAC Median projection -0.31, forecast error +3.15%, runup +3.15%, drawdown -3.15%US.HUM Median projection -0.66, forecast error -1.88%, runup -1.88%, drawdown -1.88%US.JBL Median projection 0, forecast error +9.77%, runup +9.77%, drawdown -9.77%US.PNC Median projection -0.54, forecast error +3.91%, runup +3.91%, drawdown -3.91%US.UNH Median projection -0.62, forecast error -0.48%, runup -0.48%, drawdown -0.48%US.TER Median projection -0.63, forecast error +3.93%, runup +3.93%, drawdown -3.93%US.JBL Median projection -0.52, forecast error +6.87%, runup +6.87%, drawdown -6.87%US.MPWR Median projection -0.66, forecast error +5.18%, runup +5.18%, drawdown -5.18%US.SBAC Median projection -0.65, forecast error +1.35%, runup +1.35%, drawdown -1.35%US.AMZN Median projection -0.66, forecast error +7.24%, runup +7.24%, drawdown -7.24%US.STZ Median projection -0.6, forecast error +1.48%, runup +1.48%, drawdown -1.48%US.BF.B Median projection -0.65, forecast error -2.98%, runup -2.98%, drawdown -2.98%US.JBL Median projection -0.31, forecast error +4.73%, runup +4.73%, drawdown -4.73%US.MRVL Median projection -0.54, forecast error +5.30%, runup +5.30%, drawdown -5.30%US.LRCX Median projection -0.34, forecast error +0.91%, runup +0.91%, drawdown -0.91%US.STZ Median projection -0.36, forecast error -0.96%, runup -0.96%, drawdown -0.96%US.JBL Median projection -0.41, forecast error +2.23%, runup +2.23%, drawdown -2.23%US.DELL Median projection -0.15, forecast error +1.89%, runup +1.89%, drawdown -1.89%US.SNDK Median projection -0.25, forecast error -3.22%, runup -3.22%, drawdown -3.22%US.BLK Median projection 0.02, forecast error +0.11%, runup +0.11%, drawdown -0.11%US.JBL Median projection -0.11, forecast error +1.66%, runup +1.66%, drawdown -1.66%US.BLK Median projection 0.1, forecast error -0.33%, runup -0.33%, drawdown -0.33%US.JBL Median projection 0.1, forecast error +5.04%, runup +5.04%, drawdown -5.04%US.AMZN Median projection -0.09, forecast error +0.71%, runup +0.71%, drawdown -0.71%US.A Median projection 0.06, forecast error +1.17%, runup +1.17%, drawdown -1.17%US.ORCL Median projection 0.2, forecast error +4.38%, runup +4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.HOOD Median projection 0.39, forecast error +4.14%, runup +4.14%, drawdown -4.14%US.DASH Median projection 0.05, forecast error +5.43%, runup +5.43%, drawdown -5.43%US.MSFT Median projection 0.16, forecast error +1.51%, runup +1.51%, drawdown -1.51%US.ALB Median projection 0.35, forecast error -8.33%, runup -8.33%, drawdown -8.33%US.CHRW Median projection 0.25, forecast error +0.87%, runup +0.87%, drawdown -0.87%US.AMD Median projection 0.35, forecast error +1.89%, runup +1.89%, drawdown -1.89%US.ON Median projection 0.33, forecast error +8.40%, runup +8.40%, drawdown -8.40%US.A Median projection 0.35, forecast error -1.50%, runup -1.50%, drawdown -1.50%US.JBL Median projection 0.89, forecast error +3.68%, runup +3.68%, drawdown -3.68%US.ADI Median projection 0.61, forecast error +2.07%, runup +2.07%, drawdown -2.07%US.EXPE Median projection 0.62, forecast error -1.09%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.ADI Median projection 0.73, forecast error +5.26%, runup +5.26%, drawdown -5.26%US.JBL Median projection 0.87, forecast error +1.63%, runup +1.63%, drawdown -1.63%US.STLD Median projection 0.54, forecast error +6.96%, runup +6.96%, drawdown -6.96%US.TGT Median projection 0.32, forecast error -0.33%, runup -0.33%, drawdown -0.33%US.NTAP Median projection 0.7, forecast error -3.46%, runup -3.46%, drawdown -3.46%US.HPQ Median projection 0.95, forecast error -7.11%, runup -7.11%, drawdown -7.11%US.STLD Median projection 0.7, forecast error +2.29%, runup +2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.NTRS Median projection 0.95, forecast error -5.45%, runup -5.45%, drawdown -5.45%US.STLD Median projection 0.41, forecast error -1.47%, runup -1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.GEV Median projection 0.56, forecast error -1.21%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.ISRG Median projection 0.32, forecast error -2.93%, runup -2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.MAS Median projection 0.59, forecast error -0.21%, runup -0.21%, drawdown -0.21%US.TXN Median projection 0.6, forecast error -6.70%, runup -6.70%, drawdown -6.70%US.WST Median projection 0.22, forecast error -5.89%, runup -5.89%, drawdown -5.89%US.DOV Median projection 0.23, forecast error -1.99%, runup -1.99%, drawdown -1.99%US.CSX Median projection 0.37, forecast error -2.43%, runup -2.43%, drawdown -2.43%US.QCOM Median projection 0.81, forecast error +3.99%, runup +3.99%, drawdown -3.99%US.BKR Median projection 0.59, forecast error -0.78%, runup -0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.AMD Median projection 1.15, forecast error -4.23%, runup -4.23%, drawdown -4.23%US.SNPS Median projection 1.06, forecast error -4.97%, runup -4.97%, drawdown -4.97%US.SNDK Median projection 1.15, forecast error +1.31%, runup +1.31%, drawdown -1.31%US.CNC Median projection 0.24, forecast error +23.19%, runup +23.19%, drawdown -23.19%US.ELV Median projection 0.33, forecast error +5.37%, runup +5.37%, drawdown -5.37%US.NVDA Median projection 0.74, forecast error -8.61%, runup -8.61%, drawdown -8.61%US.ESS Median projection 0.14, forecast error -1.83%, runup -1.83%, drawdown -1.83%US.EQR Median projection 0.14, forecast error -0.11%, runup -0.11%, drawdown -0.11%US.CNC Median projection 0.39, forecast error +7.22%, runup +7.22%, drawdown -7.22%US.AVB Median projection 0.01, forecast error -0.04%, runup -0.04%, drawdown -0.04%US.EQR Median projection 0.12, forecast error -0.41%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.GNRC Median projection 0.34, forecast error +1.30%, runup +1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.NXPI Median projection 0.78, forecast error -0.26%, runup -0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.CNC Median projection 0.44, forecast error -1.22%, runup -1.22%, drawdown -1.22%US.CAT Median projection 0.09, forecast error +1.54%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.PWR Median projection 0.09, forecast error +5.93%, runup +5.93%, drawdown -5.93%US.GOOGL Median projection 0.27, forecast error +0.67%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.QCOM Median projection 0.46, forecast error +3.42%, runup +3.42%, drawdown -3.42%US.SNDK Median projection 0.72, forecast error +18.07%, runup +18.07%, drawdown -18.07%US.STX Median projection 0.86, forecast error +7.32%, runup +7.32%, drawdown -7.32%US.PWR Median projection 0.14, forecast error +5.66%, runup +5.66%, drawdown -5.66%US.FRT Median projection 0.28, forecast error +0.98%, runup +0.98%, drawdown -0.98%US.PWR Median projection 0.22, forecast error -1.09%, runup -1.09%, drawdown -1.09%US.ADM Median projection 0.44, forecast error +1.21%, runup +1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.CBOE Median projection 0.56, forecast error -0.64%, runup -0.64%, drawdown -0.64%US.TSN Median projection 0.4, forecast error -1.58%, runup -1.58%, drawdown -1.58%US.J Median projection 0.2, forecast error -13.47%, runup -13.47%, drawdown -13.47%US.DD Median projection 0.29, forecast error +0.77%, runup +0.77%, drawdown -0.77%US.SWKS Median projection 0.94, forecast error -8.91%, runup -8.91%, drawdown -8.91%US.ADM Median projection 0.36, forecast error -2.29%, runup -2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.DVA Median projection 0.36, forecast error +2.24%, runup +2.24%, drawdown -2.24%US.JBL Median projection 0.71, forecast error -2.62%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.RVTY Median projection 0.36, forecast error -0.50%, runup -0.50%, drawdown -0.50%US.SMCI Median projection 1.09, forecast error -4.38%, runup -4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.FTNT Median projection 1.15, forecast error +4.31%, runup +4.31%, drawdown -4.31%US.HWM Median projection 0.26, forecast error -1.28%, runup -1.28%, drawdown -1.28%US.APP Median projection 1.19, forecast error -2.83%, runup -2.83%, drawdown -2.83%US.VTRS Median projection 0.32, forecast error -1.59%, runup -1.59%, drawdown -1.59% Bucket avg Median projection -0.4, forecast error +3.52%, n 31Bucket avg Median projection 0.4, forecast error +0.35%, n 89 Corr -0.28 R² 7.9% n 120 Median projection return Actual - median

X = Median projection return. Y = actual - median. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +1.17%

DOE ranking

Ranked by a composite DOE score: lower median/mean absolute error, lower bias, enough anchors, and better IQR coverage.

Rank Horizon n Median abs Mean abs Bias Inside P25/P75 Anchors DOE score
#1 3D 500 2.52% 3.78% +1.17% 50.8% 120 2.632
#2 3D 120 2.59% 3.83% +1.20% 55.8% 120 2.676
#3 3D 320 2.65% 3.8% +1.18% 50.8% 120 2.705
#4 3D 240 2.71% 3.78% +1.14% 52.5% 120 2.718
#5 3D 160 2.67% 3.83% +1.19% 51.7% 120 2.725
#6 3D 80 2.59% 3.95% +1.33% 52.5% 120 2.746
#7 3D 40 2.84% 3.99% +1.39% 49.2% 120 2.902
#8 5D 320 3.51% 5.45% +2.65% 50.9% 112 3.933
#9 5D 240 3.52% 5.48% +2.66% 52.7% 112 3.945
#10 5D 500 3.66% 5.42% +2.66% 49.1% 112 4.003
#11 5D 160 3.67% 5.65% +2.83% 48.2% 112 4.117
#12 5D 120 3.76% 5.71% +2.88% 49.1% 112 4.188
#13 5D 80 3.73% 5.86% +3.07% 49.1% 112 4.254
#14 5D 40 3.99% 6.02% +3.26% 39.3% 112 4.493
#15 10D 500 6.58% 9.74% +6.15% 41.3% 92 7.518
#16 10D 320 6.59% 9.83% +6.02% 44.6% 92 7.527
#17 10D 160 6.71% 10.13% +5.95% 45.7% 92 7.679
#18 10D 240 6.82% 9.98% +6.00% 43.5% 92 7.694
#19 10D 120 7.07% 10.25% +5.93% 43.5% 92 7.903
#20 10D 80 6.97% 10.57% +6.05% 40.2% 92 7.992
#21 10D 40 7.45% 10.71% +6.27% 37% 92 8.322
#22 15D 120 9.74% 14.03% +9.08% 31.9% 72 11.063
#23 15D 40 9.52% 14.51% +8.79% 27.8% 72 11.088
#24 15D 80 9.8% 14.25% +8.96% 29.2% 72 11.158
#25 15D 160 10.31% 13.97% +9.17% 30.6% 72 11.344
#26 15D 240 10.52% 13.75% +9.08% 27.8% 72 11.365
#27 15D 320 10.81% 13.67% +9.04% 30.6% 72 11.469
#28 15D 500 11.41% 13.6% +9.04% 30.6% 72 11.745
#29 20D 500 11.1% 18.57% +15.50% 17.3% 52 14.331
#30 20D 320 11.39% 18.75% +15.38% 21.2% 52 14.512